ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$LAC

LITHIUM AMERICAS CORP. · NYSE · SIC 1000 · CIK 1966983 · revision 5 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Lithium Americas is developing Thacker Pass in Nevada through a consolidated joint venture with General Motors. Construction, financing conditions and commissioning determine the path to lithium sales. Parent shareholders own an interest in the project after partner, debt, royalty and potential dilution claims.

Three drivers

  1. Construction completion, invoice settlement and cost overruns
  2. Conditional DOE advances and corporate financing claims
  3. Commissioning, customer acceptance and later lithium prices

Thesis

Our view

The investable question is whether the project reaches commissioning within its cost and funding envelope. Current accounting gains and large consolidated cash balances do not establish mine profitability or freely available parent cash.

What changes it

Track budget-eligible construction, cash PP&E, reserve restrictions and actual financing draws; distinguish mechanical completion from lithium shipments.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)
Gross profit ($M)
Operating income ($M)
Net income ($M)-8.51-21.3†2-11.53-13.23-199.21137.7†24.631.73
EPS, diluted ($)-0.044-0.055-0.066-0.8340.005-0.026
Diluted shares (M)218.07218.68219.69238.77353.28401.79
Cash ($M)593.910446.611508.912385.313568.214758.515822.814
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)0.1†16-8.3†17-18.818-30.5†192.3†16-14.2†17-18.318-5.6†19
Capex ($M)34.7†2066.0†21117.922235.6†23172.2†20239.4†21299.322332.2†23
Free cash flow ($M)-34.6†24-74.2†25-136.8†26-266.1†27-169.9†24-253.5†25-317.6†26-337.8†27

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q30.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Lithium revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q40.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Lithium revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q10.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Lithium revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q20.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Lithium revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Thacker Pass construction, capitalized cost and conditional funding

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Keep the consolidated project construction schedule separate from cash payments, capitalized interest and corporate operating cash. Base 2026 total capitalized cost is $1.46B within the reported $1.3-1.6B range; base cumulative construction reaches the $2.93B project budget by late 2027. No lithium sales are assumed through 2027. Vary invoice settlement, corporate cost, conditional DOE draws and financing cash independently. Show consolidated cash change after financing without implying unrestricted parent liquidity.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2026 capitalized cost guidance midpointFY20261,450.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
H1 capitalized totalH1 2026802.40reported. USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Source · 2026-08-13
H1 cash capexH1 2026631.56reported. USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Source · 2026-08-13
H1 capitalized costs less cash PP&EH1 2026170.84derived. Includes noncash interest, invoice timing and other accounting differences; not a complete payable rollforward.
H1 cash after PP&E and lease principalH1 2026-657.84derived. Before new external funding.
cashJune / subsequent events822.78reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
restrictedJune / subsequent events456.41reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
jv cashJune / subsequent events530.30reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
construction cumulativeJune / subsequent events1,621.70reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
construction budgetJune / subsequent events2,930.00reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
doe principal capacityJune / subsequent events1,970.00reported. Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Source · 2026-08-13
doe drawnJune / subsequent events1,209.00reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
yorkville closedJune / subsequent events150.00reported. Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Source · 2026-08-13
yorkville optionalJune / subsequent events25.00reported. Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Source · 2026-08-13
orion original remainingJune / subsequent events97.50reported. Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Source · 2026-08-13

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)External financing net of fees ($M)Lithium revenue ($M)Cash PP&E spending ($M)Capitalized construction ($M)Other capitalized costs ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)Operating income ($M)Total capitalized costs ($M)Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)Capitalized interest ($M)
2026Q3-13.25252.200.00511.00420.0011.001.30-525.55-18.75444.00-273.3513.00
2026Q4-16.45149.000.00502.00430.0012.001.30-519.75-21.25456.00-370.7514.00
2027Q1-22.65149.000.00354.00300.0014.001.30-377.95-23.75333.00-228.9519.00
2027Q2-25.85149.000.00295.00260.0015.001.30-322.15-26.25297.00-173.1522.00
FY2026-53.521,432.620.001,644.561,609.1038.405.05-1,703.14-66.241,702.40-270.5254.90
FY2027-109.80507.000.001,123.00950.0063.005.20-1,238.00-110.001,105.00-731.0092.00

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)External financing net of fees ($M)Lithium revenue ($M)Cash PP&E spending ($M)Capitalized construction ($M)Other capitalized costs ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)Operating income ($M)Total capitalized costs ($M)Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)Capitalized interest ($M)
2026Q3-9.50402.200.00400.00325.0010.001.30-410.80-15.00347.00-8.6012.00
2026Q4-12.20199.000.00350.00290.909.601.30-363.50-17.00310.60-164.5010.10
2027Q1-17.90199.000.00230.00200.0010.001.30-249.20-19.00224.00-50.2014.00
2027Q2-20.60110.000.00235.00210.0010.001.30-256.90-21.00236.00-146.9016.00
FY2026-45.521,632.620.001,381.561,375.0035.005.05-1,432.14-58.241,460.00200.4850.00
FY2027-87.80307.000.00787.40692.4040.005.20-880.40-88.00800.40-573.4068.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)External financing net of fees ($M)Lithium revenue ($M)Cash PP&E spending ($M)Capitalized construction ($M)Other capitalized costs ($M)Finance-lease principal ($M)Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)Operating income ($M)Total capitalized costs ($M)Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)Capitalized interest ($M)
2026Q3-8.00402.200.00313.00260.008.001.30-322.30-13.50278.0079.9010.00
2026Q4-10.50249.000.00274.50230.908.601.30-286.30-15.30254.60-37.3015.10
2027Q1-16.00199.000.00284.00260.009.001.30-301.30-17.10283.00-102.3014.00
2027Q2-18.5060.000.00259.00240.009.001.30-278.80-18.90265.00-218.8016.00
FY2026-42.321,682.620.001,219.061,250.0032.005.05-1,266.44-55.041,335.00416.1853.00
FY2027-79.00257.000.00893.40817.4036.005.20-977.60-79.20921.40-720.6068.00
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: No operating revenue in development period; funding is DOE and equity proceeds less cash financing fees, before separately deducted lease principal. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared-26.24
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared-23.82
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 construction
h1_construction
H1 2026 / shared759.10
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 other capital
h1_other_capital
H1 2026 / shared15.40
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 capitalized interest
h1_capitalized_interest
H1 2026 / shared27.90
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 capitalized total
h1_capitalized_total
H1 2026 / shared802.40
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 cash capex
h1_cash_capex
H1 2026 / shared631.56
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 lease principal
h1_lease_principal
H1 2026 / shared2.45
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 funding
h1_funding
H1 2026 / shared1,031.42
USD_millions
reported: No operating revenue in development period; funding is DOE and equity proceeds less cash financing fees, before separately deducted lease principal. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared4.12
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 net income
h1_net_income
H1 2026 / shared6.29
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 common income
h1_common_income
H1 2026 / shared1.74
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 doe draw
h1_doe_draw
H1 2026 / shared774.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
H1 atm
h1_atm
H1 2026 / shared258.22
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; capitalized-cost table is rounded. Primary source · 2026-08-13
PP&E and lease cash
h1_capital_cash
H1 2026 / shared634.01
USD_millions
derived: Cash purchases, not accrual additions. Formula: sum(h1_cash_capex, h1_lease_principal).
H1 cash after PP&E and lease principal
h1_cash_after_capex
H1 2026 / shared-657.84
USD_millions
derived: Before new external funding. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capital_cash).
H1 consolidated cash change
h1_cash_after_funding
H1 2026 / shared373.58
USD_millions
derived: Reconciles total cash including restricted accounts. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, h1_funding).
H1 capitalized costs less cash PP&E
h1_accrual_cash_gap
H1 2026 / shared170.84
USD_millions
derived: Includes noncash interest, invoice timing and other accounting differences; not a complete payable rollforward. Formula: subtract(h1_capitalized_total, h1_cash_capex).
cash
cash
June / subsequent events / shared822.78
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
restricted
restricted
June / subsequent events / shared456.41
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
jv cash
jv_cash
June / subsequent events / shared530.30
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
construction cumulative
construction_cumulative
June / subsequent events / shared1,621.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
construction budget
construction_budget
June / subsequent events / shared2,930.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
doe principal capacity
doe_principal_capacity
June / subsequent events / shared1,970.00
USD_millions
reported: Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Primary source · 2026-08-13
doe drawn
doe_drawn
June / subsequent events / shared1,209.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
orion original remaining
orion_original_remaining
June / subsequent events / shared97.50
USD_millions
reported: Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Primary source · 2026-08-13
yorkville closed
yorkville_closed
June / subsequent events / shared150.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
yorkville optional
yorkville_optional
June / subsequent events / shared25.00
USD_millions
reported: Orion amount excludes subsequent PIK; facility/optional amounts are not cash receipts. Primary source · 2026-08-13
subsequent atm
subsequent_atm
June / subsequent events / shared4.20
USD_millions
reported: Reported project/financing reference; June cash includes separate restrictions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
FY2026 capitalized cost guidance low
annual_capital_guide_low
FY2026 / shared1,300.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-13
FY2026 capitalized cost guidance high
annual_capital_guide_high
FY2026 / shared1,600.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-13
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 capitalized cost guidance endpoint sum
annual_capital_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared2,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(annual_capital_guide_low, annual_capital_guide_high).
FY2026 capitalized cost guidance midpoint
annual_capital_guide
FY2026 / shared1,450.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(annual_capital_guide_sum, two).
Lithium sales
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / downside18.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-18.75
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / downside-10.25
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside-13.25
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_earnings, downside_2026q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2026q3_construction
2026Q3 / downside420.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2026q3_other_capital
2026Q3 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2026q3_capitalized_interest
2026Q3 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2026q3_capitalized_total
2026Q3 / downside444.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q3_other_capital, downside_2026q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2026q3_payment_timing
2026Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2026q3_cash_capex
2026Q3 / downside511.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q3_other_capital, downside_2026q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2026q3_capital_cash
2026Q3 / downside512.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_capex, downside_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / downside-525.55
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2026q3_doe_draw
2026Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2026q3_gross_funding
2026Q3 / downside254.20
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_doe_draw, yorkville_closed, subsequent_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2026q3_financing_fees
2026Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2026q3_funding
2026Q3 / downside252.20
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_funding, downside_2026q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / downside-273.35
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2026q3_cumulative_construction
2026Q3 / downside2,041.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2026q3_cumulative_doe
2026Q3 / downside1,309.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / downside21.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-21.25
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside2.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / downside-12.45
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside-16.45
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_earnings, downside_2026q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2026q4_construction
2026Q4 / downside430.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2026q4_other_capital
2026Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2026q4_capitalized_interest
2026Q4 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2026q4_capitalized_total
2026Q4 / downside456.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2026q4_other_capital, downside_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2026q4_payment_timing
2026Q4 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2026q4_cash_capex
2026Q4 / downside502.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2026q4_other_capital, downside_2026q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2026q4_capital_cash
2026Q4 / downside503.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_capex, downside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / downside-519.75
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2026q4_doe_draw
2026Q4 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
downside_2026q4_new_debenture
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
downside_2026q4_atm
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2026q4_gross_funding
2026Q4 / downside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_new_debenture, downside_2026q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2026q4_financing_fees
2026Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2026q4_funding
2026Q4 / downside149.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_funding, downside_2026q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / downside-370.75
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2026q4_cumulative_construction
2026Q4 / downside2,471.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2026q4_cumulative_doe
2026Q4 / downside1,459.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / downside23.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-23.75
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside3.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / downside-17.65
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-22.65
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_earnings, downside_2027q1_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2027q1_construction
2027Q1 / downside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2027q1_other_capital
2027Q1 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2027q1_capitalized_interest
2027Q1 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2027q1_capitalized_total
2027Q1 / downside333.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q1_other_capital, downside_2027q1_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2027q1_payment_timing
2027Q1 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q1_cash_capex
2027Q1 / downside354.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q1_other_capital, downside_2027q1_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2027q1_capital_cash
2027Q1 / downside355.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_capex, downside_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / downside-377.95
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2027q1_doe_draw
2027Q1 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
downside_2027q1_new_debenture
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
downside_2027q1_atm
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2027q1_gross_funding
2027Q1 / downside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_doe_draw, downside_2027q1_new_debenture, downside_2027q1_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2027q1_financing_fees
2027Q1 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2027q1_funding
2027Q1 / downside149.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_funding, downside_2027q1_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / downside-228.95
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q1_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2027q1_cumulative_construction
2027Q1 / downside2,771.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2027q1_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2027q1_cumulative_doe
2027Q1 / downside1,609.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_doe_draw, downside_2027q1_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / downside26.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-26.25
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / downside-19.85
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-25.85
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_earnings, downside_2027q2_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2027q2_construction
2027Q2 / downside260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2027q2_other_capital
2027Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2027q2_capitalized_interest
2027Q2 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2027q2_capitalized_total
2027Q2 / downside297.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_construction, downside_2027q2_other_capital, downside_2027q2_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2027q2_payment_timing
2027Q2 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q2_cash_capex
2027Q2 / downside295.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_construction, downside_2027q2_other_capital, downside_2027q2_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2027q2_capital_cash
2027Q2 / downside296.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_capex, downside_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / downside-322.15
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2027q2_doe_draw
2027Q2 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
downside_2027q2_new_debenture
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
downside_2027q2_atm
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2027q2_gross_funding
2027Q2 / downside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_doe_draw, downside_2027q2_new_debenture, downside_2027q2_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2027q2_financing_fees
2027Q2 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2027q2_funding
2027Q2 / downside149.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_funding, downside_2027q2_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / downside-173.15
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q2_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2027q2_cumulative_construction
2027Q2 / downside3,031.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q2_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2027q2_cumulative_doe
2027Q2 / downside1,759.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_doe_draw, downside_2027q1_doe_draw, downside_2027q2_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / downside28.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-28.75
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / downside-22.05
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-29.05
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_earnings, downside_2027q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2027q3_construction
2027Q3 / downside210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2027q3_other_capital
2027Q3 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2027q3_capitalized_interest
2027Q3 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2027q3_capitalized_total
2027Q3 / downside250.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_construction, downside_2027q3_other_capital, downside_2027q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2027q3_payment_timing
2027Q3 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q3_cash_capex
2027Q3 / downside256.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_construction, downside_2027q3_other_capital, downside_2027q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2027q3_capital_cash
2027Q3 / downside257.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_capex, downside_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / downside-286.35
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2027q3_doe_draw
2027Q3 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
downside_2027q3_new_debenture
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
downside_2027q3_atm
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2027q3_gross_funding
2027Q3 / downside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_doe_draw, downside_2027q3_new_debenture, downside_2027q3_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2027q3_financing_fees
2027Q3 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2027q3_funding
2027Q3 / downside149.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_funding, downside_2027q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / downside-137.35
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2027q3_cumulative_construction
2027Q3 / downside3,241.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q2_construction, downside_2027q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2027q3_cumulative_doe
2027Q3 / downside1,909.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_doe_draw, downside_2027q1_doe_draw, downside_2027q2_doe_draw, downside_2027q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
downside_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / downside31.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside-31.25
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
downside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / downside-24.25
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
downside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-32.25
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_earnings, downside_2027q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
downside_2027q4_construction
2027Q4 / downside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
downside_2027q4_other_capital
2027Q4 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
downside_2027q4_capitalized_interest
2027Q4 / downside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
downside_2027q4_capitalized_total
2027Q4 / downside225.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_construction, downside_2027q4_other_capital, downside_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
downside_2027q4_payment_timing
2027Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q4_cash_capex
2027Q4 / downside218.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_construction, downside_2027q4_other_capital, downside_2027q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
downside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / downside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
downside_2027q4_capital_cash
2027Q4 / downside219.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_capex, downside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / downside-251.55
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
downside_2027q4_doe_draw
2027Q4 / downside61.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
downside_2027q4_new_debenture
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
downside_2027q4_atm
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
downside_2027q4_gross_funding
2027Q4 / downside61.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_doe_draw, downside_2027q4_new_debenture, downside_2027q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
downside_2027q4_financing_fees
2027Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
downside_2027q4_funding
2027Q4 / downside60.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_funding, downside_2027q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / downside-191.55
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
downside_2027q4_cumulative_construction
2027Q4 / downside3,421.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction, downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q2_construction, downside_2027q3_construction, downside_2027q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
downside_2027q4_cumulative_doe
2027Q4 / downside1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, downside_2026q3_doe_draw, downside_2026q4_doe_draw, downside_2027q1_doe_draw, downside_2027q2_doe_draw, downside_2027q3_doe_draw, downside_2027q4_doe_draw).
Lithium revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-66.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside-53.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
downside_fy2026_construction
FY2026 / downside1,609.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_construction, downside_2026q3_construction, downside_2026q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
downside_fy2026_other_capital
FY2026 / downside38.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_capital, downside_2026q3_other_capital, downside_2026q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
downside_fy2026_capitalized_interest
FY2026 / downside54.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_interest, downside_2026q3_capitalized_interest, downside_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
downside_fy2026_capitalized_total
FY2026 / downside1,702.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_total, downside_2026q3_capitalized_total, downside_2026q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_capex
FY2026 / downside1,644.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / downside5.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, downside_2026q3_lease_principal, downside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / downside-1,703.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
downside_fy2026_funding
FY2026 / downside1,432.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_funding, downside_2026q3_funding, downside_2026q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / downside-270.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Lithium revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-110.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-109.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
downside_fy2027_construction
FY2027 / downside950.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_construction, downside_2027q2_construction, downside_2027q3_construction, downside_2027q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
downside_fy2027_other_capital
FY2027 / downside63.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_capital, downside_2027q2_other_capital, downside_2027q3_other_capital, downside_2027q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
downside_fy2027_capitalized_interest
FY2027 / downside92.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capitalized_interest, downside_2027q2_capitalized_interest, downside_2027q3_capitalized_interest, downside_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
downside_fy2027_capitalized_total
FY2027 / downside1,105.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capitalized_total, downside_2027q2_capitalized_total, downside_2027q3_capitalized_total, downside_2027q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_capex
FY2027 / downside1,123.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / downside5.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_lease_principal, downside_2027q2_lease_principal, downside_2027q3_lease_principal, downside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / downside-1,238.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
downside_fy2027_funding
FY2027 / downside507.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_funding, downside_2027q2_funding, downside_2027q3_funding, downside_2027q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / downside-731.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Lithium sales
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base-15.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / base-6.50
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base-9.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_earnings, base_2026q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2026q3_construction
2026Q3 / base325.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2026q3_other_capital
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2026q3_capitalized_interest
2026Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2026q3_capitalized_total
2026Q3 / base347.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q3_other_capital, base_2026q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2026q3_payment_timing
2026Q3 / base65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2026q3_cash_capex
2026Q3 / base400.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q3_other_capital, base_2026q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2026q3_capital_cash
2026Q3 / base401.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_capex, base_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / base-410.80
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2026q3_doe_draw
2026Q3 / base250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2026q3_gross_funding
2026Q3 / base404.20
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_doe_draw, yorkville_closed, subsequent_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2026q3_financing_fees
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2026q3_funding
2026Q3 / base402.20
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_funding, base_2026q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / base-8.60
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_after_capex, base_2026q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2026q3_cumulative_construction
2026Q3 / base1,946.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2026q3_cumulative_doe
2026Q3 / base1,459.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base-17.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base2.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / base-8.20
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base-12.20
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_earnings, base_2026q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2026q4_construction
2026Q4 / base290.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2026q4_other_capital
2026Q4 / base9.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2026q4_capitalized_interest
2026Q4 / base10.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2026q4_capitalized_total
2026Q4 / base310.60
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_construction, base_2026q4_other_capital, base_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2026q4_payment_timing
2026Q4 / base49.50
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2026q4_cash_capex
2026Q4 / base350.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_construction, base_2026q4_other_capital, base_2026q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2026q4_capital_cash
2026Q4 / base351.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_capex, base_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / base-363.50
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2026q4_doe_draw
2026Q4 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
base_2026q4_new_debenture
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
base_2026q4_atm
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2026q4_gross_funding
2026Q4 / base200.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_doe_draw, base_2026q4_new_debenture, base_2026q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2026q4_financing_fees
2026Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2026q4_funding
2026Q4 / base199.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_funding, base_2026q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / base-164.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_after_capex, base_2026q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2026q4_cumulative_construction
2026Q4 / base2,237.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2026q4_cumulative_doe
2026Q4 / base1,659.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw, base_2026q4_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base-19.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base3.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / base-12.90
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base-17.90
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_earnings, base_2027q1_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2027q1_construction
2027Q1 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2027q1_other_capital
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2027q1_capitalized_interest
2027Q1 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2027q1_capitalized_total
2027Q1 / base224.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q1_other_capital, base_2027q1_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2027q1_payment_timing
2027Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q1_cash_capex
2027Q1 / base230.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q1_other_capital, base_2027q1_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2027q1_capital_cash
2027Q1 / base231.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_capex, base_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / base-249.20
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2027q1_doe_draw
2027Q1 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
base_2027q1_new_debenture
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
base_2027q1_atm
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2027q1_gross_funding
2027Q1 / base200.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_doe_draw, base_2027q1_new_debenture, base_2027q1_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2027q1_financing_fees
2027Q1 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2027q1_funding
2027Q1 / base199.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_funding, base_2027q1_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / base-50.20
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capex, base_2027q1_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2027q1_cumulative_construction
2027Q1 / base2,437.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction, base_2027q1_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2027q1_cumulative_doe
2027Q1 / base1,859.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw, base_2026q4_doe_draw, base_2027q1_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base-21.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / base-14.60
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base-20.60
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_earnings, base_2027q2_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2027q2_construction
2027Q2 / base210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2027q2_other_capital
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2027q2_capitalized_interest
2027Q2 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2027q2_capitalized_total
2027Q2 / base236.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_construction, base_2027q2_other_capital, base_2027q2_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2027q2_payment_timing
2027Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q2_cash_capex
2027Q2 / base235.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_construction, base_2027q2_other_capital, base_2027q2_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2027q2_capital_cash
2027Q2 / base236.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_capex, base_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / base-256.90
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2027q2_doe_draw
2027Q2 / base111.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
base_2027q2_new_debenture
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
base_2027q2_atm
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2027q2_gross_funding
2027Q2 / base111.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_doe_draw, base_2027q2_new_debenture, base_2027q2_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2027q2_financing_fees
2027Q2 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2027q2_funding
2027Q2 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_funding, base_2027q2_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / base-146.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_after_capex, base_2027q2_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2027q2_cumulative_construction
2027Q2 / base2,647.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction, base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q2_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2027q2_cumulative_doe
2027Q2 / base1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw, base_2026q4_doe_draw, base_2027q1_doe_draw, base_2027q2_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base-23.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / base-16.30
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base-23.30
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_earnings, base_2027q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2027q3_construction
2027Q3 / base170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2027q3_other_capital
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2027q3_capitalized_interest
2027Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2027q3_capitalized_total
2027Q3 / base198.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_construction, base_2027q3_other_capital, base_2027q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2027q3_payment_timing
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q3_cash_capex
2027Q3 / base190.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_construction, base_2027q3_other_capital, base_2027q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2027q3_capital_cash
2027Q3 / base191.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_capex, base_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / base-214.60
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2027q3_doe_draw
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
base_2027q3_new_debenture
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
base_2027q3_atm
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2027q3_gross_funding
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_doe_draw, base_2027q3_new_debenture, base_2027q3_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2027q3_financing_fees
2027Q3 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2027q3_funding
2027Q3 / base-1.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_funding, base_2027q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / base-215.60
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_after_capex, base_2027q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2027q3_cumulative_construction
2027Q3 / base2,817.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction, base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q2_construction, base_2027q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2027q3_cumulative_doe
2027Q3 / base1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw, base_2026q4_doe_draw, base_2027q1_doe_draw, base_2027q2_doe_draw, base_2027q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
base_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base-25.00
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
base_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
base_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / base-18.00
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
base_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base-26.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_earnings, base_2027q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
base_2027q4_construction
2027Q4 / base112.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
base_2027q4_other_capital
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
base_2027q4_capitalized_interest
2027Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
base_2027q4_capitalized_total
2027Q4 / base142.40
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_construction, base_2027q4_other_capital, base_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
base_2027q4_payment_timing
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q4_cash_capex
2027Q4 / base132.40
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_construction, base_2027q4_other_capital, base_2027q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
base_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / base1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
base_2027q4_capital_cash
2027Q4 / base133.70
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_capex, base_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
base_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / base-159.70
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
base_2027q4_doe_draw
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
base_2027q4_new_debenture
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
base_2027q4_atm
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
base_2027q4_gross_funding
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_doe_draw, base_2027q4_new_debenture, base_2027q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
base_2027q4_financing_fees
2027Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
base_2027q4_funding
2027Q4 / base-1.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_funding, base_2027q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
base_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / base-160.70
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_after_capex, base_2027q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
base_2027q4_cumulative_construction
2027Q4 / base2,930.00
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction, base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q2_construction, base_2027q3_construction, base_2027q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
base_2027q4_cumulative_doe
2027Q4 / base1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, base_2026q3_doe_draw, base_2026q4_doe_draw, base_2027q1_doe_draw, base_2027q2_doe_draw, base_2027q3_doe_draw, base_2027q4_doe_draw).
Lithium revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base-58.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base-45.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
base_fy2026_construction
FY2026 / base1,375.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_construction, base_2026q3_construction, base_2026q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
base_fy2026_other_capital
FY2026 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_capital, base_2026q3_other_capital, base_2026q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
base_fy2026_capitalized_interest
FY2026 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_interest, base_2026q3_capitalized_interest, base_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
base_fy2026_capitalized_total
FY2026 / base1,460.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_total, base_2026q3_capitalized_total, base_2026q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_capex
FY2026 / base1,381.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_capex, base_2026q3_cash_capex, base_2026q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
base_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / base5.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, base_2026q3_lease_principal, base_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / base-1,432.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, base_2026q3_cash_after_capex, base_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
base_fy2026_funding
FY2026 / base1,632.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_funding, base_2026q3_funding, base_2026q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / base200.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, base_2026q3_cash_after_funding, base_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Lithium revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base-88.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base-87.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
base_fy2027_construction
FY2027 / base692.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_construction, base_2027q2_construction, base_2027q3_construction, base_2027q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
base_fy2027_other_capital
FY2027 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_capital, base_2027q2_other_capital, base_2027q3_other_capital, base_2027q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
base_fy2027_capitalized_interest
FY2027 / base68.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capitalized_interest, base_2027q2_capitalized_interest, base_2027q3_capitalized_interest, base_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
base_fy2027_capitalized_total
FY2027 / base800.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capitalized_total, base_2027q2_capitalized_total, base_2027q3_capitalized_total, base_2027q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_capex
FY2027 / base787.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_capex, base_2027q2_cash_capex, base_2027q3_cash_capex, base_2027q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
base_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / base5.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_lease_principal, base_2027q2_lease_principal, base_2027q3_lease_principal, base_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / base-880.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capex, base_2027q2_cash_after_capex, base_2027q3_cash_after_capex, base_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
base_fy2027_funding
FY2027 / base307.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_funding, base_2027q2_funding, base_2027q3_funding, base_2027q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / base-573.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_funding, base_2027q2_cash_after_funding, base_2027q3_cash_after_funding, base_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Lithium sales
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2026q3_operating_cost
2026Q3 / upside13.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside-13.50
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / upside-5.00
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2026q3_working_cash
2026Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside-8.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_earnings, upside_2026q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2026q3_construction
2026Q3 / upside260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2026q3_other_capital
2026Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2026q3_capitalized_interest
2026Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2026q3_capitalized_total
2026Q3 / upside278.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q3_other_capital, upside_2026q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2026q3_payment_timing
2026Q3 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2026q3_cash_capex
2026Q3 / upside313.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q3_other_capital, upside_2026q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2026q3_capital_cash
2026Q3 / upside314.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_capex, upside_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / upside-322.30
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2026q3_doe_draw
2026Q3 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2026q3_gross_funding
2026Q3 / upside404.20
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_doe_draw, yorkville_closed, subsequent_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2026q3_financing_fees
2026Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2026q3_funding
2026Q3 / upside402.20
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_funding, upside_2026q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / upside79.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2026q3_cumulative_construction
2026Q3 / upside1,881.70
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2026q3_cumulative_doe
2026Q3 / upside1,459.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2026q4_operating_cost
2026Q4 / upside15.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside-15.30
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside2.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / upside-6.50
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2026q4_working_cash
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside-10.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_earnings, upside_2026q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2026q4_construction
2026Q4 / upside230.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2026q4_other_capital
2026Q4 / upside8.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2026q4_capitalized_interest
2026Q4 / upside15.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2026q4_capitalized_total
2026Q4 / upside254.60
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2026q4_other_capital, upside_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2026q4_payment_timing
2026Q4 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2026q4_cash_capex
2026Q4 / upside274.50
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2026q4_other_capital, upside_2026q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2026q4_capital_cash
2026Q4 / upside275.80
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_capex, upside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / upside-286.30
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2026q4_doe_draw
2026Q4 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
upside_2026q4_new_debenture
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
upside_2026q4_atm
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2026q4_gross_funding
2026Q4 / upside250.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_new_debenture, upside_2026q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2026q4_financing_fees
2026Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2026q4_funding
2026Q4 / upside249.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_funding, upside_2026q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / upside-37.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2026q4_cumulative_construction
2026Q4 / upside2,112.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2026q4_cumulative_doe
2026Q4 / upside1,709.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2027q1_operating_cost
2027Q1 / upside17.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside-17.10
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside3.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / upside-11.00
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside-16.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_earnings, upside_2027q1_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2027q1_construction
2027Q1 / upside260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2027q1_other_capital
2027Q1 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2027q1_capitalized_interest
2027Q1 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2027q1_capitalized_total
2027Q1 / upside283.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q1_other_capital, upside_2027q1_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2027q1_payment_timing
2027Q1 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q1_cash_capex
2027Q1 / upside284.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q1_other_capital, upside_2027q1_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2027q1_capital_cash
2027Q1 / upside285.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_capex, upside_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / upside-301.30
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2027q1_doe_draw
2027Q1 / upside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
upside_2027q1_new_debenture
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
upside_2027q1_atm
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2027q1_gross_funding
2027Q1 / upside200.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_doe_draw, upside_2027q1_new_debenture, upside_2027q1_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2027q1_financing_fees
2027Q1 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2027q1_funding
2027Q1 / upside199.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_funding, upside_2027q1_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / upside-102.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q1_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2027q1_cumulative_construction
2027Q1 / upside2,372.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2027q1_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2027q1_cumulative_doe
2027Q1 / upside1,909.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_doe_draw, upside_2027q1_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2027q2_operating_cost
2027Q2 / upside18.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside-18.90
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / upside-12.50
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside-18.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_earnings, upside_2027q2_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2027q2_construction
2027Q2 / upside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2027q2_other_capital
2027Q2 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2027q2_capitalized_interest
2027Q2 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2027q2_capitalized_total
2027Q2 / upside265.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_construction, upside_2027q2_other_capital, upside_2027q2_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2027q2_payment_timing
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q2_cash_capex
2027Q2 / upside259.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_construction, upside_2027q2_other_capital, upside_2027q2_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2027q2_capital_cash
2027Q2 / upside260.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_capex, upside_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / upside-278.80
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2027q2_doe_draw
2027Q2 / upside61.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
upside_2027q2_new_debenture
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
upside_2027q2_atm
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2027q2_gross_funding
2027Q2 / upside61.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_doe_draw, upside_2027q2_new_debenture, upside_2027q2_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2027q2_financing_fees
2027Q2 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2027q2_funding
2027Q2 / upside60.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_funding, upside_2027q2_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / upside-218.80
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q2_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2027q2_cumulative_construction
2027Q2 / upside2,612.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q2_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2027q2_cumulative_doe
2027Q2 / upside1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_doe_draw, upside_2027q1_doe_draw, upside_2027q2_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2027q3_operating_cost
2027Q3 / upside20.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside-20.70
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / upside-14.00
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside-21.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_earnings, upside_2027q3_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2027q3_construction
2027Q3 / upside190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2027q3_other_capital
2027Q3 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2027q3_capitalized_interest
2027Q3 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2027q3_capitalized_total
2027Q3 / upside217.00
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_construction, upside_2027q3_other_capital, upside_2027q3_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2027q3_payment_timing
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q3_cash_capex
2027Q3 / upside209.00
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_construction, upside_2027q3_other_capital, upside_2027q3_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2027q3_capital_cash
2027Q3 / upside210.30
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_capex, upside_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / upside-231.30
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2027q3_doe_draw
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
upside_2027q3_new_debenture
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
upside_2027q3_atm
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2027q3_gross_funding
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_doe_draw, upside_2027q3_new_debenture, upside_2027q3_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2027q3_financing_fees
2027Q3 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2027q3_funding
2027Q3 / upside-1.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_funding, upside_2027q3_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / upside-232.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q3_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2027q3_cumulative_construction
2027Q3 / upside2,802.60
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q2_construction, upside_2027q3_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2027q3_cumulative_doe
2027Q3 / upside1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_doe_draw, upside_2027q1_doe_draw, upside_2027q2_doe_draw, upside_2027q3_doe_draw).
Lithium sales
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No sales assumed before commissioning and customer acceptance; mechanical completion does not recognize revenue.
Corporate and expensed project costs
upside_2027q4_operating_cost
2027Q4 / upside22.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside-22.50
USD_millions
derived: Construction cost is capitalized separately; fair-value gains do not create operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_operating_cost).
Noncash SBC
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus SBC and cash interest income
upside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / upside-15.50
USD_millions
derived: Interest on constrained cash is not assumed freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_interest_income).
Other operating working-capital cash use
upside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside-23.50
USD_millions
derived: Assumes no cash payment of DOE or PIK corporate coupons in the horizon. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_earnings, upside_2027q4_working_cash).
Capitalized construction
upside_2027q4_construction
2027Q4 / upside127.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other capitalized costs
upside_2027q4_other_capital
2027Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capitalized noncash interest
upside_2027q4_capitalized_interest
2027Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total capitalized costs
upside_2027q4_capitalized_total
2027Q4 / upside156.40
USD_millions
derived: Accrual project cost; cash payment is calculated independently. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_construction, upside_2027q4_other_capital, upside_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Payment timing and other cash/accrual difference
upside_2027q4_payment_timing
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive means cash exceeds current non-interest capital additions; includes invoice settlement and other differences.
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q4_cash_capex
2027Q4 / upside141.40
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized noncash interest is not paid again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_construction, upside_2027q4_other_capital, upside_2027q4_payment_timing).
Finance-lease cash principal
upside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / upside1.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and finance-lease cash
upside_2027q4_capital_cash
2027Q4 / upside142.70
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction in financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_capex, upside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and leases
upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / upside-166.20
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash consumption before external funding. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capital_cash).
Conditional DOE principal advance
upside_2027q4_doe_draw
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk draw schedule subject to conditions; not a receipt or unrestricted parent cash.
Additional debenture proceeds
upside_2027q4_new_debenture
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional equity proceeds
upside_2027q4_atm
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DOE and issued equity/debenture proceeds
upside_2027q4_gross_funding
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Only disclosed completed corporate proceeds plus conditional DOE scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_doe_draw, upside_2027q4_new_debenture, upside_2027q4_atm).
Cash financing fees
upside_2027q4_financing_fees
2027Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Financing net of fees before lease principal
upside_2027q4_funding
2027Q4 / upside-1.00
USD_millions
derived: No optional Yorkville $25M or new Orion delayed draw included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_funding, upside_2027q4_financing_fees).
Consolidated cash change proxy
upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / upside-167.20
USD_millions
derived: Includes constrained project cash; not parent cash available for distribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q4_funding).
Cumulative budget-eligible construction
upside_2027q4_cumulative_construction
2027Q4 / upside2,930.00
USD_millions
derived: Tracks original Phase 1 scope against $2.93B budget, before other capital and interest. Formula: sum(construction_cumulative, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction, upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q2_construction, upside_2027q3_construction, upside_2027q4_construction).
Cumulative DOE cash advances
upside_2027q4_cumulative_doe
2027Q4 / upside1,970.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes noncash capitalized interest. Formula: sum(doe_drawn, upside_2026q3_doe_draw, upside_2026q4_doe_draw, upside_2027q1_doe_draw, upside_2027q2_doe_draw, upside_2027q3_doe_draw, upside_2027q4_doe_draw).
Lithium revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside-55.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside-42.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
upside_fy2026_construction
FY2026 / upside1,250.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_construction, upside_2026q3_construction, upside_2026q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
upside_fy2026_other_capital
FY2026 / upside32.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_capital, upside_2026q3_other_capital, upside_2026q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
upside_fy2026_capitalized_interest
FY2026 / upside53.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_interest, upside_2026q3_capitalized_interest, upside_2026q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
upside_fy2026_capitalized_total
FY2026 / upside1,335.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capitalized_total, upside_2026q3_capitalized_total, upside_2026q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_capex
FY2026 / upside1,219.06
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_lease_principal
FY2026 / upside5.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_lease_principal, upside_2026q3_lease_principal, upside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / upside-1,266.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
upside_fy2026_funding
FY2026 / upside1,682.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_funding, upside_2026q3_funding, upside_2026q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / upside416.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Lithium revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Operating income ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside-79.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside-79.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Capitalized construction ($M)
upside_fy2027_construction
FY2027 / upside817.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_construction, upside_2027q2_construction, upside_2027q3_construction, upside_2027q4_construction).
Other capitalized costs ($M)
upside_fy2027_other_capital
FY2027 / upside36.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_capital, upside_2027q2_other_capital, upside_2027q3_other_capital, upside_2027q4_other_capital).
Capitalized interest ($M)
upside_fy2027_capitalized_interest
FY2027 / upside68.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capitalized_interest, upside_2027q2_capitalized_interest, upside_2027q3_capitalized_interest, upside_2027q4_capitalized_interest).
Total capitalized costs ($M)
upside_fy2027_capitalized_total
FY2027 / upside921.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capitalized_total, upside_2027q2_capitalized_total, upside_2027q3_capitalized_total, upside_2027q4_capitalized_total).
Cash PP&E spending ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_capex
FY2027 / upside893.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_capex).
Finance-lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_lease_principal
FY2027 / upside5.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_lease_principal, upside_2027q2_lease_principal, upside_2027q3_lease_principal, upside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after PP&E and lease principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / upside-977.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
External financing net of fees ($M)
upside_fy2027_funding
FY2027 / upside257.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_funding, upside_2027q2_funding, upside_2027q3_funding, upside_2027q4_funding).
Consolidated cash change proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / upside-720.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).

Model boundaries

Funding the construction path to Thacker Pass

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can Thacker Pass reach commissioning within the revised capital and conditional funding envelope?

H1 capitalized costs were $802.4M, including $759.1M construction and $27.9M interest, while cash PP&E was $631.6M. Full-year capitalized guidance is $1.3-1.6B. Construction incurred through June was $1.622B against the $2.93B Phase 1 budget. The base scenario reaches that construction budget by late 2027 without assuming commercial sales. June cash was $822.8M plus $456.4M restricted; $530.3M of combined cash sat in the consolidated JV. DOE cash advances totaled $1.209B against $1.97B principal capacity, with repayments starting January 2029. August Yorkville issuance supplied $150M; the optional $25M is not received cash. Orion notes carry 9.875% interest and production-payment rights, and Yorkville conversion terms introduce additional dilution sensitivity.

The competing explanation

Delays can increase corporate burn and construction cost while financing conditions restrict draws. Even successful construction leaves commissioning, lithium pricing, partner ownership and creditor/royalty claims between project output and common-shareholder cash.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Added construction/cash reconciliation, conditional draw limits and completed August financing.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed mid-range, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-3.1-0.1+3.048%
5 sessions-7.2+0.2+6.850%
10 sessions-11.4-0.4+8.647%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-11 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-13 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  2. [2] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-115081, 10-K filed 2026-03-19; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  3. [3] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  4. [4] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  5. [5] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  6. [6] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  7. [7] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  8. [8] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  9. [9] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  10. [10] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-115081, 10-K filed 2026-03-19; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  11. [11] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0000950170-25-071963, 10-Q filed 2025-05-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  12. [12] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0000950170-25-108408, 10-Q filed 2025-08-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  13. [13] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  14. [14] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  15. [15] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  16. [16] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  17. [17] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-115081, 10-K filed 2026-03-19; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  18. [18] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  19. [19] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  20. [20] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  21. [21] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-115081, 10-K filed 2026-03-19; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  22. [22] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  23. [23] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  24. [24] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-25-278738, 10-Q filed 2025-11-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  25. [25] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-115081, 10-K filed 2026-03-19; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  26. [26] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-222727, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json
  27. [27] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-347826, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:44+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001966983.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-20T00:11:45.094690+00:00 · authored 6236aec090fd · generated 9005450e222c · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard