$ENVA
Business
Enova originates consumer and small-business credit. It earns interest and fees, absorbs credit and fair-value changes, and finances loan assets with securitizations, facilities and corporate debt. Loan growth requires cash principal funding beyond ordinary software and fixed-asset investment.
Three drivers
- Consumer and small-business earning assets and revenue yields
- Credit/fair-value expense, acquisition costs and debt funding rates
- Cash loan investment, covenants and repurchases
Thesis
Our view
Growth and credit margins must be evaluated alongside the cash required to replenish and expand the loan book. The bank acquisition is excluded after September regulatory-application withdrawals.
What changes it
Compare credit-cost ratios and collections with funded debt, cash loan investment and covenant headroom; rising CFO alone is not owner cash generation.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 689.91 | 729.6†2 | 745.53 | 764.04 | 802.71 | 839.4†2 | 875.13 | 928.94 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 400.45 | 413.0†6 | 426.27 | 441.58 | 460.75 | 501.9†6 | 529.07 | 568.18 |
| Operating income ($M) | 153.79 | 155.2†10 | 171.911 | 184.112 | 196.89 | 186.6†10 | 207.111 | 237.112 |
| Net income ($M) | 43.413 | 63.7†14 | 72.915 | 76.116 | 80.313 | 79.0†14 | 91.115 | 105.116 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | 1.5717 | — | 2.6918 | 2.8619 | 3.0317 | — | 3.4618 | 4.0019 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 27.720 | — | 27.121 | 26.622 | 26.520 | — | 26.321 | 26.322 |
| Cash ($M) | 67.523 | 73.924 | 55.525 | 55.626 | 53.623 | 71.726 | 96.125 | 122.226 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 3,293.727 | 3,563.528 | 3,757.429 | 3,963.530 | 4,106.527 | 4,498.430 | 4,832.529 | 5,013.930 |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 398.6†31 | 430.5†32 | 391.133 | 447.4†34 | 481.8†31 | 498.8†32 | 474.533 | 544.0†34 |
| Capex ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 1,003.3 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 1,053.4 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 1,090.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 1,145.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Credit revenue and fair-value margins versus portfolio cash funding
Drive consumer and small-business revenue from Q2 activity indices and revenue-yield factors. Deduct product-specific fair-value expense, marketing and operating costs, then corporate and funding interest. Cash flow adds noncash credit/fair-value expense back before separately subtracting cash loan originations less principal repayments. This avoids treating the reported lending-company CFO as cash available to owners. Base FY2026 revenue matches the midpoint of September-reaffirmed 20-25% growth guidance and Q3 matches approximately 25% growth; earnings, cash and FY2027 are desk sensitivities.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 reported revenue | FY2025 | 3,151.65 | reported. Sum of four reviewed SEC-derived quarters; annual revenue baseline for management percentage guidance. Source · 2026-02-20 |
| FY2026 revenue range low | FY2026 | 3,781.98 | derived. Reported annual baseline times management growth range. |
| FY2026 revenue range high | FY2026 | 3,939.57 | derived. Reported annual baseline times management growth range. |
| H1 net revenue | H1 2026 | 1,097.03 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 cfo | H1 2026 | 1,018.57 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 cash originations | H1 2026 | 4,292.88 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 principal receipts | H1 2026 | 2,904.91 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 net cash loan investment | H1 2026 | 1,387.97 | derived. Cash originations exclude noncash renewals; principal receipts exclude interest collections. |
| H1 cash after capex and loan investment | H1 2026 | -392.76 | derived. Not CFO less only industrial capex. |
| H1 cash after lending and repurchases | H1 2026 | -452.13 | derived. Before new borrowing, debt repayment, financing fees and equity receipts. |
| cash | June 2026 / comparison | 122.23 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| restricted cash | June 2026 / comparison | 342.99 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| loan principal | June 2026 / comparison | 5,351.09 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| loan fair value | June 2026 / comparison | 6,172.76 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| funding debt | June 2026 / comparison | 3,556.04 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| corporate debt | June 2026 / comparison | 1,479.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| board buyback | June 2026 / comparison | 349.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
| covenant buyback | June 2026 / comparison | 218.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-23 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash before loan investment ($M) | Cash fixed assets and software ($M) | Pretax earnings proxy ($M) | Total revenue ($M) | Share repurchase cash ($M) | Net funding/corporate interest ($M) | Fair-value expense ($M) | Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) | Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) | Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 475.33 | 13.00 | 54.86 | 955.00 | 50.00 | 112.63 | 430.64 | 524.36 | 720.00 | 167.49 | -307.67 | -257.67 |
| 2026Q4 | 486.74 | 14.00 | 55.09 | 985.00 | 50.00 | 115.81 | 443.17 | 541.83 | 700.00 | 170.91 | -277.26 | -227.26 |
| 2027Q1 | 474.56 | 15.00 | 45.01 | 980.00 | 35.00 | 117.94 | 439.95 | 540.05 | 590.00 | 162.95 | -165.44 | -130.44 |
| 2027Q2 | 493.03 | 16.00 | 48.10 | 1,020.00 | 35.00 | 121.13 | 457.38 | 562.62 | 650.00 | 169.22 | -207.97 | -172.97 |
| FY2026 | 1,980.65 | 50.36 | 362.92 | 3,744.07 | 159.37 | 420.30 | 1,580.85 | 2,163.22 | 2,807.97 | 782.64 | -1,037.06 | -877.69 |
| FY2027 | 2,014.69 | 66.00 | 198.57 | 4,170.00 | 140.00 | 493.00 | 1,869.98 | 2,300.02 | 2,800.00 | 691.57 | -991.31 | -851.31 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash before loan investment ($M) | Cash fixed assets and software ($M) | Pretax earnings proxy ($M) | Total revenue ($M) | Share repurchase cash ($M) | Net funding/corporate interest ($M) | Fair-value expense ($M) | Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) | Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) | Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 509.85 | 13.00 | 143.38 | 1,003.35 | 50.00 | 103.35 | 397.88 | 605.47 | 700.00 | 246.73 | -253.15 | -203.15 |
| 2026Q4 | 534.03 | 14.00 | 151.07 | 1,053.36 | 50.00 | 107.74 | 417.52 | 635.84 | 760.00 | 258.80 | -289.97 | -239.97 |
| 2027Q1 | 548.85 | 15.00 | 154.25 | 1,090.00 | 35.00 | 112.12 | 431.23 | 658.77 | 700.00 | 266.37 | -201.15 | -166.15 |
| 2027Q2 | 576.06 | 16.00 | 163.52 | 1,145.00 | 35.00 | 117.00 | 452.69 | 692.32 | 750.00 | 280.52 | -224.94 | -189.94 |
| FY2026 | 2,062.45 | 50.36 | 547.42 | 3,860.77 | 159.37 | 402.95 | 1,522.44 | 2,338.34 | 2,847.97 | 949.79 | -995.26 | -835.89 |
| FY2027 | 2,400.60 | 66.00 | 694.75 | 4,755.00 | 140.00 | 481.16 | 1,878.78 | 2,876.22 | 3,090.00 | 1,175.92 | -895.40 | -755.40 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash before loan investment ($M) | Cash fixed assets and software ($M) | Pretax earnings proxy ($M) | Total revenue ($M) | Share repurchase cash ($M) | Net funding/corporate interest ($M) | Fair-value expense ($M) | Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) | Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) | Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 535.04 | 13.00 | 195.06 | 1,040.00 | 50.00 | 98.55 | 383.79 | 656.21 | 720.00 | 293.61 | -247.96 | -197.96 |
| 2026Q4 | 571.62 | 14.00 | 211.03 | 1,110.00 | 50.00 | 104.48 | 409.53 | 700.47 | 780.00 | 315.52 | -272.38 | -222.38 |
| 2027Q1 | 614.10 | 15.00 | 231.35 | 1,190.00 | 35.00 | 111.32 | 437.88 | 752.12 | 770.00 | 342.67 | -205.90 | -170.90 |
| 2027Q2 | 662.84 | 16.00 | 254.50 | 1,280.00 | 35.00 | 119.08 | 470.32 | 809.68 | 840.00 | 373.58 | -228.16 | -193.16 |
| FY2026 | 2,125.23 | 50.36 | 659.06 | 3,954.07 | 159.37 | 394.90 | 1,500.37 | 2,453.70 | 2,887.97 | 1,053.37 | -972.48 | -813.11 |
| FY2027 | 2,801.70 | 66.00 | 1,096.17 | 5,380.00 | 140.00 | 494.12 | 1,974.82 | 3,405.19 | 3,500.00 | 1,590.28 | -904.30 | -764.30 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 1,804.07 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 credit cost h1_credit_cost | H1 2026 / shared | 707.04 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 net revenue h1_net_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 1,097.03 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | 444.25 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 interest h1_interest | H1 2026 / shared | 191.86 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 pretax h1_pretax | H1 2026 / shared | 252.97 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | 1,018.57 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 23.36 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 buybacks h1_buybacks | H1 2026 / shared | 59.37 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 cash originations h1_cash_originations | H1 2026 / shared | 4,292.88 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 principal receipts h1_principal_receipts | H1 2026 / shared | 2,904.91 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 noncash fv h1_noncash_fv | H1 2026 / shared | 703.09 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 sbc h1_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 17.46 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 da h1_da | H1 2026 / shared | 17.33 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 consumer revenue h1_consumer_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 923.23 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 business revenue h1_business_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 856.77 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 other revenue h1_other_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 24.07 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 noncash renewals h1_noncash_renewals | H1 2026 / shared | 262.93 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 rollforward repayments h1_rollforward_repayments | H1 2026 / shared | 4,934.91 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| H1 net cash loan investment h1_loan_investment | H1 2026 / shared | 1,387.97 USD_millions | derived: Cash originations exclude noncash renewals; principal receipts exclude interest collections. Formula: subtract(h1_cash_originations, h1_principal_receipts). |
| Cash asset and loan investment h1_investment | H1 2026 / shared | 1,411.34 USD_millions | derived: Investment cash uses beyond reported CFO. Formula: sum(h1_capex, h1_loan_investment). |
| H1 cash after capex and loan investment h1_cash_after_lending | H1 2026 / shared | -392.76 USD_millions | derived: Not CFO less only industrial capex. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_investment). |
| H1 cash after lending and repurchases h1_cash_after_claims | H1 2026 / shared | -452.13 USD_millions | derived: Before new borrowing, debt repayment, financing fees and equity receipts. Formula: subtract(h1_cash_after_lending, h1_buybacks). |
| q2 consumer q2_consumer | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 477.42 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| q2 business q2_business | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 439.27 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| q2 other q2_other | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 12.24 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| cash cash | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 122.23 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| restricted cash restricted_cash | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 342.99 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| loan principal loan_principal | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 5,351.09 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| loan fair value loan_fair_value | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 6,172.76 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| funding debt funding_debt | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 3,556.04 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| corporate debt corporate_debt | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 1,479.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| board buyback board_buyback | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 349.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| covenant buyback covenant_buyback | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 218.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| q3 2025 revenue q3_2025_revenue | June 2026 / comparison / shared | 802.68 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-23 |
| FY2025 reported revenue fy25_revenue | FY2025 / shared | 3,151.65 USD_millions | reported: Sum of four reviewed SEC-derived quarters; annual revenue baseline for management percentage guidance. Primary source · 2026-02-20 |
| FY2026 revenue growth low fy26_growth_low | FY2026 / shared | 120.0% ratio | management guidance: September 14 reaffirmed 20-25% year-over-year growth outlook. Primary source · 2026-09-14 |
| FY2026 revenue growth high fy26_growth_high | FY2026 / shared | 125.0% ratio | management guidance: September 14 reaffirmed outlook. Primary source · 2026-09-14 |
| FY2026 revenue range low fy26_revenue_low | FY2026 / shared | 3,781.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported annual baseline times management growth range. Formula: multiply(fy25_revenue, fy26_growth_low). |
| FY2026 revenue range high fy26_revenue_high | FY2026 / shared | 3,939.57 USD_millions | derived: Reported annual baseline times management growth range. Formula: multiply(fy25_revenue, fy26_growth_high). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2026q3_consumer_activity | 2026Q3 / downside | 104.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2026q3_consumer_yield | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2026q3_consumer_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 500.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2026q3_consumer_activity, downside_2026q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2026q3_business_activity | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2026q3_business_yield | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2026q3_business_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 442.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2026q3_business_activity, downside_2026q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 955.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_consumer_revenue, downside_2026q3_business_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 245.00 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_consumer_revenue, downside_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2026q3_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2026q3_business_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 185.64 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_business_revenue, downside_2026q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2026q3_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 430.64 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2026q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2026q3_net_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 524.36 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2026q3_marketing_ratio | 2026Q3 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2026q3_marketing | 2026Q3 / downside | 214.88 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2026q3_operations | 2026Q3 / downside | 84.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / downside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / downside | 356.88 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_marketing, downside_2026q3_operations, downside_2026q3_ga, downside_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 167.49 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_net_revenue, downside_2026q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2026q3_average_debt | 2026Q3 / downside | 5,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2026q3_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2026q3_interest | 2026Q3 / downside | 112.63 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_average_debt, downside_2026q3_annual_interest_rate, downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / downside | 54.86 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 13.17 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_pretax, downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2026q3_noncash_bridge | 2026Q3 / downside | 503.50 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_pretax, downside_2026q3_credit_cost, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 28.17 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | 475.33 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_noncash_bridge, downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2026q3_cash_originations | 2026Q3 / downside | 2,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2026q3_principal_receipts | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,580.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2026q3_loan_investment | 2026Q3 / downside | 720.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_originations, downside_2026q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2026q3_cash_investment | 2026Q3 / downside | 733.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2026q3_cash_after_lending | 2026Q3 / downside | -257.67 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / downside | -307.67 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_after_lending, downside_2026q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2026q4_consumer_activity | 2026Q4 / downside | 105.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2026q4_consumer_yield | 2026Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2026q4_consumer_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 505.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2026q4_consumer_activity, downside_2026q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2026q4_business_activity | 2026Q4 / downside | 106.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2026q4_business_yield | 2026Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2026q4_business_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 466.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2026q4_business_activity, downside_2026q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 985.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_consumer_revenue, downside_2026q4_business_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 247.45 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_consumer_revenue, downside_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2026q4_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2026q4_business_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 195.72 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_business_revenue, downside_2026q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2026q4_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 443.17 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2026q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2026q4_net_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 541.83 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.30 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2026q4_marketing_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2026q4_marketing | 2026Q4 / downside | 221.62 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2026q4_operations | 2026Q4 / downside | 89.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / downside | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / downside | 370.93 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_marketing, downside_2026q4_operations, downside_2026q4_ga, downside_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 170.91 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_net_revenue, downside_2026q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2026q4_average_debt | 2026Q4 / downside | 5,450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2026q4_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / downside | 115.81 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_average_debt, downside_2026q4_annual_interest_rate, downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / downside | 55.09 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.22 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_pretax, downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / downside | 516.96 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_pretax, downside_2026q4_credit_cost, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 30.22 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 486.74 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_noncash_bridge, downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2026q4_cash_originations | 2026Q4 / downside | 2,350.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2026q4_principal_receipts | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2026q4_loan_investment | 2026Q4 / downside | 700.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_originations, downside_2026q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2026q4_cash_investment | 2026Q4 / downside | 714.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_capex, downside_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2026q4_cash_after_lending | 2026Q4 / downside | -227.26 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / downside | -277.26 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_after_lending, downside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q1_consumer_activity | 2027Q1 / downside | 103.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q1_consumer_yield | 2027Q1 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2027q1_consumer_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 495.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2027q1_consumer_activity, downside_2027q1_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q1_business_activity | 2027Q1 / downside | 107.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q1_business_yield | 2027Q1 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2027q1_business_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 470.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2027q1_business_activity, downside_2027q1_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 980.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q1_business_revenue, downside_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 242.55 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q1_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2027q1_business_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 197.40 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_business_revenue, downside_2027q1_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2027q1_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 439.95 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2027q1_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2027q1_net_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 540.05 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2027q1_marketing_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2027q1_marketing | 2027Q1 / downside | 220.50 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2027q1_operations | 2027Q1 / downside | 94.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / downside | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / downside | 377.10 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_marketing, downside_2027q1_operations, downside_2027q1_ga, downside_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 162.95 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_net_revenue, downside_2027q1_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2027q1_average_debt | 2027Q1 / downside | 5,550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2027q1_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / downside | 117.94 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_average_debt, downside_2027q1_annual_interest_rate, downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / downside | 45.01 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.80 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pretax, downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / downside | 504.36 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_pretax, downside_2027q1_credit_cost, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 29.80 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 474.56 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2027q1_cash_originations | 2027Q1 / downside | 2,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2027q1_principal_receipts | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,710.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2027q1_loan_investment | 2027Q1 / downside | 590.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_originations, downside_2027q1_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2027q1_cash_investment | 2027Q1 / downside | 605.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q1_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2027q1_cash_after_lending | 2027Q1 / downside | -130.44 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / downside | -165.44 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q1_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q2_consumer_activity | 2027Q2 / downside | 106.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q2_consumer_yield | 2027Q2 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2027q2_consumer_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 510.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2027q2_consumer_activity, downside_2027q2_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q2_business_activity | 2027Q2 / downside | 112.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q2_business_yield | 2027Q2 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2027q2_business_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 494.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2027q2_business_activity, downside_2027q2_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,020.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q2_business_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 249.90 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q2_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2027q2_business_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 207.48 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_business_revenue, downside_2027q2_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2027q2_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 457.38 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2027q2_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2027q2_net_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 562.62 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 9.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2027q2_marketing_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2027q2_marketing | 2027Q2 / downside | 229.50 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2027q2_operations | 2027Q2 / downside | 99.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / downside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / downside | 393.40 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_marketing, downside_2027q2_operations, downside_2027q2_ga, downside_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 169.22 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_net_revenue, downside_2027q2_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2027q2_average_debt | 2027Q2 / downside | 5,700.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2027q2_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / downside | 121.13 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_average_debt, downside_2027q2_annual_interest_rate, downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / downside | 48.10 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 11.54 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pretax, downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / downside | 525.58 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_pretax, downside_2027q2_credit_cost, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 32.54 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 493.03 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2027q2_cash_originations | 2027Q2 / downside | 2,400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2027q2_principal_receipts | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,750.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2027q2_loan_investment | 2027Q2 / downside | 650.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_originations, downside_2027q2_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2027q2_cash_investment | 2027Q2 / downside | 666.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q2_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2027q2_cash_after_lending | 2027Q2 / downside | -172.97 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / downside | -207.97 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q2_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q3_consumer_activity | 2027Q3 / downside | 113.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q3_consumer_yield | 2027Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2027q3_consumer_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 540.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2027q3_consumer_activity, downside_2027q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q3_business_activity | 2027Q3 / downside | 116.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q3_business_yield | 2027Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2027q3_business_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 513.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2027q3_business_activity, downside_2027q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,070.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q3_business_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 264.60 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q3_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2027q3_business_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 215.46 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_business_revenue, downside_2027q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2027q3_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 480.06 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2027q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2027q3_net_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 589.94 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2027q3_marketing_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2027q3_marketing | 2027Q3 / downside | 240.75 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2027q3_operations | 2027Q3 / downside | 104.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / downside | 57.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / downside | 411.95 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_marketing, downside_2027q3_operations, downside_2027q3_ga, downside_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 177.99 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_net_revenue, downside_2027q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2027q3_average_debt | 2027Q3 / downside | 5,900.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2027q3_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / downside | 125.38 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_average_debt, downside_2027q3_annual_interest_rate, downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / downside | 52.62 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.63 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pretax, downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / downside | 553.48 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_pretax, downside_2027q3_credit_cost, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 35.63 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 517.85 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2027q3_cash_originations | 2027Q3 / downside | 2,600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2027q3_principal_receipts | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,810.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2027q3_loan_investment | 2027Q3 / downside | 790.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_originations, downside_2027q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2027q3_cash_investment | 2027Q3 / downside | 807.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2027q3_cash_after_lending | 2027Q3 / downside | -289.15 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / downside | -324.15 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q4_consumer_activity | 2027Q4 / downside | 114.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q4_consumer_yield | 2027Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue downside_2027q4_consumer_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 545.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, downside_2027q4_consumer_activity, downside_2027q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 downside_2027q4_business_activity | 2027Q4 / downside | 122.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 downside_2027q4_business_yield | 2027Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue downside_2027q4_business_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 537.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, downside_2027q4_business_activity, downside_2027q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue downside_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,100.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q4_business_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 49.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense downside_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 267.05 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_consumer_revenue, downside_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue downside_2027q4_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 42.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense downside_2027q4_business_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 225.54 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_business_revenue, downside_2027q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense downside_2027q4_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 492.59 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost, downside_2027q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense downside_2027q4_net_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 607.41 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 10.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue downside_2027q4_marketing_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 22.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense downside_2027q4_marketing | 2027Q4 / downside | 247.50 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology downside_2027q4_operations | 2027Q4 / downside | 109.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / downside | 59.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense downside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / downside | 426.00 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_marketing, downside_2027q4_operations, downside_2027q4_ga, downside_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 181.41 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_net_revenue, downside_2027q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt downside_2027q4_average_debt | 2027Q4 / downside | 6,050.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees downside_2027q4_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest downside_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / downside | 128.56 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_average_debt, downside_2027q4_annual_interest_rate, downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy downside_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / downside | 52.85 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.68 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pretax, downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses downside_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / downside | 566.94 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_pretax, downside_2027q4_credit_cost, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use downside_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 37.68 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 529.25 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations downside_2027q4_cash_originations | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections downside_2027q4_principal_receipts | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,880.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment downside_2027q4_loan_investment | 2027Q4 / downside | 770.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_originations, downside_2027q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment downside_2027q4_cash_investment | 2027Q4 / downside | 788.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_capex, downside_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment downside_2027q4_cash_after_lending | 2027Q4 / downside | -258.75 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases downside_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / downside | -293.75 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Total revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 3,744.07 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) downside_fy2026_credit_cost | FY2026 / downside | 1,580.85 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_credit_cost, downside_2026q3_credit_cost, downside_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) downside_fy2026_net_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 2,163.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_revenue, downside_2026q3_net_revenue, downside_2026q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 782.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) downside_fy2026_interest | FY2026 / downside | 420.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_interest, downside_2026q3_interest, downside_2026q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_pretax | FY2026 / downside | 362.92 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_pretax, downside_2026q3_pretax, downside_2026q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 1,980.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 50.36 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) downside_fy2026_loan_investment | FY2026 / downside | 2,807.97 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_loan_investment, downside_2026q3_loan_investment, downside_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_lending | FY2026 / downside | -877.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_lending, downside_2026q3_cash_after_lending, downside_2026q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) downside_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / downside | 159.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, downside_2026q3_buybacks, downside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / downside | -1,037.06 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Total revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 4,170.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) downside_fy2027_credit_cost | FY2027 / downside | 1,869.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_credit_cost, downside_2027q2_credit_cost, downside_2027q3_credit_cost, downside_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) downside_fy2027_net_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 2,300.02 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_revenue, downside_2027q2_net_revenue, downside_2027q3_net_revenue, downside_2027q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 691.57 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) downside_fy2027_interest | FY2027 / downside | 493.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_interest, downside_2027q2_interest, downside_2027q3_interest, downside_2027q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_pretax | FY2027 / downside | 198.57 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_pretax, downside_2027q2_pretax, downside_2027q3_pretax, downside_2027q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 2,014.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 66.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) downside_fy2027_loan_investment | FY2027 / downside | 2,800.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_loan_investment, downside_2027q2_loan_investment, downside_2027q3_loan_investment, downside_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_lending | FY2027 / downside | -851.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q2_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q3_cash_after_lending, downside_2027q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) downside_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / downside | 140.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_buybacks, downside_2027q2_buybacks, downside_2027q3_buybacks, downside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / downside | -991.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2026q3_consumer_activity | 2026Q3 / base | 108.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2026q3_consumer_yield | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2026q3_consumer_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 520.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2026q3_consumer_activity, base_2026q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2026q3_business_activity | 2026Q3 / base | 107.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2026q3_business_yield | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2026q3_business_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 470.35 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2026q3_business_activity, base_2026q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,003.35 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_consumer_revenue, base_2026q3_business_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 226.20 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_consumer_revenue, base_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2026q3_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2026q3_business_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 171.68 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_business_revenue, base_2026q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2026q3_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 397.88 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost, base_2026q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2026q3_net_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 605.47 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2026q3_marketing_ratio | 2026Q3 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2026q3_marketing | 2026Q3 / base | 220.74 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2026q3_operations | 2026Q3 / base | 82.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / base | 47.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / base | 358.74 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_marketing, base_2026q3_operations, base_2026q3_ga, base_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | 246.73 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_net_revenue, base_2026q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2026q3_average_debt | 2026Q3 / base | 5,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2026q3_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2026q3_interest | 2026Q3 / base | 103.35 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_average_debt, base_2026q3_annual_interest_rate, base_2026q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / base | 143.38 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 34.41 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_pretax, base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2026q3_noncash_bridge | 2026Q3 / base | 559.26 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_pretax, base_2026q3_credit_cost, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 49.41 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 509.85 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_noncash_bridge, base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2026q3_cash_originations | 2026Q3 / base | 2,400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2026q3_principal_receipts | 2026Q3 / base | 1,700.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2026q3_loan_investment | 2026Q3 / base | 700.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_originations, base_2026q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2026q3_cash_investment | 2026Q3 / base | 713.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2026q3_cash_after_lending | 2026Q3 / base | -203.15 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / base | -253.15 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_after_lending, base_2026q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2026q4_consumer_activity | 2026Q4 / base | 114.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2026q4_consumer_yield | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2026q4_consumer_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 545.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2026q4_consumer_activity, base_2026q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2026q4_business_activity | 2026Q4 / base | 112.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2026q4_business_yield | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2026q4_business_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 494.36 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2026q4_business_activity, base_2026q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1,053.36 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_consumer_revenue, base_2026q4_business_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 237.07 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_consumer_revenue, base_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2026q4_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2026q4_business_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 180.44 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_business_revenue, base_2026q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2026q4_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 417.52 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost, base_2026q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2026q4_net_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 635.84 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 9.30 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 9.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2026q4_marketing_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2026q4_marketing | 2026Q4 / base | 231.74 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2026q4_operations | 2026Q4 / base | 87.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / base | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / base | 377.04 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_marketing, base_2026q4_operations, base_2026q4_ga, base_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 258.80 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_net_revenue, base_2026q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2026q4_average_debt | 2026Q4 / base | 5,525.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2026q4_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / base | 107.74 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_average_debt, base_2026q4_annual_interest_rate, base_2026q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / base | 151.07 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 36.26 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_pretax, base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / base | 587.28 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_pretax, base_2026q4_credit_cost, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 53.26 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 534.03 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_noncash_bridge, base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2026q4_cash_originations | 2026Q4 / base | 2,600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2026q4_principal_receipts | 2026Q4 / base | 1,840.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2026q4_loan_investment | 2026Q4 / base | 760.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_originations, base_2026q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2026q4_cash_investment | 2026Q4 / base | 774.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_capex, base_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2026q4_cash_after_lending | 2026Q4 / base | -239.97 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / base | -289.97 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_after_lending, base_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q1_consumer_activity | 2027Q1 / base | 116.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q1_consumer_yield | 2027Q1 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2027q1_consumer_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 555.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2027q1_consumer_activity, base_2027q1_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q1_business_activity | 2027Q1 / base | 118.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q1_business_yield | 2027Q1 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2027q1_business_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 520.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2027q1_business_activity, base_2027q1_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,090.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_consumer_revenue, base_2027q1_business_revenue, base_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 241.43 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_consumer_revenue, base_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q1_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2027q1_business_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 189.80 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_business_revenue, base_2027q1_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2027q1_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 431.23 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost, base_2027q1_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2027q1_net_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 658.77 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 9.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 9.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2027q1_marketing_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2027q1_marketing | 2027Q1 / base | 239.80 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2027q1_operations | 2027Q1 / base | 92.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / base | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / base | 392.40 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_marketing, base_2027q1_operations, base_2027q1_ga, base_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 266.37 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_net_revenue, base_2027q1_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2027q1_average_debt | 2027Q1 / base | 5,750.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2027q1_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / base | 112.12 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_average_debt, base_2027q1_annual_interest_rate, base_2027q1_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / base | 154.25 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 37.02 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pretax, base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / base | 604.87 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_pretax, base_2027q1_credit_cost, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / base | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 56.02 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 548.85 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_noncash_bridge, base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2027q1_cash_originations | 2027Q1 / base | 2,650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2027q1_principal_receipts | 2027Q1 / base | 1,950.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2027q1_loan_investment | 2027Q1 / base | 700.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_originations, base_2027q1_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2027q1_cash_investment | 2027Q1 / base | 715.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q1_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2027q1_cash_after_lending | 2027Q1 / base | -166.15 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / base | -201.15 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_after_lending, base_2027q1_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q2_consumer_activity | 2027Q2 / base | 121.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q2_consumer_yield | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2027q2_consumer_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 580.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2027q2_consumer_activity, base_2027q2_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q2_business_activity | 2027Q2 / base | 125.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q2_business_yield | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2027q2_business_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 549.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2027q2_business_activity, base_2027q2_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,145.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_consumer_revenue, base_2027q2_business_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 252.30 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_consumer_revenue, base_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q2_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2027q2_business_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 200.38 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_business_revenue, base_2027q2_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2027q2_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 452.69 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost, base_2027q2_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2027q2_net_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 692.32 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 9.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2027q2_marketing_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2027q2_marketing | 2027Q2 / base | 251.90 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2027q2_operations | 2027Q2 / base | 97.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / base | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / base | 411.80 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_marketing, base_2027q2_operations, base_2027q2_ga, base_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 280.52 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_net_revenue, base_2027q2_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2027q2_average_debt | 2027Q2 / base | 6,000.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2027q2_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / base | 117.00 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_average_debt, base_2027q2_annual_interest_rate, base_2027q2_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / base | 163.52 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 39.24 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pretax, base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / base | 636.30 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_pretax, base_2027q2_credit_cost, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / base | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 60.24 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 576.06 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_noncash_bridge, base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2027q2_cash_originations | 2027Q2 / base | 2,850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2027q2_principal_receipts | 2027Q2 / base | 2,100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2027q2_loan_investment | 2027Q2 / base | 750.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_originations, base_2027q2_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2027q2_cash_investment | 2027Q2 / base | 766.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q2_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2027q2_cash_after_lending | 2027Q2 / base | -189.94 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / base | -224.94 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_after_lending, base_2027q2_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q3_consumer_activity | 2027Q3 / base | 128.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q3_consumer_yield | 2027Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2027q3_consumer_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 615.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2027q3_consumer_activity, base_2027q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q3_business_activity | 2027Q3 / base | 136.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q3_business_yield | 2027Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2027q3_business_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 598.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2027q3_business_activity, base_2027q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 1,230.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_consumer_revenue, base_2027q3_business_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 267.52 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_consumer_revenue, base_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q3_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2027q3_business_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 218.27 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_business_revenue, base_2027q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2027q3_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 485.79 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost, base_2027q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2027q3_net_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 744.21 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 10.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2027q3_marketing_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2027q3_marketing | 2027Q3 / base | 270.60 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2027q3_operations | 2027Q3 / base | 102.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / base | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / base | 437.80 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_marketing, base_2027q3_operations, base_2027q3_ga, base_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 306.41 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_net_revenue, base_2027q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2027q3_average_debt | 2027Q3 / base | 6,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2027q3_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / base | 122.85 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_average_debt, base_2027q3_annual_interest_rate, base_2027q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / base | 183.56 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 44.05 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pretax, base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / base | 690.15 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_pretax, base_2027q3_credit_cost, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / base | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 67.05 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 623.10 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_noncash_bridge, base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2027q3_cash_originations | 2027Q3 / base | 3,050.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2027q3_principal_receipts | 2027Q3 / base | 2,260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2027q3_loan_investment | 2027Q3 / base | 790.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_originations, base_2027q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2027q3_cash_investment | 2027Q3 / base | 807.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2027q3_cash_after_lending | 2027Q3 / base | -183.90 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / base | -218.90 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_after_lending, base_2027q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q4_consumer_activity | 2027Q4 / base | 134.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q4_consumer_yield | 2027Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue base_2027q4_consumer_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 640.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, base_2027q4_consumer_activity, base_2027q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 base_2027q4_business_activity | 2027Q4 / base | 143.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 base_2027q4_business_yield | 2027Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue base_2027q4_business_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 632.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, base_2027q4_business_activity, base_2027q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue base_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,290.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_consumer_revenue, base_2027q4_business_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 43.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense base_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 278.40 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_consumer_revenue, base_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue base_2027q4_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 36.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense base_2027q4_business_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 230.68 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_business_revenue, base_2027q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense base_2027q4_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 509.08 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost, base_2027q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense base_2027q4_net_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 780.92 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 10.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue base_2027q4_marketing_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense base_2027q4_marketing | 2027Q4 / base | 283.80 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology base_2027q4_operations | 2027Q4 / base | 107.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / base | 57.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense base_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / base | 458.30 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_marketing, base_2027q4_operations, base_2027q4_ga, base_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 322.62 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_net_revenue, base_2027q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt base_2027q4_average_debt | 2027Q4 / base | 6,625.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees base_2027q4_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate base_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest base_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / base | 129.19 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_average_debt, base_2027q4_annual_interest_rate, base_2027q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy base_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / base | 193.43 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 46.42 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pretax, base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses base_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / base | 724.01 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_pretax, base_2027q4_credit_cost, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use base_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 71.42 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 652.59 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_noncash_bridge, base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations base_2027q4_cash_originations | 2027Q4 / base | 3,250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections base_2027q4_principal_receipts | 2027Q4 / base | 2,400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment base_2027q4_loan_investment | 2027Q4 / base | 850.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_originations, base_2027q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment base_2027q4_cash_investment | 2027Q4 / base | 868.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_capex, base_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment base_2027q4_cash_after_lending | 2027Q4 / base | -215.41 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases base_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases base_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / base | -250.41 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_after_lending, base_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Total revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 3,860.77 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) base_fy2026_credit_cost | FY2026 / base | 1,522.44 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_credit_cost, base_2026q3_credit_cost, base_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) base_fy2026_net_revenue | FY2026 / base | 2,338.34 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_revenue, base_2026q3_net_revenue, base_2026q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 949.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) base_fy2026_interest | FY2026 / base | 402.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_interest, base_2026q3_interest, base_2026q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) base_fy2026_pretax | FY2026 / base | 547.42 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_pretax, base_2026q3_pretax, base_2026q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 2,062.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 50.36 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) base_fy2026_loan_investment | FY2026 / base | 2,847.97 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_loan_investment, base_2026q3_loan_investment, base_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_lending | FY2026 / base | -835.89 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_lending, base_2026q3_cash_after_lending, base_2026q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) base_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / base | 159.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, base_2026q3_buybacks, base_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / base | -995.26 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Total revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 4,755.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) base_fy2027_credit_cost | FY2027 / base | 1,878.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_credit_cost, base_2027q2_credit_cost, base_2027q3_credit_cost, base_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) base_fy2027_net_revenue | FY2027 / base | 2,876.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_revenue, base_2027q2_net_revenue, base_2027q3_net_revenue, base_2027q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 1,175.92 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) base_fy2027_interest | FY2027 / base | 481.16 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_interest, base_2027q2_interest, base_2027q3_interest, base_2027q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) base_fy2027_pretax | FY2027 / base | 694.75 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_pretax, base_2027q2_pretax, base_2027q3_pretax, base_2027q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 2,400.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 66.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) base_fy2027_loan_investment | FY2027 / base | 3,090.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_loan_investment, base_2027q2_loan_investment, base_2027q3_loan_investment, base_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_lending | FY2027 / base | -755.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_lending, base_2027q2_cash_after_lending, base_2027q3_cash_after_lending, base_2027q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) base_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / base | 140.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_buybacks, base_2027q2_buybacks, base_2027q3_buybacks, base_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / base | -895.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2026q3_consumer_activity | 2026Q3 / upside | 111.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2026q3_consumer_yield | 2026Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2026q3_consumer_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 530.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2026q3_consumer_activity, upside_2026q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2026q3_business_activity | 2026Q3 / upside | 113.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2026q3_business_yield | 2026Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2026q3_business_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 497.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2026q3_business_activity, upside_2026q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,040.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_consumer_revenue, upside_2026q3_business_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 217.30 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_consumer_revenue, upside_2026q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2026q3_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q3 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2026q3_business_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 166.50 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_business_revenue, upside_2026q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2026q3_credit_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 383.79 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2026q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2026q3_net_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 656.21 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2026q3_marketing_ratio | 2026Q3 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2026q3_marketing | 2026Q3 / upside | 223.60 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2026q3_operations | 2026Q3 / upside | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / upside | 47.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / upside | 362.60 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_marketing, upside_2026q3_operations, upside_2026q3_ga, upside_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 293.61 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_net_revenue, upside_2026q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2026q3_average_debt | 2026Q3 / upside | 5,400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2026q3_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2026q3_interest | 2026Q3 / upside | 98.55 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_average_debt, upside_2026q3_annual_interest_rate, upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / upside | 195.06 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 46.81 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_pretax, upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2026q3_noncash_bridge | 2026Q3 / upside | 596.85 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_pretax, upside_2026q3_credit_cost, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 61.81 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 535.04 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_noncash_bridge, upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2026q3_cash_originations | 2026Q3 / upside | 2,500.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2026q3_principal_receipts | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,780.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2026q3_loan_investment | 2026Q3 / upside | 720.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_originations, upside_2026q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2026q3_cash_investment | 2026Q3 / upside | 733.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2026q3_cash_after_lending | 2026Q3 / upside | -197.96 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / upside | -247.96 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_after_lending, upside_2026q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2026q4_consumer_activity | 2026Q4 / upside | 118.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2026q4_consumer_yield | 2026Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2026q4_consumer_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 565.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2026q4_consumer_activity, upside_2026q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2026q4_business_activity | 2026Q4 / upside | 120.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2026q4_business_yield | 2026Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2026q4_business_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 531.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2026q4_business_activity, upside_2026q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,110.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_consumer_revenue, upside_2026q4_business_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 231.65 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_consumer_revenue, upside_2026q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2026q4_business_credit_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2026q4_business_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 177.89 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_business_revenue, upside_2026q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2026q4_credit_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 409.53 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2026q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2026q4_net_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 700.47 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.30 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2026q4_marketing_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2026q4_marketing | 2026Q4 / upside | 238.65 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2026q4_operations | 2026Q4 / upside | 88.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / upside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / upside | 384.95 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_marketing, upside_2026q4_operations, upside_2026q4_ga, upside_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 315.52 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_net_revenue, upside_2026q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2026q4_average_debt | 2026Q4 / upside | 5,725.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2026q4_annual_interest_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / upside | 104.48 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_average_debt, upside_2026q4_annual_interest_rate, upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / upside | 211.03 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.65 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_pretax, upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / upside | 639.27 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_pretax, upside_2026q4_credit_cost, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / upside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 67.65 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 571.62 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_noncash_bridge, upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2026q4_cash_originations | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,770.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2026q4_principal_receipts | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,990.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2026q4_loan_investment | 2026Q4 / upside | 780.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_originations, upside_2026q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2026q4_cash_investment | 2026Q4 / upside | 794.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_capex, upside_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2026q4_cash_after_lending | 2026Q4 / upside | -222.38 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / upside | -272.38 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_after_lending, upside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q1_consumer_activity | 2027Q1 / upside | 123.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q1_consumer_yield | 2027Q1 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2027q1_consumer_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 590.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2027q1_consumer_activity, upside_2027q1_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q1_business_activity | 2027Q1 / upside | 133.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q1_business_yield | 2027Q1 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2027q1_business_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 585.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2027q1_business_activity, upside_2027q1_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,190.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q1_business_revenue, upside_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 241.90 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q1_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q1_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2027q1_business_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 195.98 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_business_revenue, upside_2027q1_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2027q1_credit_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 437.88 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2027q1_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2027q1_net_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 752.12 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 9.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 9.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2027q1_marketing_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2027q1_marketing | 2027Q1 / upside | 255.85 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2027q1_operations | 2027Q1 / upside | 93.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / upside | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / upside | 409.45 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_marketing, upside_2027q1_operations, upside_2027q1_ga, upside_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 342.67 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_net_revenue, upside_2027q1_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2027q1_average_debt | 2027Q1 / upside | 6,100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2027q1_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / upside | 111.32 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_average_debt, upside_2027q1_annual_interest_rate, upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / upside | 231.35 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 55.52 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pretax, upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / upside | 688.62 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_pretax, upside_2027q1_credit_cost, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 74.52 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 614.10 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2027q1_cash_originations | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,950.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2027q1_principal_receipts | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2027q1_loan_investment | 2027Q1 / upside | 770.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_originations, upside_2027q1_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2027q1_cash_investment | 2027Q1 / upside | 785.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q1_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2027q1_cash_after_lending | 2027Q1 / upside | -170.90 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / upside | -205.90 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q1_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q2_consumer_activity | 2027Q2 / upside | 130.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q2_consumer_yield | 2027Q2 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2027q2_consumer_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 625.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2027q2_consumer_activity, upside_2027q2_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q2_business_activity | 2027Q2 / upside | 145.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q2_business_yield | 2027Q2 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2027q2_business_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 639.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2027q2_business_activity, upside_2027q2_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,280.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q2_business_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 256.25 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q2_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q2_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2027q2_business_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 214.07 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_business_revenue, upside_2027q2_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2027q2_credit_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 470.32 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2027q2_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2027q2_net_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 809.68 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 9.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2027q2_marketing_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2027q2_marketing | 2027Q2 / upside | 275.20 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2027q2_operations | 2027Q2 / upside | 98.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / upside | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / upside | 436.10 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_marketing, upside_2027q2_operations, upside_2027q2_ga, upside_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 373.58 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_net_revenue, upside_2027q2_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2027q2_average_debt | 2027Q2 / upside | 6,525.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2027q2_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / upside | 119.08 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_average_debt, upside_2027q2_annual_interest_rate, upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / upside | 254.50 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 61.08 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pretax, upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / upside | 744.92 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_pretax, upside_2027q2_credit_cost, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 82.08 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 662.84 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2027q2_cash_originations | 2027Q2 / upside | 3,250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2027q2_principal_receipts | 2027Q2 / upside | 2,410.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2027q2_loan_investment | 2027Q2 / upside | 840.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_originations, upside_2027q2_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2027q2_cash_investment | 2027Q2 / upside | 856.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q2_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2027q2_cash_after_lending | 2027Q2 / upside | -193.16 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / upside | -228.16 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q2_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q3_consumer_activity | 2027Q3 / upside | 140.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q3_consumer_yield | 2027Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2027q3_consumer_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 670.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2027q3_consumer_activity, upside_2027q3_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q3_business_activity | 2027Q3 / upside | 162.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q3_business_yield | 2027Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2027q3_business_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 713.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2027q3_business_activity, upside_2027q3_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,400.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q3_business_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 274.70 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q3_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q3_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2027q3_business_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 238.86 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_business_revenue, upside_2027q3_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2027q3_credit_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 513.56 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2027q3_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2027q3_net_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 886.44 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2027q3_marketing_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2027q3_marketing | 2027Q3 / upside | 301.00 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2027q3_operations | 2027Q3 / upside | 103.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / upside | 469.20 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_marketing, upside_2027q3_operations, upside_2027q3_ga, upside_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 417.24 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_net_revenue, upside_2027q3_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2027q3_average_debt | 2027Q3 / upside | 7,000.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2027q3_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / upside | 127.75 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_average_debt, upside_2027q3_annual_interest_rate, upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / upside | 289.49 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 69.48 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pretax, upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / upside | 823.85 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_pretax, upside_2027q3_credit_cost, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 92.48 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 731.37 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2027q3_cash_originations | 2027Q3 / upside | 3,590.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2027q3_principal_receipts | 2027Q3 / upside | 2,680.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2027q3_loan_investment | 2027Q3 / upside | 910.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_originations, upside_2027q3_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2027q3_cash_investment | 2027Q3 / upside | 927.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q3_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2027q3_cash_after_lending | 2027Q3 / upside | -195.63 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / upside | -230.63 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q3_buybacks). |
| Consumer average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q4_consumer_activity | 2027Q4 / upside | 148.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q4_consumer_yield | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer lending revenue upside_2027q4_consumer_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 710.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_consumer, upside_2027q4_consumer_activity, upside_2027q4_consumer_yield). |
| Business average earning activity / Q2 upside_2027q4_business_activity | 2027Q4 / upside | 178.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business revenue yield versus Q2 upside_2027q4_business_yield | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business lending revenue upside_2027q4_business_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 782.00 USD_millions | derived: Activity calibration and revenue yield can vary independently; includes interest and contractual fees. Formula: multiply(q2_business, upside_2027q4_business_activity, upside_2027q4_business_yield). |
| Other revenue upside_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,510.00 USD_millions | derived: No bank acquisition contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q4_business_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Consumer fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consumer fair-value expense upside_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 291.10 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_consumer_revenue, upside_2027q4_consumer_credit_ratio). |
| Business fair-value expense / revenue upside_2027q4_business_credit_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 33.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Business fair-value expense upside_2027q4_business_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 261.97 USD_millions | derived: Credit and valuation sensitivity, not a cohort charge-off forecast. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_business_revenue, upside_2027q4_business_credit_ratio). |
| Total fair-value expense upside_2027q4_credit_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 553.07 USD_millions | derived: No double counting of charge-offs below fair-value expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_consumer_credit_cost, upside_2027q4_business_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense upside_2027q4_net_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 956.93 USD_millions | derived: Financial-company net revenue, not industrial gross profit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 10.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| SBC expense upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing / revenue upside_2027q4_marketing_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 21.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Marketing expense upside_2027q4_marketing | 2027Q4 / upside | 324.65 USD_millions | derived: Acquisition expense retained in earnings. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_marketing_ratio). |
| Operations and technology upside_2027q4_operations | 2027Q4 / upside | 108.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / upside | 57.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating expense upside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / upside | 500.15 USD_millions | derived: SBC is already within departmental expense; add back only in cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_marketing, upside_2027q4_operations, upside_2027q4_ga, upside_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 456.78 USD_millions | derived: No Grasshopper synergies or one-time transaction recovery assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_net_revenue, upside_2027q4_opex). |
| Average funded debt upside_2027q4_average_debt | 2027Q4 / upside | 7,450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net annual debt cost including fees upside_2027q4_annual_interest_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 7.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter of annual rate upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net funding and corporate interest upside_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / upside | 135.96 USD_millions | derived: Blended cost for corporate and funding debt; commitments are not treated as draws. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_average_debt, upside_2027q4_annual_interest_rate, upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction). |
| Pretax earnings proxy upside_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / upside | 320.82 USD_millions | derived: No speculative nonoperating gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash taxes / modeled pretax income upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 77.00 USD_millions | derived: All configured pretax cases are positive; negative stress would require a cash-tax floor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pretax, upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Pretax earnings plus noncash expenses upside_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / upside | 895.39 USD_millions | derived: Fair-value expense assumed noncash here; loan receipts are modeled separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_pretax, upside_2027q4_credit_cost, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net other cash use upside_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax and other operating timing upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 102.00 USD_millions | derived: Covers fee amortization, tax timing and other operating balances, not cash loan originations. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_working_capital_use). |
| Operating cash before loan investment upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 793.39 USD_millions | derived: Analytical CFO proxy; credit losses affect earnings and principal collections, not an extra cash expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash fixed assets and software upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash loan originations upside_2027q4_cash_originations | 2027Q4 / upside | 3,900.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash principal collections upside_2027q4_principal_receipts | 2027Q4 / upside | 2,920.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Net cash loan investment upside_2027q4_loan_investment | 2027Q4 / upside | 980.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes interest collections already in operating cash and noncash renewals. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_originations, upside_2027q4_principal_receipts). |
| Cash capital and net loan investment upside_2027q4_cash_investment | 2027Q4 / upside | 998.00 USD_millions | derived: Loan growth can consume more than reported CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_capex, upside_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment upside_2027q4_cash_after_lending | 2027Q4 / upside | -204.61 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_cash_investment). |
| Share repurchases upside_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital allocation; H2 $100M below June $218M covenant availability. Later authorization and covenant capacity remain conditions. |
| Cash after lending and repurchases upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / upside | -239.61 USD_millions | derived: Before debt amortization, refinancing, fees and reserve transfers; not equity distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Total revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 3,954.07 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) upside_fy2026_credit_cost | FY2026 / upside | 1,500.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_credit_cost, upside_2026q3_credit_cost, upside_2026q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) upside_fy2026_net_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 2,453.70 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_revenue, upside_2026q3_net_revenue, upside_2026q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 1,053.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) upside_fy2026_interest | FY2026 / upside | 394.90 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_interest, upside_2026q3_interest, upside_2026q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_pretax | FY2026 / upside | 659.06 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_pretax, upside_2026q3_pretax, upside_2026q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 2,125.23 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 50.36 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) upside_fy2026_loan_investment | FY2026 / upside | 2,887.97 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_loan_investment, upside_2026q3_loan_investment, upside_2026q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_lending | FY2026 / upside | -813.11 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_lending, upside_2026q3_cash_after_lending, upside_2026q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) upside_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / upside | 159.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, upside_2026q3_buybacks, upside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / upside | -972.48 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Total revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 5,380.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Fair-value expense ($M) upside_fy2027_credit_cost | FY2027 / upside | 1,974.82 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_credit_cost, upside_2027q2_credit_cost, upside_2027q3_credit_cost, upside_2027q4_credit_cost). |
| Revenue after fair-value expense ($M) upside_fy2027_net_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 3,405.19 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_revenue, upside_2027q2_net_revenue, upside_2027q3_net_revenue, upside_2027q4_net_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 1,590.28 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net funding/corporate interest ($M) upside_fy2027_interest | FY2027 / upside | 494.12 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_interest, upside_2027q2_interest, upside_2027q3_interest, upside_2027q4_interest). |
| Pretax earnings proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_pretax | FY2027 / upside | 1,096.17 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_pretax, upside_2027q2_pretax, upside_2027q3_pretax, upside_2027q4_pretax). |
| Operating cash before loan investment ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 2,801.70 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash fixed assets and software ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 66.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Cash loan originations less principal receipts ($M) upside_fy2027_loan_investment | FY2027 / upside | 3,500.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_loan_investment, upside_2027q2_loan_investment, upside_2027q3_loan_investment, upside_2027q4_loan_investment). |
| Cash after capex and loan investment ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_lending | FY2027 / upside | -764.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q2_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q3_cash_after_lending, upside_2027q4_cash_after_lending). |
| Share repurchase cash ($M) upside_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / upside | 140.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_buybacks, upside_2027q2_buybacks, upside_2027q3_buybacks, upside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Cash after lending and repurchases ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / upside | -904.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
Model boundaries
- Enova withdrew the OCC/Federal Reserve applications for the proposed Grasshopper transaction in September. No closing, deposit funding or acquisition synergy is assumed. Withdrawal is not modeled as a completed acquisition.
- Fair-value expense includes credit economics and changes in valuation assumptions; it is not interchangeable with charge-offs or a cash payment. Consumer and small-business loss sensitivities are not forecasts of specific loan cohorts.
- Loan-roll-forward repayments include interest and noncash renewals. Cash investing uses cash originations and principal repayments from the cash-flow statement, not those incompatible roll-forward totals.
- Cash after lending excludes new borrowing, refinancing, asset transfers and collateral reserve changes. It is a funding need/surplus before financing, not a parent liquidity or distributable cash forecast.
- September facility amendments and the anticipated September 25 OnDeck securitization are funding capacity/plans, not cash earned. No proceeds from the planned transaction are assumed received as of September 19.
- The June $349M board buyback authorization exceeded the $218M then available under senior-note covenants. Desk H2 buybacks total $100M; availability and covenant tests must be checked again before an actual repurchase.
- The model does not forecast adjusted EPS or buyback-driven share counts. Management reaffirmed adjusted-EPS growth outlook separately; revenue calibration does not imply a full reconciliation to that earnings guide.
- September OnDeck performance data covers a defined serviced subset including owned and sold assets. It is not applied as the credit curve for all consolidated loans. No complete loan-vintage, capital or debt-amortization waterfall is provided.
Credit earnings versus cash committed to the loan book
Can lending growth earn an adequate spread after credit costs while funding its own portfolio expansion?
H1 revenue was $1.804B; $707.0M fair-value expense left $1.097B net revenue. Operating income was $444.3M and net interest expense $191.9M. CFO of $1.019B preceded $1.388B net cash loan investment and $23.4M capex/software, leaving negative $392.8M before repurchases and financing. June cash was $122.2M plus separately restricted cash $343.0M. Loans had $5.351B principal and $6.173B fair value. On September 14 Enova withdrew Grasshopper-related regulatory applications while reaffirming revenue growth outlook of roughly 25% for Q3 and 20-25% for 2026. September facilities and a planned OnDeck securitization concern collateral funding, not operating revenue. Buyback authorization and covenant availability are separate constraints.
The competing explanation
Credit marks and marketing can absorb growth while principal collections lag cash originations. More borrowing and restricted collateral may be needed even when reported earnings and CFO are positive.
Risks to track
- Consumer and small-business defaults can worsen at different speeds.
- Fair-value estimates can change before realized charge-offs.
- Funding costs, advance rates and collateral covenants constrain growth.
- Repurchases compete with loan funding and debt obligations.
- Planned securitizations may close on different terms or timing.
Next checkpoints
- Credit and collections · Next quarterly filing (estimated). Reconcile product credit margins with cash principal receipts and noncash renewals.
- Planned OnDeck financing · Anticipated September 25, 2026 (estimated). Confirm actual closing and collateral/funding terms; no proceeds assumed today.
- Capital allocation · Each subsequent filing (estimated). Check covenant availability, actual repurchases and funded debt after application withdrawal.
Data coverage and open work
- Enova withdrew the OCC/Federal Reserve applications for the proposed Grasshopper transaction in September. No closing, deposit funding or acquisition synergy is assumed. Withdrawal is not modeled as a completed acquisition.
- Fair-value expense includes credit economics and changes in valuation assumptions; it is not interchangeable with charge-offs or a cash payment. Consumer and small-business loss sensitivities are not forecasts of specific loan cohorts.
- Loan-roll-forward repayments include interest and noncash renewals. Cash investing uses cash originations and principal repayments from the cash-flow statement, not those incompatible roll-forward totals.
- Cash after lending excludes new borrowing, refinancing, asset transfers and collateral reserve changes. It is a funding need/surplus before financing, not a parent liquidity or distributable cash forecast.
- September facility amendments and the anticipated September 25 OnDeck securitization are funding capacity/plans, not cash earned. No proceeds from the planned transaction are assumed received as of September 19.
- The June $349M board buyback authorization exceeded the $218M then available under senior-note covenants. Desk H2 buybacks total $100M; availability and covenant tests must be checked again before an actual repurchase.
- The model does not forecast adjusted EPS or buyback-driven share counts. Management reaffirmed adjusted-EPS growth outlook separately; revenue calibration does not imply a full reconciliation to that earnings guide.
- September OnDeck performance data covers a defined serviced subset including owned and sold assets. It is not applied as the credit curve for all consolidated loans. No complete loan-vintage, capital or debt-amortization waterfall is provided.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -1.6 | +0.2 | +2.2 | 58% |
| 5 sessions | -4.0 | +0.3 | +5.1 | 55% |
| 10 sessions | -6.2 | +0.4 | +8.0 | 54% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.