$NXT
Business
Nextpower, formerly Nextracker, supplies solar trackers and related structural, electrical and control technologies to utility-scale projects. EPC contractors are its main direct customers. Its expansion into storage and power conversion adds a larger share of plant spending but also integration and development work. Revenue depends on project progress and shipment timing; vendor manufacturing-credit rebates, domestic content and product mix affect gross profit. Contract assets, credit receivables and customer deposits separate accounting earnings from cash.
Three drivers
- Project timing and execution determine how contracted work becomes revenue.
- Domestic content, vendor-credit sharing and product mix drive gross profit.
- Expansion costs, acquisitions and working capital determine cash available to owners.
Thesis
Our view
The useful test is whether a profitable tracker business can fund a broader power platform without losing operating discipline. More products can deepen a customer relationship, but a larger addressable market is not evidence of earned margins. We would judge the expansion on incremental gross profit after the engineering and integration budget, then on cash collection. Backlog and product awards are evidence of demand, not a timetable for recognized revenue.
What changes it
Watch project delivery, vendor rebates versus eligible U.S. sales, operating expenses and cash collection together. Broad-platform sales with weaker unit economics, recurring overruns or persistent contract-asset growth would challenge the expansion case.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2025Q2 2024-09-27 | 2025Q3 2024-12-31 | 2025Q4 2025-03-31 | 2026Q1 2025-06-27 | 2026Q2 2025-09-26 | 2026Q3 2025-12-31 | 2026Q4 2026-03-31 | 2027Q1 2026-07-03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 635.61 | 679.42 | 924.3†3 | 864.34 | 905.31 | 909.42 | 880.5†3 | 935.24 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 224.85 | 240.96 | 305.7†7 | 281.78 | 292.95 | 288.16 | 297.4†7 | 335.98 |
| Operating income ($M) | 133.59 | 150.210 | 195.3†11 | 186.212 | 181.39 | 176.110 | 153.6†11 | 190.912 |
| Net income ($M) | 115.413 | 115.314 | 156.8†15 | 157.216 | 146.913 | 131.214 | 150.6†15 | 165.416 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | 0.7917 | 0.7918 | — | 1.0419 | 0.9717 | 0.8518 | — | 1.0719 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 149.120 | 149.021 | — | 150.922 | 152.020 | 153.921 | — | 155.122 |
| Cash ($M) | 561.923 | 693.524 | 766.125 | 743.426 | 845.327 | 952.628 | 1,095.029 | 1,213.929 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 140.530 | 138.831 | 0.032 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 153.8†33 | 143.8†34 | 237.3†35 | 81.336 | 186.9†33 | 123.3†34 | 171.4†35 | 121.136 |
| Capex ($M) | 12.0†37 | 8.9†38 | 10.1†39 | 11.340 | 15.5†37 | 4.7†38 | 17.8†39 | 15.940 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 141.8†41 | 134.9†42 | 227.2†43 | 70.1†44 | 171.4†41 | 118.5†42 | 153.6†43 | 105.2†44 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027Q2 | 1,027.6 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q3 | 1,127.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q4 | 1,160.2 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2028Q1 | 1,124.1 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Tracker execution, vendor credits and expansion costs
Start with the FY2027 revenue-guidance midpoint and vary project delivery. Estimate U.S. sales mix, vendor-credit yield and gross margin before those credits separately; subtract a GAAP operating-expense budget. Cash conversion is a separate assumption, not EBITDA. FY2027 includes the reported first quarter; remaining revenue, earnings and cash have separate quarterly allocations. FY2028 is a desk extension. All annual totals reconcile to the modeled quarters.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 Q1 Revenue | 2027Q1 | 935.17 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 GAAP operating income | 2027Q1 | 190.91 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 Operating cash flow | 2027Q1 | 121.06 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| 45X vendor credits in cost of sales | 2027Q1 | 103.31 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| Gross margin before vendor credits | 2027Q1 | 24.9% | derived. Analytical margin, not a company-defined non-GAAP measure. |
| FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint | FY2027 | 4,250.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint | FY2027 | 900.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Incremental power-conversion costs | FY2027 | 50.00 | management guidance. Included in the company outlook; do not subtract this twice. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Cash before July acquisitions | 2027Q1 | 1,213.90 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| Known July acquisition closing cash | July 2026 | 196.00 | derived. Cash purchase amounts, not the full purchase price or all subsequent uses. |
| Long-term TRA liability | 2027Q1 | 373.81 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| Total tax receivable agreement liability | 2027Q1 | 393.20 | reported. Rounded disclosed total including current and noncurrent TRA obligations, not ordinary debt. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| Combined contingent cash maximum for July deals | Acquisition terms | 199.50 | derived. Maximum disclosed dollars, subject to contingencies; Zimmermann euro commitments are separate. |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027Q2 | 24.08 | -6.04 | 30.11 | 922.20 | 237.58 | 59.31 |
| 2027Q3 | 29.43 | -2.57 | 31.99 | 1,011.44 | 260.57 | 65.05 |
| 2027Q4 | 35.67 | 3.67 | 31.99 | 1,041.19 | 268.23 | 66.96 |
| 2028Q1 | 20.10 | -9.80 | 29.90 | 899.30 | 230.22 | 46.22 |
| FY2027 | 210.23 | 100.23 | 110.00 | 3,910.00 | 1,102.23 | 382.23 |
| FY2028 | 100.48 | -29.52 | 130.00 | 3,910.00 | 1,000.96 | 200.96 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027Q2 | 98.43 | 77.91 | 20.51 | 1,027.60 | 321.97 | 149.90 |
| 2027Q3 | 120.30 | 98.51 | 21.79 | 1,127.04 | 353.12 | 164.40 |
| 2027Q4 | 145.82 | 124.02 | 21.79 | 1,160.19 | 363.51 | 169.24 |
| 2028Q1 | 125.12 | 103.27 | 21.85 | 1,124.12 | 365.00 | 179.85 |
| FY2027 | 485.60 | 405.60 | 80.00 | 4,250.00 | 1,374.45 | 674.45 |
| FY2028 | 625.58 | 530.58 | 95.00 | 4,887.50 | 1,586.97 | 781.97 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027Q2 | 174.03 | 155.12 | 18.91 | 1,119.82 | 395.21 | 220.04 |
| 2027Q3 | 212.70 | 192.61 | 20.09 | 1,228.19 | 433.46 | 241.34 |
| 2027Q4 | 257.82 | 237.73 | 20.09 | 1,264.32 | 446.21 | 248.44 |
| 2028Q1 | 219.44 | 198.74 | 20.70 | 1,307.41 | 475.90 | 280.40 |
| FY2027 | 765.62 | 690.62 | 75.00 | 4,547.50 | 1,610.72 | 900.72 |
| FY2028 | 1,097.20 | 1,007.20 | 90.00 | 5,684.38 | 2,069.11 | 1,219.11 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 Q1 Revenue q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / shared | 935.17 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 GAAP gross profit q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / shared | 335.85 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 GAAP operating income q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / shared | 190.91 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 Operating cash flow q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / shared | 121.06 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 Q1 Cash capex q1_capex | 2027Q1 / shared | 15.90 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| U.S. revenue q1_us | 2027Q1 / shared | 775.62 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| 45X vendor credits in cost of sales q1_vendor_credits | 2027Q1 / shared | 103.31 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Tariffs net of refunds q1_tariffs | 2027Q1 / shared | 3.92 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Cash before July acquisitions q1_cash | 2027Q1 / shared | 1,213.90 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Long-term TRA liability tra_liability | 2027Q1 / shared | 373.81 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Prevalon closing cash, net of acquired cash prevalon_cash | July 2026 / shared | 150.00 USD_millions | reported: Approximately $150M paid at closing; excludes stock consideration and contingent payments. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Apex/Zigor cash paid at closing apex_cash | July 2026 / shared | 46.00 USD_millions | reported: Closing cash only; excludes contingent cash consideration. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Known July acquisition closing cash july_closing_cash | July 2026 / shared | 196.00 USD_millions | derived: Cash purchase amounts, not the full purchase price or all subsequent uses. Formula: sum(prevalon_cash, apex_cash). |
| GAAP gross profit before vendor credits q1_core_gross | 2027Q1 / shared | 232.54 USD_millions | derived: Analytical bridge removes vendor credits; tariffs remain in the cost base. Formula: subtract(q1_gross_profit, q1_vendor_credits). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits q1_core_margin | 2027Q1 / shared | 24.9% ratio | derived: Analytical margin, not a company-defined non-GAAP measure. Formula: divide(q1_core_gross, q1_revenue). |
| FY2027 revenue guidance low fy27_revenue_guide_low | FY2027 / shared | 4,100.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 revenue guidance high fy27_revenue_guide_high | FY2027 / shared | 4,400.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| FY2027 revenue guidance endpoint sum fy27_revenue_guide_sum | FY2027 / shared | 8,500.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_revenue_guide_low, fy27_revenue_guide_high). |
| FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint fy27_revenue_guide | FY2027 / shared | 4,250.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_revenue_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance low fy27_ebitda_guide_low | FY2027 / shared | 870.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance high fy27_ebitda_guide_high | FY2027 / shared | 930.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance endpoint sum fy27_ebitda_guide_sum | FY2027 / shared | 1,800.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_ebitda_guide_low, fy27_ebitda_guide_high). |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint fy27_ebitda_guide | FY2027 / shared | 900.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_ebitda_guide_sum, two). |
| Incremental power-conversion costs expansion_cost_guide | FY2027 / shared | 50.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Included in the company outlook; do not subtract this twice. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Delivery factor downside_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / downside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 3,910.00 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, downside_fy2027_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share downside_fy2027_us_mix | FY2027 / downside | 78.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue downside_fy2027_credit_yield | FY2027 / downside | 10.5% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue downside_fy2027_us_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 3,049.80 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_fy2027_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits downside_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / downside | 320.23 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_us_revenue, downside_fy2027_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits downside_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits downside_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / downside | 782.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 1,102.23 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(downside_fy2027_core_gross, downside_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / downside | 720.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 382.23 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_fy2027_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income downside_fy2027_cash_conversion | FY2027 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 210.23 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_fy2027_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 110.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | 100.23 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_fy2027_capex). |
| Year-on-year revenue multiplier downside_fy2028_delivery | FY2028 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue downside_fy2028_revenue | FY2028 / downside | 3,910.00 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_fy2028_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share downside_fy2028_us_mix | FY2028 / downside | 76.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue downside_fy2028_credit_yield | FY2028 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue downside_fy2028_us_revenue | FY2028 / downside | 2,971.60 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_fy2028_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits downside_fy2028_credits | FY2028 / downside | 297.16 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_us_revenue, downside_fy2028_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits downside_fy2028_core_margin | FY2028 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits downside_fy2028_core_gross | FY2028 / downside | 703.80 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_fy2028_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_fy2028_gross_profit | FY2028 / downside | 1,000.96 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(downside_fy2028_core_gross, downside_fy2028_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_fy2028_opex | FY2028 / downside | 800.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income downside_fy2028_operating_income | FY2028 / downside | 200.96 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2028_gross_profit, downside_fy2028_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income downside_fy2028_cash_conversion | FY2028 / downside | 50.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow downside_fy2028_cfo | FY2028 / downside | 100.48 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_operating_income, downside_fy2028_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E downside_fy2028_capex | FY2028 / downside | 130.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex downside_fy2028_fcf | FY2028 / downside | -29.52 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2028_cfo, downside_fy2028_capex). |
| FY2027 remaining revenue downside_fy2027_remaining_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 2,974.83 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_revenue, q1_revenue). |
| FY2027 remaining gross_profit downside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 766.38 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, q1_gross_profit). |
| FY2027 remaining operating_income downside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 191.32 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_operating_income, q1_operating_income). |
| FY2027 remaining cfo downside_fy2027_remaining_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 89.17 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_cfo, q1_cfo). |
| FY2027 remaining capex downside_fy2027_remaining_capex | FY2027 / downside | 94.10 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_capex, q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year revenue share downside_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 922.20 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year gross_profit share downside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 237.58 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year operating_income share downside_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 59.31 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year cfo share downside_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 cfo downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 24.08 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year capex share downside_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 capex downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 30.11 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_capex, downside_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -6.04 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year revenue share downside_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,011.44 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share downside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 260.57 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year operating_income share downside_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 65.05 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year cfo share downside_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 33.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 cfo downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 29.43 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year capex share downside_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 capex downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 31.99 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_capex, downside_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -2.57 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year revenue share downside_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,041.19 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share downside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 268.23 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year operating_income share downside_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 66.96 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year cfo share downside_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 cfo downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.67 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year capex share downside_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 capex downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 31.99 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_remaining_capex, downside_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 3.67 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| 2028Q1 full-year revenue share downside_2028q1_revenue_weight | 2028Q1 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 revenue downside_2028q1_revenue | 2028Q1 / downside | 899.30 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_2028q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year gross_profit share downside_2028q1_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q1 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 gross_profit downside_2028q1_gross_profit | 2028Q1 / downside | 230.22 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_gross_profit, downside_2028q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year operating_income share downside_2028q1_operating_income_weight | 2028Q1 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 operating_income downside_2028q1_operating_income | 2028Q1 / downside | 46.22 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_operating_income, downside_2028q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year cfo share downside_2028q1_cfo_weight | 2028Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 cfo downside_2028q1_cfo | 2028Q1 / downside | 20.10 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_cfo, downside_2028q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year capex share downside_2028q1_capex_weight | 2028Q1 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 capex downside_2028q1_capex | 2028Q1 / downside | 29.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_capex, downside_2028q1_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q1 cash after capex downside_2028q1_fcf | 2028Q1 / downside | -9.80 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex). |
| 2028Q2 full-year revenue share downside_2028q2_revenue_weight | 2028Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 revenue downside_2028q2_revenue | 2028Q2 / downside | 977.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year gross_profit share downside_2028q2_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 gross_profit downside_2028q2_gross_profit | 2028Q2 / downside | 250.24 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year operating_income share downside_2028q2_operating_income_weight | 2028Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 operating_income downside_2028q2_operating_income | 2028Q2 / downside | 50.24 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year cfo share downside_2028q2_cfo_weight | 2028Q2 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 cfo downside_2028q2_cfo | 2028Q2 / downside | 24.12 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year capex share downside_2028q2_capex_weight | 2028Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 capex downside_2028q2_capex | 2028Q2 / downside | 32.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_capex, downside_2028q2_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q2 cash after capex downside_2028q2_fcf | 2028Q2 / downside | -8.38 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex). |
| 2028Q3 full-year revenue share downside_2028q3_revenue_weight | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 revenue downside_2028q3_revenue | 2028Q3 / downside | 1,016.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year gross_profit share downside_2028q3_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 gross_profit downside_2028q3_gross_profit | 2028Q3 / downside | 260.25 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year operating_income share downside_2028q3_operating_income_weight | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 operating_income downside_2028q3_operating_income | 2028Q3 / downside | 52.25 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year cfo share downside_2028q3_cfo_weight | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 cfo downside_2028q3_cfo | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.12 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year capex share downside_2028q3_capex_weight | 2028Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 capex downside_2028q3_capex | 2028Q3 / downside | 33.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_capex, downside_2028q3_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q3 cash after capex downside_2028q3_fcf | 2028Q3 / downside | -7.68 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex). |
| 2028Q4 full-year revenue share downside_2028q4_revenue_weight | 2028Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 revenue downside_2028q4_revenue | 2028Q4 / downside | 1,016.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year gross_profit share downside_2028q4_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 gross_profit downside_2028q4_gross_profit | 2028Q4 / downside | 260.25 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year operating_income share downside_2028q4_operating_income_weight | 2028Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 operating_income downside_2028q4_operating_income | 2028Q4 / downside | 52.25 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year cfo share downside_2028q4_cfo_weight | 2028Q4 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 cfo downside_2028q4_cfo | 2028Q4 / downside | 30.14 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year capex share downside_2028q4_capex_weight | 2028Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 capex downside_2028q4_capex | 2028Q4 / downside | 33.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2028_capex, downside_2028q4_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q4 cash after capex downside_2028q4_fcf | 2028Q4 / downside | -3.66 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex). |
| Delivery factor base_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 4,250.00 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, base_fy2027_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share base_fy2027_us_mix | FY2027 / base | 82.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue base_fy2027_credit_yield | FY2027 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue base_fy2027_us_revenue | FY2027 / base | 3,485.00 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_fy2027_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits base_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / base | 418.20 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_us_revenue, base_fy2027_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits base_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / base | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits base_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / base | 956.25 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 1,374.45 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(base_fy2027_core_gross, base_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / base | 700.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 674.45 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_fy2027_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income base_fy2027_cash_conversion | FY2027 / base | 72.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 485.60 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_fy2027_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 405.60 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_cfo, base_fy2027_capex). |
| Year-on-year revenue multiplier base_fy2028_delivery | FY2028 / base | 115.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue base_fy2028_revenue | FY2028 / base | 4,887.50 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_fy2028_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share base_fy2028_us_mix | FY2028 / base | 78.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue base_fy2028_credit_yield | FY2028 / base | 11.5% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue base_fy2028_us_revenue | FY2028 / base | 3,812.25 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_fy2028_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits base_fy2028_credits | FY2028 / base | 438.41 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_us_revenue, base_fy2028_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits base_fy2028_core_margin | FY2028 / base | 23.5% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits base_fy2028_core_gross | FY2028 / base | 1,148.56 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_fy2028_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_fy2028_gross_profit | FY2028 / base | 1,586.97 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(base_fy2028_core_gross, base_fy2028_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_fy2028_opex | FY2028 / base | 805.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income base_fy2028_operating_income | FY2028 / base | 781.97 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(base_fy2028_gross_profit, base_fy2028_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income base_fy2028_cash_conversion | FY2028 / base | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow base_fy2028_cfo | FY2028 / base | 625.58 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_operating_income, base_fy2028_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E base_fy2028_capex | FY2028 / base | 95.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex base_fy2028_fcf | FY2028 / base | 530.58 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(base_fy2028_cfo, base_fy2028_capex). |
| FY2027 remaining revenue base_fy2027_remaining_revenue | FY2027 / base | 3,314.83 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_revenue, q1_revenue). |
| FY2027 remaining gross_profit base_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 1,038.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_gross_profit, q1_gross_profit). |
| FY2027 remaining operating_income base_fy2027_remaining_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 483.54 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_operating_income, q1_operating_income). |
| FY2027 remaining cfo base_fy2027_remaining_cfo | FY2027 / base | 364.55 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_cfo, q1_cfo). |
| FY2027 remaining capex base_fy2027_remaining_capex | FY2027 / base | 64.10 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_capex, q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year revenue share base_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,027.60 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year gross_profit share base_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 321.97 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year operating_income share base_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 149.90 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year cfo share base_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 cfo base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 98.43 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year capex share base_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 capex base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 20.51 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_capex, base_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 77.91 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year revenue share base_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 1,127.04 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share base_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 353.12 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year operating_income share base_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 164.40 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year cfo share base_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 33.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 cfo base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 120.30 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year capex share base_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 capex base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 21.79 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_capex, base_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 98.51 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year revenue share base_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,160.19 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share base_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 363.51 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year operating_income share base_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 169.24 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year cfo share base_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 cfo base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 145.82 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year capex share base_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 capex base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 21.79 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_remaining_capex, base_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 124.02 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| 2028Q1 full-year revenue share base_2028q1_revenue_weight | 2028Q1 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 revenue base_2028q1_revenue | 2028Q1 / base | 1,124.12 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_2028q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year gross_profit share base_2028q1_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q1 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 gross_profit base_2028q1_gross_profit | 2028Q1 / base | 365.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_gross_profit, base_2028q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year operating_income share base_2028q1_operating_income_weight | 2028Q1 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 operating_income base_2028q1_operating_income | 2028Q1 / base | 179.85 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_operating_income, base_2028q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year cfo share base_2028q1_cfo_weight | 2028Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 cfo base_2028q1_cfo | 2028Q1 / base | 125.12 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_cfo, base_2028q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year capex share base_2028q1_capex_weight | 2028Q1 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 capex base_2028q1_capex | 2028Q1 / base | 21.85 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_capex, base_2028q1_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q1 cash after capex base_2028q1_fcf | 2028Q1 / base | 103.27 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex). |
| 2028Q2 full-year revenue share base_2028q2_revenue_weight | 2028Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 revenue base_2028q2_revenue | 2028Q2 / base | 1,221.88 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year gross_profit share base_2028q2_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 gross_profit base_2028q2_gross_profit | 2028Q2 / base | 396.74 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_gross_profit, base_2028q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year operating_income share base_2028q2_operating_income_weight | 2028Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 operating_income base_2028q2_operating_income | 2028Q2 / base | 195.49 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year cfo share base_2028q2_cfo_weight | 2028Q2 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 cfo base_2028q2_cfo | 2028Q2 / base | 150.14 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year capex share base_2028q2_capex_weight | 2028Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 capex base_2028q2_capex | 2028Q2 / base | 23.75 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_capex, base_2028q2_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q2 cash after capex base_2028q2_fcf | 2028Q2 / base | 126.39 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex). |
| 2028Q3 full-year revenue share base_2028q3_revenue_weight | 2028Q3 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 revenue base_2028q3_revenue | 2028Q3 / base | 1,270.75 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year gross_profit share base_2028q3_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q3 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 gross_profit base_2028q3_gross_profit | 2028Q3 / base | 412.61 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_gross_profit, base_2028q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year operating_income share base_2028q3_operating_income_weight | 2028Q3 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 operating_income base_2028q3_operating_income | 2028Q3 / base | 203.31 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year cfo share base_2028q3_cfo_weight | 2028Q3 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 cfo base_2028q3_cfo | 2028Q3 / base | 162.65 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year capex share base_2028q3_capex_weight | 2028Q3 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 capex base_2028q3_capex | 2028Q3 / base | 24.70 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_capex, base_2028q3_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q3 cash after capex base_2028q3_fcf | 2028Q3 / base | 137.95 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex). |
| 2028Q4 full-year revenue share base_2028q4_revenue_weight | 2028Q4 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 revenue base_2028q4_revenue | 2028Q4 / base | 1,270.75 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year gross_profit share base_2028q4_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q4 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 gross_profit base_2028q4_gross_profit | 2028Q4 / base | 412.61 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_gross_profit, base_2028q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year operating_income share base_2028q4_operating_income_weight | 2028Q4 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 operating_income base_2028q4_operating_income | 2028Q4 / base | 203.31 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year cfo share base_2028q4_cfo_weight | 2028Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 cfo base_2028q4_cfo | 2028Q4 / base | 187.67 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year capex share base_2028q4_capex_weight | 2028Q4 / base | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 capex base_2028q4_capex | 2028Q4 / base | 24.70 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2028_capex, base_2028q4_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q4 cash after capex base_2028q4_fcf | 2028Q4 / base | 162.97 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex). |
| Delivery factor upside_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / upside | 107.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 4,547.50 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, upside_fy2027_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share upside_fy2027_us_mix | FY2027 / upside | 84.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue upside_fy2027_credit_yield | FY2027 / upside | 13.0% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue upside_fy2027_us_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 3,819.90 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_fy2027_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits upside_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / upside | 496.59 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_us_revenue, upside_fy2027_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits upside_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / upside | 24.5% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits upside_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / upside | 1,114.14 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 1,610.72 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(upside_fy2027_core_gross, upside_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / upside | 710.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 900.72 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_fy2027_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income upside_fy2027_cash_conversion | FY2027 / upside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 765.62 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_fy2027_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 75.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 690.62 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_fy2027_capex). |
| Year-on-year revenue multiplier upside_fy2028_delivery | FY2028 / upside | 125.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to project timing and platform sales. The base FY2027 case uses the guidance midpoint; other cases deliberately stress it. |
| Revenue upside_fy2028_revenue | FY2028 / upside | 5,684.38 USD_millions | derived: Guidance anchor or prior modeled year times delivery/growth assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_fy2028_delivery). |
| U.S. revenue share upside_fy2028_us_mix | FY2028 / upside | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk geographic mix; credits are linked to U.S. revenue, not all global sales. |
| Vendor credits / U.S. revenue upside_fy2028_credit_yield | FY2028 / upside | 13.0% ratio | assumption: Desk proxy for eligible domestic tracker content, supplier sharing and product mix; not a statutory tax rate. Q1 was about 13.3%. |
| U.S. revenue upside_fy2028_us_revenue | FY2028 / upside | 4,547.50 USD_millions | derived: Geographic share times consolidated sales. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_fy2028_us_mix). |
| Vendor credits upside_fy2028_credits | FY2028 / upside | 591.18 USD_millions | derived: Eligible-product proxy applied to U.S. revenue; no credit assumed on the rest. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_us_revenue, upside_fy2028_credit_yield). |
| Gross margin before vendor credits upside_fy2028_core_margin | FY2028 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk product/pricing/freight/tariff sensitivity; Q1 analytical margin was about 24.9%. Base FY2027 allows a weaker mix than Q1. |
| Gross profit before vendor credits upside_fy2028_core_gross | FY2028 / upside | 1,477.94 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times margin before vendor credits. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_fy2028_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_fy2028_gross_profit | FY2028 / upside | 2,069.11 USD_millions | derived: Core gross profit plus vendor credits; both are within the GAAP cost-of-sales bridge. Formula: sum(upside_fy2028_core_gross, upside_fy2028_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_fy2028_opex | FY2028 / upside | 850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A/R&D budget including equity compensation and expansion costs. FY2027 includes the disclosed $50M power-conversion investment once. |
| GAAP operating income upside_fy2028_operating_income | FY2028 / upside | 1,219.11 USD_millions | derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses; not adjusted EBITDA. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2028_gross_profit, upside_fy2028_opex). |
| Operating cash flow / operating income upside_fy2028_cash_conversion | FY2028 / upside | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Desk aggregate cash-conversion sensitivity including working capital, taxes and noncash adjustments; Q1 cash conversion was about 63%. |
| Operating cash flow upside_fy2028_cfo | FY2028 / upside | 1,097.20 USD_millions | derived: Explicit conversion assumption, not a claim that earnings equal cash. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_operating_income, upside_fy2028_cash_conversion). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E upside_fy2028_capex | FY2028 / upside | 90.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity/product investment budget; excludes acquisition consideration. |
| Operating cash flow less capex upside_fy2028_fcf | FY2028 / upside | 1,007.20 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, TRA payments and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2028_cfo, upside_fy2028_capex). |
| FY2027 remaining revenue upside_fy2027_remaining_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 3,612.33 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_revenue, q1_revenue). |
| FY2027 remaining gross_profit upside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 1,274.87 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, q1_gross_profit). |
| FY2027 remaining operating_income upside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 709.82 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_operating_income, q1_operating_income). |
| FY2027 remaining cfo upside_fy2027_remaining_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 644.56 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_cfo, q1_cfo). |
| FY2027 remaining capex upside_fy2027_remaining_capex | FY2027 / upside | 59.10 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_capex, q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year revenue share upside_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,119.82 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year gross_profit share upside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 395.21 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year operating_income share upside_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 220.04 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year cfo share upside_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 cfo upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 174.03 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 remaining-year capex share upside_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q2 capex upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 18.91 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_capex, upside_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 155.12 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year revenue share upside_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,228.19 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share upside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 433.46 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year operating_income share upside_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 241.34 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year cfo share upside_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 33.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 cfo upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 212.70 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 remaining-year capex share upside_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q3 capex upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 20.09 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_capex, upside_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 192.61 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year revenue share upside_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,264.32 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share upside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 446.21 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year operating_income share upside_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 248.44 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year cfo share upside_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 cfo upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 257.82 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 remaining-year capex share upside_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 34.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2027Q4 capex upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 20.09 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_remaining_capex, upside_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 237.73 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| 2028Q1 full-year revenue share upside_2028q1_revenue_weight | 2028Q1 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 revenue upside_2028q1_revenue | 2028Q1 / upside | 1,307.41 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_2028q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year gross_profit share upside_2028q1_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q1 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 gross_profit upside_2028q1_gross_profit | 2028Q1 / upside | 475.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_gross_profit, upside_2028q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year operating_income share upside_2028q1_operating_income_weight | 2028Q1 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 operating_income upside_2028q1_operating_income | 2028Q1 / upside | 280.40 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_operating_income, upside_2028q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year cfo share upside_2028q1_cfo_weight | 2028Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 cfo upside_2028q1_cfo | 2028Q1 / upside | 219.44 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_cfo, upside_2028q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q1 full-year capex share upside_2028q1_capex_weight | 2028Q1 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q1 capex upside_2028q1_capex | 2028Q1 / upside | 20.70 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_capex, upside_2028q1_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q1 cash after capex upside_2028q1_fcf | 2028Q1 / upside | 198.74 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex). |
| 2028Q2 full-year revenue share upside_2028q2_revenue_weight | 2028Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 revenue upside_2028q2_revenue | 2028Q2 / upside | 1,421.09 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year gross_profit share upside_2028q2_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 gross_profit upside_2028q2_gross_profit | 2028Q2 / upside | 517.28 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year operating_income share upside_2028q2_operating_income_weight | 2028Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 operating_income upside_2028q2_operating_income | 2028Q2 / upside | 304.78 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year cfo share upside_2028q2_cfo_weight | 2028Q2 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 cfo upside_2028q2_cfo | 2028Q2 / upside | 263.33 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q2 full-year capex share upside_2028q2_capex_weight | 2028Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q2 capex upside_2028q2_capex | 2028Q2 / upside | 22.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_capex, upside_2028q2_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q2 cash after capex upside_2028q2_fcf | 2028Q2 / upside | 240.83 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex). |
| 2028Q3 full-year revenue share upside_2028q3_revenue_weight | 2028Q3 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 revenue upside_2028q3_revenue | 2028Q3 / upside | 1,477.94 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year gross_profit share upside_2028q3_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q3 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 gross_profit upside_2028q3_gross_profit | 2028Q3 / upside | 537.97 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year operating_income share upside_2028q3_operating_income_weight | 2028Q3 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 operating_income upside_2028q3_operating_income | 2028Q3 / upside | 316.97 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year cfo share upside_2028q3_cfo_weight | 2028Q3 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 cfo upside_2028q3_cfo | 2028Q3 / upside | 285.27 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q3 full-year capex share upside_2028q3_capex_weight | 2028Q3 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q3 capex upside_2028q3_capex | 2028Q3 / upside | 23.40 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_capex, upside_2028q3_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q3 cash after capex upside_2028q3_fcf | 2028Q3 / upside | 261.87 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex). |
| 2028Q4 full-year revenue share upside_2028q4_revenue_weight | 2028Q4 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 revenue upside_2028q4_revenue | 2028Q4 / upside | 1,477.94 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year gross_profit share upside_2028q4_gross_profit_weight | 2028Q4 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 gross_profit upside_2028q4_gross_profit | 2028Q4 / upside | 537.97 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year operating_income share upside_2028q4_operating_income_weight | 2028Q4 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 operating_income upside_2028q4_operating_income | 2028Q4 / upside | 316.97 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year cfo share upside_2028q4_cfo_weight | 2028Q4 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 cfo upside_2028q4_cfo | 2028Q4 / upside | 329.16 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2028Q4 full-year capex share upside_2028q4_capex_weight | 2028Q4 / upside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2028Q4 capex upside_2028q4_capex | 2028Q4 / upside | 23.40 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2028_capex, upside_2028q4_capex_weight). |
| 2028Q4 cash after capex upside_2028q4_fcf | 2028Q4 / upside | 305.76 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex). |
| Total tax receivable agreement liability total_tra | 2027Q1 / shared | 393.20 USD_millions | reported: Rounded disclosed total including current and noncurrent TRA obligations, not ordinary debt. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Maximum Prevalon contingent cash prevalon_contingent | July acquisition terms / shared | 165.00 USD_millions | reported: Contingent maximum, not an immediately payable liability or extra closing cash. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Maximum Apex/Zigor contingent cash apex_contingent | July acquisition terms / shared | 34.50 USD_millions | reported: Contingent maximum, not an immediately payable liability or extra closing cash. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Combined contingent cash maximum for July deals known_contingent_max | Acquisition terms / shared | 199.50 USD_millions | derived: Maximum disclosed dollars, subject to contingencies; Zimmermann euro commitments are separate. Formula: sum(prevalon_contingent, apex_contingent). |
Model boundaries
- Initial operating scenarios, not a complete balance sheet, EPS model or valuation. No FY2028 company guidance or paid consensus is assumed.
- Cash conversion summarizes tax, working capital and noncash movements; it is not a reconciled receivables/inventory/payables schedule.
- Cash after capex excludes acquisitions, TRA settlements and other financing/investing uses. The July 3 cash balance predates the July acquisitions; it is not available cash after those deals.
- Quarter-end dates are planning dates inferred from the reporting calendar; the March 31 fiscal year-end is disclosed. Forecast release dates are not confirmed.
- The generic history leaves long-term debt and some Q4 EPS/share fields unresolved. Long-term debt alone would not capture the TRA liability; missing is not zero.
- The pending Zimmermann acquisition requires about EUR180M closing cash, EUR105M stock and up to EUR45M contingent cash under June terms. No additional revenue is layered on top of the company outlook; closing and funding remain conditional. July acquisitions also carry up to $199.5M contingent cash and $50M deferred stock consideration.
Can the tracker franchise fund a wider power platform?
How much of current profit is repeatable product economics, and what does expansion cost in cash?
Q1 FY2027 shows the distinction: $935.2M sales, $190.9M operating income and $121.1M operating cash flow. The filing separately identifies $103.3M of vendor credits. The model strips those credits out of gross profit before adding a scenario for eligible sales and rebate sharing. July guidance includes $50M of incremental power-conversion costs. August PowerMerge backlog above 2 GW supports product adoption, but we assign no undisclosed price per watt or separate revenue to that announcement. The pending Zimmermann deal adds a separate EUR180M closing-cash commitment plus stock and contingent consideration, with expected close in H2 FY2027. July Prevalon/Apex closing cash totals $196M, and their contingent cash maximum is another $199.5M. The total TRA obligation is about $393.2M including its current portion; none of these claims is a PP&E deduction in modeled FCF.
The competing explanation
A broader supplier can reduce procurement and integration complexity for customers, improving product attachment and retention. If that advantage persists, conservative margins and expense budgets may understate the opportunity. Conversely, credit-supported tracker profitability could obscure weaker economics in newly acquired businesses.
Risks to track
- Project postponements, customer concentration and tariff changes can shift recognized revenue and margin.
- Credit eligibility and supplier sharing may change independently of shipments.
- Storage and conversion acquisitions introduce integration, warranty and contingent-payment obligations.
- GAAP earnings retain equity compensation; operating cash flow does not measure dilution.
Next checkpoints
- Next quarterly results · Late October / early November 2026; issuer date not verified (estimated). Reconcile sales and margin to the revised annual outlook; inspect new-product contribution and cash conversion.
- Acquisition and product integration · As new filings and company updates appear (event driven). Separate closing cash, contingent consideration, stock issuance, integration costs and actual revenue. Do not treat pending transactions as completed.
- Zimmermann transaction · H2 fiscal 2027 expected close; conditional (estimated). Verify closing, FX, cash/stock consideration and whether updated outlook includes acquired revenue.
Data coverage and open work
- The model does not allocate an invented revenue split to storage, inverters or eBOS where a reconciled segment series is unavailable.
- No complete capital structure, TRA payment forecast, diluted EPS bridge or equity valuation is presented.
- Forecast quarters use planning endpoints; future earnings-call dates remain estimates.
- The revenue forecast uses the company outlook without a separate Zimmermann addition. Pending acquisition cash, contingent consideration and TRA settlements remain outside CFO less PP&E; it is not cash available for distribution.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.6 | +0.1 | +2.6 | 52% |
| 5 sessions | -6.4 | +0.4 | +6.2 | 54% |
| 10 sessions | -6.9 | +0.3 | +8.0 | 51% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.