ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$FPS

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. · NYSE · SIC 3620 · CIK 2080126 · revision 3 as of 2026-09-19

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Research status

Evidence awaiting review · 74 pending evidence leads

Financial accounts through
2026-06-30
Authored update
2026-09-19
Source scan
Full model review
Not recorded
Latest event review
Not recorded
Oldest pending lead
Open evidence leads
  • FPS Stock Shot Up As Much As 13% Today Pre-Market – Record Orders, $3B Backlog And 76% FY27 Growth Guide Draw Investor Cheer - Stocktwits
  • Top Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) Competitors 2026 - MarketBeat
  • IPO News - US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers - renaissancecapital.com
  • Forgent Power Solutions Earnings Call Signals Powerful Growth - TipRanks
  • BofA cuts to the chase on AI data center demand - Fresno Bee

Leads require verification; they are not established material changes.

A published model and a successful scan do not establish a completed review. Status describes current monitoring; every promotion requires fresh checks.

Research status JSON

Business

Forgent manufactures electrical distribution equipment for data centers, grids and industrial facilities. Custom products and modular powertrain solutions convert orders into recognized progress and delivered equipment. Manufacturing capacity, customer advances and the Up-C ownership structure shape cash available after expansion.

Three drivers

  1. Custom and modular-powertrain backlog conversion
  2. Factory utilization, input cost and working-capital funding
  3. TRA payments, minority ownership and expansion cash

Thesis

Our view

The order book and new capacity support substantial growth, but the quality of that growth depends on margin and cash conversion. Customer advances and offering headlines must be separated from cash earned for public shareholders.

What changes it

Compare sequential backlog conversion with production margins, gross working-capital use, capex and ownership-related cash claims.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q1
2024-09-30
2025Q2
2024-12-31
2025Q3
2025-03-31
2025Q4
2025-06-30
2026Q1
2025-09-30
2026Q2
2025-12-31
2026Q3
2026-03-31
2026Q4
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)154.0†1175.32186.23237.6†4283.3†1296.42378.73461.7†4
Gross profit ($M)—63.8568.2679.7†7—101.85131.26166.7†7
Operating income ($M)22.6†818.9922.4108.3†1131.2†820.1939.31091.912
Net income ($M)6.3†134.6146.915-2.6†1610.0†130.21418.31553.317
EPS, diluted ($)————————
Diluted shares (M)————————
Cash ($M)———111.318—106.21993.82097.518
Long-term debt ($M)———496.921—579.022578.123576.221
Cash from operations ($M)——-7.5†24-7.2†25——29.2†2473.9†25
Capex ($M)——18.7†2641.0†27——28.2†2631.3†27
Free cash flow ($M)——-26.2†28-48.2†29——0.9†2842.6†29

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2027Q1480.0—2026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2560.0—2026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q3670.0—2026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q4790.0—2026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Backlog conversion, customer advances and public-owner cash claims

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Drive custom products, modular powertrain and other offerings independently. Base FY2027 revenue $2.5B, adjusted EBITDA $600M and capex $87M match September guidance midpoints or stated capex outlook. Track backlog as a stock: opening balance plus bookings less recognized sales and cancellations. Bridge EBITDA through cash costs and gross working-capital investment, customer advances and payables, then deduct capex, TRA payments and outside-owner distributions. Never treat secondary offering proceeds as incremental company funding.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2027 revenue guidance midpointFY20272,500.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpointFY2027600.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2027 PP&E outlook midpointFY202787.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
backlogJune / September 20263,000.00reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 customer advance flowFY2026152.96reported. USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 cfoFY2026109.08reported. USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 CFO less PP&EFY2026-6.82derived. No credit for equity proceeds paid to selling owners.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to operating incomeFY2026182.49derived. Other expense was included in EBITDA starting from consolidated net income.
cashJune / September 202697.48reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15
restrictedJune / September 202624.24reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15
tra liabilityJune / September 2026338.93reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15
Net offering cash after Opco purchasesFY20260.00derived. Zero before additional deferred offering costs.
debt principalJune / September 2026598.50reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15
expansion investmentJune / September 202635.00reported. Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Source · 2026-09-15

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Custom products ($M)Total revenue ($M)TRA cash payments ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Powertrain solutions ($M)Standard products and services ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)Outside-owner distributions ($M)
2027Q1-36.36-62.7626.40285.00443.000.0062.44135.0023.0036.44-66.764.00
2027Q2-41.08-71.0830.00310.00494.005.0078.12160.0024.0050.62-81.085.00
2027Q3-45.58-75.5830.00340.00565.008.0094.92200.0025.0066.92-89.586.00
2027Q4-23.95-41.9518.00380.00651.0010.00128.25245.0026.0098.75-58.957.00
FY2027-146.98-251.38104.401,315.002,153.0023.00363.73740.0098.00252.73-296.3822.00
FY2028-234.55-336.55102.001,750.003,134.0065.00531.351,270.00114.00398.35-439.5538.00

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Custom products ($M)Total revenue ($M)TRA cash payments ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Powertrain solutions ($M)Standard products and services ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)Outside-owner distributions ($M)
2027Q130.708.7022.00300.00480.000.00100.00155.0025.0074.004.704.00
2027Q245.7020.7025.00340.00560.005.00128.00193.0027.00100.5010.705.00
2027Q357.7032.7025.00380.00670.008.00162.00262.0028.00134.0018.706.00
2027Q492.7077.7015.00420.00790.0010.00210.00340.0030.00180.5060.707.00
FY2027226.80139.8087.001,440.002,500.0023.00600.00950.00110.00489.0094.8022.00
FY2028408.80323.8085.002,120.004,050.0065.001,023.001,790.00140.00890.00220.8038.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Custom products ($M)Total revenue ($M)TRA cash payments ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Powertrain solutions ($M)Standard products and services ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)Outside-owner distributions ($M)
2027Q152.9028.7024.20315.00506.000.00116.95165.0026.0090.9524.704.00
2027Q276.9749.4727.50355.00603.005.00152.53220.0028.00125.0339.475.00
2027Q392.5065.0027.50400.00720.008.00190.80290.0030.00162.8051.006.00
2027Q4129.30112.8016.50450.00842.0010.00241.35360.0032.00211.8595.807.00
FY2027351.67255.9795.701,520.002,671.0023.00701.621,035.00116.00590.62210.9722.00
FY2028683.67590.1793.502,300.004,563.0065.001,276.122,105.00158.001,143.12487.1738.00
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
FY2026 revenue
fy26_revenue
FY2026 / shared1,420.06
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 custom
fy26_custom
FY2026 / shared990.48
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 powertrain
fy26_powertrain
FY2026 / shared357.41
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 other revenue
fy26_other_revenue
FY2026 / shared72.17
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 adj ebitda
fy26_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / shared322.90
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 operating income
fy26_operating_income
FY2026 / shared182.49
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 cfo
fy26_cfo
FY2026 / shared109.08
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 capex
fy26_capex
FY2026 / shared115.91
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 da
fy26_da
FY2026 / shared66.90
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 sbc
fy26_sbc
FY2026 / shared10.04
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 sponsor
fy26_sponsor
FY2026 / shared18.82
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 readiness
fy26_readiness
FY2026 / shared21.21
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 earnout
fy26_earnout
FY2026 / shared5.40
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 integration
fy26_integration
FY2026 / shared18.80
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 other expense
fy26_other_expense
FY2026 / shared0.75
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 customer advance flow
fy26_customer_advance_flow
FY2026 / shared152.96
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 inventory cash use
fy26_inventory_cash_use
FY2026 / shared142.91
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 receivable cash use
fy26_receivable_cash_use
FY2026 / shared172.66
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 net income
fy26_net_income
FY2026 / shared106.03
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 public net income
fy26_public_net_income
FY2026 / shared81.84
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 ipo proceeds
fy26_ipo_proceeds
FY2026 / shared491.83
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 secondary proceeds
fy26_secondary_proceeds
FY2026 / shared1,033.13
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 opco purchase cash
fy26_opco_purchase_cash
FY2026 / shared1,524.96
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 outside distributions
fy26_outside_distributions
FY2026 / shared8.59
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2026 CFO less PP&E
fy26_fcf
FY2026 / shared-6.82
USD_millions
derived: No credit for equity proceeds paid to selling owners. Formula: subtract(fy26_cfo, fy26_capex).
D&A SBC and adjusted cash-cost exclusions
fy26_adjustments
FY2026 / shared141.16
USD_millions
derived: Company adjusted reconciliation. Formula: sum(fy26_da, fy26_sbc, fy26_sponsor, fy26_readiness, fy26_earnout, fy26_integration).
EBITDA after disclosed exclusions
fy26_after_adjustments
FY2026 / shared181.74
USD_millions
derived: Before nonoperating residual. Formula: subtract(fy26_adj_ebitda, fy26_adjustments).
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to operating income
fy26_gaap_bridge
FY2026 / shared182.49
USD_millions
derived: Other expense was included in EBITDA starting from consolidated net income. Formula: sum(fy26_after_adjustments, fy26_other_expense).
Net-of-underwriting offering receipts
gross_offering_cash
FY2026 / shared1,524.96
USD_millions
derived: Receipts are offset by seller payments. Formula: sum(fy26_ipo_proceeds, fy26_secondary_proceeds).
Net offering cash after Opco purchases
net_offering_cash
FY2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
derived: Zero before additional deferred offering costs. Formula: subtract(gross_offering_cash, fy26_opco_purchase_cash).
cash
cash
June / September 2026 / shared97.48
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
restricted
restricted
June / September 2026 / shared24.24
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
tra liability
tra_liability
June / September 2026 / shared338.93
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
backlog
backlog
June / September 2026 / shared3,000.00
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
debt principal
debt_principal
June / September 2026 / shared598.50
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
expansion investment
expansion_investment
June / September 2026 / shared35.00
USD_millions
reported: Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. Restricted cash and TRA claims are not freely available funds. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 revenue guidance low
fy27_revenue_guide_low
FY2027 / shared2,400.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 revenue guidance high
fy27_revenue_guide_high
FY2027 / shared2,600.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2027 revenue guidance endpoint sum
fy27_revenue_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared5,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_revenue_guide_low, fy27_revenue_guide_high).
FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint
fy27_revenue_guide
FY2027 / shared2,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_revenue_guide_sum, two).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance low
fy27_ebitda_guide_low
FY2027 / shared575.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance high
fy27_ebitda_guide_high
FY2027 / shared625.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance endpoint sum
fy27_ebitda_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared1,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_ebitda_guide_low, fy27_ebitda_guide_high).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint
fy27_ebitda_guide
FY2027 / shared600.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
FY2027 PP&E outlook low
fy27_capex_guide_low
FY2027 / shared87.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 PP&E outlook high
fy27_capex_guide_high
FY2027 / shared87.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-15
FY2027 PP&E outlook endpoint sum
fy27_capex_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared174.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_capex_guide_low, fy27_capex_guide_high).
FY2027 PP&E outlook midpoint
fy27_capex_guide
FY2027 / shared87.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_capex_guide_sum, two).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2027q1_custom_activity
2027Q1 / downside285.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2027q1_custom_realization
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2027q1_custom
2027Q1 / downside285.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_custom_activity, downside_2027q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2027q1_pts_activity
2027Q1 / downside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2027q1_pts_realization
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2027q1_powertrain
2027Q1 / downside135.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pts_activity, downside_2027q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside443.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_custom, downside_2027q1_powertrain, downside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / downside143.97
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / downside81.54
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside62.44
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_gross, downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside26.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside36.44
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2027q1_advance_flow
2027Q1 / downside17.50
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2027q1_gross_wc
2027Q1 / downside112.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2027q1_payables
2027Q1 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2027q1_working_sources
2027Q1 / downside47.50
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_payables, downside_2027q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / downside64.50
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_wc, downside_2027q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2027q1_cash_profit
2027Q1 / downside63.14
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside99.50
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q1_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-36.36
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_profit, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside26.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-62.76
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2027q1_tra_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2027q1_owner_distributions
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2027q1_owner_claims
2027Q1 / downside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_tra_cash, downside_2027q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside-66.76
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2027q1_bookings
2027Q1 / downside800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2027q1_cancellations
2027Q1 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2027q1_available_backlog
2027Q1 / downside3,800.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(backlog, downside_2027q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2027q1_backlog_consumption
2027Q1 / downside463.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2027q1_ending_backlog
2027Q1 / downside3,337.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_available_backlog, downside_2027q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2027q2_custom_activity
2027Q2 / downside310.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2027q2_custom_realization
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2027q2_custom
2027Q2 / downside310.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_custom_activity, downside_2027q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2027q2_pts_activity
2027Q2 / downside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2027q2_pts_realization
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2027q2_powertrain
2027Q2 / downside160.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pts_activity, downside_2027q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside494.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_custom, downside_2027q2_powertrain, downside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / downside160.55
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / downside82.43
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside78.12
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_gross, downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside5.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside27.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside50.62
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2027q2_advance_flow
2027Q2 / downside22.50
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2027q2_gross_wc
2027Q2 / downside134.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2027q2_payables
2027Q2 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2027q2_working_sources
2027Q2 / downside57.50
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_payables, downside_2027q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / downside76.90
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_wc, downside_2027q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2027q2_cash_profit
2027Q2 / downside78.82
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside119.90
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q2_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-41.08
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_profit, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-71.08
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2027q2_tra_cash
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2027q2_owner_distributions
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2027q2_owner_claims
2027Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_tra_cash, downside_2027q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside-81.08
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2027q2_bookings
2027Q2 / downside850.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2027q2_cancellations
2027Q2 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2027q2_available_backlog
2027Q2 / downside4,187.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ending_backlog, downside_2027q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2027q2_backlog_consumption
2027Q2 / downside519.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2027q2_ending_backlog
2027Q2 / downside3,668.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_available_backlog, downside_2027q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2027q3_custom_activity
2027Q3 / downside340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2027q3_custom_realization
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2027q3_custom
2027Q3 / downside340.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_custom_activity, downside_2027q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2027q3_pts_activity
2027Q3 / downside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2027q3_pts_realization
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2027q3_powertrain
2027Q3 / downside200.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pts_activity, downside_2027q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside565.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_custom, downside_2027q3_powertrain, downside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / downside183.62
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / downside88.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside94.92
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_gross, downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside28.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside66.92
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2027q3_advance_flow
2027Q3 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2027q3_gross_wc
2027Q3 / downside151.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2027q3_payables
2027Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2027q3_working_sources
2027Q3 / downside60.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_payables, downside_2027q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / downside91.20
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_wc, downside_2027q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2027q3_cash_profit
2027Q3 / downside95.62
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside141.20
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q3_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-45.58
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_profit, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-75.58
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2027q3_tra_cash
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2027q3_owner_distributions
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2027q3_owner_claims
2027Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_tra_cash, downside_2027q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside-89.58
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2027q3_bookings
2027Q3 / downside900.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2027q3_cancellations
2027Q3 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2027q3_available_backlog
2027Q3 / downside4,568.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_ending_backlog, downside_2027q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2027q3_backlog_consumption
2027Q3 / downside595.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2027q3_ending_backlog
2027Q3 / downside3,973.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_available_backlog, downside_2027q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2027q4_custom_activity
2027Q4 / downside380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2027q4_custom_realization
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2027q4_custom
2027Q4 / downside380.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_custom_activity, downside_2027q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2027q4_pts_activity
2027Q4 / downside245.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2027q4_pts_realization
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2027q4_powertrain
2027Q4 / downside245.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pts_activity, downside_2027q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / downside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside651.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_custom, downside_2027q4_powertrain, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / downside211.58
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / downside83.33
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside128.25
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_gross, downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside29.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside98.75
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2027q4_advance_flow
2027Q4 / downside17.50
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2027q4_gross_wc
2027Q4 / downside162.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2027q4_payables
2027Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2027q4_working_sources
2027Q4 / downside67.50
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_payables, downside_2027q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / downside94.90
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_wc, downside_2027q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2027q4_cash_profit
2027Q4 / downside128.95
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside152.90
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q4_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-23.95
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_profit, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-41.95
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2027q4_tra_cash
2027Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2027q4_owner_distributions
2027Q4 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2027q4_owner_claims
2027Q4 / downside17.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_tra_cash, downside_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside-58.95
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2027q4_bookings
2027Q4 / downside950.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2027q4_cancellations
2027Q4 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2027q4_available_backlog
2027Q4 / downside4,923.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_ending_backlog, downside_2027q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2027q4_backlog_consumption
2027Q4 / downside686.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2027q4_ending_backlog
2027Q4 / downside4,237.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_available_backlog, downside_2027q4_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2028q1_custom_activity
2028Q1 / downside400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2028q1_custom_realization
2028Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2028q1_custom
2028Q1 / downside400.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_custom_activity, downside_2028q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2028q1_pts_activity
2028Q1 / downside280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2028q1_pts_realization
2028Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2028q1_powertrain
2028Q1 / downside280.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_pts_activity, downside_2028q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2028q1_other_revenue
2028Q1 / downside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / downside707.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_custom, downside_2028q1_powertrain, downside_2028q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2028q1_gross_margin
2028Q1 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2028q1_cash_gross
2028Q1 / downside229.78
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2028q1_adjusted_opex
2028Q1 / downside106.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2028q1_adj_ebitda
2028Q1 / downside123.38
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_gross, downside_2028q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2028q1_cash_adjustments
2028Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2028q1_gaap_adjustments
2028Q1 / downside31.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_da, downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / downside92.38
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2028q1_advance_flow
2028Q1 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2028q1_gross_wc
2028Q1 / downside168.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2028q1_payables
2028Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2028q1_working_sources
2028Q1 / downside60.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_payables, downside_2028q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2028q1_working_cash
2028Q1 / downside108.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_gross_wc, downside_2028q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2028q1_interest_income
2028Q1 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2028q1_cash_profit
2028Q1 / downside124.08
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2028q1_cash_interest
2028Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / downside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / downside174.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_adjustments, downside_2028q1_cash_interest, downside_2028q1_cash_tax, downside_2028q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / downside-49.93
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_profit, downside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / downside21.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / downside-71.53
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2028q1_tra_cash
2028Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2028q1_owner_distributions
2028Q1 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2028q1_owner_claims
2028Q1 / downside20.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_tra_cash, downside_2028q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / downside-91.53
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2028q1_bookings
2028Q1 / downside1,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2028q1_cancellations
2028Q1 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2028q1_available_backlog
2028Q1 / downside5,237.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_ending_backlog, downside_2028q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2028q1_backlog_consumption
2028Q1 / downside747.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2028q1_ending_backlog
2028Q1 / downside4,490.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_available_backlog, downside_2028q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2028q2_custom_activity
2028Q2 / downside425.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2028q2_custom_realization
2028Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2028q2_custom
2028Q2 / downside425.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_custom_activity, downside_2028q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2028q2_pts_activity
2028Q2 / downside310.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2028q2_pts_realization
2028Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2028q2_powertrain
2028Q2 / downside310.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_pts_activity, downside_2028q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2028q2_other_revenue
2028Q2 / downside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / downside763.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_custom, downside_2028q2_powertrain, downside_2028q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2028q2_gross_margin
2028Q2 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2028q2_cash_gross
2028Q2 / downside247.97
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2028q2_adjusted_opex
2028Q2 / downside116.48
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2028q2_adj_ebitda
2028Q2 / downside131.49
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_gross, downside_2028q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / downside7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2028q2_cash_adjustments
2028Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2028q2_gaap_adjustments
2028Q2 / downside32.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_da, downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / downside98.99
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2028q2_advance_flow
2028Q2 / downside17.50
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2028q2_gross_wc
2028Q2 / downside179.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2028q2_payables
2028Q2 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2028q2_working_sources
2028Q2 / downside67.50
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_payables, downside_2028q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2028q2_working_cash
2028Q2 / downside111.70
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_gross_wc, downside_2028q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2028q2_interest_income
2028Q2 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2028q2_cash_profit
2028Q2 / downside132.19
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2028q2_cash_interest
2028Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / downside185.70
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_cash_adjustments, downside_2028q2_cash_interest, downside_2028q2_cash_tax, downside_2028q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / downside-53.51
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_profit, downside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / downside-77.51
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2028q2_tra_cash
2028Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2028q2_owner_distributions
2028Q2 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2028q2_owner_claims
2028Q2 / downside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_tra_cash, downside_2028q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / downside-101.51
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2028q2_bookings
2028Q2 / downside1,050.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2028q2_cancellations
2028Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2028q2_available_backlog
2028Q2 / downside5,540.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_ending_backlog, downside_2028q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2028q2_backlog_consumption
2028Q2 / downside808.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2028q2_ending_backlog
2028Q2 / downside4,732.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_available_backlog, downside_2028q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2028q3_custom_activity
2028Q3 / downside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2028q3_custom_realization
2028Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2028q3_custom
2028Q3 / downside450.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_custom_activity, downside_2028q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2028q3_pts_activity
2028Q3 / downside330.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2028q3_pts_realization
2028Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2028q3_powertrain
2028Q3 / downside330.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_pts_activity, downside_2028q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2028q3_other_revenue
2028Q3 / downside29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / downside809.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_custom, downside_2028q3_powertrain, downside_2028q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2028q3_gross_margin
2028Q3 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2028q3_cash_gross
2028Q3 / downside262.93
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2028q3_adjusted_opex
2028Q3 / downside125.44
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2028q3_adj_ebitda
2028Q3 / downside137.49
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_gross, downside_2028q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2028q3_cash_adjustments
2028Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2028q3_gaap_adjustments
2028Q3 / downside34.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_da, downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / downside103.49
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2028q3_advance_flow
2028Q3 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2028q3_gross_wc
2028Q3 / downside190.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2028q3_payables
2028Q3 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2028q3_working_sources
2028Q3 / downside75.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_payables, downside_2028q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2028q3_working_cash
2028Q3 / downside115.40
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_gross_wc, downside_2028q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2028q3_interest_income
2028Q3 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2028q3_cash_profit
2028Q3 / downside138.19
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2028q3_cash_interest
2028Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / downside68.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / downside197.40
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_cash_adjustments, downside_2028q3_cash_interest, downside_2028q3_cash_tax, downside_2028q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / downside-59.22
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_profit, downside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / downside26.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / downside-85.62
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2028q3_tra_cash
2028Q3 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2028q3_owner_distributions
2028Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2028q3_owner_claims
2028Q3 / downside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_tra_cash, downside_2028q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / downside-113.62
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2028q3_bookings
2028Q3 / downside1,100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2028q3_cancellations
2028Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2028q3_available_backlog
2028Q3 / downside5,832.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_ending_backlog, downside_2028q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2028q3_backlog_consumption
2028Q3 / downside859.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2028q3_ending_backlog
2028Q3 / downside4,973.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_available_backlog, downside_2028q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
downside_2028q4_custom_activity
2028Q4 / downside475.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
downside_2028q4_custom_realization
2028Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
downside_2028q4_custom
2028Q4 / downside475.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_custom_activity, downside_2028q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
downside_2028q4_pts_activity
2028Q4 / downside350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
downside_2028q4_pts_realization
2028Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
downside_2028q4_powertrain
2028Q4 / downside350.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_pts_activity, downside_2028q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
downside_2028q4_other_revenue
2028Q4 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
downside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / downside855.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_custom, downside_2028q4_powertrain, downside_2028q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
downside_2028q4_gross_margin
2028Q4 / downside32.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
downside_2028q4_cash_gross
2028Q4 / downside277.88
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
downside_2028q4_adjusted_opex
2028Q4 / downside138.88
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2028q4_adj_ebitda
2028Q4 / downside138.99
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_gross, downside_2028q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
downside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
downside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / downside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
downside_2028q4_cash_adjustments
2028Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
downside_2028q4_gaap_adjustments
2028Q4 / downside35.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_da, downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / downside103.49
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
downside_2028q4_advance_flow
2028Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
downside_2028q4_gross_wc
2028Q4 / downside201.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
downside_2028q4_payables
2028Q4 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
downside_2028q4_working_sources
2028Q4 / downside80.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_payables, downside_2028q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
downside_2028q4_working_cash
2028Q4 / downside121.60
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_gross_wc, downside_2028q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
downside_2028q4_interest_income
2028Q4 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
downside_2028q4_cash_profit
2028Q4 / downside139.69
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
downside_2028q4_cash_interest
2028Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
downside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / downside76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
downside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / downside211.60
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_cash_adjustments, downside_2028q4_cash_interest, downside_2028q4_cash_tax, downside_2028q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / downside-71.91
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_profit, downside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / downside-101.91
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
downside_2028q4_tra_cash
2028Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
downside_2028q4_owner_distributions
2028Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
downside_2028q4_owner_claims
2028Q4 / downside31.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_tra_cash, downside_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
downside_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / downside-132.91
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_fcf, downside_2028q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
downside_2028q4_bookings
2028Q4 / downside1,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
downside_2028q4_cancellations
2028Q4 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
downside_2028q4_available_backlog
2028Q4 / downside6,123.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_ending_backlog, downside_2028q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
downside_2028q4_backlog_consumption
2028Q4 / downside910.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
downside_2028q4_ending_backlog
2028Q4 / downside5,213.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_available_backlog, downside_2028q4_backlog_consumption).
Total revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside2,153.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
downside_fy2027_custom
FY2027 / downside1,315.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_custom, downside_2027q2_custom, downside_2027q3_custom, downside_2027q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
downside_fy2027_powertrain
FY2027 / downside740.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_powertrain, downside_2027q2_powertrain, downside_2027q3_powertrain, downside_2027q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
downside_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / downside98.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / downside363.73
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside252.73
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-146.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside104.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-251.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_tra_cash
FY2027 / downside23.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_tra_cash, downside_2027q2_tra_cash, downside_2027q3_tra_cash, downside_2027q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
downside_fy2027_owner_distributions
FY2027 / downside22.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_owner_distributions, downside_2027q2_owner_distributions, downside_2027q3_owner_distributions, downside_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside-296.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Total revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / downside3,134.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
downside_fy2028_custom
FY2028 / downside1,750.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_custom, downside_2028q2_custom, downside_2028q3_custom, downside_2028q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
downside_fy2028_powertrain
FY2028 / downside1,270.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_powertrain, downside_2028q2_powertrain, downside_2028q3_powertrain, downside_2028q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
downside_fy2028_other_revenue
FY2028 / downside114.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_other_revenue, downside_2028q2_other_revenue, downside_2028q3_other_revenue, downside_2028q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_adj_ebitda
FY2028 / downside531.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2028q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / downside398.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / downside-234.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / downside102.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_capex, downside_2028q2_capex, downside_2028q3_capex, downside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / downside-336.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
downside_fy2028_tra_cash
FY2028 / downside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_tra_cash, downside_2028q2_tra_cash, downside_2028q3_tra_cash, downside_2028q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
downside_fy2028_owner_distributions
FY2028 / downside38.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_owner_distributions, downside_2028q2_owner_distributions, downside_2028q3_owner_distributions, downside_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / downside-439.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q4_cash_after_claims).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2027q1_custom_activity
2027Q1 / base300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2027q1_custom_realization
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2027q1_custom
2027Q1 / base300.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_custom_activity, base_2027q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2027q1_pts_activity
2027Q1 / base155.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2027q1_pts_realization
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2027q1_powertrain
2027Q1 / base155.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pts_activity, base_2027q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base480.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_custom, base_2027q1_powertrain, base_2027q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / base172.80
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / base72.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / base100.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_gross, base_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / base26.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base74.00
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2027q1_advance_flow
2027Q1 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2027q1_gross_wc
2027Q1 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2027q1_payables
2027Q1 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2027q1_working_sources
2027Q1 / base65.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_payables, base_2027q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_wc, base_2027q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2027q1_cash_profit
2027Q1 / base100.70
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base70.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_adjustments, base_2027q1_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base30.70
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_profit, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base8.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2027q1_tra_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2027q1_owner_distributions
2027Q1 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2027q1_owner_claims
2027Q1 / base4.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_tra_cash, base_2027q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base4.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2027q1_bookings
2027Q1 / base1,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2027q1_cancellations
2027Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2027q1_available_backlog
2027Q1 / base4,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(backlog, base_2027q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2027q1_backlog_consumption
2027Q1 / base500.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2027q1_ending_backlog
2027Q1 / base3,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_available_backlog, base_2027q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2027q2_custom_activity
2027Q2 / base340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2027q2_custom_realization
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2027q2_custom
2027Q2 / base340.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_custom_activity, base_2027q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2027q2_pts_activity
2027Q2 / base193.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2027q2_pts_realization
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2027q2_powertrain
2027Q2 / base193.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pts_activity, base_2027q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / base27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base560.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_custom, base_2027q2_powertrain, base_2027q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / base201.60
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / base73.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / base128.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_gross, base_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base5.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / base27.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base100.50
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2027q2_advance_flow
2027Q2 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2027q2_gross_wc
2027Q2 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2027q2_payables
2027Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2027q2_working_sources
2027Q2 / base80.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_payables, base_2027q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_wc, base_2027q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2027q2_cash_profit
2027Q2 / base128.70
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base83.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_adjustments, base_2027q2_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base45.70
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_profit, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base20.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2027q2_tra_cash
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2027q2_owner_distributions
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2027q2_owner_claims
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_tra_cash, base_2027q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base10.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2027q2_bookings
2027Q2 / base1,050.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2027q2_cancellations
2027Q2 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2027q2_available_backlog
2027Q2 / base4,550.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ending_backlog, base_2027q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2027q2_backlog_consumption
2027Q2 / base585.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2027q2_ending_backlog
2027Q2 / base3,965.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_available_backlog, base_2027q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2027q3_custom_activity
2027Q3 / base380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2027q3_custom_realization
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2027q3_custom
2027Q3 / base380.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_custom_activity, base_2027q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2027q3_pts_activity
2027Q3 / base262.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2027q3_pts_realization
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2027q3_powertrain
2027Q3 / base262.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pts_activity, base_2027q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base670.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_custom, base_2027q3_powertrain, base_2027q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / base241.20
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / base79.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / base162.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_gross, base_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / base28.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base134.00
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2027q3_advance_flow
2027Q3 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2027q3_gross_wc
2027Q3 / base135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2027q3_payables
2027Q3 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2027q3_working_sources
2027Q3 / base80.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_payables, base_2027q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / base55.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_wc, base_2027q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2027q3_cash_profit
2027Q3 / base162.70
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base105.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_adjustments, base_2027q3_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base57.70
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_profit, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base32.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2027q3_tra_cash
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2027q3_owner_distributions
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2027q3_owner_claims
2027Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_tra_cash, base_2027q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base18.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2027q3_bookings
2027Q3 / base1,100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2027q3_cancellations
2027Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2027q3_available_backlog
2027Q3 / base5,065.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_ending_backlog, base_2027q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2027q3_backlog_consumption
2027Q3 / base700.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2027q3_ending_backlog
2027Q3 / base4,365.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_available_backlog, base_2027q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2027q4_custom_activity
2027Q4 / base420.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2027q4_custom_realization
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2027q4_custom
2027Q4 / base420.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_custom_activity, base_2027q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2027q4_pts_activity
2027Q4 / base340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2027q4_pts_realization
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2027q4_powertrain
2027Q4 / base340.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pts_activity, base_2027q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base790.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_custom, base_2027q4_powertrain, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / base284.40
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / base74.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_gross, base_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / base29.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base180.50
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2027q4_advance_flow
2027Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2027q4_gross_wc
2027Q4 / base145.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2027q4_payables
2027Q4 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2027q4_working_sources
2027Q4 / base85.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_payables, base_2027q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / base60.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_wc, base_2027q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2027q4_cash_profit
2027Q4 / base210.70
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base118.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_adjustments, base_2027q4_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base92.70
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_profit, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base77.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2027q4_tra_cash
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2027q4_owner_distributions
2027Q4 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2027q4_owner_claims
2027Q4 / base17.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_tra_cash, base_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base60.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2027q4_bookings
2027Q4 / base1,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2027q4_cancellations
2027Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2027q4_available_backlog
2027Q4 / base5,515.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_ending_backlog, base_2027q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2027q4_backlog_consumption
2027Q4 / base825.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2027q4_ending_backlog
2027Q4 / base4,690.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_available_backlog, base_2027q4_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2028q1_custom_activity
2028Q1 / base470.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2028q1_custom_realization
2028Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2028q1_custom
2028Q1 / base470.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_custom_activity, base_2028q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2028q1_pts_activity
2028Q1 / base380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2028q1_pts_realization
2028Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2028q1_powertrain
2028Q1 / base380.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_pts_activity, base_2028q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2028q1_other_revenue
2028Q1 / base32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / base882.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_custom, base_2028q1_powertrain, base_2028q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2028q1_gross_margin
2028Q1 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2028q1_cash_gross
2028Q1 / base317.52
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2028q1_adjusted_opex
2028Q1 / base95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2028q1_adj_ebitda
2028Q1 / base222.52
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_gross, base_2028q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2028q1_cash_adjustments
2028Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2028q1_gaap_adjustments
2028Q1 / base31.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_da, base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / base191.52
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_adj_ebitda, base_2028q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2028q1_advance_flow
2028Q1 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2028q1_gross_wc
2028Q1 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2028q1_payables
2028Q1 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2028q1_working_sources
2028Q1 / base75.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_payables, base_2028q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2028q1_working_cash
2028Q1 / base75.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_gross_wc, base_2028q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2028q1_interest_income
2028Q1 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2028q1_cash_profit
2028Q1 / base223.22
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_adj_ebitda, base_2028q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2028q1_cash_interest
2028Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / base52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / base141.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_adjustments, base_2028q1_cash_interest, base_2028q1_cash_tax, base_2028q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / base82.22
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_profit, base_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / base64.22
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2028q1_tra_cash
2028Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2028q1_owner_distributions
2028Q1 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2028q1_owner_claims
2028Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_tra_cash, base_2028q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / base44.22
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2028q1_bookings
2028Q1 / base1,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2028q1_cancellations
2028Q1 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2028q1_available_backlog
2028Q1 / base5,890.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_ending_backlog, base_2028q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2028q1_backlog_consumption
2028Q1 / base922.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2028q1_ending_backlog
2028Q1 / base4,968.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_available_backlog, base_2028q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2028q2_custom_activity
2028Q2 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2028q2_custom_realization
2028Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2028q2_custom
2028Q2 / base510.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_custom_activity, base_2028q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2028q2_pts_activity
2028Q2 / base425.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2028q2_pts_realization
2028Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2028q2_powertrain
2028Q2 / base425.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_pts_activity, base_2028q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2028q2_other_revenue
2028Q2 / base34.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / base969.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_custom, base_2028q2_powertrain, base_2028q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2028q2_gross_margin
2028Q2 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2028q2_cash_gross
2028Q2 / base348.84
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2028q2_adjusted_opex
2028Q2 / base104.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2028q2_adj_ebitda
2028Q2 / base244.84
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_gross, base_2028q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / base7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2028q2_cash_adjustments
2028Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2028q2_gaap_adjustments
2028Q2 / base32.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_da, base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / base212.34
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_adj_ebitda, base_2028q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2028q2_advance_flow
2028Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2028q2_gross_wc
2028Q2 / base160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2028q2_payables
2028Q2 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2028q2_working_sources
2028Q2 / base85.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_payables, base_2028q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2028q2_working_cash
2028Q2 / base75.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_gross_wc, base_2028q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2028q2_interest_income
2028Q2 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2028q2_cash_profit
2028Q2 / base245.54
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_adj_ebitda, base_2028q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2028q2_cash_interest
2028Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / base60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / base149.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_cash_adjustments, base_2028q2_cash_interest, base_2028q2_cash_tax, base_2028q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / base96.54
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_profit, base_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / base76.54
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2028q2_tra_cash
2028Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2028q2_owner_distributions
2028Q2 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2028q2_owner_claims
2028Q2 / base24.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_tra_cash, base_2028q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / base52.54
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2028q2_bookings
2028Q2 / base1,250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2028q2_cancellations
2028Q2 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2028q2_available_backlog
2028Q2 / base6,218.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_ending_backlog, base_2028q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2028q2_backlog_consumption
2028Q2 / base1,014.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2028q2_ending_backlog
2028Q2 / base5,204.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_available_backlog, base_2028q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2028q3_custom_activity
2028Q3 / base550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2028q3_custom_realization
2028Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2028q3_custom
2028Q3 / base550.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_custom_activity, base_2028q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2028q3_pts_activity
2028Q3 / base470.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2028q3_pts_realization
2028Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2028q3_powertrain
2028Q3 / base470.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_pts_activity, base_2028q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2028q3_other_revenue
2028Q3 / base36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / base1,056.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_custom, base_2028q3_powertrain, base_2028q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2028q3_gross_margin
2028Q3 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2028q3_cash_gross
2028Q3 / base380.16
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2028q3_adjusted_opex
2028Q3 / base112.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2028q3_adj_ebitda
2028Q3 / base268.16
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_gross, base_2028q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2028q3_cash_adjustments
2028Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2028q3_gaap_adjustments
2028Q3 / base34.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_da, base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / base234.16
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_adj_ebitda, base_2028q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2028q3_advance_flow
2028Q3 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2028q3_gross_wc
2028Q3 / base170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2028q3_payables
2028Q3 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2028q3_working_sources
2028Q3 / base95.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_payables, base_2028q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2028q3_working_cash
2028Q3 / base75.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_gross_wc, base_2028q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2028q3_interest_income
2028Q3 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2028q3_cash_profit
2028Q3 / base268.86
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_adj_ebitda, base_2028q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2028q3_cash_interest
2028Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / base68.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / base157.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_cash_adjustments, base_2028q3_cash_interest, base_2028q3_cash_tax, base_2028q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / base111.86
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_profit, base_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / base89.86
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2028q3_tra_cash
2028Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2028q3_owner_distributions
2028Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2028q3_owner_claims
2028Q3 / base28.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_tra_cash, base_2028q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / base61.86
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2028q3_bookings
2028Q3 / base1,300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2028q3_cancellations
2028Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2028q3_available_backlog
2028Q3 / base6,504.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_ending_backlog, base_2028q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2028q3_backlog_consumption
2028Q3 / base1,106.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2028q3_ending_backlog
2028Q3 / base5,398.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_available_backlog, base_2028q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
base_2028q4_custom_activity
2028Q4 / base590.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
base_2028q4_custom_realization
2028Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
base_2028q4_custom
2028Q4 / base590.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_custom_activity, base_2028q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
base_2028q4_pts_activity
2028Q4 / base515.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
base_2028q4_pts_realization
2028Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
base_2028q4_powertrain
2028Q4 / base515.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_pts_activity, base_2028q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
base_2028q4_other_revenue
2028Q4 / base38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
base_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / base1,143.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_custom, base_2028q4_powertrain, base_2028q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
base_2028q4_gross_margin
2028Q4 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
base_2028q4_cash_gross
2028Q4 / base411.48
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
base_2028q4_adjusted_opex
2028Q4 / base124.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2028q4_adj_ebitda
2028Q4 / base287.48
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_gross, base_2028q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
base_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
base_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / base8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
base_2028q4_cash_adjustments
2028Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
base_2028q4_gaap_adjustments
2028Q4 / base35.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_da, base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / base251.98
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_adj_ebitda, base_2028q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
base_2028q4_advance_flow
2028Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
base_2028q4_gross_wc
2028Q4 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
base_2028q4_payables
2028Q4 / base60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
base_2028q4_working_sources
2028Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_payables, base_2028q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
base_2028q4_working_cash
2028Q4 / base80.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_gross_wc, base_2028q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
base_2028q4_interest_income
2028Q4 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
base_2028q4_cash_profit
2028Q4 / base288.18
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_adj_ebitda, base_2028q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
base_2028q4_cash_interest
2028Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
base_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / base76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
base_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / base170.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_cash_adjustments, base_2028q4_cash_interest, base_2028q4_cash_tax, base_2028q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / base118.18
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_profit, base_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / base93.18
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
base_2028q4_tra_cash
2028Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
base_2028q4_owner_distributions
2028Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
base_2028q4_owner_claims
2028Q4 / base31.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_tra_cash, base_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
base_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / base62.18
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_fcf, base_2028q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
base_2028q4_bookings
2028Q4 / base1,350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
base_2028q4_cancellations
2028Q4 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
base_2028q4_available_backlog
2028Q4 / base6,748.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_ending_backlog, base_2028q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
base_2028q4_backlog_consumption
2028Q4 / base1,198.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
base_2028q4_ending_backlog
2028Q4 / base5,550.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_available_backlog, base_2028q4_backlog_consumption).
Total revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base2,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
base_fy2027_custom
FY2027 / base1,440.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_custom, base_2027q2_custom, base_2027q3_custom, base_2027q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
base_fy2027_powertrain
FY2027 / base950.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_powertrain, base_2027q2_powertrain, base_2027q3_powertrain, base_2027q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
base_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / base600.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base489.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base226.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base87.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base139.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
base_fy2027_tra_cash
FY2027 / base23.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_tra_cash, base_2027q2_tra_cash, base_2027q3_tra_cash, base_2027q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
base_fy2027_owner_distributions
FY2027 / base22.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_owner_distributions, base_2027q2_owner_distributions, base_2027q3_owner_distributions, base_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base94.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Total revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / base4,050.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
base_fy2028_custom
FY2028 / base2,120.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_custom, base_2028q2_custom, base_2028q3_custom, base_2028q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
base_fy2028_powertrain
FY2028 / base1,790.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_powertrain, base_2028q2_powertrain, base_2028q3_powertrain, base_2028q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
base_fy2028_other_revenue
FY2028 / base140.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_other_revenue, base_2028q2_other_revenue, base_2028q3_other_revenue, base_2028q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_adj_ebitda
FY2028 / base1,023.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_adj_ebitda, base_2028q2_adj_ebitda, base_2028q3_adj_ebitda, base_2028q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / base890.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / base408.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / base85.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_capex, base_2028q2_capex, base_2028q3_capex, base_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / base323.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
base_fy2028_tra_cash
FY2028 / base65.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_tra_cash, base_2028q2_tra_cash, base_2028q3_tra_cash, base_2028q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
base_fy2028_owner_distributions
FY2028 / base38.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_owner_distributions, base_2028q2_owner_distributions, base_2028q3_owner_distributions, base_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / base220.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_claims, base_2028q2_cash_after_claims, base_2028q3_cash_after_claims, base_2028q4_cash_after_claims).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2027q1_custom_activity
2027Q1 / upside315.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2027q1_custom_realization
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2027q1_custom
2027Q1 / upside315.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_custom_activity, upside_2027q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2027q1_pts_activity
2027Q1 / upside165.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2027q1_pts_realization
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2027q1_powertrain
2027Q1 / upside165.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pts_activity, upside_2027q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / upside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside506.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_custom, upside_2027q1_powertrain, upside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / upside189.75
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / upside72.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside116.95
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_gross, upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside26.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside90.95
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2027q1_advance_flow
2027Q1 / upside40.25
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2027q1_gross_wc
2027Q1 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2027q1_payables
2027Q1 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2027q1_working_sources
2027Q1 / upside70.25
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_payables, upside_2027q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q1_working_cash
2027Q1 / upside29.75
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_wc, upside_2027q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2027q1_cash_profit
2027Q1 / upside117.65
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside64.75
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q1_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside52.90
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_profit, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside24.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside28.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2027q1_tra_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2027q1_owner_distributions
2027Q1 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2027q1_owner_claims
2027Q1 / upside4.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_tra_cash, upside_2027q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside24.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2027q1_bookings
2027Q1 / upside1,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2027q1_cancellations
2027Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2027q1_available_backlog
2027Q1 / upside4,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(backlog, upside_2027q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2027q1_backlog_consumption
2027Q1 / upside526.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2027q1_ending_backlog
2027Q1 / upside3,674.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_available_backlog, upside_2027q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2027q2_custom_activity
2027Q2 / upside355.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2027q2_custom_realization
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2027q2_custom
2027Q2 / upside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_custom_activity, upside_2027q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2027q2_pts_activity
2027Q2 / upside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2027q2_pts_realization
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2027q2_powertrain
2027Q2 / upside220.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pts_activity, upside_2027q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside603.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_custom, upside_2027q2_powertrain, upside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / upside226.12
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / upside73.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside152.53
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_gross, upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside5.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside27.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside125.03
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2027q2_advance_flow
2027Q2 / upside51.75
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2027q2_gross_wc
2027Q2 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2027q2_payables
2027Q2 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2027q2_working_sources
2027Q2 / upside86.75
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_payables, upside_2027q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q2_working_cash
2027Q2 / upside33.25
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_wc, upside_2027q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2027q2_cash_profit
2027Q2 / upside153.22
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside76.25
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q2_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside76.97
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_profit, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside27.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside49.47
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2027q2_tra_cash
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2027q2_owner_distributions
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2027q2_owner_claims
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_tra_cash, upside_2027q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside39.47
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2027q2_bookings
2027Q2 / upside1,250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2027q2_cancellations
2027Q2 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2027q2_available_backlog
2027Q2 / upside4,924.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ending_backlog, upside_2027q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2027q2_backlog_consumption
2027Q2 / upside628.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2027q2_ending_backlog
2027Q2 / upside4,296.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_available_backlog, upside_2027q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2027q3_custom_activity
2027Q3 / upside400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2027q3_custom_realization
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2027q3_custom
2027Q3 / upside400.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_custom_activity, upside_2027q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2027q3_pts_activity
2027Q3 / upside290.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2027q3_pts_realization
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2027q3_powertrain
2027Q3 / upside290.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pts_activity, upside_2027q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside720.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_custom, upside_2027q3_powertrain, upside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / upside270.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / upside79.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside190.80
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_gross, upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside162.80
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2027q3_advance_flow
2027Q3 / upside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2027q3_gross_wc
2027Q3 / upside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2027q3_payables
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2027q3_working_sources
2027Q3 / upside86.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_payables, upside_2027q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q3_working_cash
2027Q3 / upside49.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_wc, upside_2027q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2027q3_cash_profit
2027Q3 / upside191.50
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside99.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q3_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside92.50
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_profit, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside27.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2027q3_tra_cash
2027Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2027q3_owner_distributions
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2027q3_owner_claims
2027Q3 / upside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_tra_cash, upside_2027q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside51.00
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2027q3_bookings
2027Q3 / upside1,300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2027q3_cancellations
2027Q3 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2027q3_available_backlog
2027Q3 / upside5,596.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_ending_backlog, upside_2027q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2027q3_backlog_consumption
2027Q3 / upside750.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2027q3_ending_backlog
2027Q3 / upside4,846.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_available_backlog, upside_2027q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2027q4_custom_activity
2027Q4 / upside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2027q4_custom_realization
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2027q4_custom
2027Q4 / upside450.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_custom_activity, upside_2027q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2027q4_pts_activity
2027Q4 / upside360.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2027q4_pts_realization
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2027q4_powertrain
2027Q4 / upside360.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pts_activity, upside_2027q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / upside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside842.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_custom, upside_2027q4_powertrain, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / upside315.75
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / upside74.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside241.35
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_gross, upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside29.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside211.85
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2027q4_advance_flow
2027Q4 / upside40.25
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2027q4_gross_wc
2027Q4 / upside145.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2027q4_payables
2027Q4 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2027q4_working_sources
2027Q4 / upside90.25
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_payables, upside_2027q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q4_working_cash
2027Q4 / upside54.75
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_wc, upside_2027q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2027q4_cash_profit
2027Q4 / upside242.05
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside112.75
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q4_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside129.30
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_profit, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside16.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside112.80
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2027q4_tra_cash
2027Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2027q4_owner_distributions
2027Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2027q4_owner_claims
2027Q4 / upside17.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_tra_cash, upside_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside95.80
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2027q4_bookings
2027Q4 / upside1,350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2027q4_cancellations
2027Q4 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2027q4_available_backlog
2027Q4 / upside6,196.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_ending_backlog, upside_2027q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2027q4_backlog_consumption
2027Q4 / upside877.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2027q4_ending_backlog
2027Q4 / upside5,319.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_available_backlog, upside_2027q4_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2028q1_custom_activity
2028Q1 / upside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2028q1_custom_realization
2028Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2028q1_custom
2028Q1 / upside500.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_custom_activity, upside_2028q1_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2028q1_pts_activity
2028Q1 / upside425.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2028q1_pts_realization
2028Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2028q1_powertrain
2028Q1 / upside425.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_pts_activity, upside_2028q1_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2028q1_other_revenue
2028Q1 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / upside960.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_custom, upside_2028q1_powertrain, upside_2028q1_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2028q1_gross_margin
2028Q1 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2028q1_cash_gross
2028Q1 / upside360.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2028q1_adjusted_opex
2028Q1 / upside95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2028q1_adj_ebitda
2028Q1 / upside265.00
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_gross, upside_2028q1_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2028q1_cash_adjustments
2028Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2028q1_gaap_adjustments
2028Q1 / upside31.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_da, upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / upside234.00
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q1_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2028q1_advance_flow
2028Q1 / upside34.50
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2028q1_gross_wc
2028Q1 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2028q1_payables
2028Q1 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2028q1_working_sources
2028Q1 / upside79.50
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_payables, upside_2028q1_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2028q1_working_cash
2028Q1 / upside70.50
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_gross_wc, upside_2028q1_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2028q1_interest_income
2028Q1 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2028q1_cash_profit
2028Q1 / upside265.70
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q1_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2028q1_cash_interest
2028Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / upside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / upside136.50
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_adjustments, upside_2028q1_cash_interest, upside_2028q1_cash_tax, upside_2028q1_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / upside129.20
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_profit, upside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / upside19.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / upside109.40
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2028q1_tra_cash
2028Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2028q1_owner_distributions
2028Q1 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2028q1_owner_claims
2028Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_tra_cash, upside_2028q1_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / upside89.40
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q1_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2028q1_bookings
2028Q1 / upside1,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2028q1_cancellations
2028Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2028q1_available_backlog
2028Q1 / upside6,719.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_ending_backlog, upside_2028q1_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2028q1_backlog_consumption
2028Q1 / upside1,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2028q1_ending_backlog
2028Q1 / upside5,719.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_available_backlog, upside_2028q1_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2028q2_custom_activity
2028Q2 / upside550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2028q2_custom_realization
2028Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2028q2_custom
2028Q2 / upside550.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_custom_activity, upside_2028q2_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2028q2_pts_activity
2028Q2 / upside490.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2028q2_pts_realization
2028Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2028q2_powertrain
2028Q2 / upside490.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_pts_activity, upside_2028q2_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2028q2_other_revenue
2028Q2 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / upside1,078.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_custom, upside_2028q2_powertrain, upside_2028q2_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2028q2_gross_margin
2028Q2 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2028q2_cash_gross
2028Q2 / upside404.25
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2028q2_adjusted_opex
2028Q2 / upside104.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2028q2_adj_ebitda
2028Q2 / upside300.25
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_gross, upside_2028q2_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / upside7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2028q2_cash_adjustments
2028Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2028q2_gaap_adjustments
2028Q2 / upside32.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_da, upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / upside267.75
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q2_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2028q2_advance_flow
2028Q2 / upside40.25
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2028q2_gross_wc
2028Q2 / upside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2028q2_payables
2028Q2 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2028q2_working_sources
2028Q2 / upside90.25
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_payables, upside_2028q2_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2028q2_working_cash
2028Q2 / upside69.75
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_gross_wc, upside_2028q2_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2028q2_interest_income
2028Q2 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2028q2_cash_profit
2028Q2 / upside300.95
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q2_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2028q2_cash_interest
2028Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / upside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / upside143.75
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_cash_adjustments, upside_2028q2_cash_interest, upside_2028q2_cash_tax, upside_2028q2_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / upside157.20
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_profit, upside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / upside135.20
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2028q2_tra_cash
2028Q2 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2028q2_owner_distributions
2028Q2 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2028q2_owner_claims
2028Q2 / upside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_tra_cash, upside_2028q2_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / upside111.20
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q2_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2028q2_bookings
2028Q2 / upside1,450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2028q2_cancellations
2028Q2 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2028q2_available_backlog
2028Q2 / upside7,169.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_ending_backlog, upside_2028q2_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2028q2_backlog_consumption
2028Q2 / upside1,123.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2028q2_ending_backlog
2028Q2 / upside6,046.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_available_backlog, upside_2028q2_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2028q3_custom_activity
2028Q3 / upside600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2028q3_custom_realization
2028Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2028q3_custom
2028Q3 / upside600.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_custom_activity, upside_2028q3_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2028q3_pts_activity
2028Q3 / upside560.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2028q3_pts_realization
2028Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2028q3_powertrain
2028Q3 / upside560.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_pts_activity, upside_2028q3_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2028q3_other_revenue
2028Q3 / upside41.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / upside1,201.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_custom, upside_2028q3_powertrain, upside_2028q3_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2028q3_gross_margin
2028Q3 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2028q3_cash_gross
2028Q3 / upside450.38
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2028q3_adjusted_opex
2028Q3 / upside112.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2028q3_adj_ebitda
2028Q3 / upside338.38
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_gross, upside_2028q3_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / upside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2028q3_cash_adjustments
2028Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2028q3_gaap_adjustments
2028Q3 / upside34.00
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_da, upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / upside304.38
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q3_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2028q3_advance_flow
2028Q3 / upside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2028q3_gross_wc
2028Q3 / upside170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2028q3_payables
2028Q3 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2028q3_working_sources
2028Q3 / upside101.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_payables, upside_2028q3_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2028q3_working_cash
2028Q3 / upside69.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_gross_wc, upside_2028q3_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2028q3_interest_income
2028Q3 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2028q3_cash_profit
2028Q3 / upside339.07
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q3_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2028q3_cash_interest
2028Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / upside68.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / upside151.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_cash_adjustments, upside_2028q3_cash_interest, upside_2028q3_cash_tax, upside_2028q3_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / upside188.07
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_profit, upside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / upside24.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / upside163.88
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2028q3_tra_cash
2028Q3 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2028q3_owner_distributions
2028Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2028q3_owner_claims
2028Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_tra_cash, upside_2028q3_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / upside135.88
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q3_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2028q3_bookings
2028Q3 / upside1,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2028q3_cancellations
2028Q3 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2028q3_available_backlog
2028Q3 / upside7,546.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_ending_backlog, upside_2028q3_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2028q3_backlog_consumption
2028Q3 / upside1,251.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2028q3_ending_backlog
2028Q3 / upside6,295.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_available_backlog, upside_2028q3_backlog_consumption).
Custom accepted-work reference
upside_2028q4_custom_activity
2028Q4 / upside650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom price and progress realization
upside_2028q4_custom_realization
2028Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Custom products revenue
upside_2028q4_custom
2028Q4 / upside650.00
USD_millions
derived: Progress recognition can precede final equipment delivery. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_custom_activity, upside_2028q4_custom_realization).
Powertrain accepted-work reference
upside_2028q4_pts_activity
2028Q4 / upside630.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain realization
upside_2028q4_pts_realization
2028Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Powertrain solutions revenue
upside_2028q4_powertrain
2028Q4 / upside630.00
USD_millions
derived: Capacity alone does not create sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_pts_activity, upside_2028q4_pts_realization).
Standard products and services
upside_2028q4_other_revenue
2028Q4 / upside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total revenue
upside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / upside1,324.00
USD_millions
derived: Three distinct offering buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_custom, upside_2028q4_powertrain, upside_2028q4_other_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A margin
upside_2028q4_gross_margin
2028Q4 / upside37.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross contribution before D&A
upside_2028q4_cash_gross
2028Q4 / upside496.50
USD_millions
derived: Cash-contribution proxy; reported COGS includes some depreciation. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_gross_margin).
Adjusted operating cost budget
upside_2028q4_adjusted_opex
2028Q4 / upside124.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2028q4_adj_ebitda
2028Q4 / upside372.50
USD_millions
derived: Base annual $600M calibrated to guidance; quarter allocation is a scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_gross, upside_2028q4_adjusted_opex).
D&A
upside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC
upside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / upside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjusted-metric exclusions
upside_2028q4_cash_adjustments
2028Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A SBC and adjusted cash expenses
upside_2028q4_gaap_adjustments
2028Q4 / upside35.50
USD_millions
derived: No additional COGS depreciation deducted twice. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_da, upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / upside337.00
USD_millions
derived: No future fair-value or nonoperating mark assumption. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q4_gaap_adjustments).
Net customer advances
upside_2028q4_advance_flow
2028Q4 / upside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash timing and performance liability; independent of current revenue recognition.
Inventory receivables and other cash investment
upside_2028q4_gross_wc
2028Q4 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payable/accrual cash inflow
upside_2028q4_payables
2028Q4 / upside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payables and customer advance cash
upside_2028q4_working_sources
2028Q4 / upside106.00
USD_millions
derived: These are liabilities and settlement timing, not new earnings. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_payables, upside_2028q4_advance_flow).
Net working-capital cash use
upside_2028q4_working_cash
2028Q4 / upside74.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross receivables and inventories remain visible before funding from customers/vendors. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_gross_wc, upside_2028q4_working_sources).
Cash investment interest
upside_2028q4_interest_income
2028Q4 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA and interest income
upside_2028q4_cash_profit
2028Q4 / upside373.20
USD_millions
derived: Small corporate interest allowance. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q4_interest_income).
Cash interest
upside_2028q4_cash_interest
2028Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash tax
upside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / upside76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs taxes interest and working capital
upside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / upside164.00
USD_millions
derived: TRA cash is deducted separately after FCF for comparison; actual statement classification may differ. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_cash_adjustments, upside_2028q4_cash_interest, upside_2028q4_cash_tax, upside_2028q4_working_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / upside209.20
USD_millions
derived: No automatic IPO financing inflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_profit, upside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / upside27.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / upside181.70
USD_millions
derived: Before TRA and non-controlling owner distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex).
TRA payment sensitivity
upside_2028q4_tra_cash
2028Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Outside Opco owner cash distribution
upside_2028q4_owner_distributions
2028Q4 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
TRA and outside-owner cash
upside_2028q4_owner_claims
2028Q4 / upside31.00
USD_millions
derived: Tax-sharing and minority-owner claims are not dividends available to public holders. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_tra_cash, upside_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after selected ownership claims
upside_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / upside150.70
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes debt principal and discretionary capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_fcf, upside_2028q4_owner_claims).
New booked orders
upside_2028q4_bookings
2028Q4 / upside1,550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Backlog cancellations and scope reductions
upside_2028q4_cancellations
2028Q4 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Opening backlog plus bookings
upside_2028q4_available_backlog
2028Q4 / upside7,845.00
USD_millions
derived: Forward orders may be cancelled. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_ending_backlog, upside_2028q4_bookings).
Revenue conversion and cancellation
upside_2028q4_backlog_consumption
2028Q4 / upside1,379.00
USD_millions
derived: Illustrative stock bridge; no FX/acquisition adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_cancellations).
Ending backlog stock
upside_2028q4_ending_backlog
2028Q4 / upside6,466.00
USD_millions
derived: Never summed as an annual revenue flow. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_available_backlog, upside_2028q4_backlog_consumption).
Total revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside2,671.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
upside_fy2027_custom
FY2027 / upside1,520.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_custom, upside_2027q2_custom, upside_2027q3_custom, upside_2027q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
upside_fy2027_powertrain
FY2027 / upside1,035.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_powertrain, upside_2027q2_powertrain, upside_2027q3_powertrain, upside_2027q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
upside_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / upside116.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / upside701.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside590.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside351.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside95.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside255.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_tra_cash
FY2027 / upside23.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_tra_cash, upside_2027q2_tra_cash, upside_2027q3_tra_cash, upside_2027q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
upside_fy2027_owner_distributions
FY2027 / upside22.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_owner_distributions, upside_2027q2_owner_distributions, upside_2027q3_owner_distributions, upside_2027q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside210.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Total revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / upside4,563.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue).
Custom products ($M)
upside_fy2028_custom
FY2028 / upside2,300.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_custom, upside_2028q2_custom, upside_2028q3_custom, upside_2028q4_custom).
Powertrain solutions ($M)
upside_fy2028_powertrain
FY2028 / upside2,105.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_powertrain, upside_2028q2_powertrain, upside_2028q3_powertrain, upside_2028q4_powertrain).
Standard products and services ($M)
upside_fy2028_other_revenue
FY2028 / upside158.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_other_revenue, upside_2028q2_other_revenue, upside_2028q3_other_revenue, upside_2028q4_other_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_adj_ebitda
FY2028 / upside1,276.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2028q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / upside1,143.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / upside683.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / upside93.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_capex, upside_2028q2_capex, upside_2028q3_capex, upside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / upside590.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q4_fcf).
TRA cash payments ($M)
upside_fy2028_tra_cash
FY2028 / upside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_tra_cash, upside_2028q2_tra_cash, upside_2028q3_tra_cash, upside_2028q4_tra_cash).
Outside-owner distributions ($M)
upside_fy2028_owner_distributions
FY2028 / upside38.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_owner_distributions, upside_2028q2_owner_distributions, upside_2028q3_owner_distributions, upside_2028q4_owner_distributions).
Cash after TRA and outside-owner claims ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / upside487.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

Backlog growth through the factory and ownership cash waterfall

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can record electrical-equipment orders convert into profitable production and cash after expansion and outside-owner claims?

FY2026 revenue was $1.420B and adjusted EBITDA $322.9M. CFO $109.1M included $153.0M customer-advance inflow, while cash PP&E $115.9M left negative $6.8M FCF. Q4 revenue $461.7M and EBITDA $112.7M accompanied $3.0B rounded backlog. September FY2027 guidance targets $2.4-2.6B revenue and $575-625M EBITDA, with about $87M capex. The $35M additional powertrain expansion targets Q4 FY2027 availability and raises nameplate revenue capacity to about $5.8B. June cash was $97.5M plus $24.2M restricted. The $1.525B combined IPO/follow-on net-underwriting proceeds were offset by purchases of existing owners' Opco interests. TRA liability was $338.9M under an 85% tax-benefit sharing arrangement.

The competing explanation

Orders can move or cancel, and rising inventory and receivables can exceed customer funding. Headline EBITDA excludes real cash costs while TRA payments and outside-owner distributions further separate consolidated performance from public-owner cash.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Added backlog conversion, secondary-offering offsets, TRA sensitivities and corrected fiscal history.

What the memory says

No comparison for FPS: No built market state is available for FPS.

Notes on this name

Scorecard: 1 note scored

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/fps-backlog-conversion-sponsor-supply-20260915): First: today's completed session, September 15, the first observation after the release; we will record the close, volume and the open-to-close move separately from the overnight

Provenance

  1. [1] derived: Six-month revenue less directly reported Q2; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000011/fps-20251231.htm
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  4. [4] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  7. [7] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  8. [8] derived: Six-month operating income less Q2; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000011/fps-20251231.htm
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  10. [10] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  11. [11] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  12. [12] reported: Direct Q4 operating income; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm
  13. [13] derived: Attributable six-month income less Q2; not consolidated before NCI; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000011/fps-20251231.htm
  14. [14] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  16. [16] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  17. [17] reported: Direct Q4 income attributable to company; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm
  18. [18] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  21. [21] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  22. [22] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002080126-26-000011, 10-Q filed 2026-03-16; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  23. [23] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  24. [24] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  25. [25] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  26. [26] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  27. [27] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  28. [28] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json; filed 2026-05-14] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json; filed 2026-05-14], accession 0002080126-26-000018, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json
  29. [29] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json; filed 2026-09-15] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json; filed 2026-09-15], accession 0002080126-26-000035, 10-K filed 2026-09-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:34:13+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002080126.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-20T00:34:13.032245+00:00 · authored a3aa885920d2 · generated c457d1a95b6c · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard