ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$LBRT

Liberty Energy Inc. · NYSE · SIC 1389 · CIK 1694028 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Liberty supplies hydraulic-fracturing services and related technology to North American producers, and is developing distributed power through Liberty Power Innovations. It reports one consolidated segment. Frac utilization, service pricing and operating efficiency generate the current cash base; power engines, deposits and construction require capital well before new data-center projects begin contributing.

Three drivers

  1. Consolidated activity, pricing and contribution margins
  2. Power-equipment payment milestones and contracted deployments
  3. Gross cash capex, leases and financing ahead of common owners

Thesis

Our view

Power demand creates a substantial addressable opportunity, but supplier orders do not establish customer revenue or an internally funded build. The operating test is whether existing service cash flow can finance the equipment program after leases and other claims.

What changes it

More firm customer contracts, disclosed power margins and cash milestones could strengthen the case. Persistent cash deficits, redacted obligations resolving into larger near-term payments, or weak frac pricing would weaken it.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)1,138.61943.6†2977.531,042.54947.411,038.7†21,021.231,188.64
Gross profit ($M)
Operating income ($M)107.3524.9†618.2737.18-2.4519.9†622.3712.78
Net income ($M)73.8951.9†1020.11171.01243.1913.7†1022.61143.112
EPS, diluted ($)0.44130.12140.43150.26130.14140.2615
Diluted shares (M)168.616165.817164.218165.116166.317167.718
Cash ($M)23.01920.02024.12119.62213.52327.624699.125555.424
Long-term debt ($M)123.026190.527210.028160.029253.030241.5311,271.3321,279.931
Cash from operations ($M)244.5†33177.3†34192.135170.6†3651.5†33195.4†348.435133.0†36
Capex ($M)
Free cash flow ($M)

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q31,248.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q41,176.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q11,236.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q21,284.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Frac cash generation versus the power-equipment funding cycle

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Use Q2 consolidated revenue as the activity/pricing anchor; Liberty reports one segment, so the forecast does not invent historical frac/power splits. Add only separately identified desk assumptions for incremental new power sales in late 2027. Derive service contribution, overhead, depreciation and equity compensation independently. Bridge EBITDA to CFO using cash interest, taxes and working capital, then deduct cash PP&E, finance-lease principal, TRA, dividends, award taxes, investments and scheduled small-loan principal. Forecast power deposits are included inside cash PP&E, not added twice.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
q2 revenueJune/July 20261,188.60reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
q2 ebitdaJune/July 2026151.15reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
H1 cfoH1 2026141.44reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23
H1 capexH1 2026380.86reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23
H1 CFO less gross PP&EH1 2026-239.42derived. Gross PP&E cash, before asset disposal proceeds.
H1 lease principalH1 202648.34reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23
H1 cash after modeled claimsH1 2026-357.76derived. Before external financing, capped calls and debt issuance costs; not the cash balance change.
cashJune/July 2026555.36reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
convert principalJune/July 20261,295.00reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
term principalJune/July 202632.26reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
lease liabilityJune/July 2026264.21reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
capital depositsJune/July 2026247.97reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
remaining engine commitmentsJune/July 20261,100.00reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
cat contractJune/July 2026801.00reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
Jenbacher contract original priceFebruary 2026493.16reported. Contract dated February 13, filed September 18; price can adjust for FX/duties. Included within the broader equipment program. May amendment moves notice-to-proceed payment to July 10; percentages redacted. Source · 2026-09-18
H1 investment gainH1 202660.23reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23
capped callsJune/July 2026186.51reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23
financing cashJune/July 2026752.05reported. USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Source · 2026-07-23

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)TRA payments ($M)Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Common dividends and equivalents ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
2026Q346.63-238.370.00285.001,106.8215.10124.6335.00-4.37-298.96
2026Q473.18-231.820.00305.001,004.1315.10106.1835.00-26.22-292.40
2027Q135.45-319.554.00355.001,026.9515.10108.4519.00-26.35-381.63
2027Q266.48-308.520.00375.001,072.5915.10114.4819.00-23.72-355.60
FY2026261.25-709.617.89970.864,320.7360.52507.80118.344.40-949.12
FY2027237.91-1,202.094.001,440.004,290.3660.40454.9176.00-104.69-1,405.40

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)TRA payments ($M)Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Common dividends and equivalents ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
2026Q3117.73-142.270.00260.001,248.5015.10167.7335.0038.73-202.85
2026Q4136.27-133.730.00270.001,176.4715.10153.2735.0020.87-194.32
2027Q198.57-216.434.00315.001,236.5015.10162.5719.0027.77-278.51
2027Q2128.71-216.290.00345.001,284.5215.10169.7119.0031.51-263.36
FY2026395.44-515.427.89910.864,634.7560.52597.99118.3494.59-754.93
FY2027486.97-823.034.001,310.005,122.0560.40674.9776.00115.37-1,026.34

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)TRA payments ($M)Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Common dividends and equivalents ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
2026Q3137.83-147.170.00285.001,322.1915.10197.8335.0068.83-207.75
2026Q4164.78-130.220.00295.001,273.2215.10186.7835.0054.38-190.80
2027Q1127.76-227.244.00355.001,383.4115.10206.7619.0071.96-289.31
2027Q2166.20-208.800.00375.001,444.6215.10217.2019.0079.00-255.88
FY2026444.05-516.817.89960.864,805.2060.52661.60118.34158.20-756.32
FY2027652.79-797.214.001,450.005,845.7260.40885.7976.00326.19-1,000.52
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared2,209.78
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared34.99
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 adj ebitda
h1_adj_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared277.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared141.44
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared380.86
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 lease principal
h1_lease_principal
H1 2026 / shared48.34
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 tra
h1_tra
H1 2026 / shared7.89
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 dividends
h1_dividends
H1 2026 / shared30.32
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared18.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 da
h1_da
H1 2026 / shared228.27
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 awards
h1_awards
H1 2026 / shared18.65
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 debt principal
h1_debt_principal
H1 2026 / shared3.46
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 investments
h1_investments
H1 2026 / shared9.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 asset sales
h1_asset_sales
H1 2026 / shared25.95
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 investment gain
h1_investment_gain
H1 2026 / shared60.23
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23
H1 CFO less gross PP&E
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared-239.42
USD_millions
derived: Gross PP&E cash, before asset disposal proceeds. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 additional cash uses
h1_claims
H1 2026 / shared118.35
USD_millions
derived: Financing and equity-investment uses after PP&E; excludes capped calls and debt-issuance fees. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, h1_tra, h1_dividends, h1_awards, h1_debt_principal, h1_investments).
H1 cash after modeled claims
h1_cash_after_claims
H1 2026 / shared-357.76
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, capped calls and debt issuance costs; not the cash balance change. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_claims).
q2 revenue
q2_revenue
June/July 2026 / shared1,188.60
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
q2 ebitda
q2_ebitda
June/July 2026 / shared151.15
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
cash
cash
June/July 2026 / shared555.36
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
convert principal
convert_principal
June/July 2026 / shared1,295.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
term principal
term_principal
June/July 2026 / shared32.26
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
lease liability
lease_liability
June/July 2026 / shared264.21
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
tra liability
tra_liability
June/July 2026 / shared66.87
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
capital deposits
capital_deposits
June/July 2026 / shared247.97
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
engine contracts
engine_contracts
June/July 2026 / shared1,300.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
remaining engine commitments
remaining_engine_commitments
June/July 2026 / shared1,100.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
cat contract
cat_contract
June/July 2026 / shared801.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
capped calls
capped_calls
June/July 2026 / shared186.51
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
financing cash
financing_cash
June/July 2026 / shared752.05
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Aggregate engine contract prices/remaining commitments are approximate. CAT contract signed July 22. Capped-call and financing cash are H1 flows. Primary source · 2026-07-23
Jenbacher contract original price
jenbacher_contract
February 2026 / shared493.16
USD_millions
reported: Contract dated February 13, filed September 18; price can adjust for FX/duties. Included within the broader equipment program. May amendment moves notice-to-proceed payment to July 10; percentages redacted. Primary source · 2026-09-18
Activity versus Q2
downside_2026q3_activity
2026Q3 / downside97.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2026q3_price
2026Q3 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2026q3_existing_revenue
2026Q3 / downside1,106.82
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2026q3_activity, downside_2026q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2026q3_new_power
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside1,106.82
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_existing_revenue, downside_2026q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2026q3_service_margin
2026Q3 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2026q3_existing_contribution
2026Q3 / downside182.63
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_existing_revenue, downside_2026q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2026q3_power_margin
2026Q3 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2026q3_power_contribution
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_new_power, downside_2026q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2026q3_contribution
2026Q3 / downside182.63
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_existing_contribution, downside_2026q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / downside58.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside124.63
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_contribution, downside_2026q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside116.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2026q3_transaction
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2026q3_gaap_deductions
2026Q3 / downside129.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-4.37
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / downside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / downside78.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use, downside_2026q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside46.63
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2026q3_maintenance_capex
2026Q3 / downside115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2026q3_power_capex
2026Q3 / downside170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside285.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_maintenance_capex, downside_2026q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-238.37
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2026q3_tra
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2026q3_dividends
2026Q3 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / downside2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2026q3_awards
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2026q3_investments
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / downside60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_lease_principal, downside_2026q3_tra, downside_2026q3_dividends, downside_2026q3_debt_principal, downside_2026q3_awards, downside_2026q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / downside-298.96
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
downside_2026q4_activity
2026Q4 / downside88.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2026q4_price
2026Q4 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2026q4_existing_revenue
2026Q4 / downside1,004.13
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2026q4_activity, downside_2026q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2026q4_new_power
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside1,004.13
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_existing_revenue, downside_2026q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2026q4_service_margin
2026Q4 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2026q4_existing_contribution
2026Q4 / downside165.68
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_existing_revenue, downside_2026q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2026q4_power_margin
2026Q4 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2026q4_power_contribution
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_new_power, downside_2026q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2026q4_contribution
2026Q4 / downside165.68
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_existing_contribution, downside_2026q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / downside59.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside106.18
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_contribution, downside_2026q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside119.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2026q4_transaction
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2026q4_gaap_deductions
2026Q4 / downside132.40
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-26.22
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use, downside_2026q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside73.18
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2026q4_maintenance_capex
2026Q4 / downside115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2026q4_power_capex
2026Q4 / downside190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside305.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_maintenance_capex, downside_2026q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-231.82
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2026q4_tra
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2026q4_dividends
2026Q4 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / downside2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2026q4_awards
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2026q4_investments
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / downside60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_lease_principal, downside_2026q4_tra, downside_2026q4_dividends, downside_2026q4_debt_principal, downside_2026q4_awards, downside_2026q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / downside-292.40
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_claims).
Activity versus Q2
downside_2027q1_activity
2027Q1 / downside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2027q1_price
2027Q1 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2027q1_existing_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1,026.95
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q1_activity, downside_2027q1_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2027q1_new_power
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1,026.95
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_existing_revenue, downside_2027q1_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2027q1_service_margin
2027Q1 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2027q1_existing_contribution
2027Q1 / downside169.45
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_existing_revenue, downside_2027q1_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2027q1_power_margin
2027Q1 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2027q1_power_contribution
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_new_power, downside_2027q1_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2027q1_contribution
2027Q1 / downside169.45
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_existing_contribution, downside_2027q1_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / downside61.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside108.45
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_contribution, downside_2027q1_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2027q1_transaction
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2027q1_gaap_deductions
2027Q1 / downside134.80
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-26.35
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / downside73.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use, downside_2027q1_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside35.45
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2027q1_maintenance_capex
2027Q1 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2027q1_power_capex
2027Q1 / downside230.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_maintenance_capex, downside_2027q1_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-319.55
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2027q1_tra
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2027q1_dividends
2027Q1 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / downside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2027q1_investments
2027Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / downside62.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_lease_principal, downside_2027q1_tra, downside_2027q1_dividends, downside_2027q1_debt_principal, downside_2027q1_awards, downside_2027q1_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside-381.63
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_claims).
Activity versus Q2
downside_2027q2_activity
2027Q2 / downside94.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2027q2_price
2027Q2 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2027q2_existing_revenue
2027Q2 / downside1,072.59
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_activity, downside_2027q2_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2027q2_new_power
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside1,072.59
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_existing_revenue, downside_2027q2_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2027q2_service_margin
2027Q2 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2027q2_existing_contribution
2027Q2 / downside176.98
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_existing_revenue, downside_2027q2_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2027q2_power_margin
2027Q2 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2027q2_power_contribution
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_new_power, downside_2027q2_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2027q2_contribution
2027Q2 / downside176.98
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_existing_contribution, downside_2027q2_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / downside62.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside114.48
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_contribution, downside_2027q2_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2027q2_transaction
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2027q2_gaap_deductions
2027Q2 / downside138.20
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-23.72
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / downside48.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use, downside_2027q2_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside66.48
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2027q2_maintenance_capex
2027Q2 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2027q2_power_capex
2027Q2 / downside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside375.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_maintenance_capex, downside_2027q2_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-308.52
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2027q2_tra
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2027q2_dividends
2027Q2 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / downside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2027q2_investments
2027Q2 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / downside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_lease_principal, downside_2027q2_tra, downside_2027q2_dividends, downside_2027q2_debt_principal, downside_2027q2_awards, downside_2027q2_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside-355.60
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_claims).
Activity versus Q2
downside_2027q3_activity
2027Q3 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2027q3_price
2027Q3 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2027q3_existing_revenue
2027Q3 / downside1,095.41
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_activity, downside_2027q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2027q3_new_power
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside1,095.41
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_existing_revenue, downside_2027q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2027q3_service_margin
2027Q3 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2027q3_existing_contribution
2027Q3 / downside180.74
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_existing_revenue, downside_2027q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2027q3_power_margin
2027Q3 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2027q3_power_contribution
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_new_power, downside_2027q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2027q3_contribution
2027Q3 / downside180.74
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_existing_contribution, downside_2027q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / downside64.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside116.74
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_contribution, downside_2027q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside128.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2027q3_transaction
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2027q3_gaap_deductions
2027Q3 / downside141.60
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-24.86
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / downside53.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use, downside_2027q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside63.74
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2027q3_maintenance_capex
2027Q3 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2027q3_power_capex
2027Q3 / downside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside365.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_maintenance_capex, downside_2027q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-301.26
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2027q3_tra
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2027q3_dividends
2027Q3 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / downside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2027q3_investments
2027Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / downside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_lease_principal, downside_2027q3_tra, downside_2027q3_dividends, downside_2027q3_debt_principal, downside_2027q3_awards, downside_2027q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside-348.33
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
downside_2027q4_activity
2027Q4 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
downside_2027q4_price
2027Q4 / downside96.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
downside_2027q4_existing_revenue
2027Q4 / downside1,095.41
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q4_activity, downside_2027q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
downside_2027q4_new_power
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside1,095.41
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_existing_revenue, downside_2027q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
downside_2027q4_service_margin
2027Q4 / downside16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
downside_2027q4_existing_contribution
2027Q4 / downside180.74
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_existing_revenue, downside_2027q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
downside_2027q4_power_margin
2027Q4 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
downside_2027q4_power_contribution
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_new_power, downside_2027q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
downside_2027q4_contribution
2027Q4 / downside180.74
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_existing_contribution, downside_2027q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
downside_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / downside65.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside115.24
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_contribution, downside_2027q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside131.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
downside_2027q4_transaction
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
downside_2027q4_gaap_deductions
2027Q4 / downside145.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside-29.76
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
downside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
downside_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / downside43.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use, downside_2027q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside72.24
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
downside_2027q4_maintenance_capex
2027Q4 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
downside_2027q4_power_capex
2027Q4 / downside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside345.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_maintenance_capex, downside_2027q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-272.76
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
downside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
downside_2027q4_tra
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
downside_2027q4_dividends
2027Q4 / downside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
downside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / downside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
downside_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
downside_2027q4_investments
2027Q4 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
downside_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / downside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_lease_principal, downside_2027q4_tra, downside_2027q4_dividends, downside_2027q4_debt_principal, downside_2027q4_awards, downside_2027q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside-319.83
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside4,320.73
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside4.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / downside507.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside261.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside970.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-709.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / downside118.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, downside_2026q3_lease_principal, downside_2026q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
downside_fy2026_tra
FY2026 / downside7.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_tra, downside_2026q3_tra, downside_2026q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
downside_fy2026_dividends
FY2026 / downside60.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_dividends, downside_2026q3_dividends, downside_2026q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / downside-949.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside4,290.36
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-104.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / downside454.91
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside237.91
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside1,440.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-1,202.09
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / downside76.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_lease_principal, downside_2027q2_lease_principal, downside_2027q3_lease_principal, downside_2027q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_tra
FY2027 / downside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_tra, downside_2027q2_tra, downside_2027q3_tra, downside_2027q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
downside_fy2027_dividends
FY2027 / downside60.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_dividends, downside_2027q2_dividends, downside_2027q3_dividends, downside_2027q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside-1,405.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2026q3_activity
2026Q3 / base104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2026q3_price
2026Q3 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2026q3_existing_revenue
2026Q3 / base1,248.50
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2026q3_activity, base_2026q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2026q3_new_power
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base1,248.50
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_existing_revenue, base_2026q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2026q3_service_margin
2026Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2026q3_existing_contribution
2026Q3 / base224.73
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_existing_revenue, base_2026q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2026q3_power_margin
2026Q3 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2026q3_power_contribution
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_new_power, base_2026q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2026q3_contribution
2026Q3 / base224.73
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_existing_contribution, base_2026q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / base57.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / base167.73
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_contribution, base_2026q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base116.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2026q3_transaction
2026Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2026q3_gaap_deductions
2026Q3 / base129.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base38.73
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use, base_2026q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base117.73
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2026q3_maintenance_capex
2026Q3 / base115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2026q3_power_capex
2026Q3 / base145.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base260.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_maintenance_capex, base_2026q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-142.27
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2026q3_tra
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2026q3_dividends
2026Q3 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / base2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2026q3_awards
2026Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2026q3_investments
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / base60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_lease_principal, base_2026q3_tra, base_2026q3_dividends, base_2026q3_debt_principal, base_2026q3_awards, base_2026q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / base-202.85
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2026q4_activity
2026Q4 / base98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2026q4_price
2026Q4 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2026q4_existing_revenue
2026Q4 / base1,176.47
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2026q4_activity, base_2026q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2026q4_new_power
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base1,176.47
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_existing_revenue, base_2026q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2026q4_service_margin
2026Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2026q4_existing_contribution
2026Q4 / base211.77
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_existing_revenue, base_2026q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2026q4_power_margin
2026Q4 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2026q4_power_contribution
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_new_power, base_2026q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2026q4_contribution
2026Q4 / base211.77
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_existing_contribution, base_2026q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / base58.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / base153.27
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_contribution, base_2026q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base119.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2026q4_transaction
2026Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2026q4_gaap_deductions
2026Q4 / base132.40
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base20.87
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / base-5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / base17.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use, base_2026q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base136.27
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2026q4_maintenance_capex
2026Q4 / base115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2026q4_power_capex
2026Q4 / base155.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base270.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_maintenance_capex, base_2026q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base-133.73
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2026q4_tra
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2026q4_dividends
2026Q4 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / base2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2026q4_awards
2026Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2026q4_investments
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / base60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_lease_principal, base_2026q4_tra, base_2026q4_dividends, base_2026q4_debt_principal, base_2026q4_awards, base_2026q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / base-194.32
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2027q1_activity
2027Q1 / base103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2027q1_price
2027Q1 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2027q1_existing_revenue
2027Q1 / base1,236.50
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q1_activity, base_2027q1_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2027q1_new_power
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base1,236.50
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_existing_revenue, base_2027q1_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2027q1_service_margin
2027Q1 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2027q1_existing_contribution
2027Q1 / base222.57
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_existing_revenue, base_2027q1_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2027q1_power_margin
2027Q1 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2027q1_power_contribution
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_new_power, base_2027q1_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2027q1_contribution
2027Q1 / base222.57
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_existing_contribution, base_2027q1_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / base60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / base162.57
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_contribution, base_2027q1_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2027q1_transaction
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2027q1_gaap_deductions
2027Q1 / base134.80
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base27.77
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / base64.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use, base_2027q1_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base98.57
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2027q1_maintenance_capex
2027Q1 / base125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2027q1_power_capex
2027Q1 / base190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base315.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_maintenance_capex, base_2027q1_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-216.43
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2027q1_tra
2027Q1 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2027q1_dividends
2027Q1 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / base2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2027q1_investments
2027Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / base62.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_lease_principal, base_2027q1_tra, base_2027q1_dividends, base_2027q1_debt_principal, base_2027q1_awards, base_2027q1_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base-278.51
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2027q2_activity
2027Q2 / base107.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2027q2_price
2027Q2 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2027q2_existing_revenue
2027Q2 / base1,284.52
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q2_activity, base_2027q2_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2027q2_new_power
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base1,284.52
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_existing_revenue, base_2027q2_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2027q2_service_margin
2027Q2 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2027q2_existing_contribution
2027Q2 / base231.21
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_existing_revenue, base_2027q2_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2027q2_power_margin
2027Q2 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2027q2_power_contribution
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_new_power, base_2027q2_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2027q2_contribution
2027Q2 / base231.21
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_existing_contribution, base_2027q2_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / base61.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / base169.71
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_contribution, base_2027q2_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2027q2_transaction
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2027q2_gaap_deductions
2027Q2 / base138.20
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base31.51
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / base41.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use, base_2027q2_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base128.71
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2027q2_maintenance_capex
2027Q2 / base125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2027q2_power_capex
2027Q2 / base220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base345.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_maintenance_capex, base_2027q2_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-216.29
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2027q2_tra
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2027q2_dividends
2027Q2 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / base2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2027q2_investments
2027Q2 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / base47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_lease_principal, base_2027q2_tra, base_2027q2_dividends, base_2027q2_debt_principal, base_2027q2_awards, base_2027q2_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base-263.36
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2027q3_activity
2027Q3 / base109.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2027q3_price
2027Q3 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2027q3_existing_revenue
2027Q3 / base1,308.53
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q3_activity, base_2027q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2027q3_new_power
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base1,308.53
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_existing_revenue, base_2027q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2027q3_service_margin
2027Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2027q3_existing_contribution
2027Q3 / base235.53
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_existing_revenue, base_2027q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2027q3_power_margin
2027Q3 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2027q3_power_contribution
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_new_power, base_2027q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2027q3_contribution
2027Q3 / base235.53
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_existing_contribution, base_2027q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / base63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / base172.53
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_contribution, base_2027q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base128.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2027q3_transaction
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2027q3_gaap_deductions
2027Q3 / base141.60
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base30.93
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / base48.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use, base_2027q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base124.53
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2027q3_maintenance_capex
2027Q3 / base125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2027q3_power_capex
2027Q3 / base210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base335.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_maintenance_capex, base_2027q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-210.47
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2027q3_tra
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2027q3_dividends
2027Q3 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / base2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2027q3_investments
2027Q3 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / base47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_lease_principal, base_2027q3_tra, base_2027q3_dividends, base_2027q3_debt_principal, base_2027q3_awards, base_2027q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base-257.54
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
base_2027q4_activity
2027Q4 / base106.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
base_2027q4_price
2027Q4 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
base_2027q4_existing_revenue
2027Q4 / base1,272.51
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q4_activity, base_2027q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
base_2027q4_new_power
2027Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base1,292.51
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_existing_revenue, base_2027q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
base_2027q4_service_margin
2027Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
base_2027q4_existing_contribution
2027Q4 / base229.05
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_existing_revenue, base_2027q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
base_2027q4_power_margin
2027Q4 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
base_2027q4_power_contribution
2027Q4 / base5.60
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_new_power, base_2027q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
base_2027q4_contribution
2027Q4 / base234.65
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_existing_contribution, base_2027q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
base_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / base64.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / base170.15
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_contribution, base_2027q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base131.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
base_2027q4_transaction
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
base_2027q4_gaap_deductions
2027Q4 / base145.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base25.15
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
base_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
base_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
base_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use, base_2027q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base135.15
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
base_2027q4_maintenance_capex
2027Q4 / base125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
base_2027q4_power_capex
2027Q4 / base190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base315.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_maintenance_capex, base_2027q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-179.85
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
base_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
base_2027q4_tra
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
base_2027q4_dividends
2027Q4 / base15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
base_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / base2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
base_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
base_2027q4_investments
2027Q4 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
base_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / base47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_lease_principal, base_2027q4_tra, base_2027q4_dividends, base_2027q4_debt_principal, base_2027q4_awards, base_2027q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base-226.92
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base4,634.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base94.59
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / base597.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base395.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base910.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base-515.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
base_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / base118.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, base_2026q3_lease_principal, base_2026q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
base_fy2026_tra
FY2026 / base7.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_tra, base_2026q3_tra, base_2026q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
base_fy2026_dividends
FY2026 / base60.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_dividends, base_2026q3_dividends, base_2026q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / base-754.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base5,122.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base115.37
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / base674.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base486.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base1,310.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-823.03
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
base_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / base76.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_lease_principal, base_2027q2_lease_principal, base_2027q3_lease_principal, base_2027q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
base_fy2027_tra
FY2027 / base4.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_tra, base_2027q2_tra, base_2027q3_tra, base_2027q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
base_fy2027_dividends
FY2027 / base60.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_dividends, base_2027q2_dividends, base_2027q3_dividends, base_2027q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base-1,026.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2026q3_activity
2026Q3 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2026q3_price
2026Q3 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2026q3_existing_revenue
2026Q3 / upside1,322.19
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2026q3_activity, upside_2026q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2026q3_new_power
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside1,322.19
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_existing_revenue, upside_2026q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2026q3_service_margin
2026Q3 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2026q3_existing_contribution
2026Q3 / upside257.83
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_existing_revenue, upside_2026q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2026q3_power_margin
2026Q3 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2026q3_power_contribution
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_new_power, upside_2026q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2026q3_contribution
2026Q3 / upside257.83
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_existing_contribution, upside_2026q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / upside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside197.83
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_contribution, upside_2026q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside116.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2026q3_transaction
2026Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2026q3_gaap_deductions
2026Q3 / upside129.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside68.83
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / upside60.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use, upside_2026q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside137.83
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2026q3_maintenance_capex
2026Q3 / upside115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2026q3_power_capex
2026Q3 / upside170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside285.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_maintenance_capex, upside_2026q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside-147.17
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2026q3_tra
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2026q3_dividends
2026Q3 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / upside2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2026q3_awards
2026Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2026q3_investments
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / upside60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_lease_principal, upside_2026q3_tra, upside_2026q3_dividends, upside_2026q3_debt_principal, upside_2026q3_awards, upside_2026q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / upside-207.75
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2026q4_activity
2026Q4 / upside104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2026q4_price
2026Q4 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2026q4_existing_revenue
2026Q4 / upside1,273.22
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2026q4_activity, upside_2026q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2026q4_new_power
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside1,273.22
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_existing_revenue, upside_2026q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2026q4_service_margin
2026Q4 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2026q4_existing_contribution
2026Q4 / upside248.28
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_existing_revenue, upside_2026q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2026q4_power_margin
2026Q4 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2026q4_power_contribution
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_new_power, upside_2026q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2026q4_contribution
2026Q4 / upside248.28
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_existing_contribution, upside_2026q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / upside61.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside186.78
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_contribution, upside_2026q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside119.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2026q4_transaction
2026Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2026q4_gaap_deductions
2026Q4 / upside132.40
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside54.38
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use, upside_2026q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside164.78
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2026q4_maintenance_capex
2026Q4 / upside115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2026q4_power_capex
2026Q4 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside295.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_maintenance_capex, upside_2026q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside-130.22
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2026q4_tra
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2026q4_dividends
2026Q4 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / upside2.48
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2026q4_awards
2026Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2026q4_investments
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / upside60.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_lease_principal, upside_2026q4_tra, upside_2026q4_dividends, upside_2026q4_debt_principal, upside_2026q4_awards, upside_2026q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / upside-190.80
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2027q1_activity
2027Q1 / upside113.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2027q1_price
2027Q1 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2027q1_existing_revenue
2027Q1 / upside1,383.41
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q1_activity, upside_2027q1_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2027q1_new_power
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside1,383.41
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_existing_revenue, upside_2027q1_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2027q1_service_margin
2027Q1 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2027q1_existing_contribution
2027Q1 / upside269.76
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_existing_revenue, upside_2027q1_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2027q1_power_margin
2027Q1 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2027q1_power_contribution
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_new_power, upside_2027q1_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2027q1_contribution
2027Q1 / upside269.76
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_existing_contribution, upside_2027q1_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / upside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside206.76
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_contribution, upside_2027q1_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2027q1_transaction
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2027q1_gaap_deductions
2027Q1 / upside134.80
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside71.96
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / upside79.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use, upside_2027q1_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside127.76
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2027q1_maintenance_capex
2027Q1 / upside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2027q1_power_capex
2027Q1 / upside230.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_maintenance_capex, upside_2027q1_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside-227.24
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2027q1_tra
2027Q1 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2027q1_dividends
2027Q1 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / upside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2027q1_investments
2027Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / upside62.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_lease_principal, upside_2027q1_tra, upside_2027q1_dividends, upside_2027q1_debt_principal, upside_2027q1_awards, upside_2027q1_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside-289.31
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2027q2_activity
2027Q2 / upside118.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2027q2_price
2027Q2 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2027q2_existing_revenue
2027Q2 / upside1,444.62
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_activity, upside_2027q2_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2027q2_new_power
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside1,444.62
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_existing_revenue, upside_2027q2_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2027q2_service_margin
2027Q2 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2027q2_existing_contribution
2027Q2 / upside281.70
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_existing_revenue, upside_2027q2_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2027q2_power_margin
2027Q2 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2027q2_power_contribution
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_new_power, upside_2027q2_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2027q2_contribution
2027Q2 / upside281.70
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_existing_contribution, upside_2027q2_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / upside64.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside217.20
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_contribution, upside_2027q2_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2027q2_transaction
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2027q2_gaap_deductions
2027Q2 / upside138.20
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside79.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / upside51.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use, upside_2027q2_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside166.20
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2027q2_maintenance_capex
2027Q2 / upside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2027q2_power_capex
2027Q2 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside375.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_maintenance_capex, upside_2027q2_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside-208.80
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2027q2_tra
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2027q2_dividends
2027Q2 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / upside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2027q2_investments
2027Q2 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / upside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_lease_principal, upside_2027q2_tra, upside_2027q2_dividends, upside_2027q2_debt_principal, upside_2027q2_awards, upside_2027q2_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside-255.88
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2027q3_activity
2027Q3 / upside122.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2027q3_price
2027Q3 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2027q3_existing_revenue
2027Q3 / upside1,493.59
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_activity, upside_2027q3_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2027q3_new_power
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside1,503.59
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_existing_revenue, upside_2027q3_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2027q3_service_margin
2027Q3 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2027q3_existing_contribution
2027Q3 / upside291.25
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_existing_revenue, upside_2027q3_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2027q3_power_margin
2027Q3 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2027q3_power_contribution
2027Q3 / upside3.20
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_new_power, upside_2027q3_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2027q3_contribution
2027Q3 / upside294.45
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_existing_contribution, upside_2027q3_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / upside66.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside228.45
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_contribution, upside_2027q3_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside128.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2027q3_transaction
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2027q3_gaap_deductions
2027Q3 / upside141.60
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside86.85
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / upside58.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use, upside_2027q3_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside170.45
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2027q3_maintenance_capex
2027Q3 / upside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2027q3_power_capex
2027Q3 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside375.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_maintenance_capex, upside_2027q3_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside-204.55
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2027q3_tra
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2027q3_dividends
2027Q3 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / upside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2027q3_investments
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / upside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_lease_principal, upside_2027q3_tra, upside_2027q3_dividends, upside_2027q3_debt_principal, upside_2027q3_awards, upside_2027q3_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside-251.63
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_claims).
Activity versus Q2
upside_2027q4_activity
2027Q4 / upside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Pricing/mix versus Q2
upside_2027q4_price
2027Q4 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing business revenue
upside_2027q4_existing_revenue
2027Q4 / upside1,469.10
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated anchor already includes existing power-related activity. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q4_activity, upside_2027q4_price).
Incremental new-project power revenue
upside_2027q4_new_power
2027Q4 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk revenue sensitivity only; no customer contract revenue per MW was disclosed for PowerBridge.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside1,514.10
USD_millions
derived: No revenue from buying engines or announcing capacity. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_existing_revenue, upside_2027q4_new_power).
Service contribution margin
upside_2027q4_service_margin
2027Q4 / upside19.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Existing-business contribution
upside_2027q4_existing_contribution
2027Q4 / upside286.48
USD_millions
derived: Cost of services excludes D&A. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_existing_revenue, upside_2027q4_service_margin).
Incremental power contribution margin
upside_2027q4_power_margin
2027Q4 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New power contribution
upside_2027q4_power_contribution
2027Q4 / upside14.40
USD_millions
derived: Incremental modeled operations only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_new_power, upside_2027q4_power_margin).
Service contribution before overhead and D&A
upside_2027q4_contribution
2027Q4 / upside300.88
USD_millions
derived: Company does not report these as separate historical segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_existing_contribution, upside_2027q4_power_contribution).
G&A excluding stock compensation
upside_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / upside67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside233.38
USD_millions
derived: Excludes equity compensation, D&A and modeled nonrecurring transaction costs; ordinary operating costs remain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_contribution, upside_2027q4_cash_overhead).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Depreciation depletion and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside131.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and other operating expense
upside_2027q4_transaction
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A, equity expense and transaction costs
upside_2027q4_gaap_deductions
2027Q4 / upside145.00
USD_millions
derived: No investment fair-value gains in operating earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_transaction).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside88.38
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no net disposal gain/loss or impairment; separate downside risks. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_deductions).
Cash interest net of investment income
upside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Small-loan and finance-lease interest, less cash yield; convertible notes have no regular coupon.
Cash income taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash interest taxes working capital and transaction costs
upside_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / upside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Lease principal and TRA remain below CFO; transaction costs remain cash uses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use, upside_2027q4_transaction).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside188.38
USD_millions
derived: Does not repeat noncash investment marks as cash generation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Existing fleet and other PP&E cash
upside_2027q4_maintenance_capex
2027Q4 / upside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Power engines deposits and buildout cash
upside_2027q4_power_capex
2027Q4 / upside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Scenario allocation within aggregate capex; redacted equipment milestones prevent an exact contractual schedule.
Gross cash PP&E and deposits
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside345.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes deposits once; not an additional deduction after capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_maintenance_capex, upside_2027q4_power_capex).
CFO less gross PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside-156.62
USD_millions
derived: No disposal proceeds netted against cash PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Finance-lease principal
upside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation informed by remaining 2026 gross lease payments $79.705M and 2027 $87.432M, including interest. Interest is separately in CFO.
TRA cash payment
upside_2027q4_tra
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash allowance, not a conclusion that the $66.870M liability is extinguished.
Common dividends and equivalents
upside_2027q4_dividends
2027Q4 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Approximately $0.09 per share quarterly, including allowance for award equivalents; future board declarations required.
Small-loan principal
upside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / upside2.98
USD_millions
assumption: Remainder 2026 $4.961M and 2027 $11.906M disclosed debt maturities, evenly allocated.
Employee award withholding
upside_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Equity investment purchases
upside_2027q4_investments
2027Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional cash uses
upside_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / upside47.08
USD_millions
derived: Financing/equity-investment outflows; no new borrowing included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_lease_principal, upside_2027q4_tra, upside_2027q4_dividends, upside_2027q4_debt_principal, upside_2027q4_awards, upside_2027q4_investments).
Cash after investment and capital claims
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside-203.70
USD_millions
derived: Before new financing, acquisitions, optional buybacks and asset-sale proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside4,805.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside158.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / upside661.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside444.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside960.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside-516.81
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / upside118.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, upside_2026q3_lease_principal, upside_2026q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
upside_fy2026_tra
FY2026 / upside7.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_tra, upside_2026q3_tra, upside_2026q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
upside_fy2026_dividends
FY2026 / upside60.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_dividends, upside_2026q3_dividends, upside_2026q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / upside-756.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside5,845.72
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside326.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / upside885.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside652.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash PP&E and deposits ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside1,450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside-797.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / upside76.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_lease_principal, upside_2027q2_lease_principal, upside_2027q3_lease_principal, upside_2027q4_lease_principal).
TRA payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_tra
FY2027 / upside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_tra, upside_2027q2_tra, upside_2027q3_tra, upside_2027q4_tra).
Common dividends and equivalents ($M)
upside_fy2027_dividends
FY2027 / upside60.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_dividends, upside_2027q2_dividends, upside_2027q3_dividends, upside_2027q4_dividends).
Cash after investment and capital claims ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside-1,000.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

The cash cost of moving from frac services into power

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can the existing service business fund the power-equipment program before new sites produce material cash?

H1 revenue was $2.210B and adjusted EBITDA $277.0M, but CFO was $141.4M against gross PP&E cash spending of $380.9M. Company reported capex of $354.9M nets $26.0M asset-sale proceeds. Another $48.3M finance-lease principal, $7.9M TRA and $30.3M dividends sit below CFO. Cash of $555.4M follows $1.295B convertible issuance and $186.5M capped-call spending; the notes have zero regular coupon and mature in 2031/2032. June remaining power-equipment commitments were approximately $1.1B, with a separate $801M CAT contract signed July 22. Capital deposits already totaled $248.0M. The September 18-filed Jenbacher agreement has original price $493.1554M for 2028 delivery; it is part of the broader program, and its May amendment changes payment timing, with percentages redacted. PowerBridge initial capacity targets late 2027. Noncash investment gains of $60.2M supported H1 net income but are not operating cash.

The competing explanation

Frac cash generation may recover while power investment still consumes more capital than it produces. Engine commitments carry currency, tariff and delivery exposure. Site readiness, grid/fuel access, commercial terms and customer acceptance can delay monetization beyond equipment payments.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Completed consolidated service and power-funding model with gross capex, leases, TRA and zero-coupon note context.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed mid-range, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-1.8+0.0+2.450%
5 sessions-4.5+0.3+5.756%
10 sessions-6.3-0.0+7.750%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-10-21 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-07-23 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  2. [2] derived: Revenues, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  3. [3] reported: Revenues, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  4. [4] reported: Revenues, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  5. [5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  6. [6] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  7. [7] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  8. [8] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  9. [9] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  10. [10] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  11. [11] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  12. [12] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  13. [13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  14. [14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  15. [15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  16. [16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  17. [17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  18. [18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-24-000112, 10-Q filed 2024-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  21. [21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-25-000083, 10-Q filed 2025-04-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-25-000100, 10-Q filed 2025-07-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  26. [26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-24-000112, 10-Q filed 2024-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  27. [27] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  28. [28] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-25-000083, 10-Q filed 2025-04-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  29. [29] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-25-000100, 10-Q filed 2025-07-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  30. [30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  31. [31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  32. [32] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  33. [33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001694028-25-000115, 10-Q filed 2025-10-17; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  34. [34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001694028-26-000006, 10-K filed 2026-02-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  35. [35] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001694028-26-000023, 10-Q filed 2026-04-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json
  36. [36] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001694028-26-000039, 10-Q filed 2026-07-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:01+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001694028.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T22:22:02.719991+00:00 · authored abf4c6a9b749 · generated b68fd39f9075 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard