ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · TRANSPORT, INDUSTRIALS & DEFENSE

$KTOS

KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, INC. · Nasdaq · SIC 3760 · CIK 1069258 · revision 5 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Kratos supplies defense and national-security products through Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems. Its businesses span engines, rocket support, microwave electronics, communications and uncrewed platforms. Government contracts drive revenue, but internally funded development, inventory and factories can consume cash before awards or deliveries. Nomad and Orbit are already included in Government Solutions, making reported and organic growth different measures.

Three drivers

  1. Funded contract conversion and production mix
  2. Government Solutions scale and unmanned platform adoption
  3. Unbilled work, inventory and internally funded capacity

Thesis

Our view

Q2 sales growth was 30.5%, with 19.1% organic growth, while operating loss was $1.6M. Demand is strong, but the company is investing ahead of it. H1 CFO was negative $38.4M and gross capex $37.1M; the $1,348.4M equity raise explains much of the large cash balance. Asset sales improve cash after investment, not the underlying operating cash result.

What changes it

Monitor funded orders, contract cost execution and collections against factory and inventory spending. Distinguish announced capacity targets and the bid pipeline from customer-funded production, and reconcile FCF definitions before comparing periods.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-29
2024Q4
2024-12-29
2025Q1
2025-03-30
2025Q2
2025-06-29
2025Q3
2025-09-28
2025Q4
2025-12-28
2026Q1
2026-03-29
2026Q2
2026-06-28
Revenue ($M)275.91283.1†2302.63351.54347.61345.1†2371.03458.84
Gross profit ($M)69.2569.8†673.6773.8877.1583.4†689.67100.18
Operating income ($M)6.593.0†106.6113.7127.198.2†104.711-1.612
Net income ($M)3.2133.9†144.5152.9168.7135.9†1411.9154.416
EPS, diluted ($)0.02170.03180.02190.05170.07180.0219
Diluted shares (M)154.120156.221157.422172.920179.421190.122
Cash ($M)301.523329.324263.725783.626565.927560.6281,464.3291,437.628
Long-term debt ($M)177.030174.631172.232169.8330.0340.031
Cash from operations ($M)6.1†3545.6†36-29.237-11.7†38-13.3†3512.1†36-27.437-11.0†38
Capex ($M)
Free cash flow ($M)

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q3470.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4480.22026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1479.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2523.12026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Defense backlog conversion and the cash cost of capacity

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Separate Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems sales, preserving H1 actuals and using August revenue/adjusted EBITDA guidance as the current-year reference. FY2027 grows segment revenue and margins separately. Reconcile ordinary SBC, depreciation, intangible/development amortization and cash acquisition costs to operating income. Bridge cash investment in unbilled work and inventory to CFO. Keep gross capex, disposals, grants, equity proceeds and acquisition/JV spending distinct.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2026 revenue midpointFY20261,780.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpointFY2026174.50derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 CFO midpointFY202640.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 gross capex midpointFY2026130.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Company FY2026 FCF range midpointFY2026-95.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
H1 cash after gross capexH1 2026-75.50derived. Excludes proceeds from asset sales and grants.
H1 after asset disposalsH1 2026-62.00derived. Investing disposal proceeds are not CFO.
H1 after capital usesH1 2026-474.80derived. Before equity issuance and other financing movements.
Q2 company-owned aircraft disposal cash2026Q29.30reported. Used by the company in its Q2 FCF reconciliation, not revenue or CFO. Source · 2026-08-04
funded backlogJune 20261,572.00reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04
unfunded backlogJune 2026512.70reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04
pipelineJune 202615,000.00reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04
unbilled receivablesJune 2026405.40reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04
cashJune 20261,437.60reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04
H1 equity proceedsH1 20261,348.40reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
revolver drawnJune 20260.00reported. Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Source · 2026-08-04

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less gross capex ($M)Government Solutions revenue ($M)Gross capital expenditures ($M)Revenue ($M)Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Asset disposal proceeds ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
2026Q31.33-51.67368.5053.00446.5078.0099.010.0036.12-5.17-80.17-51.67
2026Q410.50-37.40332.7047.90414.7082.0092.050.0035.30-6.10-65.90-37.40
2027Q1-2.74-47.74337.4045.00411.7174.3191.320.0040.26-6.74-80.74-47.74
2027Q210.92-34.08368.0745.00449.1481.0799.620.0043.92-4.08-67.08-34.08
FY2026-26.58-164.581,369.30138.001,691.00321.70380.7613.50148.32-8.18-620.88-151.08
FY202750.99-129.011,533.62180.001,871.40337.79415.090.00182.99-11.01-261.01-129.01

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less gross capex ($M)Government Solutions revenue ($M)Gross capital expenditures ($M)Revenue ($M)Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Asset disposal proceeds ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
2026Q324.70-25.30387.0050.00470.0083.00113.630.0042.501.20-53.80-25.30
2026Q453.7010.80393.2042.90480.2087.00116.120.0055.1013.70-17.7010.80
2027Q126.47-11.03391.9137.50479.4887.57115.950.0054.477.47-44.03-11.03
2027Q241.423.92427.5437.50523.0795.53126.490.0059.4211.42-29.083.92
FY202640.00-90.001,448.30130.001,780.00331.70419.4513.50174.5018.00-546.30-76.50
FY2027175.6025.601,781.41150.002,179.45398.04527.050.00247.6053.60-106.4025.60

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less gross capex ($M)Government Solutions revenue ($M)Gross capital expenditures ($M)Revenue ($M)Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Asset disposal proceeds ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
2026Q336.10-13.90395.7550.00481.7586.00124.140.0045.904.60-42.40-13.90
2026Q470.8627.96419.9542.90512.9593.00132.200.0065.6624.26-0.5427.96
2027Q151.3011.30430.9040.00532.08101.19137.200.0069.3022.30-21.7011.30
2027Q267.6027.60470.0740.00580.45110.39149.670.0075.6027.60-5.4027.60
FY202668.56-61.441,483.80130.001,824.50340.70446.0313.50188.4631.96-517.74-47.94
FY2027283.01123.011,958.62160.002,418.56459.94623.630.00315.01121.01-8.99123.01
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared829.80
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 kgs
h1_kgs
H1 2026 / shared668.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 unmanned
h1_unmanned
H1 2026 / shared161.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 2026 / shared189.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 adjusted ebitda
h1_adjusted_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared76.90
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared3.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared-38.40
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared37.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 asset proceeds
h1_asset_proceeds
H1 2026 / shared13.50
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 grant
h1_grant
H1 2026 / shared2.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 acquisitions
h1_acquisitions
H1 2026 / shared346.80
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 jv
h1_jv
H1 2026 / shared6.90
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 withholding
h1_withholding
H1 2026 / shared59.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 lease principal
h1_lease_principal
H1 2026 / shared2.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared31.30
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 depreciation
h1_depreciation
H1 2026 / shared23.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 amortization
h1_amortization
H1 2026 / shared20.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 unbilled use
h1_unbilled_use
H1 2026 / shared104.30
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 inventory use
h1_inventory_use
H1 2026 / shared24.80
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 equity proceeds
h1_equity_proceeds
H1 2026 / shared1,348.40
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 cash after gross capex
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared-75.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes proceeds from asset sales and grants. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 after asset disposals
h1_cash_after_disposals
H1 2026 / shared-62.00
USD_millions
derived: Investing disposal proceeds are not CFO. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, h1_asset_proceeds).
H1 acquisition/JV and financing cash uses
h1_capital_uses
H1 2026 / shared414.80
USD_millions
derived: No equity issuance proceeds counted as operating earnings. Formula: sum(h1_acquisitions, h1_jv, h1_withholding, h1_lease_principal).
H1 cash after capital grant
h1_after_grant
H1 2026 / shared-60.00
USD_millions
derived: Grant belongs to investing cash. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_disposals, h1_grant).
H1 after capital uses
h1_cash_after_capital
H1 2026 / shared-474.80
USD_millions
derived: Before equity issuance and other financing movements. Formula: subtract(h1_after_grant, h1_capital_uses).
cash
cash
June 2026 / shared1,437.60
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
funded backlog
funded_backlog
June 2026 / shared1,572.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
unfunded backlog
unfunded_backlog
June 2026 / shared512.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
pipeline
pipeline
June 2026 / shared15,000.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
unbilled receivables
unbilled_receivables
June 2026 / shared405.40
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
inventory
inventory
June 2026 / shared235.90
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
customer billings
customer_billings
June 2026 / shared93.60
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
revolver limit
revolver_limit
June 2026 / shared300.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
revolver drawn
revolver_drawn
June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
domestic letters credit
domestic_letters_credit
June 2026 / shared2.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported balance or rounded backlog/pipeline reference; facility limit is not cash on hand. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Q2 company-owned aircraft disposal cash
q2_aircraft_cash
2026Q2 / shared9.30
USD_millions
reported: Used by the company in its Q2 FCF reconciliation, not revenue or CFO. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Funded plus unfunded backlog
backlog
June 2026 / shared2,084.70
USD_millions
derived: Rounded components; different certainty from bid pipeline. Formula: sum(funded_backlog, unfunded_backlog).
June backlog expected in remaining 2026
backlog_conversion
FY2026 / shared35.0%
ratio
management guidance: 35% expected in fiscal 2026, another 35% in 2027; remaining thereafter. Primary source · 2026-08-04
June backlog FY2026 conversion reference
backlog_2026_reference
FY2026 / shared729.64
USD_millions
derived: Subset of remaining performance obligations, not extra revenue. Formula: multiply(backlog, backlog_conversion).
FY2026 revenue low
fy26_revenue_guide_low
FY2026 / shared1,750.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 revenue high
fy26_revenue_guide_high
FY2026 / shared1,810.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 revenue endpoint sum
fy26_revenue_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared3,560.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_revenue_guide_low, fy26_revenue_guide_high).
FY2026 revenue midpoint
fy26_revenue_guide
FY2026 / shared1,780.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_revenue_guide_sum, two).
Q3 revenue low
q3_revenue_guide_low
2026Q3 / shared460.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Q3 revenue high
q3_revenue_guide_high
2026Q3 / shared480.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Q3 revenue endpoint sum
q3_revenue_guide_sum
2026Q3 / shared940.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_guide_low, q3_revenue_guide_high).
Q3 revenue midpoint
q3_revenue_guide
2026Q3 / shared470.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_guide_sum, two).
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA low
fy26_ebitda_guide_low
FY2026 / shared173.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA high
fy26_ebitda_guide_high
FY2026 / shared176.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA endpoint sum
fy26_ebitda_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared349.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_ebitda_guide_low, fy26_ebitda_guide_high).
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint
fy26_ebitda_guide
FY2026 / shared174.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
Q3 adjusted EBITDA low
q3_ebitda_guide_low
2026Q3 / shared40.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Q3 adjusted EBITDA high
q3_ebitda_guide_high
2026Q3 / shared45.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Q3 adjusted EBITDA endpoint sum
q3_ebitda_guide_sum
2026Q3 / shared85.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_ebitda_guide_low, q3_ebitda_guide_high).
Q3 adjusted EBITDA midpoint
q3_ebitda_guide
2026Q3 / shared42.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
FY2026 CFO low
fy26_cfo_guide_low
FY2026 / shared30.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 CFO high
fy26_cfo_guide_high
FY2026 / shared50.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 CFO endpoint sum
fy26_cfo_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared80.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_cfo_guide_low, fy26_cfo_guide_high).
FY2026 CFO midpoint
fy26_cfo_guide
FY2026 / shared40.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_cfo_guide_sum, two).
FY2026 gross capex low
fy26_capex_guide_low
FY2026 / shared125.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 gross capex high
fy26_capex_guide_high
FY2026 / shared135.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
FY2026 gross capex endpoint sum
fy26_capex_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared260.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_capex_guide_low, fy26_capex_guide_high).
FY2026 gross capex midpoint
fy26_capex_guide
FY2026 / shared130.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_capex_guide_sum, two).
Company FY2026 FCF range low
fy26_fcf_guide_low
FY2026 / shared-105.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Company FY2026 FCF range high
fy26_fcf_guide_high
FY2026 / shared-85.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Company FY2026 FCF range endpoint sum
fy26_fcf_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared-190.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_fcf_guide_low, fy26_fcf_guide_high).
Company FY2026 FCF range midpoint
fy26_fcf_guide
FY2026 / shared-95.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_fcf_guide_sum, two).
revenue / guidance midpoint
downside_revenue_factor
FY2026 / downside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 revenue
downside_fy26_revenue_target
FY2026 / downside1,691.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, downside_revenue_factor).
H2 revenue
downside_h2_revenue
H2 2026 / downside861.20
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_revenue_target, h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda / guidance midpoint
downside_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2026 / downside85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 adjusted_ebitda
downside_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2026 / downside148.32
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_ebitda_guide, downside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
downside_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 2026 / downside71.42
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 Unmanned sales
downside_unmanned_h2
H2 2026 / downside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation within consolidated guidance.
FY2026 Unmanned revenue
downside_fy26_unmanned
FY2026 / downside321.70
USD_millions
derived: Actual plus forecast. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, downside_unmanned_h2).
FY2026 KGS revenue
downside_fy26_kgs
FY2026 / downside1,369.30
USD_millions
derived: Nomad and Orbit included in the KGS perimeter. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_revenue_target, downside_fy26_unmanned).
FY2027 kgs growth multiplier
downside_kgs_growth
FY2027 / downside112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 kgs revenue
downside_fy27_kgs
FY2027 / downside1,533.62
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_kgs, downside_kgs_growth).
FY2027 unmanned growth multiplier
downside_unmanned_growth
FY2027 / downside105.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 unmanned revenue
downside_fy27_unmanned
FY2027 / downside337.79
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_unmanned, downside_unmanned_growth).
Revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside446.50
USD_millions
derived: Q3 company midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_revenue_factor).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2026q3_unmanned
2026Q3 / downside78.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2026q3_kgs
2026Q3 / downside368.50
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside36.12
USD_millions
derived: Q3 earnings reference. Formula: multiply(q3_ebitda_guide, downside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q3 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2026q3_kgs_gross
2026Q3 / downside81.07
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_kgs, downside_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q3 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2026q3_unmanned_gross
2026Q3 / downside17.94
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_unmanned, downside_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside99.01
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_kgs_gross, downside_2026q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2026q3_depreciation
2026Q3 / downside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2026q3_amortization
2026Q3 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside16.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2026q3_cash_exclusions
2026Q3 / downside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2026q3_exclusions
2026Q3 / downside41.30
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_depreciation, downside_2026q3_amortization, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-5.17
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / downside45.33
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_depreciation, downside_2026q3_amortization, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside44.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_working_capital, downside_2026q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside1.33
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside53.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-51.67
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2026q3_asset_proceeds
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals
2026Q3 / downside-51.67
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2026q3_grant
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2026q3_jv
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2026q3_withholding
2026Q3 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / downside28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_jv, downside_2026q3_withholding, downside_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2026q3_after_grants
2026Q3 / downside-51.67
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, downside_2026q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2026q3_cash_after_capital
2026Q3 / downside-80.17
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_after_grants, downside_2026q3_capital_uses).
Revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside414.70
USD_millions
derived: Annual less actual H1 and forecast Q3. Formula: subtract(downside_h2_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2026q4_unmanned
2026Q4 / downside82.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2026q4_kgs
2026Q4 / downside332.70
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside35.30
USD_millions
derived: Annual adjusted result less H1 and Q3. Formula: subtract(downside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2026q4_kgs_gross
2026Q4 / downside73.19
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_kgs, downside_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2026q4_unmanned_gross
2026Q4 / downside18.86
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_unmanned, downside_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside92.05
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_kgs_gross, downside_2026q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2026q4_depreciation
2026Q4 / downside14.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2026q4_amortization
2026Q4 / downside11.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside14.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / downside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2026q4_exclusions
2026Q4 / downside41.40
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_depreciation, downside_2026q4_amortization, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-6.10
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / downside44.50
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_depreciation, downside_2026q4_amortization, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside34.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_working_capital, downside_2026q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside10.50
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside47.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-37.40
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2026q4_asset_proceeds
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals
2026Q4 / downside-37.40
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2026q4_grant
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2026q4_jv
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2026q4_withholding
2026Q4 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / downside28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_jv, downside_2026q4_withholding, downside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2026q4_after_grants
2026Q4 / downside-37.40
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals, downside_2026q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2026q4_cash_after_capital
2026Q4 / downside-65.90
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_after_grants, downside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
downside_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2027q1_kgs
2027Q1 / downside337.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_kgs, downside_2027q1_weight).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2027q1_unmanned
2027Q1 / downside74.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_unmanned, downside_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside411.71
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_kgs, downside_2027q1_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
downside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / downside10.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside35.43
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_kgs, downside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
downside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / downside6.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside4.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_unmanned, downside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside40.26
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda, downside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2027q1_kgs_gross
2027Q1 / downside74.23
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_kgs, downside_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2027q1_unmanned_gross
2027Q1 / downside17.09
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_unmanned, downside_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside91.32
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_kgs_gross, downside_2027q1_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2027q1_depreciation
2027Q1 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2027q1_amortization
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2027q1_exclusions
2027Q1 / downside47.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_depreciation, downside_2027q1_amortization, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-6.74
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q1_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / downside48.26
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_depreciation, downside_2027q1_amortization, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside51.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_working_capital, downside_2027q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-2.74
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-47.74
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2027q1_asset_proceeds
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals
2027Q1 / downside-47.74
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2027q1_grant
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2027q1_jv
2027Q1 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2027q1_withholding
2027Q1 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_jv, downside_2027q1_withholding, downside_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2027q1_after_grants
2027Q1 / downside-47.74
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q1_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2027q1_cash_after_capital
2027Q1 / downside-80.74
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_after_grants, downside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
downside_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / downside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2027q2_kgs
2027Q2 / downside368.07
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_kgs, downside_2027q2_weight).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2027q2_unmanned
2027Q2 / downside81.07
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_unmanned, downside_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside449.14
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_kgs, downside_2027q2_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
downside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / downside10.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside38.65
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_kgs, downside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
downside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / downside6.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside5.27
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_unmanned, downside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside43.92
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda, downside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2027q2_kgs_gross
2027Q2 / downside80.97
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_kgs, downside_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2027q2_unmanned_gross
2027Q2 / downside18.65
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_unmanned, downside_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside99.62
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_kgs_gross, downside_2027q2_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2027q2_exclusions
2027Q2 / downside48.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_depreciation, downside_2027q2_amortization, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-4.08
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / downside51.92
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_depreciation, downside_2027q2_amortization, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside41.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_working_capital, downside_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside10.92
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-34.08
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2027q2_asset_proceeds
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals
2027Q2 / downside-34.08
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2027q2_grant
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2027q2_jv
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_jv, downside_2027q2_withholding, downside_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2027q2_after_grants
2027Q2 / downside-34.08
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q2_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2027q2_cash_after_capital
2027Q2 / downside-67.08
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_after_grants, downside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
downside_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / downside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2027q3_kgs
2027Q3 / downside398.74
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_kgs, downside_2027q3_weight).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2027q3_unmanned
2027Q3 / downside87.82
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_unmanned, downside_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside486.56
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_kgs, downside_2027q3_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
downside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / downside10.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside41.87
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_kgs, downside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
downside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / downside6.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside5.71
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_unmanned, downside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside47.58
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda, downside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2027q3_kgs_gross
2027Q3 / downside87.72
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_kgs, downside_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2027q3_unmanned_gross
2027Q3 / downside20.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_unmanned, downside_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside107.92
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_kgs_gross, downside_2027q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2027q3_exclusions
2027Q3 / downside49.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_depreciation, downside_2027q3_amortization, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-1.42
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / downside55.58
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_depreciation, downside_2027q3_amortization, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside41.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_working_capital, downside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside14.58
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-30.42
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2027q3_asset_proceeds
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals
2027Q3 / downside-30.42
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2027q3_grant
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2027q3_jv
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_jv, downside_2027q3_withholding, downside_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2027q3_after_grants
2027Q3 / downside-30.42
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2027q3_cash_after_capital
2027Q3 / downside-63.42
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_after_grants, downside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
downside_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / downside28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
downside_2027q4_kgs
2027Q4 / downside429.41
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_kgs, downside_2027q4_weight).
Unmanned revenue
downside_2027q4_unmanned
2027Q4 / downside94.58
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_unmanned, downside_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside523.99
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_kgs, downside_2027q4_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
downside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / downside10.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside45.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_kgs, downside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
downside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / downside6.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside6.15
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_unmanned, downside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside51.24
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda, downside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
downside_2027q4_kgs_gross
2027Q4 / downside94.47
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_kgs, downside_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
downside_2027q4_unmanned_gross
2027Q4 / downside21.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_unmanned, downside_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside116.22
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_kgs_gross, downside_2027q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
downside_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
downside_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
downside_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
downside_2027q4_exclusions
2027Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_depreciation, downside_2027q4_amortization, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside1.24
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / downside59.24
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_depreciation, downside_2027q4_amortization, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
downside_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside31.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_working_capital, downside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside28.24
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-16.76
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
downside_2027q4_asset_proceeds
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
downside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals
2027Q4 / downside-16.76
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
downside_2027q4_grant
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
downside_2027q4_jv
2027Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
downside_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
downside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
downside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_jv, downside_2027q4_withholding, downside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
downside_2027q4_after_grants
2027Q4 / downside-16.76
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
downside_2027q4_cash_after_capital
2027Q4 / downside-49.76
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_after_grants, downside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside1,691.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_kgs
FY2026 / downside1,369.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_kgs, downside_2026q3_kgs, downside_2026q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_unmanned
FY2026 / downside321.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, downside_2026q3_unmanned, downside_2026q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside380.76
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / downside148.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-8.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside-26.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside138.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-164.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
downside_fy2026_asset_proceeds
FY2026 / downside13.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_asset_proceeds, downside_2026q3_asset_proceeds, downside_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_disposals
FY2026 / downside-151.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_disposals, downside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, downside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_capital
FY2026 / downside-620.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capital, downside_2026q3_cash_after_capital, downside_2026q4_cash_after_capital).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside1,871.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_kgs
FY2027 / downside1,533.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_kgs, downside_2027q2_kgs, downside_2027q3_kgs, downside_2027q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_unmanned
FY2027 / downside337.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_unmanned, downside_2027q2_unmanned, downside_2027q3_unmanned, downside_2027q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside415.09
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / downside182.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-11.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside50.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-129.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
downside_fy2027_asset_proceeds
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_asset_proceeds, downside_2027q2_asset_proceeds, downside_2027q3_asset_proceeds, downside_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_disposals
FY2027 / downside-129.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, downside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_capital
FY2027 / downside-261.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capital, downside_2027q2_cash_after_capital, downside_2027q3_cash_after_capital, downside_2027q4_cash_after_capital).
revenue / guidance midpoint
base_revenue_factor
FY2026 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 revenue
base_fy26_revenue_target
FY2026 / base1,780.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, base_revenue_factor).
H2 revenue
base_h2_revenue
H2 2026 / base950.20
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_revenue_target, h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda / guidance midpoint
base_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2026 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 adjusted_ebitda
base_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2026 / base174.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_ebitda_guide, base_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
base_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 2026 / base97.60
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 Unmanned sales
base_unmanned_h2
H2 2026 / base170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation within consolidated guidance.
FY2026 Unmanned revenue
base_fy26_unmanned
FY2026 / base331.70
USD_millions
derived: Actual plus forecast. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, base_unmanned_h2).
FY2026 KGS revenue
base_fy26_kgs
FY2026 / base1,448.30
USD_millions
derived: Nomad and Orbit included in the KGS perimeter. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_revenue_target, base_fy26_unmanned).
FY2027 kgs growth multiplier
base_kgs_growth
FY2027 / base123.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 kgs revenue
base_fy27_kgs
FY2027 / base1,781.41
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_kgs, base_kgs_growth).
FY2027 unmanned growth multiplier
base_unmanned_growth
FY2027 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 unmanned revenue
base_fy27_unmanned
FY2027 / base398.04
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_unmanned, base_unmanned_growth).
Revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base470.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 company midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_revenue_factor).
Unmanned revenue
base_2026q3_unmanned
2026Q3 / base83.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2026q3_kgs
2026Q3 / base387.00
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / base42.50
USD_millions
derived: Q3 earnings reference. Formula: multiply(q3_ebitda_guide, base_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q3 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2026q3_kgs_gross
2026Q3 / base92.88
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_kgs, base_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2026q3_unmanned_gross
2026Q3 / base20.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_unmanned, base_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base113.63
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_kgs_gross, base_2026q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2026q3_depreciation
2026Q3 / base11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2026q3_amortization
2026Q3 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base16.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2026q3_cash_exclusions
2026Q3 / base0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2026q3_exclusions
2026Q3 / base41.30
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_depreciation, base_2026q3_amortization, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base1.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / base51.70
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_depreciation, base_2026q3_amortization, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base27.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_working_capital, base_2026q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base24.70
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_uses, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-25.30
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2026q3_asset_proceeds
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2026q3_cash_after_disposals
2026Q3 / base-25.30
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2026q3_grant
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2026q3_jv
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2026q3_withholding
2026Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / base28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_jv, base_2026q3_withholding, base_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2026q3_after_grants
2026Q3 / base-25.30
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, base_2026q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2026q3_cash_after_capital
2026Q3 / base-53.80
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_after_grants, base_2026q3_capital_uses).
Revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base480.20
USD_millions
derived: Annual less actual H1 and forecast Q3. Formula: subtract(base_h2_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue).
Unmanned revenue
base_2026q4_unmanned
2026Q4 / base87.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2026q4_kgs
2026Q4 / base393.20
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / base55.10
USD_millions
derived: Annual adjusted result less H1 and Q3. Formula: subtract(base_h2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2026q4_kgs_gross
2026Q4 / base94.37
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_kgs, base_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2026q4_unmanned_gross
2026Q4 / base21.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_unmanned, base_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base116.12
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_kgs_gross, base_2026q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2026q4_depreciation
2026Q4 / base14.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2026q4_amortization
2026Q4 / base11.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base14.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / base0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2026q4_exclusions
2026Q4 / base41.40
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_depreciation, base_2026q4_amortization, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base13.70
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / base64.30
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_depreciation, base_2026q4_amortization, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / base6.60
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base10.60
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_working_capital, base_2026q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base53.70
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_uses, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base42.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base10.80
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2026q4_asset_proceeds
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2026q4_cash_after_disposals
2026Q4 / base10.80
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2026q4_grant
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2026q4_jv
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2026q4_withholding
2026Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / base28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_jv, base_2026q4_withholding, base_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2026q4_after_grants
2026Q4 / base10.80
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_after_disposals, base_2026q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2026q4_cash_after_capital
2026Q4 / base-17.70
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_after_grants, base_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
base_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / base22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2027q1_kgs
2027Q1 / base391.91
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_kgs, base_2027q1_weight).
Unmanned revenue
base_2027q1_unmanned
2027Q1 / base87.57
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_unmanned, base_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base479.48
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_kgs, base_2027q1_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
base_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_kgs_ebitda
2027Q1 / base47.03
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_kgs, base_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
base_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / base8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q1 / base7.44
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_unmanned, base_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / base54.47
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_kgs_ebitda, base_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2027q1_kgs_gross
2027Q1 / base94.06
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_kgs, base_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2027q1_unmanned_gross
2027Q1 / base21.89
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_unmanned, base_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base115.95
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_kgs_gross, base_2027q1_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2027q1_depreciation
2027Q1 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2027q1_amortization
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2027q1_exclusions
2027Q1 / base47.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_depreciation, base_2027q1_amortization, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base7.47
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q1_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / base62.47
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_depreciation, base_2027q1_amortization, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base36.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_working_capital, base_2027q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base26.47
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_uses, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base37.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-11.03
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2027q1_asset_proceeds
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2027q1_cash_after_disposals
2027Q1 / base-11.03
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2027q1_grant
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2027q1_jv
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2027q1_withholding
2027Q1 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / base33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_jv, base_2027q1_withholding, base_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2027q1_after_grants
2027Q1 / base-11.03
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q1_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2027q1_cash_after_capital
2027Q1 / base-44.03
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_after_grants, base_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
base_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2027q2_kgs
2027Q2 / base427.54
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_kgs, base_2027q2_weight).
Unmanned revenue
base_2027q2_unmanned
2027Q2 / base95.53
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_unmanned, base_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base523.07
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_kgs, base_2027q2_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
base_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_kgs_ebitda
2027Q2 / base51.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_kgs, base_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
base_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / base8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q2 / base8.12
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_unmanned, base_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / base59.42
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_kgs_ebitda, base_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2027q2_kgs_gross
2027Q2 / base102.61
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_kgs, base_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2027q2_unmanned_gross
2027Q2 / base23.88
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_unmanned, base_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base126.49
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_kgs_gross, base_2027q2_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2027q2_exclusions
2027Q2 / base48.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_depreciation, base_2027q2_amortization, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base11.42
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / base67.42
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_depreciation, base_2027q2_amortization, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base26.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_working_capital, base_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base41.42
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_uses, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base37.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base3.92
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2027q2_asset_proceeds
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2027q2_cash_after_disposals
2027Q2 / base3.92
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2027q2_grant
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2027q2_jv
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / base33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_jv, base_2027q2_withholding, base_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2027q2_after_grants
2027Q2 / base3.92
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q2_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2027q2_cash_after_capital
2027Q2 / base-29.08
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_after_grants, base_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
base_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / base26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2027q3_kgs
2027Q3 / base463.17
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_kgs, base_2027q3_weight).
Unmanned revenue
base_2027q3_unmanned
2027Q3 / base103.49
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_unmanned, base_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base566.66
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_kgs, base_2027q3_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
base_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_kgs_ebitda
2027Q3 / base55.58
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_kgs, base_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
base_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / base8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q3 / base8.80
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_unmanned, base_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / base64.38
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_kgs_ebitda, base_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2027q3_kgs_gross
2027Q3 / base111.16
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_kgs, base_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2027q3_unmanned_gross
2027Q3 / base25.87
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_unmanned, base_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base137.03
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_kgs_gross, base_2027q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2027q3_exclusions
2027Q3 / base49.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_depreciation, base_2027q3_amortization, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base15.38
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / base72.38
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_depreciation, base_2027q3_amortization, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base26.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_working_capital, base_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base46.38
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_uses, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base37.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base8.88
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2027q3_asset_proceeds
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2027q3_cash_after_disposals
2027Q3 / base8.88
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2027q3_grant
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2027q3_jv
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / base33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_jv, base_2027q3_withholding, base_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2027q3_after_grants
2027Q3 / base8.88
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2027q3_cash_after_capital
2027Q3 / base-24.12
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_after_grants, base_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
base_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
base_2027q4_kgs
2027Q4 / base498.79
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_kgs, base_2027q4_weight).
Unmanned revenue
base_2027q4_unmanned
2027Q4 / base111.45
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_unmanned, base_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base610.25
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_kgs, base_2027q4_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
base_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_kgs_ebitda
2027Q4 / base59.86
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_kgs, base_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
base_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / base8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q4 / base9.47
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_unmanned, base_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / base69.33
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_kgs_ebitda, base_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
base_2027q4_kgs_gross
2027Q4 / base119.71
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_kgs, base_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
base_2027q4_unmanned_gross
2027Q4 / base27.86
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_unmanned, base_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base147.57
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_kgs_gross, base_2027q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
base_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
base_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
base_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
base_2027q4_exclusions
2027Q4 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_depreciation, base_2027q4_amortization, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base19.33
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / base77.33
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_depreciation, base_2027q4_amortization, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
base_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base16.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_working_capital, base_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base61.33
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_uses, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base37.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base23.83
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
base_2027q4_asset_proceeds
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
base_2027q4_cash_after_disposals
2027Q4 / base23.83
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
base_2027q4_grant
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
base_2027q4_jv
2027Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
base_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
base_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
base_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / base33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_jv, base_2027q4_withholding, base_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
base_2027q4_after_grants
2027Q4 / base23.83
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
base_2027q4_cash_after_capital
2027Q4 / base-9.17
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_after_grants, base_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base1,780.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_kgs
FY2026 / base1,448.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_kgs, base_2026q3_kgs, base_2026q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_unmanned
FY2026 / base331.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, base_2026q3_unmanned, base_2026q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base419.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / base174.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base18.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base130.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base-90.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
base_fy2026_asset_proceeds
FY2026 / base13.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_asset_proceeds, base_2026q3_asset_proceeds, base_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_disposals
FY2026 / base-76.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_disposals, base_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, base_2026q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_capital
FY2026 / base-546.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capital, base_2026q3_cash_after_capital, base_2026q4_cash_after_capital).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base2,179.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_kgs
FY2027 / base1,781.41
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_kgs, base_2027q2_kgs, base_2027q3_kgs, base_2027q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_unmanned
FY2027 / base398.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_unmanned, base_2027q2_unmanned, base_2027q3_unmanned, base_2027q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base527.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / base247.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base53.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base175.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base150.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base25.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
base_fy2027_asset_proceeds
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_asset_proceeds, base_2027q2_asset_proceeds, base_2027q3_asset_proceeds, base_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_disposals
FY2027 / base25.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, base_2027q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_capital
FY2027 / base-106.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capital, base_2027q2_cash_after_capital, base_2027q3_cash_after_capital, base_2027q4_cash_after_capital).
revenue / guidance midpoint
upside_revenue_factor
FY2026 / upside102.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 revenue
upside_fy26_revenue_target
FY2026 / upside1,824.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, upside_revenue_factor).
H2 revenue
upside_h2_revenue
H2 2026 / upside994.70
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_revenue_target, h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda / guidance midpoint
upside_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2026 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
FY2026 adjusted_ebitda
upside_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2026 / upside188.46
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario. Formula: multiply(fy26_ebitda_guide, upside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
upside_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 2026 / upside111.56
USD_millions
derived: Preserves H1 actual. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 Unmanned sales
upside_unmanned_h2
H2 2026 / upside179.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation within consolidated guidance.
FY2026 Unmanned revenue
upside_fy26_unmanned
FY2026 / upside340.70
USD_millions
derived: Actual plus forecast. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, upside_unmanned_h2).
FY2026 KGS revenue
upside_fy26_kgs
FY2026 / upside1,483.80
USD_millions
derived: Nomad and Orbit included in the KGS perimeter. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_revenue_target, upside_fy26_unmanned).
FY2027 kgs growth multiplier
upside_kgs_growth
FY2027 / upside132.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 kgs revenue
upside_fy27_kgs
FY2027 / upside1,958.62
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_kgs, upside_kgs_growth).
FY2027 unmanned growth multiplier
upside_unmanned_growth
FY2027 / upside135.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk growth; includes acquired perimeter, no guaranteed production award assumed.
FY2027 unmanned revenue
upside_fy27_unmanned
FY2027 / upside459.94
USD_millions
derived: Independent segment growth. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_unmanned, upside_unmanned_growth).
Revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside481.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 company midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_revenue_factor).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2026q3_unmanned
2026Q3 / upside86.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2026q3_kgs
2026Q3 / upside395.75
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside45.90
USD_millions
derived: Q3 earnings reference. Formula: multiply(q3_ebitda_guide, upside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q3 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2026q3_kgs_gross
2026Q3 / upside100.92
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_kgs, upside_2026q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q3 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2026q3_unmanned_gross
2026Q3 / upside23.22
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_unmanned, upside_2026q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside124.14
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_kgs_gross, upside_2026q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2026q3_depreciation
2026Q3 / upside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2026q3_amortization
2026Q3 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside16.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2026q3_cash_exclusions
2026Q3 / upside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2026q3_exclusions
2026Q3 / upside41.30
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_depreciation, upside_2026q3_amortization, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside4.60
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / upside55.10
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_depreciation, upside_2026q3_amortization, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside19.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_working_capital, upside_2026q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside36.10
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside-13.90
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2026q3_asset_proceeds
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals
2026Q3 / upside-13.90
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2026q3_grant
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2026q3_jv
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2026q3_withholding
2026Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2026q3_lease_principal
2026Q3 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / upside28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_jv, upside_2026q3_withholding, upside_2026q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2026q3_after_grants
2026Q3 / upside-13.90
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, upside_2026q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2026q3_cash_after_capital
2026Q3 / upside-42.40
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_after_grants, upside_2026q3_capital_uses).
Revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside512.95
USD_millions
derived: Annual less actual H1 and forecast Q3. Formula: subtract(upside_h2_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2026q4_unmanned
2026Q4 / upside93.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2026q4_kgs
2026Q4 / upside419.95
USD_millions
derived: KGS includes closed acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_unmanned).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside65.66
USD_millions
derived: Annual adjusted result less H1 and Q3. Formula: subtract(upside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2026q4_kgs_gross
2026Q4 / upside107.09
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_kgs, upside_2026q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2026q4_unmanned_gross
2026Q4 / upside25.11
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_unmanned, upside_2026q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside132.20
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_kgs_gross, upside_2026q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2026q4_depreciation
2026Q4 / upside14.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2026q4_amortization
2026Q4 / upside11.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside14.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / upside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2026q4_exclusions
2026Q4 / upside41.40
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_depreciation, upside_2026q4_amortization, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside24.26
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / upside74.86
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_depreciation, upside_2026q4_amortization, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_working_capital, upside_2026q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside70.86
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside42.90
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside27.96
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2026q4_asset_proceeds
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals
2026Q4 / upside27.96
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2026q4_grant
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2026q4_jv
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2026q4_withholding
2026Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2026q4_lease_principal
2026Q4 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / upside28.50
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_jv, upside_2026q4_withholding, upside_2026q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2026q4_after_grants
2026Q4 / upside27.96
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals, upside_2026q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2026q4_cash_after_capital
2026Q4 / upside-0.54
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_after_grants, upside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
upside_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / upside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2027q1_kgs
2027Q1 / upside430.90
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_kgs, upside_2027q1_weight).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2027q1_unmanned
2027Q1 / upside101.19
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_unmanned, upside_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside532.08
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_kgs, upside_2027q1_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
upside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / upside13.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside58.17
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_kgs, upside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
upside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q1 / upside11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside11.13
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_unmanned, upside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside69.30
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_kgs_ebitda, upside_2027q1_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2027q1_kgs_gross
2027Q1 / upside109.88
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_kgs, upside_2027q1_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2027q1_unmanned_gross
2027Q1 / upside27.32
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_unmanned, upside_2027q1_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside137.20
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_kgs_gross, upside_2027q1_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2027q1_depreciation
2027Q1 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2027q1_amortization
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2027q1_exclusions
2027Q1 / upside47.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_depreciation, upside_2027q1_amortization, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside22.30
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q1_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / upside77.30
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_depreciation, upside_2027q1_amortization, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside26.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_working_capital, upside_2027q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside51.30
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside11.30
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2027q1_asset_proceeds
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals
2027Q1 / upside11.30
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2027q1_grant
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2027q1_jv
2027Q1 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2027q1_withholding
2027Q1 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2027q1_lease_principal
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / upside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_jv, upside_2027q1_withholding, upside_2027q1_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2027q1_after_grants
2027Q1 / upside11.30
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q1_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2027q1_cash_after_capital
2027Q1 / upside-21.70
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_after_grants, upside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
upside_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / upside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2027q2_kgs
2027Q2 / upside470.07
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_kgs, upside_2027q2_weight).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2027q2_unmanned
2027Q2 / upside110.39
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_unmanned, upside_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside580.45
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_kgs, upside_2027q2_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
upside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / upside13.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside63.46
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_kgs, upside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
upside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q2 / upside11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside12.14
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_unmanned, upside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside75.60
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_kgs_ebitda, upside_2027q2_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2027q2_kgs_gross
2027Q2 / upside119.87
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_kgs, upside_2027q2_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2027q2_unmanned_gross
2027Q2 / upside29.80
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_unmanned, upside_2027q2_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside149.67
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_kgs_gross, upside_2027q2_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2027q2_exclusions
2027Q2 / upside48.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_depreciation, upside_2027q2_amortization, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside27.60
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / upside83.60
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_depreciation, upside_2027q2_amortization, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside16.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_working_capital, upside_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside67.60
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside27.60
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2027q2_asset_proceeds
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals
2027Q2 / upside27.60
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2027q2_grant
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2027q2_jv
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2027q2_lease_principal
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / upside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_jv, upside_2027q2_withholding, upside_2027q2_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2027q2_after_grants
2027Q2 / upside27.60
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q2_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2027q2_cash_after_capital
2027Q2 / upside-5.40
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_after_grants, upside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
upside_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / upside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2027q3_kgs
2027Q3 / upside509.24
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_kgs, upside_2027q3_weight).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2027q3_unmanned
2027Q3 / upside119.59
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_unmanned, upside_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside628.83
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_kgs, upside_2027q3_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
upside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / upside13.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside68.75
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_kgs, upside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
upside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q3 / upside11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside13.15
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_unmanned, upside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside81.90
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_kgs_ebitda, upside_2027q3_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2027q3_kgs_gross
2027Q3 / upside129.86
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_kgs, upside_2027q3_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2027q3_unmanned_gross
2027Q3 / upside32.29
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_unmanned, upside_2027q3_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside162.14
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_kgs_gross, upside_2027q3_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2027q3_exclusions
2027Q3 / upside49.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_depreciation, upside_2027q3_amortization, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside32.90
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / upside89.90
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_depreciation, upside_2027q3_amortization, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside16.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_working_capital, upside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside73.90
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside33.90
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2027q3_asset_proceeds
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals
2027Q3 / upside33.90
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2027q3_grant
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2027q3_jv
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2027q3_lease_principal
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / upside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_jv, upside_2027q3_withholding, upside_2027q3_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2027q3_after_grants
2027Q3 / upside33.90
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q3_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2027q3_cash_after_capital
2027Q3 / upside0.90
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_after_grants, upside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual segment revenue quarter share
upside_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / upside28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Government Solutions revenue
upside_2027q4_kgs
2027Q4 / upside548.41
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_kgs, upside_2027q4_weight).
Unmanned revenue
upside_2027q4_unmanned
2027Q4 / upside128.78
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_unmanned, upside_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside677.20
USD_millions
derived: Distinct segments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_kgs, upside_2027q4_unmanned).
kgs adjusted margin
upside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / upside13.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside74.04
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_kgs, upside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda_margin).
unmanned adjusted margin
upside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin
2027Q4 / upside11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside14.17
USD_millions
derived: Includes allocated adjusted corporate expense. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_unmanned, upside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside88.20
USD_millions
derived: No pipeline valuation or financing income included. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_kgs_ebitda, upside_2027q4_unmanned_ebitda).
kgs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
kgs gross profit
upside_2027q4_kgs_gross
2027Q4 / upside139.85
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_kgs, upside_2027q4_kgs_gross_margin).
unmanned GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
unmanned gross profit
upside_2027q4_unmanned_gross
2027Q4 / upside34.77
USD_millions
derived: Desk mix and cost-execution sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_unmanned, upside_2027q4_unmanned_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside174.62
USD_millions
derived: Actual segment gross margins are not separately guided. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_kgs_gross, upside_2027q4_unmanned_gross).
Depreciation
upside_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Intangible and contract/development amortization
upside_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes capitalized development amortization once; no second deduction of the same amortization.
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration expense
upside_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA operating exclusions
upside_2027q4_exclusions
2027Q4 / upside50.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC and DA are noncash; integration remains cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_depreciation, upside_2027q4_amortization, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside38.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeated fair-value reversal or speculative gain. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_exclusions).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / upside96.20
USD_millions
derived: Investment income from the existing cash balance; no equity offering proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_depreciation, upside_2027q4_amortization, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_cash_interest).
Unbilled/inventory and other net operating cash use
upside_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes work-in-process previously described as prospective capex; not deducted in PP&E a second time.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital and tax cash use
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
derived: Net cash timing after customer and supplier financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_working_capital, upside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside90.20
USD_millions
derived: No asset sales, grants or financing proceeds. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Gross capital expenditures
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes normal maintenance and factory/aircraft capital, but excludes the separately modeled inventory cash use.
CFO less gross capex
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside50.20
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic cash measure, not forced to the independently published company FCF range. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Cash from asset disposals
upside_2027q4_asset_proceeds
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No recurring sale proceeds assumed after H1; changing this affects investing cash only.
Cash after asset disposals
upside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals
2027Q4 / upside50.20
USD_millions
derived: Preserves the distinction highlighted by Q2 company-owned aircraft sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Construction grant cash
upside_2027q4_grant
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV capital contributions
upside_2027q4_jv
2027Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Award tax withholding
upside_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Finance lease principal
upside_2027q4_lease_principal
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
JV, award and lease cash uses
upside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / upside33.00
USD_millions
derived: No further M&A or equity offering assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_jv, upside_2027q4_withholding, upside_2027q4_lease_principal).
Cash after capital grants
upside_2027q4_after_grants
2027Q4 / upside50.20
USD_millions
derived: Grant cash does not change operating income. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q4_grant).
Cash after capital allocations
upside_2027q4_cash_after_capital
2027Q4 / upside17.20
USD_millions
derived: Before financing proceeds and other acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_after_grants, upside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside1,824.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_kgs
FY2026 / upside1,483.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_kgs, upside_2026q3_kgs, upside_2026q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_unmanned
FY2026 / upside340.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_unmanned, upside_2026q3_unmanned, upside_2026q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside446.03
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / upside188.46
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside31.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside68.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside130.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside-61.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
upside_fy2026_asset_proceeds
FY2026 / upside13.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_asset_proceeds, upside_2026q3_asset_proceeds, upside_2026q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_disposals
FY2026 / upside-47.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_disposals, upside_2026q3_cash_after_disposals, upside_2026q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_capital
FY2026 / upside-517.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capital, upside_2026q3_cash_after_capital, upside_2026q4_cash_after_capital).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside2,418.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Government Solutions revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_kgs
FY2027 / upside1,958.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_kgs, upside_2027q2_kgs, upside_2027q3_kgs, upside_2027q4_kgs).
Unmanned Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_unmanned
FY2027 / upside459.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_unmanned, upside_2027q2_unmanned, upside_2027q3_unmanned, upside_2027q4_unmanned).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside623.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / upside315.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside121.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside283.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross capital expenditures ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside160.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less gross capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside123.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Asset disposal proceeds ($M)
upside_fy2027_asset_proceeds
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_asset_proceeds, upside_2027q2_asset_proceeds, upside_2027q3_asset_proceeds, upside_2027q4_asset_proceeds).
Cash after capex and asset disposals ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_disposals
FY2027 / upside123.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q2_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q3_cash_after_disposals, upside_2027q4_cash_after_disposals).
Cash after acquisitions/JV and equity settlements ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_capital
FY2027 / upside-8.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capital, upside_2027q2_cash_after_capital, upside_2027q3_cash_after_capital, upside_2027q4_cash_after_capital).

Model boundaries

Defense growth before the capacity build pays for itself

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can production growth outrun the cash committed to factories, inventory and unbilled work?

H1 sales of $829.8M comprised $668.1M Government Solutions and $161.7M Unmanned Systems. Adjusted EBITDA was $76.9M versus $3.1M operating income. CFO was negative $38.4M, gross capex $37.1M and CFO less capex negative $75.5M. Asset disposals supplied $13.5M; Q2 company FCF specifically added $9.3M from company-owned aircraft. H1 acquisitions consumed $346.8M, JV funding $6.9M and award withholding $59.1M. Net equity proceeds of $1,348.4M are financing, not cash generated by customers. June cash was $1,437.6M. Backlog included approximately $1,572M funded and $512.7M unfunded; the $15B bid pipeline is separate. Guidance calls for $1.750B-$1.810B sales, $173M-$176M adjusted EBITDA, $30M-$50M CFO and $125M-$135M capex, with a separately published $85M-$105M FCF use. The model keeps these definitions and independent ranges visible.

The competing explanation

Investment can be economically justified yet dilute owners or depress cash for years before contract conversion. Customer-funded work, inventory and capital equipment classifications can shift without changing the total cash burden. A strong backlog does not eliminate fixed-price cost, staffing or milestone risk.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First segment/cash scenarios distinguishing organic growth, funded demand, disposal cash and the equity-funded capacity build.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.5+0.5+3.560%
5 sessions-5.7+0.5+7.253%
10 sessions-6.4+0.4+9.751%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-02 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  2. [2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  6. [6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  10. [10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  14. [14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  19. [19] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  22. [22] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-24-000061, 10-Q filed 2024-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-25-000028, 10-Q filed 2025-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  26. [26] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-25-000048, 10-Q filed 2025-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  27. [27] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  30. [30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069258-24-000061, 10-Q filed 2024-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  31. [31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  32. [32] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069258-25-000028, 10-Q filed 2025-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  33. [33] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069258-25-000048, 10-Q filed 2025-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  34. [34] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001069258-25-000058, 10-Q filed 2025-11-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  36. [36] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001069258-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  37. [37] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001069258-26-000053, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001069258-26-000077, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:34+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069258.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T20:45:34.738763+00:00 · authored 9fe0ae50c375 · generated d9d14d6b9483 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard