ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$OKLO

Oklo Inc. · NYSE · SIC 4911 · CIK 1849056 · revision 5 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Oklo develops advanced fission powerhouses, fuel capabilities and isotope businesses. Acquired engineering and manufacturing operations already produce limited revenue, while commercial electricity remains a later deployment objective. Program spending, procurement, regulatory milestones and funding determine the path to commercial scale.

Three drivers

  1. Engineering demand and isotope customer qualification
  2. Powerhouse approvals, fuel readiness and construction schedule
  3. Expensed development, cash PP&E and financing dilution

Thesis

Our view

Groves validates a technical milestone while the investment still depends on converting capital and approvals into commercial facilities. Current liquidity supports execution, but engineering revenue and treasury interest should be separated from future nuclear power economics.

What changes it

Track the updated cash-use ranges, capitalized versus expensed work, accepted engineering/isotope sales and Aurora deployment readiness.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)0.011.21
Gross profit ($M)
Operating income ($M)-12.32-15.4†3-17.94-28.05-36.32-57.1†3-51.24-73.25
Net income ($M)-10.06-12.3†7-9.88-24.78-29.76-41.4†7-33.18-48.58
EPS, diluted ($)-0.089-0.0710-0.1811-0.209-0.1910-0.2811
Diluted shares (M)122.112138.113140.114150.412170.313176.214
Cash ($M)91.81597.11690.117226.818410.019788.4181,594.1201,644.718
Long-term debt ($M)0.0210.721
Cash from operations ($M)-7.9†22-13.5†23-12.224-18.5†25-18.0†22-33.4†23-17.924-47.6†25
Capex ($M)0.1†260.1†270.3280.9†295.0†2626.9†2732.82894.1†29
Free cash flow ($M)-8.0†30-13.5†31-12.6†32-19.3†33-23.1†30-60.4†31-50.7†32-141.7†33

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q34.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q45.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q17.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q29.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Engineering revenue, deployment cash and the commercial-power boundary

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Model acquired engineering/manufacturing activity separately from isotope sales and future commercial power. Power sales are zero through 2027, consistent with the first-powerhouse 2028 target. Calculate operating earnings from gross contribution and program/corporate costs, then bridge noncash costs, investment interest and working capital to CFO. Base FY2026 CFO and cash PP&E match updated guidance midpoints. Track PP&E, acquisitions and other strategic investing separately from treasury purchases.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
revenueH1 / June 20261.21reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
operating incomeH1 / June 2026-124.17reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
cfoH1 / June 2026-65.46reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
capexH1 / June 2026126.90reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
H1 CFO less PP&EH1 2026-192.36derived. Before acquisitions and other strategic investing.
H1 cash after business investmentH1 2026-234.60derived. Not a change in cash balance, which includes financing and treasury allocation.
FY2026 cash used in operating activities midpointFY2026135.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 cash PP&E purchases midpointFY2026450.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
June cash and marketable securities2026-06-303,006.29derived. Excludes restricted cash; not a promise all securities liquidate without price change.
restrictedH1 / June 202616.90reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
equity proceedsH1 / June 20261,851.94reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
September new ATM gross capacity2026-09-111,000.00reported. Capacity only; excludes assumed sales or net proceeds. Source · 2026-09-11
refusal liabilityH1 / June 202625.00reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
holdbacksH1 / June 20264.07reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07
contingent considerationH1 / June 20263.11reported. USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Source · 2026-08-07

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Commercial power revenue ($M)Isotope revenue ($M)Total revenue ($M)Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)Gross profit proxy ($M)Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Other strategic investing ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-58.68-228.68170.000.000.003.003.000.752.00-84.655.00-235.68
2026Q4-63.71-293.71230.000.000.003.003.000.751.00-91.975.00-299.71
2027Q1-72.76-292.76220.000.000.004.004.001.002.00-99.0410.00-304.76
2027Q2-81.17-321.17240.000.000.004.504.501.121.00-106.2310.00-332.17
FY2026-187.85-714.75526.900.000.007.217.211.9928.74-300.7926.50-769.98
FY2027-342.80-1,342.801,000.000.000.0019.0019.004.755.00-439.3340.00-1,387.80

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Commercial power revenue ($M)Isotope revenue ($M)Total revenue ($M)Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)Gross profit proxy ($M)Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Other strategic investing ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-33.00-183.00150.000.000.004.004.001.602.00-68.405.00-190.00
2026Q4-36.54-209.64173.100.000.005.005.002.001.00-74.005.00-215.64
2027Q1-43.77-213.78170.000.001.007.006.002.002.00-80.0010.00-225.78
2027Q2-50.11-240.11190.000.002.009.007.002.301.00-85.7010.00-251.11
FY2026-135.00-585.00450.000.000.0010.2110.214.0928.74-266.5726.50-640.24
FY2027-212.92-1,012.92800.000.0010.0040.0030.0011.005.00-353.0040.00-1,057.92

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Commercial power revenue ($M)Isotope revenue ($M)Total revenue ($M)Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)Gross profit proxy ($M)Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Other strategic investing ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-25.20-165.20140.000.000.005.005.002.402.00-64.105.00-172.20
2026Q4-28.04-178.04150.000.000.007.007.003.361.00-68.845.00-184.04
2027Q1-35.46-195.46160.000.002.0010.008.003.042.00-74.8610.00-207.46
2027Q2-41.20-216.20175.000.004.0014.0010.003.801.00-79.8010.00-227.20
FY2026-118.70-535.60416.900.000.0013.2113.216.2528.74-257.1126.50-590.84
FY2027-174.88-899.88725.000.0023.0067.0044.0019.125.00-326.6840.00-944.88
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
revenue
h1_revenue
H1 / June 2026 / shared1.21
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
engineering
h1_engineering
H1 / June 2026 / shared1.21
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
isotope
h1_isotope
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported revenue categories contain no commercial power or isotope sales; no receipts inferred from MOUs. Primary source · 2026-08-07
power
h1_power
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported revenue categories contain no commercial power or isotope sales; no receipts inferred from MOUs. Primary source · 2026-08-07
gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.49
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 / June 2026 / shared-124.17
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
cfo
h1_cfo
H1 / June 2026 / shared-65.46
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
capex
h1_capex
H1 / June 2026 / shared126.90
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
acquisition cash
h1_acquisition_cash
H1 / June 2026 / shared25.74
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
strategic investing
h1_strategic_investing
H1 / June 2026 / shared16.50
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
sbc
h1_sbc
H1 / June 2026 / shared29.94
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
da
h1_da
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.50
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
interest income
h1_interest_income
H1 / June 2026 / shared44.55
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
treasury purchases
h1_treasury_purchases
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,176.42
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
treasury maturities
h1_treasury_maturities
H1 / June 2026 / shared432.83
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
equity proceeds
h1_equity_proceeds
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,851.94
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
cash
cash
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,644.70
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
current securities
current_securities
H1 / June 2026 / shared820.45
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
long securities
long_securities
H1 / June 2026 / shared541.13
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
restricted
restricted
H1 / June 2026 / shared16.90
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
refusal liability
refusal_liability
H1 / June 2026 / shared25.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
holdbacks
holdbacks
H1 / June 2026 / shared4.07
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
contingent consideration
contingent_consideration
H1 / June 2026 / shared3.11
USD_millions
reported: USD millions from Q2 financial statements; securities are financial assets, not project capex. Primary source · 2026-08-07
H1 CFO less PP&E
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared-192.36
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and other strategic investing. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 acquisition and other investing
h1_nonppe_investing
H1 2026 / shared42.24
USD_millions
derived: Treasury purchases/maturities are excluded. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, h1_strategic_investing).
H1 cash after business investment
h1_cash_after_investing
H1 2026 / shared-234.60
USD_millions
derived: Not a change in cash balance, which includes financing and treasury allocation. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_nonppe_investing).
June cash and marketable securities
liquid_assets
2026-06-30 / shared3,006.29
USD_millions
derived: Excludes restricted cash; not a promise all securities liquidate without price change. Formula: sum(cash, current_securities, long_securities).
FY2026 cash used in operating activities low
fy26_cfo_use_low
FY2026 / shared120.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-07
FY2026 cash used in operating activities high
fy26_cfo_use_high
FY2026 / shared150.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-07
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 cash used in operating activities endpoint sum
fy26_cfo_use_sum
FY2026 / shared270.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_cfo_use_low, fy26_cfo_use_high).
FY2026 cash used in operating activities midpoint
fy26_cfo_use
FY2026 / shared135.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_cfo_use_sum, two).
FY2026 cash PP&E purchases low
fy26_ppe_low
FY2026 / shared400.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-07
FY2026 cash PP&E purchases high
fy26_ppe_high
FY2026 / shared500.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-07
FY2026 cash PP&E purchases endpoint sum
fy26_ppe_sum
FY2026 / shared900.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_ppe_low, fy26_ppe_high).
FY2026 cash PP&E purchases midpoint
fy26_ppe
FY2026 / shared450.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_ppe_sum, two).
September new ATM gross capacity
atm_capacity
2026-09-11 / shared1,000.00
USD_millions
reported: Capacity only; excludes assumed sales or net proceeds. Primary source · 2026-09-11
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2026q3_engineering_activity
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2026q3_engineering_realization
2026Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2026q3_engineering
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_engineering_activity, downside_2026q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2026q3_isotope
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2026q3_power
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_engineering, downside_2026q3_isotope, downside_2026q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2026q3_engineering_margin
2026Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2026q3_engineering_gross
2026Q3 / downside0.75
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_engineering, downside_2026q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2026q3_isotope_margin
2026Q3 / downside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2026q3_isotope_gross
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_isotope, downside_2026q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside0.75
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_engineering_gross, downside_2026q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2026q3_capitalization_shift
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2026q3_gross_operating_cost
2026Q3 / downside85.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / downside85.40
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_operating_cost, downside_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-84.65
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2026q3_average_liquidity
2026Q3 / downside2,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2026q3_cash_yield
2026Q3 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / downside17.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_average_liquidity, downside_2026q3_cash_yield, downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2026q3_cash_before_working
2026Q3 / downside-48.15
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / downside10.53
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside-58.68
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_working, downside_2026q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2026q3_underlying_capex
2026Q3 / downside170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside170.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_underlying_capex, downside_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-228.68
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2026q3_strategic_investing
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2026q3_nonppe_investing
2026Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / downside-235.68
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2026q4_engineering_activity
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2026q4_engineering_realization
2026Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2026q4_engineering
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_engineering_activity, downside_2026q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2026q4_isotope
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2026q4_power
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_engineering, downside_2026q4_isotope, downside_2026q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2026q4_engineering_margin
2026Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2026q4_engineering_gross
2026Q4 / downside0.75
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_engineering, downside_2026q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2026q4_isotope_margin
2026Q4 / downside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2026q4_isotope_gross
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_isotope, downside_2026q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside0.75
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_engineering_gross, downside_2026q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2026q4_capitalization_shift
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2026q4_gross_operating_cost
2026Q4 / downside92.72
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / downside92.72
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_operating_cost, downside_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-91.97
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2026q4_average_liquidity
2026Q4 / downside2,670.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2026q4_cash_yield
2026Q4 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / downside16.69
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_average_liquidity, downside_2026q4_cash_yield, downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2026q4_cash_before_working
2026Q4 / downside-52.78
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / downside10.92
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside-63.71
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_working, downside_2026q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2026q4_underlying_capex
2026Q4 / downside230.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside230.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_underlying_capex, downside_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-293.71
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2026q4_strategic_investing
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2026q4_nonppe_investing
2026Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / downside-299.71
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2027q1_engineering_activity
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2027q1_engineering_realization
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2027q1_engineering
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_engineering_activity, downside_2027q1_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2027q1_isotope
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2027q1_power
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_engineering, downside_2027q1_isotope, downside_2027q1_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2027q1_engineering_margin
2027Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2027q1_engineering_gross
2027Q1 / downside1.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_engineering, downside_2027q1_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2027q1_isotope_margin
2027Q1 / downside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2027q1_isotope_gross
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_isotope, downside_2027q1_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside1.00
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_engineering_gross, downside_2027q1_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2027q1_capitalization_shift
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2027q1_gross_operating_cost
2027Q1 / downside100.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / downside100.04
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_operating_cost, downside_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-99.04
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2027q1_average_liquidity
2027Q1 / downside2,540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2027q1_cash_yield
2027Q1 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / downside15.88
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_average_liquidity, downside_2027q1_cash_yield, downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2027q1_cash_before_working
2027Q1 / downside-57.16
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / downside15.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-72.76
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_working, downside_2027q1_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2027q1_underlying_capex
2027Q1 / downside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside220.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_underlying_capex, downside_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-292.76
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2027q1_strategic_investing
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2027q1_nonppe_investing
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q1_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / downside-304.76
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2027q2_engineering_activity
2027Q2 / downside4.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2027q2_engineering_realization
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2027q2_engineering
2027Q2 / downside4.50
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_engineering_activity, downside_2027q2_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2027q2_isotope
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2027q2_power
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside4.50
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_engineering, downside_2027q2_isotope, downside_2027q2_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2027q2_engineering_margin
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2027q2_engineering_gross
2027Q2 / downside1.12
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_engineering, downside_2027q2_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2027q2_isotope_margin
2027Q2 / downside-25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2027q2_isotope_gross
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_isotope, downside_2027q2_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside1.12
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_engineering_gross, downside_2027q2_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2027q2_capitalization_shift
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2027q2_gross_operating_cost
2027Q2 / downside107.36
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / downside107.36
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_operating_cost, downside_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-106.23
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2027q2_average_liquidity
2027Q2 / downside2,410.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2027q2_cash_yield
2027Q2 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / downside15.06
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_average_liquidity, downside_2027q2_cash_yield, downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2027q2_cash_before_working
2027Q2 / downside-61.67
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / downside19.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-81.17
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_working, downside_2027q2_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2027q2_underlying_capex
2027Q2 / downside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside240.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_underlying_capex, downside_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-321.17
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2027q2_strategic_investing
2027Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2027q2_nonppe_investing
2027Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / downside-332.17
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2027q3_engineering_activity
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2027q3_engineering_realization
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2027q3_engineering
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_engineering_activity, downside_2027q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2027q3_isotope
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2027q3_power
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_engineering, downside_2027q3_isotope, downside_2027q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2027q3_engineering_margin
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2027q3_engineering_gross
2027Q3 / downside1.25
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_engineering, downside_2027q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2027q3_isotope_margin
2027Q3 / downside-10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2027q3_isotope_gross
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_isotope, downside_2027q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside1.25
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_engineering_gross, downside_2027q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2027q3_capitalization_shift
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2027q3_gross_operating_cost
2027Q3 / downside114.68
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / downside114.68
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_operating_cost, downside_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-113.43
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2027q3_average_liquidity
2027Q3 / downside2,280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2027q3_cash_yield
2027Q3 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / downside14.25
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_average_liquidity, downside_2027q3_cash_yield, downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2027q3_cash_before_working
2027Q3 / downside-66.18
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / downside23.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-89.58
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_working, downside_2027q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2027q3_underlying_capex
2027Q3 / downside260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside260.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_underlying_capex, downside_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-349.58
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2027q3_strategic_investing
2027Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2027q3_nonppe_investing
2027Q3 / downside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / downside-360.58
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
downside_2027q4_engineering_activity
2027Q4 / downside5.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
downside_2027q4_engineering_realization
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
downside_2027q4_engineering
2027Q4 / downside5.50
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_engineering_activity, downside_2027q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
downside_2027q4_isotope
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
downside_2027q4_power
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside5.50
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_engineering, downside_2027q4_isotope, downside_2027q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
downside_2027q4_engineering_margin
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
downside_2027q4_engineering_gross
2027Q4 / downside1.38
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_engineering, downside_2027q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
downside_2027q4_isotope_margin
2027Q4 / downside5.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
downside_2027q4_isotope_gross
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_isotope, downside_2027q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside1.38
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_engineering_gross, downside_2027q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
downside_2027q4_capitalization_shift
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
downside_2027q4_gross_operating_cost
2027Q4 / downside122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
downside_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / downside122.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_operating_cost, downside_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside-120.62
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
downside_2027q4_average_liquidity
2027Q4 / downside2,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
downside_2027q4_cash_yield
2027Q4 / downside2.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
downside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / downside13.44
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_average_liquidity, downside_2027q4_cash_yield, downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside9.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
downside_2027q4_cash_before_working
2027Q4 / downside-70.69
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / downside28.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-99.29
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_working, downside_2027q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
downside_2027q4_underlying_capex
2027Q4 / downside280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside280.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_underlying_capex, downside_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-379.29
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
downside_2027q4_strategic_investing
2027Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
downside_2027q4_nonppe_investing
2027Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / downside-390.29
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_nonppe_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside7.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_engineering
FY2026 / downside7.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_engineering, downside_2026q3_engineering, downside_2026q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_isotope
FY2026 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_isotope, downside_2026q3_isotope, downside_2026q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_power
FY2026 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_power, downside_2026q3_power, downside_2026q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside1.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-300.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside-187.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside526.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-714.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / downside28.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
downside_fy2026_strategic_investing
FY2026 / downside26.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_investing, downside_2026q3_strategic_investing, downside_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / downside-769.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside19.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_engineering
FY2027 / downside19.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_engineering, downside_2027q2_engineering, downside_2027q3_engineering, downside_2027q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_isotope
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_isotope, downside_2027q2_isotope, downside_2027q3_isotope, downside_2027q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_power
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_power, downside_2027q2_power, downside_2027q3_power, downside_2027q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside4.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-439.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-342.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside1,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-1,342.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / downside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
downside_fy2027_strategic_investing
FY2027 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_strategic_investing, downside_2027q2_strategic_investing, downside_2027q3_strategic_investing, downside_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / downside-1,387.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2026q3_engineering_activity
2026Q3 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2026q3_engineering_realization
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2026q3_engineering
2026Q3 / base4.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_engineering_activity, base_2026q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2026q3_isotope
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2026q3_power
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base4.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_engineering, base_2026q3_isotope, base_2026q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2026q3_engineering_margin
2026Q3 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2026q3_engineering_gross
2026Q3 / base1.60
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_engineering, base_2026q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2026q3_isotope_margin
2026Q3 / base-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2026q3_isotope_gross
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_isotope, base_2026q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base1.60
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_engineering_gross, base_2026q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2026q3_capitalization_shift
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2026q3_gross_operating_cost
2026Q3 / base70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / base70.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_operating_cost, base_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base-68.40
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2026q3_average_liquidity
2026Q3 / base2,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2026q3_cash_yield
2026Q3 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / base24.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_average_liquidity, base_2026q3_cash_yield, base_2026q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2026q3_cash_before_working
2026Q3 / base-24.90
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / base8.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base-33.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_working, base_2026q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2026q3_underlying_capex
2026Q3 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base150.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_underlying_capex, base_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-183.00
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2026q3_strategic_investing
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2026q3_nonppe_investing
2026Q3 / base7.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / base-190.00
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2026q4_engineering_activity
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2026q4_engineering_realization
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2026q4_engineering
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_engineering_activity, base_2026q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2026q4_isotope
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2026q4_power
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_engineering, base_2026q4_isotope, base_2026q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2026q4_engineering_margin
2026Q4 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2026q4_engineering_gross
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_engineering, base_2026q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2026q4_isotope_margin
2026Q4 / base-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2026q4_isotope_gross
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_isotope, base_2026q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_engineering_gross, base_2026q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2026q4_capitalization_shift
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2026q4_gross_operating_cost
2026Q4 / base76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / base76.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_operating_cost, base_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base-74.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2026q4_average_liquidity
2026Q4 / base2,670.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2026q4_cash_yield
2026Q4 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / base23.36
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_average_liquidity, base_2026q4_cash_yield, base_2026q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2026q4_cash_before_working
2026Q4 / base-28.14
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / base8.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base-36.54
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_working, base_2026q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2026q4_underlying_capex
2026Q4 / base173.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base173.10
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_underlying_capex, base_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base-209.64
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2026q4_strategic_investing
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2026q4_nonppe_investing
2026Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / base-215.64
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2027q1_engineering_activity
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2027q1_engineering_realization
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2027q1_engineering
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_engineering_activity, base_2027q1_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2027q1_isotope
2027Q1 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2027q1_power
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_engineering, base_2027q1_isotope, base_2027q1_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2027q1_engineering_margin
2027Q1 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2027q1_engineering_gross
2027Q1 / base2.40
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_engineering, base_2027q1_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2027q1_isotope_margin
2027Q1 / base-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2027q1_isotope_gross
2027Q1 / base-0.40
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_isotope, base_2027q1_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_engineering_gross, base_2027q1_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2027q1_capitalization_shift
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2027q1_gross_operating_cost
2027Q1 / base82.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_operating_cost, base_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base-80.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2027q1_average_liquidity
2027Q1 / base2,540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2027q1_cash_yield
2027Q1 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / base22.23
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_average_liquidity, base_2027q1_cash_yield, base_2027q1_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2027q1_cash_before_working
2027Q1 / base-31.77
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base-43.77
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_working, base_2027q1_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2027q1_underlying_capex
2027Q1 / base170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base170.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_underlying_capex, base_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-213.78
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2027q1_strategic_investing
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2027q1_nonppe_investing
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q1_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / base-225.78
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2027q2_engineering_activity
2027Q2 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2027q2_engineering_realization
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2027q2_engineering
2027Q2 / base7.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_engineering_activity, base_2027q2_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2027q2_isotope
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2027q2_power
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base9.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_engineering, base_2027q2_isotope, base_2027q2_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2027q2_engineering_margin
2027Q2 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2027q2_engineering_gross
2027Q2 / base2.80
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_engineering, base_2027q2_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2027q2_isotope_margin
2027Q2 / base-25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2027q2_isotope_gross
2027Q2 / base-0.50
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_isotope, base_2027q2_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base2.30
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_engineering_gross, base_2027q2_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2027q2_capitalization_shift
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2027q2_gross_operating_cost
2027Q2 / base88.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / base88.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_operating_cost, base_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base-85.70
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2027q2_average_liquidity
2027Q2 / base2,410.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2027q2_cash_yield
2027Q2 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / base21.09
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_average_liquidity, base_2027q2_cash_yield, base_2027q2_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2027q2_cash_before_working
2027Q2 / base-35.11
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base-50.11
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_working, base_2027q2_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2027q2_underlying_capex
2027Q2 / base190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base190.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_underlying_capex, base_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-240.11
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2027q2_strategic_investing
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2027q2_nonppe_investing
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / base-251.11
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2027q3_engineering_activity
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2027q3_engineering_realization
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2027q3_engineering
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_engineering_activity, base_2027q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2027q3_isotope
2027Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2027q3_power
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_engineering, base_2027q3_isotope, base_2027q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2027q3_engineering_margin
2027Q3 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2027q3_engineering_gross
2027Q3 / base3.20
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_engineering, base_2027q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2027q3_isotope_margin
2027Q3 / base-10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2027q3_isotope_gross
2027Q3 / base-0.30
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_isotope, base_2027q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base2.90
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_engineering_gross, base_2027q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2027q3_capitalization_shift
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2027q3_gross_operating_cost
2027Q3 / base94.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / base94.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_operating_cost, base_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base-91.10
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2027q3_average_liquidity
2027Q3 / base2,280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2027q3_cash_yield
2027Q3 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / base19.95
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_average_liquidity, base_2027q3_cash_yield, base_2027q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2027q3_cash_before_working
2027Q3 / base-38.15
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base-56.15
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_working, base_2027q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2027q3_underlying_capex
2027Q3 / base210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_underlying_capex, base_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-266.15
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2027q3_strategic_investing
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2027q3_nonppe_investing
2027Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / base-277.15
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
base_2027q4_engineering_activity
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
base_2027q4_engineering_realization
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
base_2027q4_engineering
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_engineering_activity, base_2027q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
base_2027q4_isotope
2027Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
base_2027q4_power
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base13.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_engineering, base_2027q4_isotope, base_2027q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
base_2027q4_engineering_margin
2027Q4 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
base_2027q4_engineering_gross
2027Q4 / base3.60
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_engineering, base_2027q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
base_2027q4_isotope_margin
2027Q4 / base5.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
base_2027q4_isotope_gross
2027Q4 / base0.20
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_isotope, base_2027q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base3.80
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_engineering_gross, base_2027q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
base_2027q4_capitalization_shift
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
base_2027q4_gross_operating_cost
2027Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
base_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_operating_cost, base_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base-96.20
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
base_2027q4_average_liquidity
2027Q4 / base2,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
base_2027q4_cash_yield
2027Q4 / base3.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
base_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
base_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / base18.81
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_average_liquidity, base_2027q4_cash_yield, base_2027q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base9.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
base_2027q4_cash_before_working
2027Q4 / base-40.89
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base-62.89
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_working, base_2027q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
base_2027q4_underlying_capex
2027Q4 / base230.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base230.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_underlying_capex, base_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-292.89
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
base_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
base_2027q4_strategic_investing
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
base_2027q4_nonppe_investing
2027Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / base-303.89
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_nonppe_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base10.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_engineering
FY2026 / base10.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_engineering, base_2026q3_engineering, base_2026q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_isotope
FY2026 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_isotope, base_2026q3_isotope, base_2026q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_power
FY2026 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_power, base_2026q3_power, base_2026q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base4.09
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base-266.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base-135.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base-585.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
base_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / base28.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
base_fy2026_strategic_investing
FY2026 / base26.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_investing, base_2026q3_strategic_investing, base_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / base-640.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, base_2026q3_cash_after_investing, base_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_engineering
FY2027 / base30.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_engineering, base_2027q2_engineering, base_2027q3_engineering, base_2027q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_isotope
FY2027 / base10.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_isotope, base_2027q2_isotope, base_2027q3_isotope, base_2027q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_power
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_power, base_2027q2_power, base_2027q3_power, base_2027q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base-353.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base-212.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base800.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-1,012.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
base_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / base5.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
base_fy2027_strategic_investing
FY2027 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_strategic_investing, base_2027q2_strategic_investing, base_2027q3_strategic_investing, base_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / base-1,057.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investing, base_2027q2_cash_after_investing, base_2027q3_cash_after_investing, base_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2026q3_engineering_activity
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2026q3_engineering_realization
2026Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2026q3_engineering
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_engineering_activity, upside_2026q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2026q3_isotope
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2026q3_power
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_engineering, upside_2026q3_isotope, upside_2026q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2026q3_engineering_margin
2026Q3 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2026q3_engineering_gross
2026Q3 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_engineering, upside_2026q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2026q3_isotope_margin
2026Q3 / upside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2026q3_isotope_gross
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_isotope, upside_2026q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_engineering_gross, upside_2026q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2026q3_capitalization_shift
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2026q3_gross_operating_cost
2026Q3 / upside66.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / upside66.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_operating_cost, upside_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside-64.10
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2026q3_average_liquidity
2026Q3 / upside2,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2026q3_cash_yield
2026Q3 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_average_liquidity, upside_2026q3_cash_yield, upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2026q3_cash_before_working
2026Q3 / upside-17.10
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / upside8.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside-25.20
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_working, upside_2026q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2026q3_underlying_capex
2026Q3 / upside140.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside140.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_underlying_capex, upside_2026q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside-165.20
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2026q3_strategic_investing
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2026q3_nonppe_investing
2026Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / upside-172.20
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2026q4_engineering_activity
2026Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2026q4_engineering_realization
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2026q4_engineering
2026Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_engineering_activity, upside_2026q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2026q4_isotope
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2026q4_power
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_engineering, upside_2026q4_isotope, upside_2026q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2026q4_engineering_margin
2026Q4 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2026q4_engineering_gross
2026Q4 / upside3.36
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_engineering, upside_2026q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2026q4_isotope_margin
2026Q4 / upside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2026q4_isotope_gross
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_isotope, upside_2026q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside3.36
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_engineering_gross, upside_2026q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2026q4_capitalization_shift
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2026q4_gross_operating_cost
2026Q4 / upside72.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / upside72.20
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_operating_cost, upside_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside-68.84
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2026q4_average_liquidity
2026Q4 / upside2,670.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2026q4_cash_yield
2026Q4 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / upside26.70
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_average_liquidity, upside_2026q4_cash_yield, upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2026q4_cash_before_working
2026Q4 / upside-19.64
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / upside8.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside-28.04
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_working, upside_2026q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2026q4_underlying_capex
2026Q4 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_underlying_capex, upside_2026q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside-178.04
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2026q4_strategic_investing
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2026q4_nonppe_investing
2026Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / upside-184.04
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2027q1_engineering_activity
2027Q1 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2027q1_engineering_realization
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2027q1_engineering
2027Q1 / upside8.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_engineering_activity, upside_2027q1_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2027q1_isotope
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2027q1_power
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_engineering, upside_2027q1_isotope, upside_2027q1_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2027q1_engineering_margin
2027Q1 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2027q1_engineering_gross
2027Q1 / upside3.84
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_engineering, upside_2027q1_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2027q1_isotope_margin
2027Q1 / upside-40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2027q1_isotope_gross
2027Q1 / upside-0.80
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_isotope, upside_2027q1_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside3.04
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_engineering_gross, upside_2027q1_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2027q1_capitalization_shift
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2027q1_gross_operating_cost
2027Q1 / upside77.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / upside77.90
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_operating_cost, upside_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside-74.86
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2027q1_average_liquidity
2027Q1 / upside2,540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2027q1_cash_yield
2027Q1 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / upside25.40
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_average_liquidity, upside_2027q1_cash_yield, upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2027q1_cash_before_working
2027Q1 / upside-23.46
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside-35.46
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_working, upside_2027q1_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2027q1_underlying_capex
2027Q1 / upside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside160.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_underlying_capex, upside_2027q1_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside-195.46
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2027q1_strategic_investing
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2027q1_nonppe_investing
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q1_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / upside-207.46
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2027q2_engineering_activity
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2027q2_engineering_realization
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2027q2_engineering
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_engineering_activity, upside_2027q2_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2027q2_isotope
2027Q2 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2027q2_power
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_engineering, upside_2027q2_isotope, upside_2027q2_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2027q2_engineering_margin
2027Q2 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2027q2_engineering_gross
2027Q2 / upside4.80
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_engineering, upside_2027q2_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2027q2_isotope_margin
2027Q2 / upside-25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2027q2_isotope_gross
2027Q2 / upside-1.00
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_isotope, upside_2027q2_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside3.80
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_engineering_gross, upside_2027q2_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2027q2_capitalization_shift
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2027q2_gross_operating_cost
2027Q2 / upside83.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / upside83.60
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_operating_cost, upside_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside-79.80
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2027q2_average_liquidity
2027Q2 / upside2,410.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2027q2_cash_yield
2027Q2 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / upside24.10
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_average_liquidity, upside_2027q2_cash_yield, upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2027q2_cash_before_working
2027Q2 / upside-26.20
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside-41.20
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_working, upside_2027q2_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2027q2_underlying_capex
2027Q2 / upside175.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside175.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_underlying_capex, upside_2027q2_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside-216.20
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2027q2_strategic_investing
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2027q2_nonppe_investing
2027Q2 / upside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / upside-227.20
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2027q3_engineering_activity
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2027q3_engineering_realization
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2027q3_engineering
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_engineering_activity, upside_2027q3_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2027q3_isotope
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2027q3_power
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside19.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_engineering, upside_2027q3_isotope, upside_2027q3_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2027q3_engineering_margin
2027Q3 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2027q3_engineering_gross
2027Q3 / upside5.76
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_engineering, upside_2027q3_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2027q3_isotope_margin
2027Q3 / upside-10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2027q3_isotope_gross
2027Q3 / upside-0.70
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_isotope, upside_2027q3_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside5.06
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_engineering_gross, upside_2027q3_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2027q3_capitalization_shift
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2027q3_gross_operating_cost
2027Q3 / upside89.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / upside89.30
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_operating_cost, upside_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside-84.24
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2027q3_average_liquidity
2027Q3 / upside2,280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2027q3_cash_yield
2027Q3 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / upside22.80
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_average_liquidity, upside_2027q3_cash_yield, upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2027q3_cash_before_working
2027Q3 / upside-28.44
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside-46.44
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_working, upside_2027q3_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2027q3_underlying_capex
2027Q3 / upside190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside190.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_underlying_capex, upside_2027q3_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside-236.44
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2027q3_strategic_investing
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2027q3_nonppe_investing
2027Q3 / upside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / upside-247.44
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_nonppe_investing).
Engineering activity reference revenue
upside_2027q4_engineering_activity
2027Q4 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering realization
upside_2027q4_engineering_realization
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering and manufacturing revenue
upside_2027q4_engineering
2027Q4 / upside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Acquired operations contribute full quarters; this is not nuclear electricity revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_engineering_activity, upside_2027q4_engineering_realization).
Commercial isotope revenue
upside_2027q4_isotope
2027Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk scenario only; production, handling, acceptance and customer qualification remain conditions.
Commercial electricity revenue
upside_2027q4_power
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First-powerhouse target is 2028; no commercial power sales through this model horizon.
Total revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Technical milestones and nonbinding demand agreements create no additional sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_engineering, upside_2027q4_isotope, upside_2027q4_power).
Engineering gross margin
upside_2027q4_engineering_margin
2027Q4 / upside48.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Engineering gross contribution
upside_2027q4_engineering_gross
2027Q4 / upside6.72
USD_millions
derived: Independent project margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_engineering, upside_2027q4_engineering_margin).
Isotope early-ramp gross margin
upside_2027q4_isotope_margin
2027Q4 / upside5.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Isotope gross contribution
upside_2027q4_isotope_gross
2027Q4 / upside0.50
USD_millions
derived: Initial isotope ramp can lose money. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_isotope, upside_2027q4_isotope_margin).
Gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside7.22
USD_millions
derived: Power is zero in every case. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_engineering_gross, upside_2027q4_isotope_gross).
Expense shifted into cash PP&E
upside_2027q4_capitalization_shift
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Sensitivity only: positive reclassifies paid development cost from operating to investing, leaving combined cash unchanged.
Program and corporate expense before classification
upside_2027q4_gross_operating_cost
2027Q4 / upside95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating program and corporate expenses
upside_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / upside95.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes cost of revenues already in gross profit; includes SBC and D&A. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_operating_cost, upside_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside-87.78
USD_millions
derived: Independent of interest earned on equity-financed liquidity. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_operating_cost).
Average interest-earning liquidity
upside_2027q4_average_liquidity
2027Q4 / upside2,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Annual cash yield
upside_2027q4_cash_yield
2027Q4 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Year fraction
upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Investment cash interest
upside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / upside21.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumed average invested balance, not a complete cash balance forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_average_liquidity, upside_2027q4_cash_yield, upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction).
SBC addback
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization addback
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside9.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest
upside_2027q4_cash_before_working
2027Q4 / upside-29.78
USD_millions
derived: SBC remains an ownership cost even when added back to CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_interest_income).
Tax working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside-51.78
USD_millions
derived: Base annual midpoint is a calibration, not proof of cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_working, upside_2027q4_working_cash).
Underlying PP&E and project purchases
upside_2027q4_underlying_capex
2027Q4 / upside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside200.00
USD_millions
derived: Classification sensitivity offsets CFO one-for-one. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_underlying_capex, upside_2027q4_capitalization_shift).
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside-251.78
USD_millions
derived: Not cash available to shareholders of a pre-commercial development company. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Acquisition holdback and contingent cash
upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash-settlement allowance, not an announced new acquisition.
Other strategic investing
upside_2027q4_strategic_investing
2027Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition and other business investment
upside_2027q4_nonppe_investing
2027Q4 / upside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes transfers into treasury securities. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / upside-262.78
USD_millions
derived: No assumed ATM receipts or second collection of H1 equity proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_nonppe_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside13.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_engineering
FY2026 / upside13.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_engineering, upside_2026q3_engineering, upside_2026q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_isotope
FY2026 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_isotope, upside_2026q3_isotope, upside_2026q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_power
FY2026 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_power, upside_2026q3_power, upside_2026q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside-257.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside-118.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside416.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside-535.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / upside28.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
upside_fy2026_strategic_investing
FY2026 / upside26.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_investing, upside_2026q3_strategic_investing, upside_2026q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / upside-590.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Total revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside67.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Engineering and manufacturing revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_engineering
FY2027 / upside44.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_engineering, upside_2027q2_engineering, upside_2027q3_engineering, upside_2027q4_engineering).
Isotope revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_isotope
FY2027 / upside23.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_isotope, upside_2027q2_isotope, upside_2027q3_isotope, upside_2027q4_isotope).
Commercial power revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_power
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_power, upside_2027q2_power, upside_2027q3_power, upside_2027q4_power).
Gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside19.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside-326.68
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside-174.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside725.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside-899.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition/holdback cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Other strategic investing ($M)
upside_fy2027_strategic_investing
FY2027 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_strategic_investing, upside_2027q2_strategic_investing, upside_2027q3_strategic_investing, upside_2027q4_strategic_investing).
Cash after business investing ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / upside-944.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).

Model boundaries

Technical progress, limited current sales and the deployment cash bill

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can technical milestones become commercial assets within the required cash and regulatory envelope?

H1 revenue was $1.210M from engineering/manufacturing activity; operating loss was $124.2M. CFO was negative $65.5M and cash PP&E $126.9M. Acquisitions and other investing added $42.2M of business cash use. June cash and marketable securities totaled $3.006B, excluding $16.9M restricted cash. August guidance raised annual operating cash use to $120-150M and PP&E purchases to $400-500M. The base midpoint therefore implies $585M combined full-year operating and PP&E use before other investing. H1 equity proceeds of $1.852B are already reflected in liquidity. The September $1B ATM is capacity, not received funding. Groves achieved first criticality as a low-power test reactor; the filing targets the first powerhouse in 2028, so no power revenue is assumed through 2027.

The competing explanation

Technical progress can coexist with rising cash demands. Licensing, fuel availability, first-of-a-kind engineering and customer acceptance may delay commercial revenue beyond the spending schedule, while treasury income declines as capital is deployed.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Added updated cash guidance, engineering revenue, treasury separation and Groves/commercial-power distinction.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and peers quiet

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.5+0.1+2.351%
5 sessions-5.1+0.4+6.353%
10 sessions-7.2+0.2+9.151%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-05 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  2. [2] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  3. [3] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  4. [4] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  5. [5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  6. [6] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  7. [7] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  8. [8] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  9. [9] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  10. [10] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  11. [11] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  12. [12] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  13. [13] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  14. [14] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  15. [15] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-24-047875, 10-Q filed 2024-11-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  16. [16] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  17. [17] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-25-025166, 10-Q filed 2025-05-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  18. [18] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  21. [21] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  22. [22] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  23. [23] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  24. [24] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  25. [25] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  26. [26] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  27. [27] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  28. [28] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  29. [29] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  30. [30] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-051349, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  31. [31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-018698, 10-K filed 2026-03-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  32. [32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001849056-26-000037, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-17; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json
  33. [33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-054571, 10-Q filed 2026-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001849056.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-20T00:11:46.710926+00:00 · authored e1ef249c0098 · generated 4b7ed746a72e · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard