$FSLR
Business
First Solar manufactures thin-film photovoltaic modules for large solar projects. It commits manufacturing capacity through multiyear customer contracts, then recognizes sales as control of modules transfers. Economics depend on delivered volume, contracted pricing and adjustments, factory utilization, logistics and technology performance. U.S. manufacturing credits are recorded in cost of sales but collected or transferred on a different timetable. New factories and finishing capacity require cash before their output produces customer receipts.
Three drivers
- Delivered watts, realized pricing and factory utilization determine module economics.
- Eligible U.S. production generates credits whose cash timing differs from accounting profit.
- Customer payments, inventory and factory investment determine cash generation.
Thesis
Our view
The central question is the quality and cash realization of the contracted earnings base. Long-dated orders offer visibility, but cancellation disputes, specification changes and project delays keep backlog from being equivalent to cash. We separate margin earned before manufacturing credits from credit income, then ask when both turn into receipts. Strong reported profitability can coexist with cash absorption while inventories and government receivables expand.
What changes it
A durable improvement requires delivered volume, margin before credits and collections to move together. Contract concessions, slower credit monetization, plant underutilization or higher capital spending would require a weaker cash case even if the reported backlog remains large.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 887.71 | 1,514.0†2 | 844.63 | 1,097.24 | 1,594.91 | 1,682.8†2 | 1,044.23 | 1,056.24 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 445.35 | 567.7†6 | 344.47 | 499.98 | 610.75 | 665.3†6 | 486.17 | 605.08 |
| Operating income ($M) | 322.09 | 456.8†10 | 221.211 | 361.612 | 466.19 | 547.9†10 | 345.311 | 450.412 |
| Net income ($M) | 313.013 | 393.1†14 | 209.515 | 341.916 | 455.913 | 520.9†14 | 346.615 | 422.616 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | 2.9117 | — | 1.9518 | 3.1819 | 4.2417 | — | 3.2218 | 3.9219 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 107.620 | — | 107.421 | 107.522 | 107.520 | — | 107.621 | 107.722 |
| Cash ($M) | 1,005.123 | 1,621.424 | 837.625 | 1,124.726 | 1,992.227 | 2,803.528 | 2,363.029 | 1,688.328 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 373.330 | 373.431 | 327.932 | 328.033 | 282.634 | 282.635 | 237.236 | 0.035 |
| Cash from operations ($M) | -53.7†37 | 811.0†38 | -608.039 | 149.6†40 | 1,273.6†37 | 1,241.9†38 | -214.939 | -144.9†40 |
| Capex ($M) | 433.9†41 | 313.5†42 | 206.043 | 288.1†44 | 204.0†41 | 171.7†42 | 118.543 | 161.3†44 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | -487.7†45 | 497.5†46 | -813.9†47 | -138.6†48 | 1,069.6†45 | 1,070.2†46 | -333.4†47 | -306.2†48 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 1,327.3 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 1,622.3 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 1,111.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 1,277.7 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Module deliveries, manufacturing credits and cash collection
Separate module gross profit before manufacturing credits from 45X credits and the recognized tariff-refund benefit. FY2026 revenue starts at the company-guidance midpoint and changes with a delivery/price factor; credits change with a separate eligible-production factor. Cash flow removes accrued credits from operating income and substitutes assumed credit collections, then adds noncash costs and deducts taxes and working-capital uses. The reported first half is retained in FY2026; FY2027 is a desk extension with no new tariff refund assumed. Remove the recognized FY2026 tariff-refund accrual from cash earnings and substitute explicit net collections; FY2027 may collect an old refund without recording a new gross-profit benefit.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | 2026Q2 | 1,056.19 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 GAAP gross profit | 2026Q2 | 605.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 net tariff-refund gross-profit benefit | 2026Q2 | 88.60 | reported. Expected refunds less estimated customer amounts payable; a recognized benefit, not proof of cash receipt. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 2026 Operating cash flow | 2026H1 | -359.77 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Disclosed H1 credit cash receipts | 2026H1 | 212.80 | derived. Two disclosed credit cash streams; not 2026 credit accrual. |
| FY2026 sales guidance midpoint | FY2026 | 5,050.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| FY2026 45X-credit assumption midpoint | FY2026 | 2,145.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Analytical margin before credits/refund | FY2026 | 5.3% | derived. Midpoint decomposition, not a company-disclosed segment margin. |
| Current government-grant receivables | 2026Q2 | 284.55 | reported. Includes government grants; not all receivables are identical credit vintages. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Noncurrent government-grant receivables | 2026Q2 | 978.79 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Current debt | 2026Q2 | 37.63 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund | FY2026 | 40.00 | assumption. Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund | FY2027 | 48.60 | assumption. Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 288.93 | -35.14 | 324.07 | 1,213.68 | 480.07 | 327.27 |
| 2026Q4 | 866.79 | 470.70 | 396.08 | 1,483.39 | 586.75 | 399.99 |
| 2027Q1 | 90.23 | -99.77 | 190.00 | 959.50 | 413.87 | 279.87 |
| 2027Q2 | 135.35 | -83.15 | 218.50 | 1,103.42 | 475.95 | 321.85 |
| FY2026 | 795.95 | -204.05 | 1,000.00 | 4,797.50 | 2,157.95 | 1,522.95 |
| FY2027 | 902.33 | -47.67 | 950.00 | 4,797.50 | 2,069.35 | 1,399.35 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 490.42 | 211.35 | 279.07 | 1,327.31 | 633.99 | 486.81 |
| 2026Q4 | 1,471.25 | 1,130.17 | 341.08 | 1,622.26 | 774.88 | 595.00 |
| 2027Q1 | 208.34 | 28.34 | 180.00 | 1,111.00 | 538.56 | 404.56 |
| 2027Q2 | 312.51 | 105.51 | 207.00 | 1,277.65 | 619.34 | 465.24 |
| FY2026 | 1,601.90 | 701.90 | 900.00 | 5,050.00 | 2,500.00 | 1,877.50 |
| FY2027 | 2,083.43 | 1,183.43 | 900.00 | 5,555.00 | 2,692.80 | 2,022.80 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | Operating cash flow less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 611.14 | 377.07 | 234.07 | 1,440.93 | 719.75 | 571.45 |
| 2026Q4 | 1,833.41 | 1,547.32 | 286.08 | 1,761.14 | 879.69 | 698.44 |
| 2027Q1 | 259.83 | 79.83 | 180.00 | 1,240.78 | 634.65 | 492.65 |
| 2027Q2 | 389.74 | 182.74 | 207.00 | 1,426.90 | 729.85 | 566.55 |
| FY2026 | 2,084.78 | 1,284.78 | 800.00 | 5,302.50 | 2,690.58 | 2,065.58 |
| FY2027 | 2,598.27 | 1,698.27 | 900.00 | 6,203.92 | 3,173.27 | 2,463.27 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 Revenue h1_revenue | 2026H1 / shared | 2,100.43 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 2026 GAAP gross profit h1_gross_profit | 2026H1 / shared | 1,091.13 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 2026 GAAP operating income h1_operating_income | 2026H1 / shared | 795.69 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 2026 Operating cash flow h1_cfo | 2026H1 / shared | -359.77 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 2026 Cash capex h1_capex | 2026H1 / shared | 279.85 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 revenue q2_revenue | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,056.19 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 GAAP gross profit q2_gross_profit | 2026Q2 / shared | 605.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 net tariff-refund gross-profit benefit refund_benefit | 2026Q2 / shared | 88.60 USD_millions | reported: Expected refunds less estimated customer amounts payable; a recognized benefit, not proof of cash receipt. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 proceeds from previously sold credits h1_tax_credit_cash_a | 2026H1 / shared | 95.20 USD_millions | reported: Remaining proceeds for 2025 credit-sale agreements. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 Treasury credit receipt h1_tax_credit_cash_b | 2026H1 / shared | 117.60 USD_millions | reported: Cash received for credits generated during 2024. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Disclosed H1 credit cash receipts h1_credit_cash | 2026H1 / shared | 212.80 USD_millions | derived: Two disclosed credit cash streams; not 2026 credit accrual. Formula: sum(h1_tax_credit_cash_a, h1_tax_credit_cash_b). |
| Current debt current_debt | 2026Q2 / shared | 37.63 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Current government-grant receivables credit_receivables_current | 2026Q2 / shared | 284.55 USD_millions | reported: Includes government grants; not all receivables are identical credit vintages. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Noncurrent government-grant receivables credit_receivables_noncurrent | 2026Q2 / shared | 978.79 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 sales guidance low fy26_revenue_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 4,900.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 sales guidance high fy26_revenue_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 5,200.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| FY2026 sales guidance endpoint sum fy26_revenue_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 10,100.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_revenue_guide_low, fy26_revenue_guide_high). |
| FY2026 sales guidance midpoint fy26_revenue_guide | FY2026 / shared | 5,050.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_revenue_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2026 gross-profit guidance low fy26_gross_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 2,400.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 gross-profit guidance high fy26_gross_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 2,600.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 gross-profit guidance endpoint sum fy26_gross_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 5,000.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_gross_guide_low, fy26_gross_guide_high). |
| FY2026 gross-profit guidance midpoint fy26_gross_guide | FY2026 / shared | 2,500.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_gross_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2026 45X-credit assumption low fy26_credit_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 2,100.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 45X-credit assumption high fy26_credit_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 2,190.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 45X-credit assumption endpoint sum fy26_credit_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 4,290.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_credit_guide_low, fy26_credit_guide_high). |
| FY2026 45X-credit assumption midpoint fy26_credit_guide | FY2026 / shared | 2,145.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_credit_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2026 operating-expense guidance low fy26_opex_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 610.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 operating-expense guidance high fy26_opex_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 635.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 operating-expense guidance endpoint sum fy26_opex_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 1,245.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_opex_guide_low, fy26_opex_guide_high). |
| FY2026 operating-expense guidance midpoint fy26_opex_guide | FY2026 / shared | 622.50 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_opex_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2026 capex guidance low fy26_capex_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 800.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 capex guidance high fy26_capex_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 1,000.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 capex guidance endpoint sum fy26_capex_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 1,800.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_capex_guide_low, fy26_capex_guide_high). |
| FY2026 capex guidance midpoint fy26_capex_guide | FY2026 / shared | 900.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_capex_guide_sum, two). |
| Guidance midpoint gross profit before credits guide_gross_before_credits | FY2026 / shared | 355.00 USD_millions | derived: Analytical bridge removes the midpoint of disclosed 45X assumptions. Formula: subtract(fy26_gross_guide, fy26_credit_guide). |
| Guidance midpoint gross profit before credits/refund guide_gross_before_refund | FY2026 / shared | 266.40 USD_millions | derived: Keeps the already recognized refund separate from repeatable module economics. Formula: subtract(guide_gross_before_credits, refund_benefit). |
| Analytical margin before credits/refund guide_core_margin | FY2026 / shared | 5.3% ratio | derived: Midpoint decomposition, not a company-disclosed segment margin. Formula: divide(guide_gross_before_refund, fy26_revenue_guide). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor downside_fy2026_delivery | FY2026 / downside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 4,797.50 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, downside_fy2026_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor downside_fy2026_eligible_factor | FY2026 / downside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits downside_fy2026_credits | FY2026 / downside | 1,973.40 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(fy26_credit_guide, downside_fy2026_eligible_factor). |
| Gross margin before credits and refund downside_fy2026_core_margin | FY2026 / downside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to price, mix, logistics, startup and utilization costs. No new tariff refund is included in this margin. |
| Gross profit before credits/refund downside_fy2026_core_gross | FY2026 / downside | 95.95 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_revenue, downside_fy2026_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 2,157.95 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(downside_fy2026_core_gross, downside_fy2026_credits, refund_benefit). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_fy2026_opex | FY2026 / downside | 635.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 1,522.95 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_gross_profit, downside_fy2026_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_fy2026_depreciation | FY2026 / downside | 580.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation downside_fy2026_sbc | FY2026 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_fy2026_cash_tax | FY2026 / downside | 170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses downside_fy2026_wc_other | FY2026 / downside | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual downside_fy2026_op_without_credits | FY2026 / downside | -450.45 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_operating_income, downside_fy2026_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses downside_fy2026_before_uses | FY2026 / downside | 65.95 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund, downside_fy2026_depreciation, downside_fy2026_sbc). |
| Cash collections from all credit vintages downside_fy2026_credit_cash | FY2026 / downside | 1,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk annual cash receipt assumption, including disclosed H1 receipts; timing and monetization discounts can differ from accrual. |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections downside_fy2026_cash_in | FY2026 / downside | 1,365.95 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(downside_fy2026_before_uses, downside_fy2026_credit_cash, downside_fy2026_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses downside_fy2026_cash_uses | FY2026 / downside | 570.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(downside_fy2026_cash_tax, downside_fy2026_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 795.95 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_cash_in, downside_fy2026_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 1,000.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | -204.05 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_cfo, downside_fy2026_capex). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor downside_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 4,797.50 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_revenue, downside_fy2027_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor downside_fy2027_eligible_factor | FY2027 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits downside_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / downside | 1,973.40 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_credits, downside_fy2027_eligible_factor). |
| Gross margin before credits and refund downside_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / downside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to price, mix, logistics, startup and utilization costs. No new tariff refund is included in this margin. |
| Gross profit before credits/refund downside_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / downside | 95.95 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 2,069.35 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(downside_fy2027_core_gross, downside_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / downside | 670.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 1,399.35 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_fy2027_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_fy2027_depreciation | FY2027 / downside | 600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation downside_fy2027_sbc | FY2027 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_fy2027_cash_tax | FY2027 / downside | 170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses downside_fy2027_wc_other | FY2027 / downside | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual downside_fy2027_op_without_credits | FY2027 / downside | -574.05 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_fy2027_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses downside_fy2027_before_uses | FY2027 / downside | 50.95 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_fy2027_op_without_credits, downside_fy2027_depreciation, downside_fy2027_sbc). |
| Credit cash / current-year credit accrual downside_fy2027_credit_cash_factor | FY2027 / downside | 70.0% ratio | assumption: Desk collection and monetization proxy; not a statutory credit rate or a forecast of a specific transfer agreement. |
| Cash collections from credit vintages downside_fy2027_credit_cash | FY2027 / downside | 1,381.38 USD_millions | derived: Separate cash-realization assumption applied to accrued credits. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_credits, downside_fy2027_credit_cash_factor). |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections downside_fy2027_cash_in | FY2027 / downside | 1,472.33 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(downside_fy2027_before_uses, downside_fy2027_credit_cash, downside_fy2027_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses downside_fy2027_cash_uses | FY2027 / downside | 570.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(downside_fy2027_cash_tax, downside_fy2027_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 902.33 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_cash_in, downside_fy2027_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 950.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | -47.67 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_fy2027_capex). |
| FY2026 remaining revenue downside_fy2026_remaining_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 2,697.07 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_revenue, h1_revenue). |
| FY2026 remaining gross_profit downside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 1,066.81 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_gross_profit, h1_gross_profit). |
| FY2026 remaining operating_income downside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 727.26 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_operating_income, h1_operating_income). |
| FY2026 remaining cfo downside_fy2026_remaining_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 1,155.72 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_cfo, h1_cfo). |
| FY2026 remaining capex downside_fy2026_remaining_capex | FY2026 / downside | 720.15 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_capex, h1_capex). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year revenue share downside_2026q3_revenue_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,213.68 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share downside_2026q3_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 gross_profit downside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | 480.07 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year operating_income share downside_2026q3_operating_income_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 operating_income downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 327.27 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year cfo share downside_2026q3_cfo_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 cfo downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | 288.93 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year capex share downside_2026q3_capex_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 capex downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 324.07 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_capex, downside_2026q3_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q3 cash after capex downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | -35.14 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year revenue share downside_2026q4_revenue_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,483.39 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share downside_2026q4_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 gross_profit downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 586.75 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year operating_income share downside_2026q4_operating_income_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 operating_income downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 399.99 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year cfo share downside_2026q4_cfo_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 75.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 cfo downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 866.79 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year capex share downside_2026q4_capex_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 capex downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 396.08 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2026_remaining_capex, downside_2026q4_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q4 cash after capex downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | 470.70 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| 2027Q1 full-year revenue share downside_2027q1_revenue_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 959.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_2027q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year gross_profit share downside_2027q1_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 gross_profit downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 413.87 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year operating_income share downside_2027q1_operating_income_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 operating_income downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 279.87 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_2027q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year cfo share downside_2027q1_cfo_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 cfo downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 90.23 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_2027q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year capex share downside_2027q1_capex_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 capex downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 190.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_capex, downside_2027q1_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q1 cash after capex downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -99.77 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 full-year revenue share downside_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,103.42 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year gross_profit share downside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 475.95 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year operating_income share downside_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 321.85 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year cfo share downside_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 cfo downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 135.35 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year capex share downside_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 capex downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 218.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_capex, downside_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -83.15 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 full-year revenue share downside_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,295.33 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year gross_profit share downside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 558.72 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year operating_income share downside_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 377.82 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year cfo share downside_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 cfo downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 270.70 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year capex share downside_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 capex downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 256.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_capex, downside_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | 14.20 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 full-year revenue share downside_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,439.25 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year gross_profit share downside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 620.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year operating_income share downside_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 419.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year cfo share downside_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 cfo downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 406.05 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year capex share downside_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 capex downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 285.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_fy2027_capex, downside_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 121.05 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor base_fy2026_delivery | FY2026 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 5,050.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, base_fy2026_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor base_fy2026_eligible_factor | FY2026 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits base_fy2026_credits | FY2026 / base | 2,145.00 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(fy26_credit_guide, base_fy2026_eligible_factor). |
| Gross profit before credits/refund base_fy2026_core_gross | FY2026 / base | 266.40 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_revenue, guide_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 2,500.00 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(base_fy2026_core_gross, base_fy2026_credits, refund_benefit). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_fy2026_opex | FY2026 / base | 622.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 1,877.50 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_gross_profit, base_fy2026_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_fy2026_depreciation | FY2026 / base | 590.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation base_fy2026_sbc | FY2026 / base | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance base_fy2026_cash_tax | FY2026 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses base_fy2026_wc_other | FY2026 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual base_fy2026_op_without_credits | FY2026 / base | -267.50 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_operating_income, base_fy2026_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses base_fy2026_before_uses | FY2026 / base | 261.90 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(base_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund, base_fy2026_depreciation, base_fy2026_sbc). |
| Cash collections from all credit vintages base_fy2026_credit_cash | FY2026 / base | 1,800.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk annual cash receipt assumption, including disclosed H1 receipts; timing and monetization discounts can differ from accrual. |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections base_fy2026_cash_in | FY2026 / base | 2,101.90 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(base_fy2026_before_uses, base_fy2026_credit_cash, base_fy2026_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses base_fy2026_cash_uses | FY2026 / base | 500.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(base_fy2026_cash_tax, base_fy2026_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 1,601.90 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_cash_in, base_fy2026_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 900.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 701.90 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_cfo, base_fy2026_capex). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor base_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / base | 110.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 5,555.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_revenue, base_fy2027_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor base_fy2027_eligible_factor | FY2027 / base | 110.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits base_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / base | 2,359.50 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_credits, base_fy2027_eligible_factor). |
| Gross margin before credits and refund base_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / base | 6.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to price, mix, logistics, startup and utilization costs. No new tariff refund is included in this margin. |
| Gross profit before credits/refund base_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / base | 333.30 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 2,692.80 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(base_fy2027_core_gross, base_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / base | 670.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 2,022.80 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_fy2027_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_fy2027_depreciation | FY2027 / base | 620.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation base_fy2027_sbc | FY2027 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance base_fy2027_cash_tax | FY2027 / base | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses base_fy2027_wc_other | FY2027 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual base_fy2027_op_without_credits | FY2027 / base | -336.70 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_fy2027_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses base_fy2027_before_uses | FY2027 / base | 313.30 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(base_fy2027_op_without_credits, base_fy2027_depreciation, base_fy2027_sbc). |
| Credit cash / current-year credit accrual base_fy2027_credit_cash_factor | FY2027 / base | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk collection and monetization proxy; not a statutory credit rate or a forecast of a specific transfer agreement. |
| Cash collections from credit vintages base_fy2027_credit_cash | FY2027 / base | 2,241.53 USD_millions | derived: Separate cash-realization assumption applied to accrued credits. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_credits, base_fy2027_credit_cash_factor). |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections base_fy2027_cash_in | FY2027 / base | 2,603.43 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(base_fy2027_before_uses, base_fy2027_credit_cash, base_fy2027_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses base_fy2027_cash_uses | FY2027 / base | 520.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(base_fy2027_cash_tax, base_fy2027_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 2,083.43 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_cash_in, base_fy2027_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 900.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 1,183.43 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_cfo, base_fy2027_capex). |
| FY2026 remaining revenue base_fy2026_remaining_revenue | FY2026 / base | 2,949.57 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_revenue, h1_revenue). |
| FY2026 remaining gross_profit base_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 1,408.87 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_gross_profit, h1_gross_profit). |
| FY2026 remaining operating_income base_fy2026_remaining_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 1,081.81 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_operating_income, h1_operating_income). |
| FY2026 remaining cfo base_fy2026_remaining_cfo | FY2026 / base | 1,961.67 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_cfo, h1_cfo). |
| FY2026 remaining capex base_fy2026_remaining_capex | FY2026 / base | 620.15 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_capex, h1_capex). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year revenue share base_2026q3_revenue_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,327.31 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share base_2026q3_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 gross_profit base_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 633.99 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year operating_income share base_2026q3_operating_income_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 operating_income base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | 486.81 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year cfo share base_2026q3_cfo_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 cfo base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 490.42 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year capex share base_2026q3_capex_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 capex base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 279.07 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_capex, base_2026q3_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q3 cash after capex base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | 211.35 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year revenue share base_2026q4_revenue_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1,622.26 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share base_2026q4_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 gross_profit base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 774.88 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year operating_income share base_2026q4_operating_income_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 operating_income base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 595.00 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year cfo share base_2026q4_cfo_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 75.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 cfo base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 1,471.25 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year capex share base_2026q4_capex_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 capex base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 341.08 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2026_remaining_capex, base_2026q4_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q4 cash after capex base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 1,130.17 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| 2027Q1 full-year revenue share base_2027q1_revenue_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,111.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_2027q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year gross_profit share base_2027q1_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 gross_profit base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 538.56 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_2027q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year operating_income share base_2027q1_operating_income_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 operating_income base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 404.56 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_2027q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year cfo share base_2027q1_cfo_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 cfo base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 208.34 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_cfo, base_2027q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year capex share base_2027q1_capex_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 capex base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_capex, base_2027q1_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q1 cash after capex base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 28.34 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 full-year revenue share base_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,277.65 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year gross_profit share base_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 619.34 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year operating_income share base_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 465.24 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year cfo share base_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 cfo base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 312.51 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year capex share base_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 capex base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 207.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_capex, base_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 105.51 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 full-year revenue share base_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 1,499.85 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year gross_profit share base_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 727.06 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year operating_income share base_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 546.16 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year cfo share base_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 cfo base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 625.03 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year capex share base_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 capex base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 243.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_capex, base_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 382.03 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 full-year revenue share base_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,666.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year gross_profit share base_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 807.84 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year operating_income share base_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 606.84 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year cfo share base_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 cfo base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 937.54 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year capex share base_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 capex base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 270.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_fy2027_capex, base_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 667.54 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor upside_fy2026_delivery | FY2026 / upside | 105.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 5,302.50 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(fy26_revenue_guide, upside_fy2026_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor upside_fy2026_eligible_factor | FY2026 / upside | 104.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits upside_fy2026_credits | FY2026 / upside | 2,230.80 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(fy26_credit_guide, upside_fy2026_eligible_factor). |
| Gross margin before credits and refund upside_fy2026_core_margin | FY2026 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to price, mix, logistics, startup and utilization costs. No new tariff refund is included in this margin. |
| Gross profit before credits/refund upside_fy2026_core_gross | FY2026 / upside | 371.18 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_revenue, upside_fy2026_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 2,690.58 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(upside_fy2026_core_gross, upside_fy2026_credits, refund_benefit). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_fy2026_opex | FY2026 / upside | 625.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 2,065.58 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_gross_profit, upside_fy2026_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_fy2026_depreciation | FY2026 / upside | 600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation upside_fy2026_sbc | FY2026 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_fy2026_cash_tax | FY2026 / upside | 230.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses upside_fy2026_wc_other | FY2026 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual upside_fy2026_op_without_credits | FY2026 / upside | -165.22 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_operating_income, upside_fy2026_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses upside_fy2026_before_uses | FY2026 / upside | 376.18 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund, upside_fy2026_depreciation, upside_fy2026_sbc). |
| Cash collections from all credit vintages upside_fy2026_credit_cash | FY2026 / upside | 2,100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk annual cash receipt assumption, including disclosed H1 receipts; timing and monetization discounts can differ from accrual. |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections upside_fy2026_cash_in | FY2026 / upside | 2,564.78 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(upside_fy2026_before_uses, upside_fy2026_credit_cash, upside_fy2026_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses upside_fy2026_cash_uses | FY2026 / upside | 480.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(upside_fy2026_cash_tax, upside_fy2026_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 2,084.78 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_cash_in, upside_fy2026_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 800.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 1,284.78 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_cfo, upside_fy2026_capex). |
| Revenue delivery/price factor upside_fy2027_delivery | FY2027 / upside | 117.0% ratio | assumption: Desk combined shipment, realized-price and mix sensitivity versus the guidance midpoint in FY2026 or prior modeled year in FY2027. |
| Revenue upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 6,203.92 USD_millions | derived: Revenue anchor times a separately stated execution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_revenue, upside_fy2027_delivery). |
| Eligible-production credit factor upside_fy2027_eligible_factor | FY2027 / upside | 120.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to eligible U.S. production and deliveries; separate from total worldwide revenue. |
| Accrued 45X manufacturing credits upside_fy2027_credits | FY2027 / upside | 2,676.96 USD_millions | derived: Credit anchor times eligible-production factor; this is not a cash receipt. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_credits, upside_fy2027_eligible_factor). |
| Gross margin before credits and refund upside_fy2027_core_margin | FY2027 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to price, mix, logistics, startup and utilization costs. No new tariff refund is included in this margin. |
| Gross profit before credits/refund upside_fy2027_core_gross | FY2027 / upside | 496.31 USD_millions | derived: Sales times the analytical underlying gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_fy2027_core_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 3,173.27 USD_millions | derived: Adds manufacturing credits; FY2026 also retains the refund already recognized in the first half. Formula: sum(upside_fy2027_core_gross, upside_fy2027_credits). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_fy2027_opex | FY2027 / upside | 710.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk SG&A, R&D and production-startup budget; FY2026 base is the company-range midpoint. |
| GAAP operating income upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 2,463.27 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses, including startup costs. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_fy2027_opex). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_fy2027_depreciation | FY2027 / upside | 650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash-expense assumption; H1 reported D&A was $295.238M. Changes reflect plant capacity and timing. |
| Equity compensation upside_fy2027_sbc | FY2027 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk noncash equity-compensation assumption; H1 reported expense was $13.826M. Add-back in cash flow does not remove dilution. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_fy2027_cash_tax | FY2027 / upside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash-tax assumption; not the GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Non-credit working capital and other net cash uses upside_fy2027_wc_other | FY2027 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net use for customer/supplier timing and other operating cash items, including net interest. Credit collection is handled separately. |
| Operating income excluding credit accrual upside_fy2027_op_without_credits | FY2027 / upside | -213.69 USD_millions | derived: Remove noncash credit accrual before substituting collections. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_fy2027_credits). |
| Cash earnings before tax/working-capital uses upside_fy2027_before_uses | FY2027 / upside | 471.31 USD_millions | derived: Add stated noncash expense assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_fy2027_op_without_credits, upside_fy2027_depreciation, upside_fy2027_sbc). |
| Credit cash / current-year credit accrual upside_fy2027_credit_cash_factor | FY2027 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk collection and monetization proxy; not a statutory credit rate or a forecast of a specific transfer agreement. |
| Cash collections from credit vintages upside_fy2027_credit_cash | FY2027 / upside | 2,676.96 USD_millions | derived: Separate cash-realization assumption applied to accrued credits. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_credits, upside_fy2027_credit_cash_factor). |
| Cash earnings plus credit collections upside_fy2027_cash_in | FY2027 / upside | 3,148.27 USD_millions | derived: Cash earnings plus independently assumed credit collections and net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund. Formula: sum(upside_fy2027_before_uses, upside_fy2027_credit_cash, upside_fy2027_refund_cash). |
| Cash taxes and other operating uses upside_fy2027_cash_uses | FY2027 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | derived: Explicit cash uses outside PP&E investment. Formula: sum(upside_fy2027_cash_tax, upside_fy2027_wc_other). |
| Operating cash flow upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 2,598.27 USD_millions | derived: Cash bridge, not adjusted EBITDA conversion. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_cash_in, upside_fy2027_cash_uses). |
| Cash purchases of PP&E upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 900.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-spending assumption; FY2026 cases span the company range. Excludes noncash PP&E additions. |
| Operating cash flow less capex upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 1,698.27 USD_millions | derived: Excludes financing, securities purchases and other investing cash flows. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_fy2027_capex). |
| FY2026 remaining revenue upside_fy2026_remaining_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 3,202.07 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_revenue, h1_revenue). |
| FY2026 remaining gross_profit upside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 1,599.44 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_gross_profit, h1_gross_profit). |
| FY2026 remaining operating_income upside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 1,269.89 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_operating_income, h1_operating_income). |
| FY2026 remaining cfo upside_fy2026_remaining_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 2,444.54 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_cfo, h1_cfo). |
| FY2026 remaining capex upside_fy2026_remaining_capex | FY2026 / upside | 520.15 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario less reported year-to-date actuals. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_capex, h1_capex). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year revenue share upside_2026q3_revenue_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,440.93 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year gross_profit share upside_2026q3_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 gross_profit upside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 719.75 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year operating_income share upside_2026q3_operating_income_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 operating_income upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 571.45 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year cfo share upside_2026q3_cfo_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 cfo upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 611.14 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q3 remaining-year capex share upside_2026q3_capex_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q3 capex upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 234.07 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_capex, upside_2026q3_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q3 cash after capex upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | 377.07 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year revenue share upside_2026q4_revenue_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,761.14 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year gross_profit share upside_2026q4_gross_profit_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 gross_profit upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 879.69 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year operating_income share upside_2026q4_operating_income_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 operating_income upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 698.44 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year cfo share upside_2026q4_cfo_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 75.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 cfo upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,833.41 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2026Q4 remaining-year capex share upside_2026q4_capex_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing assumption; shares sum to one for the remaining fiscal year. |
| 2026Q4 capex upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 286.08 USD_millions | derived: Remaining-year amount times its explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2026_remaining_capex, upside_2026q4_capex_weight). |
| 2026Q4 cash after capex upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,547.32 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| 2027Q1 full-year revenue share upside_2027q1_revenue_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,240.78 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_2027q1_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year gross_profit share upside_2027q1_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 gross_profit upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 634.65 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year operating_income share upside_2027q1_operating_income_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 operating_income upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 492.65 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_2027q1_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year cfo share upside_2027q1_cfo_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 cfo upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 259.83 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_2027q1_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q1 full-year capex share upside_2027q1_capex_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q1 capex upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_capex, upside_2027q1_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q1 cash after capex upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 79.83 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| 2027Q2 full-year revenue share upside_2027q2_revenue_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,426.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year gross_profit share upside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 gross_profit upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 729.85 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year operating_income share upside_2027q2_operating_income_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 operating_income upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 566.55 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year cfo share upside_2027q2_cfo_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 cfo upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 389.74 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q2 full-year capex share upside_2027q2_capex_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q2 capex upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 207.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_capex, upside_2027q2_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q2 cash after capex upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 182.74 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| 2027Q3 full-year revenue share upside_2027q3_revenue_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,675.06 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year gross_profit share upside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 gross_profit upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 856.78 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year operating_income share upside_2027q3_operating_income_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 operating_income upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 665.08 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year cfo share upside_2027q3_cfo_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 cfo upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 779.48 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q3 full-year capex share upside_2027q3_capex_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q3 capex upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 243.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_capex, upside_2027q3_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q3 cash after capex upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 536.48 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| 2027Q4 full-year revenue share upside_2027q4_revenue_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,861.18 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year gross_profit share upside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 gross_profit upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 951.98 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year operating_income share upside_2027q4_operating_income_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 operating_income upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 738.98 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year cfo share upside_2027q4_cfo_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 cfo upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,169.22 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo_weight). |
| 2027Q4 full-year capex share upside_2027q4_capex_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk quarterly timing assumption; four quarter shares sum to one. |
| 2027Q4 capex upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 270.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual amount times explicit quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_fy2027_capex, upside_2027q4_capex_weight). |
| 2027Q4 cash after capex upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 899.22 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Operating income excluding credits and refund accrual downside_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund | FY2026 / downside | -539.05 USD_millions | derived: Removes the already recognized net tariff-refund benefit before separately estimating its cash collection. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_op_without_credits, refund_benefit). |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund downside_fy2026_refund_cash | FY2026 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund downside_fy2027_refund_cash | FY2027 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Operating income excluding credits and refund accrual base_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund | FY2026 / base | -356.10 USD_millions | derived: Removes the already recognized net tariff-refund benefit before separately estimating its cash collection. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_op_without_credits, refund_benefit). |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund base_fy2026_refund_cash | FY2026 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund base_fy2027_refund_cash | FY2027 / base | 48.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Operating income excluding credits and refund accrual upside_fy2026_op_without_credit_refund | FY2026 / upside | -253.82 USD_millions | derived: Removes the already recognized net tariff-refund benefit before separately estimating its cash collection. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_op_without_credits, refund_benefit). |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund upside_fy2026_refund_cash | FY2026 / upside | 88.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
| Net cash realized from the Q2 2026 refund upside_fy2027_refund_cash | FY2027 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash timing after customer sharing; not a new benefit in gross profit. Across the two modeled years, receipts do not exceed the $88.6M recorded net benefit. |
Model boundaries
- Initial operating sensitivities, not a complete three-statement, plant-capacity or equity-valuation model. No FY2027 company guidance or consensus is assumed.
- The delivery factor combines volume, pricing and mix; the filing does not justify a single universal realized module price. Backlog can be delayed, renegotiated or canceled.
- Credit accrual and cash collection are different assumptions. The cash bridge bundles non-credit working capital and other cash items; it does not forecast each receivable, inventory balance or grant installment.
- FY2026 retains the Q2 recognized $88.6M net tariff-refund benefit in earnings, but cash collection is modeled separately. FY2027 has no new refund income; it can collect a portion of the prior-year amount.
- Historical cash is cash and equivalents, not the company net-cash measure. Long-term debt of zero in Q2 excludes $37.6M of current debt. Modeled cash after capex is not ending net cash.
Contracted module earnings are not the same as cash in hand
What part of earnings comes from module economics, manufacturing credits and nonrecurring benefits, and when is each collected?
The Q2 filing reconciles $605.0M gross profit with a net $88.6M tariff-refund benefit. The first half still used $359.8M of operating cash. Company guidance assumes substantial manufacturing credits, so the model displays those separately rather than extrapolating Q2 gross margin. Its cash bridge swaps accrued credits for assumed collections. The backlog is a delivery schedule subject to contract terms and execution, not an unconditional revenue guarantee. Net cash from the previously recognized tariff refund is also modeled separately from its earnings benefit, so a delayed payment can lower cash without changing gross profit.
The competing explanation
Domestic manufacturing scale and performance differentiation may sustain stronger pricing and customer demand than a commodity-module framework suggests. Efficient factory ramps and faster credit collection could make the cautious cash assumptions too low. The competing concern is that policy-supported gross profit masks weaker returns before subsidies and expansion capital.
Risks to track
- Customer disputes, contract changes and project financing can defer or reduce deliveries.
- Manufacturing-credit eligibility, monetization discounts and collection timing can change earnings or cash independently.
- Factory ramp, underutilization, technology performance and warranties can consume the expected margin.
- Trade restrictions, tariffs and export-market pricing affect U.S. and international production differently.
Next checkpoints
- Next quarterly results · Late October / early November 2026; issuer date not verified (estimated). Compare delivered volume, credit accrual, credit cash receipts and capex separately. Reconcile any refund update to the earlier recognized benefit.
- Contract and manufacturing updates · As disclosed (event driven). Check cancellation/renegotiation exposure, capacity utilization, technology-linked price adjustments and factory spending.
Data coverage and open work
- The analytical pre-credit margin is derived from guidance midpoints, not a disclosed segment measure or a normalized company earnings metric.
- The cash bridge does not forecast a full grant-receivable roll-forward, tax return or ending net-cash balance.
- No diluted EPS, share-price valuation or return forecast is supplied.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.0 | +0.1 | +2.1 | 52% |
| 5 sessions | -7.0 | +0.1 | +5.2 | 52% |
| 10 sessions | -9.7 | +0.3 | +8.0 | 52% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.