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$CRDO

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd · Nasdaq · SIC 3674 · CIK 1807794 · revision 5 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Credo designs high-speed connectivity technology for data centers, including active electrical cables, optical products, signal-processing chips and interconnect intellectual property. It uses outside manufacturing partners, so rapid product growth requires inventory and reserved supplier capacity even without owning large factories. A small number of end customers drive most revenue. Acquisitions broaden the optical portfolio while adding intangible assets, compensation and potential share claims.

Three drivers

  1. Customer program ramps and copper/optical adoption
  2. GAAP margins, research spending and stock compensation
  3. Inventory, supplier-capacity deposits and acquisition cash

Thesis

Our view

Credo has strong shipment momentum, but the useful test is growth after GAAP costs and capacity funding. Q1 revenue was $479.0M; the next-quarter guide is $525M-$535M. Four end customers represented 84% of revenue. Q1 stock compensation was $88.0M, and an additional $102.4M of supplier deposits must be funded within FY2027. The model keeps those deposits separate from PP&E, shows stock compensation explicitly and deducts technology-license financing payments after conventional FCF.

What changes it

Track customer-program breadth, GAAP gross margin and operating expense versus the Q2 guide. Watch inventory/receivable conversion, supplier deposits, acquisition integration and share claims; strong adjusted net income alone does not resolve those cash and ownership questions.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q2
2024-11-02
2025Q3
2025-02-01
2025Q4
2025-05-03
2026Q1
2025-08-02
2026Q2
2025-11-01
2026Q3
2026-01-31
2026Q4
2026-05-02
2027Q1
2026-08-01
Revenue ($M)72.01135.02170.0†3223.14268.01407.02437.0†3479.04
Gross profit ($M)45.5585.96114.2†7150.48181.05278.96298.1†7309.18
Operating income ($M)-8.4926.21033.8†1160.71278.89149.610155.8†11120.712
Net income ($M)-4.21329.41436.6†1563.41682.613157.114169.1†15129.416
EPS, diluted ($)-0.03170.16180.34190.44170.82180.6719
Diluted shares (M)166.520182.521184.622187.720192.021194.422
Cash ($M)239.223299.224236.325219.626567.6271,220.5281,165.029466.929
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)10.3†304.2†3157.8†3254.23361.7†30166.2†31182.2†3290.233
Capex ($M)21.9†344.6†353.7†362.83723.2†3426.5†354.8†367.337
Free cash flow ($M)-11.7†38-0.4†3954.2†4051.3†4138.5†38139.7†39177.5†4082.9†41

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2027Q2530.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q3593.62026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q4664.82026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2028Q1718.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Connectivity ramps, stock compensation and supplier deposits

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Anchor the next quarter to company revenue, GAAP margin and GAAP expense guidance, then vary shipment realization and sequential growth. Deduct GAAP operating expense from gross profit. Add back explicitly modeled stock compensation and depreciation/amortization for a cash bridge, subtract taxes/other working capital and supplier-capacity deposits, then PP&E and financing-classified technology-license payments. The announced additional $102.4M supplier deposit is paid within FY2027 in every case, with different quarterly timing. Acquisition cash and contingent share claims remain separately disclosed.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Q2 revenue guidance midpoint2027Q2530.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q2 GAAP gross margin midpoint2027Q263.9%derived. Company range midpoint, not adjusted gross margin.
Q2 GAAP operating expense guidance midpoint2027Q2201.50derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
August cash plus short-term investments2027Q1764.26derived. Cash and investments; deposits and goodwill excluded.
Q1 stock compensation expense2027Q187.98reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-02
Q1 CFO less PP&E2027Q182.95derived. Common FCF measure excludes acquisition and financing-classified payments.
Q1 cash after PP&E, licenses and acquisition2027Q1-657.84derived. Additional capital-allocation bridge, before RSU withholding and equity-plan receipts.
Existing refundable capacity deposits2027Q188.40reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-02
Additional supplier-capacity deposits due FY2027FY2027102.40reported. Subsequent signed reservation commitment disclosed in the Q1 10-Q; payment timing within the year is a desk assumption. Source · 2026-09-02
Top four end-customer revenue share2027Q184.0%derived. One consistent end-customer view, separate from direct contracting customers.
Acquisition contingent equity consideration2027Q1300.00reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-02

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Financing-classified license payments ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)Stock compensation expense ($M)
2027Q212.09-2.9115.00498.20308.881.50103.35-4.4192.00
2027Q344.5826.5818.00508.16309.981.2094.1725.3897.00
2027Q471.3751.3720.00518.33316.180.8189.5850.55102.00
2028Q135.4515.4520.00518.33313.591.5075.6613.95107.00
FY2027218.26157.9860.282,003.691,244.128.69407.81149.30378.98
FY2028104.1915.1989.002,136.341,287.045.98261.559.21458.00

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Financing-classified license payments ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)Stock compensation expense ($M)
2027Q2104.4792.4712.00530.00338.671.50137.1790.9790.00
2027Q3151.52137.5214.00593.60382.871.20169.28136.3296.00
2027Q4191.53175.5316.00664.83432.140.81205.74174.72102.00
2028Q1209.02191.0218.00718.02466.711.50226.72189.52108.00
FY2027537.75488.4749.282,267.441,462.768.69632.89479.79375.98
FY20281,018.15934.1584.003,332.322,183.865.981,134.00928.17468.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Financing-classified license payments ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)Stock compensation expense ($M)
2027Q2173.26161.2612.00545.90354.831.50153.33159.7692.00
2027Q3214.41200.4114.00644.16425.151.20209.54199.2199.00
2027Q4256.37240.3716.00760.11509.270.81278.58239.55106.00
2028Q1332.67312.6720.00851.32574.641.50327.80311.17113.00
FY2027734.27684.9949.282,429.181,598.348.69762.15676.30384.98
FY20281,761.801,666.8095.004,250.982,892.895.981,796.901,660.82494.00
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
Q1 revenue
q1_revenue
2027Q1 / shared479.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 GAAP gross profit
q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / shared309.08
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 GAAP operating income
q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / shared120.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 stock compensation expense
q1_stock_compensation
2027Q1 / shared87.98
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 operating cash flow
q1_cfo
2027Q1 / shared90.23
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 PP&E purchases
q1_capex
2027Q1 / shared7.28
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 financing-classified license payments
q1_license_payments
2027Q1 / shared5.17
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
August cash and cash equivalents
q1_cash
2027Q1 / shared466.87
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
August short-term investments
q1_investments
2027Q1 / shared297.39
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 net DustPhotonics acquisition payment
q1_acquisition
2027Q1 / shared735.62
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 RSU tax withholding cash
q1_rsu_withholding
2027Q1 / shared25.94
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Existing refundable capacity deposits
q1_supplier_deposits
2027Q1 / shared88.40
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Acquisition contingent consideration liability
q1_acq_contingent_cash
2027Q1 / shared10.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Acquisition contingent equity consideration
q1_acq_contingent_equity
2027Q1 / shared300.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Q1 CFO less PP&E
q1_fcf
2027Q1 / shared82.95
USD_millions
derived: Common FCF measure excludes acquisition and financing-classified payments. Formula: subtract(q1_cfo, q1_capex).
Q1 cash after PP&E and license payments
q1_cash_after_license
2027Q1 / shared77.78
USD_millions
derived: Deducts license financing payments, not acquisitions or RSU withholding. Formula: subtract(q1_fcf, q1_license_payments).
Q1 cash after PP&E, licenses and acquisition
q1_after_acquisition
2027Q1 / shared-657.84
USD_millions
derived: Additional capital-allocation bridge, before RSU withholding and equity-plan receipts. Formula: subtract(q1_cash_after_license, q1_acquisition).
August cash plus short-term investments
q1_liquid_assets
2027Q1 / shared764.26
USD_millions
derived: Cash and investments; deposits and goodwill excluded. Formula: sum(q1_cash, q1_investments).
Q2 revenue guidance low
q2_revenue_guide_low
2027Q2 / shared525.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Q2 revenue guidance high
q2_revenue_guide_high
2027Q2 / shared535.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
Q2 revenue guidance endpoint sum
q2_revenue_guide_sum
2027Q2 / shared1,060.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q2_revenue_guide_low, q2_revenue_guide_high).
Q2 revenue guidance midpoint
q2_revenue_guide
2027Q2 / shared530.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q2_revenue_guide_sum, two).
Q2 GAAP operating expense guidance low
q2_opex_guide_low
2027Q2 / shared199.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Q2 GAAP operating expense guidance high
q2_opex_guide_high
2027Q2 / shared204.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Q2 GAAP operating expense guidance endpoint sum
q2_opex_guide_sum
2027Q2 / shared403.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q2_opex_guide_low, q2_opex_guide_high).
Q2 GAAP operating expense guidance midpoint
q2_opex_guide
2027Q2 / shared201.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q2_opex_guide_sum, two).
Q2 GAAP margin guide low
q2_gm_low
2027Q2 / shared62.9%
ratio
management guidance: Company GAAP margin guidance; adjusted margin guidance is higher and separate. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Q2 GAAP margin guide high
q2_gm_high
2027Q2 / shared64.9%
ratio
management guidance: Company GAAP margin guidance; adjusted margin guidance is higher and separate. Primary source · 2026-09-01
Q2 GAAP margin endpoint sum
q2_gm_sum
2027Q2 / shared127.8%
ratio
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q2_gm_low, q2_gm_high).
Q2 GAAP gross margin midpoint
q2_gm_mid
2027Q2 / shared63.9%
ratio
derived: Company range midpoint, not adjusted gross margin. Formula: divide(q2_gm_sum, two).
Additional supplier-capacity deposits due FY2027
new_capacity_deposits
FY2027 / shared102.40
USD_millions
reported: Subsequent signed reservation commitment disclosed in the Q1 10-Q; payment timing within the year is a desk assumption. Primary source · 2026-09-02
direct customer a revenue share
direct_customer_a
2027Q1 / shared43.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
direct customer b revenue share
direct_customer_b
2027Q1 / shared28.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
end customer c revenue share
end_customer_c
2027Q1 / shared28.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
end customer d revenue share
end_customer_d
2027Q1 / shared33.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
end customer e revenue share
end_customer_e
2027Q1 / shared13.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
end customer f revenue share
end_customer_f
2027Q1 / shared10.0%
ratio
reported: Direct counterparties and end-customer profiles are different concentration views; do not combine or infer identities. Primary source · 2026-09-02
Top four end-customer revenue share
top_four_end_customers
2027Q1 / shared84.0%
ratio
derived: One consistent end-customer view, separate from direct contracting customers. Formula: sum(end_customer_c, end_customer_d, end_customer_e, end_customer_f).
Shipment realization versus Q2 midpoint
downside_2027q2_delivery
2027Q2 / downside94.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside498.20
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times desk delivery case; not a new company range. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue_guide, downside_2027q2_delivery).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / downside62.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside308.88
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2027q2_opex_factor
2027Q2 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / downside205.53
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2027q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside103.35
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q2_stock_compensation
2027Q2 / downside92.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2027q2_cash_start
2027Q2 / downside218.35
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_stock_compensation, downside_2027q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2027q2_wc_ratio
2027Q2 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / downside114.59
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
downside_2027q2_deposit_weight
2027Q2 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
downside_2027q2_capacity_deposit
2027Q2 / downside71.68
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, downside_2027q2_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside206.27
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_other_wc, downside_2027q2_capacity_deposit, downside_2027q2_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside12.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_start, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-2.91
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2027q2_license_payments
2027Q2 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2027q2_cash_after_license
2027Q2 / downside-4.41
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2027q3_growth
2027Q3 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside508.16
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / downside61.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside309.98
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2027q3_opex_factor
2027Q3 / downside107.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / downside215.81
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2027q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside94.17
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q3_stock_compensation
2027Q3 / downside97.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2027q3_cash_start
2027Q3 / downside215.17
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_stock_compensation, downside_2027q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2027q3_wc_ratio
2027Q3 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / downside116.88
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
downside_2027q3_deposit_weight
2027Q3 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
downside_2027q3_capacity_deposit
2027Q3 / downside30.72
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, downside_2027q3_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside170.60
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_other_wc, downside_2027q3_capacity_deposit, downside_2027q3_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside44.58
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_start, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside26.58
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2027q3_license_payments
2027Q3 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2027q3_cash_after_license
2027Q3 / downside25.38
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2027q4_growth
2027Q4 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside518.33
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / downside61.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside316.18
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2027q4_opex_factor
2027Q4 / downside112.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / downside226.60
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2027q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside89.58
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2027q4_stock_compensation
2027Q4 / downside102.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2027q4_cash_start
2027Q4 / downside216.58
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_stock_compensation, downside_2027q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2027q4_wc_ratio
2027Q4 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / downside119.22
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
downside_2027q4_deposit_weight
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
downside_2027q4_capacity_deposit
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, downside_2027q4_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / downside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside145.22
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_other_wc, downside_2027q4_capacity_deposit, downside_2027q4_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside71.37
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_start, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside51.37
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2027q4_license_payments
2027Q4 / downside0.81
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2027q4_cash_after_license
2027Q4 / downside50.55
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / downside518.33
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2028q1_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / downside60.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / downside313.59
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2028q1_opex_factor
2028Q1 / downside118.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / downside237.93
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2028q1_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / downside75.66
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q1_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2028q1_stock_compensation
2028Q1 / downside107.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / downside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2028q1_cash_start
2028Q1 / downside208.66
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q1_stock_compensation, downside_2028q1_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2028q1_wc_ratio
2028Q1 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / downside119.22
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
downside_2028q1_capacity_deposit
2028Q1 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2028q1_other
2028Q1 / downside29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / downside173.22
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_other_wc, downside_2028q1_capacity_deposit, downside_2028q1_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / downside35.45
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_start, downside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / downside15.45
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2028q1_license_payments
2028Q1 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2028q1_cash_after_license
2028Q1 / downside13.95
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q1_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / downside528.69
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / downside60.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / downside319.86
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2028q2_opex_factor
2028Q2 / downside124.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / downside249.82
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2028q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / downside70.04
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2028q2_stock_compensation
2028Q2 / downside112.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / downside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2028q2_cash_start
2028Q2 / downside209.04
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q2_stock_compensation, downside_2028q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2028q2_wc_ratio
2028Q2 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / downside121.60
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
downside_2028q2_capacity_deposit
2028Q2 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2028q2_other
2028Q2 / downside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / downside178.60
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_other_wc, downside_2028q2_capacity_deposit, downside_2028q2_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / downside30.44
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_start, downside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / downside8.44
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2028q2_license_payments
2028Q2 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2028q2_cash_after_license
2028Q2 / downside6.94
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / downside539.27
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / downside323.56
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2028q3_opex_factor
2028Q3 / downside130.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / downside262.31
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2028q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / downside61.25
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2028q3_stock_compensation
2028Q3 / downside117.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / downside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2028q3_cash_start
2028Q3 / downside206.25
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q3_stock_compensation, downside_2028q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2028q3_wc_ratio
2028Q3 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / downside124.03
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
downside_2028q3_capacity_deposit
2028Q3 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2028q3_other
2028Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / downside184.03
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_other_wc, downside_2028q3_capacity_deposit, downside_2028q3_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / downside22.21
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_start, downside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / downside0.21
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2028q3_license_payments
2028Q3 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2028q3_cash_after_license
2028Q3 / downside-1.28
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
downside_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
downside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / downside550.05
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / downside330.03
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
downside_2028q4_opex_factor
2028Q4 / downside136.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / downside275.43
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, downside_2028q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / downside54.60
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
downside_2028q4_stock_compensation
2028Q4 / downside122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
downside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / downside29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
downside_2028q4_cash_start
2028Q4 / downside205.60
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_operating_income, downside_2028q4_stock_compensation, downside_2028q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
downside_2028q4_wc_ratio
2028Q4 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
downside_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / downside126.51
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
downside_2028q4_capacity_deposit
2028Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
downside_2028q4_other
2028Q4 / downside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
downside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / downside189.51
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_other_wc, downside_2028q4_capacity_deposit, downside_2028q4_other).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / downside16.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_start, downside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / downside-8.91
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
downside_2028q4_license_payments
2028Q4 / downside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
downside_2028q4_cash_after_license
2028Q4 / downside-10.41
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_fcf, downside_2028q4_license_payments).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside2,003.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside1,244.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside407.81
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
downside_fy2027_stock_compensation
FY2027 / downside378.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_stock_compensation, downside_2027q2_stock_compensation, downside_2027q3_stock_compensation, downside_2027q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside218.26
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside60.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside157.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_license_payments
FY2027 / downside8.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_license_payments, downside_2027q2_license_payments, downside_2027q3_license_payments, downside_2027q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_license
FY2027 / downside149.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_license, downside_2027q2_cash_after_license, downside_2027q3_cash_after_license, downside_2027q4_cash_after_license).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / downside2,136.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / downside1,287.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / downside261.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
downside_fy2028_stock_compensation
FY2028 / downside458.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_stock_compensation, downside_2028q2_stock_compensation, downside_2028q3_stock_compensation, downside_2028q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / downside104.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / downside89.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_capex, downside_2028q2_capex, downside_2028q3_capex, downside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / downside15.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
downside_fy2028_license_payments
FY2028 / downside5.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_license_payments, downside_2028q2_license_payments, downside_2028q3_license_payments, downside_2028q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_license
FY2028 / downside9.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_license, downside_2028q2_cash_after_license, downside_2028q3_cash_after_license, downside_2028q4_cash_after_license).
Shipment realization versus Q2 midpoint
base_2027q2_delivery
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base530.00
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times desk delivery case; not a new company range. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue_guide, base_2027q2_delivery).
GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / base63.9%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base338.67
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2027q2_opex_factor
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / base201.50
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2027q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base137.17
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q2_stock_compensation
2027Q2 / base90.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2027q2_cash_start
2027Q2 / base250.17
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_stock_compensation, base_2027q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2027q2_wc_ratio
2027Q2 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / base79.50
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
base_2027q2_deposit_weight
2027Q2 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
base_2027q2_capacity_deposit
2027Q2 / base51.20
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, base_2027q2_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base145.70
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_other_wc, base_2027q2_capacity_deposit, base_2027q2_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base104.47
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_start, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base92.47
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2027q2_license_payments
2027Q2 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2027q2_cash_after_license
2027Q2 / base90.97
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2027q3_growth
2027Q3 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base593.60
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / base64.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base382.87
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2027q3_opex_factor
2027Q3 / base106.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / base213.59
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2027q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base169.28
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q3_stock_compensation
2027Q3 / base96.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2027q3_cash_start
2027Q3 / base289.28
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_stock_compensation, base_2027q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2027q3_wc_ratio
2027Q3 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / base89.04
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
base_2027q3_deposit_weight
2027Q3 / base30.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
base_2027q3_capacity_deposit
2027Q3 / base30.72
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, base_2027q3_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base137.76
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_other_wc, base_2027q3_capacity_deposit, base_2027q3_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base151.52
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_start, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base137.52
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2027q3_license_payments
2027Q3 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2027q3_cash_after_license
2027Q3 / base136.32
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2027q4_growth
2027Q4 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base664.83
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / base65.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base432.14
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2027q4_opex_factor
2027Q4 / base112.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / base226.41
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2027q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base205.74
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2027q4_stock_compensation
2027Q4 / base102.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2027q4_cash_start
2027Q4 / base332.74
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_stock_compensation, base_2027q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2027q4_wc_ratio
2027Q4 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / base99.72
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
base_2027q4_deposit_weight
2027Q4 / base20.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
base_2027q4_capacity_deposit
2027Q4 / base20.48
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, base_2027q4_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base141.20
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_other_wc, base_2027q4_capacity_deposit, base_2027q4_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base191.53
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_start, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base175.53
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2027q4_license_payments
2027Q4 / base0.81
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2027q4_cash_after_license
2027Q4 / base174.72
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / base108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / base718.02
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2028q1_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / base65.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / base466.71
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2028q1_opex_factor
2028Q1 / base119.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / base239.99
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2028q1_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / base226.72
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q1_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2028q1_stock_compensation
2028Q1 / base108.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / base26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2028q1_cash_start
2028Q1 / base360.72
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q1_stock_compensation, base_2028q1_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2028q1_wc_ratio
2028Q1 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / base107.70
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
base_2028q1_capacity_deposit
2028Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2028q1_other
2028Q1 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / base151.70
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_other_wc, base_2028q1_capacity_deposit, base_2028q1_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / base209.02
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_start, base_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / base191.02
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2028q1_license_payments
2028Q1 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2028q1_cash_after_license
2028Q1 / base189.52
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q1_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / base110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / base789.82
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / base65.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / base517.33
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2028q2_opex_factor
2028Q2 / base126.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / base254.39
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2028q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / base262.94
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2028q2_stock_compensation
2028Q2 / base114.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / base27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2028q2_cash_start
2028Q2 / base403.94
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q2_stock_compensation, base_2028q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2028q2_wc_ratio
2028Q2 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / base118.47
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
base_2028q2_capacity_deposit
2028Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2028q2_other
2028Q2 / base27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / base165.47
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_other_wc, base_2028q2_capacity_deposit, base_2028q2_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / base238.47
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_start, base_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / base218.47
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2028q2_license_payments
2028Q2 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2028q2_cash_after_license
2028Q2 / base216.97
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / base110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / base868.80
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / base65.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / base569.07
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2028q3_opex_factor
2028Q3 / base133.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / base269.65
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2028q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / base299.41
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2028q3_stock_compensation
2028Q3 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2028q3_cash_start
2028Q3 / base447.41
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q3_stock_compensation, base_2028q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2028q3_wc_ratio
2028Q3 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / base130.32
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
base_2028q3_capacity_deposit
2028Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2028q3_other
2028Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / base180.32
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_other_wc, base_2028q3_capacity_deposit, base_2028q3_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / base267.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_start, base_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / base245.09
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2028q3_license_payments
2028Q3 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2028q3_cash_after_license
2028Q3 / base243.60
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
base_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / base110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
base_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / base955.68
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
base_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / base66.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / base630.75
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
base_2028q4_opex_factor
2028Q4 / base141.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / base285.83
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, base_2028q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / base344.92
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_gross_profit, base_2028q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
base_2028q4_stock_compensation
2028Q4 / base126.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
base_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / base29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
base_2028q4_cash_start
2028Q4 / base499.92
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_operating_income, base_2028q4_stock_compensation, base_2028q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
base_2028q4_wc_ratio
2028Q4 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
base_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / base143.35
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
base_2028q4_capacity_deposit
2028Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
base_2028q4_other
2028Q4 / base33.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
base_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / base196.35
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_other_wc, base_2028q4_capacity_deposit, base_2028q4_other).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / base303.57
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_start, base_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / base279.57
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
base_2028q4_license_payments
2028Q4 / base1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
base_2028q4_cash_after_license
2028Q4 / base278.07
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_fcf, base_2028q4_license_payments).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base2,267.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base1,462.76
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base632.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
base_fy2027_stock_compensation
FY2027 / base375.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_stock_compensation, base_2027q2_stock_compensation, base_2027q3_stock_compensation, base_2027q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base537.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base49.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base488.47
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
base_fy2027_license_payments
FY2027 / base8.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_license_payments, base_2027q2_license_payments, base_2027q3_license_payments, base_2027q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_license
FY2027 / base479.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_license, base_2027q2_cash_after_license, base_2027q3_cash_after_license, base_2027q4_cash_after_license).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / base3,332.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / base2,183.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / base1,134.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
base_fy2028_stock_compensation
FY2028 / base468.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_stock_compensation, base_2028q2_stock_compensation, base_2028q3_stock_compensation, base_2028q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / base1,018.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / base84.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_capex, base_2028q2_capex, base_2028q3_capex, base_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / base934.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
base_fy2028_license_payments
FY2028 / base5.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_license_payments, base_2028q2_license_payments, base_2028q3_license_payments, base_2028q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_license
FY2028 / base928.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_license, base_2028q2_cash_after_license, base_2028q3_cash_after_license, base_2028q4_cash_after_license).
Shipment realization versus Q2 midpoint
upside_2027q2_delivery
2027Q2 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside545.90
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times desk delivery case; not a new company range. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue_guide, upside_2027q2_delivery).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / upside65.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside354.83
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2027q2_opex_factor
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / upside201.50
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2027q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside153.33
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q2_stock_compensation
2027Q2 / upside92.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2027q2_cash_start
2027Q2 / upside268.33
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_stock_compensation, upside_2027q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2027q2_wc_ratio
2027Q2 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / upside54.59
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
upside_2027q2_deposit_weight
2027Q2 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
upside_2027q2_capacity_deposit
2027Q2 / upside20.48
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, upside_2027q2_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside95.07
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_other_wc, upside_2027q2_capacity_deposit, upside_2027q2_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside173.26
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_start, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside161.26
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2027q2_license_payments
2027Q2 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2027q2_cash_after_license
2027Q2 / upside159.76
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2027q3_growth
2027Q3 / upside118.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside644.16
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / upside66.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside425.15
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2027q3_opex_factor
2027Q3 / upside107.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / upside215.61
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2027q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside209.54
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q3_stock_compensation
2027Q3 / upside99.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2027q3_cash_start
2027Q3 / upside332.54
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_stock_compensation, upside_2027q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2027q3_wc_ratio
2027Q3 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / upside64.42
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
upside_2027q3_deposit_weight
2027Q3 / upside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
upside_2027q3_capacity_deposit
2027Q3 / upside30.72
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, upside_2027q3_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside118.14
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_other_wc, upside_2027q3_capacity_deposit, upside_2027q3_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside214.41
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_start, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside200.41
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2027q3_license_payments
2027Q3 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2027q3_cash_after_license
2027Q3 / upside199.21
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2027q4_growth
2027Q4 / upside118.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside760.11
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / upside67.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside509.27
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2027q4_opex_factor
2027Q4 / upside114.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / upside230.70
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2027q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside278.58
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2027q4_stock_compensation
2027Q4 / upside106.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2027q4_cash_start
2027Q4 / upside409.58
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_stock_compensation, upside_2027q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2027q4_wc_ratio
2027Q4 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / upside76.01
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_wc_ratio).
Share of committed FY2027 deposit
upside_2027q4_deposit_weight
2027Q4 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Three remaining fiscal-quarter weights sum to one; cash timing is not disclosed.
New supplier-capacity cash deposit
upside_2027q4_capacity_deposit
2027Q4 / upside51.20
USD_millions
derived: Pays the entire additional $102.4M commitment within FY2027 in each case. Formula: multiply(new_capacity_deposits, upside_2027q4_deposit_weight).
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / upside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside153.21
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_other_wc, upside_2027q4_capacity_deposit, upside_2027q4_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside256.37
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_start, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside240.37
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2027q4_license_payments
2027Q4 / upside0.81
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2027q4_cash_after_license
2027Q4 / upside239.55
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / upside112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / upside851.32
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2028q1_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / upside67.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / upside574.64
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2028q1_opex_factor
2028Q1 / upside122.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / upside246.85
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2028q1_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / upside327.80
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q1_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2028q1_stock_compensation
2028Q1 / upside113.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / upside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2028q1_cash_start
2028Q1 / upside466.80
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q1_stock_compensation, upside_2028q1_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2028q1_wc_ratio
2028Q1 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / upside85.13
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
upside_2028q1_capacity_deposit
2028Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2028q1_other
2028Q1 / upside29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / upside134.13
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_other_wc, upside_2028q1_capacity_deposit, upside_2028q1_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / upside332.67
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_start, upside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / upside312.67
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2028q1_license_payments
2028Q1 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2028q1_cash_after_license
2028Q1 / upside311.17
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q1_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / upside979.02
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / upside68.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / upside665.74
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2028q2_opex_factor
2028Q2 / upside131.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / upside264.13
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2028q2_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / upside401.61
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2028q2_stock_compensation
2028Q2 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / upside27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2028q2_cash_start
2028Q2 / upside548.61
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q2_stock_compensation, upside_2028q2_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2028q2_wc_ratio
2028Q2 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / upside97.90
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
upside_2028q2_capacity_deposit
2028Q2 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2028q2_other
2028Q2 / upside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / upside149.90
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_other_wc, upside_2028q2_capacity_deposit, upside_2028q2_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / upside398.71
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_start, upside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / upside376.71
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2028q2_license_payments
2028Q2 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2028q2_cash_after_license
2028Q2 / upside375.21
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q2_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / upside1,125.88
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / upside68.0%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / upside765.60
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2028q3_opex_factor
2028Q3 / upside140.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / upside282.61
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2028q3_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / upside482.98
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2028q3_stock_compensation
2028Q3 / upside127.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2028q3_cash_start
2028Q3 / upside637.98
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q3_stock_compensation, upside_2028q3_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2028q3_wc_ratio
2028Q3 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / upside112.59
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
upside_2028q3_capacity_deposit
2028Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2028q3_other
2028Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / upside167.59
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_other_wc, upside_2028q3_capacity_deposit, upside_2028q3_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / upside470.39
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_start, upside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / upside445.39
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2028q3_license_payments
2028Q3 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2028q3_cash_after_license
2028Q3 / upside443.90
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q3_license_payments).
Sequential shipment revenue multiplier
upside_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk adoption and program-ramp scenario beyond the one-quarter company guide.
Revenue
upside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / upside1,294.76
USD_millions
derived: Prior quarter revenue times explicit sequential growth. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_growth).
GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / upside68.5%
ratio
assumption: Product mix and acquisition amortization included; not the higher non-GAAP margin.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / upside886.91
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times GAAP gross margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_gm).
Expense versus Q2 guidance midpoint
upside_2028q4_opex_factor
2028Q4 / upside150.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / upside302.40
USD_millions
derived: GAAP expense includes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortization. Formula: multiply(q2_opex_guide, upside_2028q4_opex_factor).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / upside584.51
USD_millions
derived: GAAP gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_opex).
Stock compensation expense
upside_2028q4_stock_compensation
2028Q4 / upside134.00
USD_millions
assumption: Noncash expense across all functions; an ownership cost despite the CFO addback.
D&A including acquired-intangible amortization
upside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / upside29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes both depreciation and acquired-intangible amortization; no duplicate addback.
Operating income plus noncash charges
upside_2028q4_cash_start
2028Q4 / upside747.51
USD_millions
derived: Cash bridge before net tax, interest and working capital. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_operating_income, upside_2028q4_stock_compensation, upside_2028q4_da).
Other working-capital cash use / revenue
upside_2028q4_wc_ratio
2028Q4 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working-capital use excluding capacity deposits
upside_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / upside129.48
USD_millions
derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances; supplier-capacity deposits excluded here. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_wc_ratio).
Additional supplier-capacity cash deposits
upside_2028q4_capacity_deposit
2028Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk FY2028 growth-funding assumption, beyond the disclosed $102.4M FY2027 commitment; no deposit refund assumed.
Net cash tax, interest and other uses
upside_2028q4_other
2028Q4 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Positive is cash use after interest income; no repetition of acquisition-related tax benefits.
Net tax/interest, working capital and deposits
upside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / upside187.48
USD_millions
derived: Gross manufacturing commitments are not added on top of these inventory and deposit cash assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_other_wc, upside_2028q4_capacity_deposit, upside_2028q4_other).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / upside560.04
USD_millions
derived: Includes operating working-capital supplier deposits; excludes acquisition and license financing payments. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_start, upside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Research, test and other fixed assets; supplier refundable deposits are separate operating cash uses.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / upside532.04
USD_millions
derived: Does not capture acquisitions, license financing payments or RSU withholding cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex).
Technology-license financing payments
upside_2028q4_license_payments
2028Q4 / upside1.50
USD_millions
assumption: Quarterly timing assumption; remaining FY2027 sums to disclosed $3.513M and FY2028 to $5.982M commitments.
Cash after PP&E and license payments
upside_2028q4_cash_after_license
2028Q4 / upside530.54
USD_millions
derived: Still excludes acquisition cash, RSU withholding, contingent payouts and equity financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_fcf, upside_2028q4_license_payments).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside2,429.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside1,598.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside762.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
upside_fy2027_stock_compensation
FY2027 / upside384.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_stock_compensation, upside_2027q2_stock_compensation, upside_2027q3_stock_compensation, upside_2027q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside734.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside49.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside684.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_license_payments
FY2027 / upside8.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_license_payments, upside_2027q2_license_payments, upside_2027q3_license_payments, upside_2027q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_license
FY2027 / upside676.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_license, upside_2027q2_cash_after_license, upside_2027q3_cash_after_license, upside_2027q4_cash_after_license).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / upside4,250.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / upside2,892.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / upside1,796.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income).
Stock compensation expense ($M)
upside_fy2028_stock_compensation
FY2028 / upside494.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_stock_compensation, upside_2028q2_stock_compensation, upside_2028q3_stock_compensation, upside_2028q4_stock_compensation).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / upside1,761.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / upside95.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_capex, upside_2028q2_capex, upside_2028q3_capex, upside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / upside1,666.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q4_fcf).
Financing-classified license payments ($M)
upside_fy2028_license_payments
FY2028 / upside5.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_license_payments, upside_2028q2_license_payments, upside_2028q3_license_payments, upside_2028q4_license_payments).
Cash after PP&E and license payments ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_license
FY2028 / upside1,660.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_license, upside_2028q2_cash_after_license, upside_2028q3_cash_after_license, upside_2028q4_cash_after_license).

Model boundaries

Connectivity growth after funding capacity and ownership costs

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can shipment growth produce durable cash while funding suppliers and absorbing compensation and acquisition claims?

Q1 GAAP gross profit was $309.1M and operating income $120.7M. GAAP expense is materially higher than the adjusted presentation: next-quarter operating expense guidance is $199M-$204M versus $100M-$105M non-GAAP. CFO of $90.2M less $7.3M PP&E was $82.9M, while $5.2M technology-license financing payments and the $735.6M DustPhotonics net acquisition payment fall outside that FCF measure. August cash and short-term investments totaled $764.3M. Existing supplier-capacity deposits were $88.4M, and a subsequent agreement requires another $102.4M during FY2027. The acquisition includes $300M contingent equity consideration and a $10M contingent liability at recorded fair value; they are not a $310M cash bill. End-customer concentration is distinct from direct contracting-customer concentration and no customer identities are inferred.

The competing explanation

Large customers can slow or change connectivity architectures after Credo commits capacity and inventory. High cash conversion can also rely on noncash stock-compensation addbacks while shareholders absorb dilution. Optical acquisitions add integration and amortization risks before their financial contribution becomes material.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First sourced operating and cash scenarios using September results. Includes subsequent supplier deposits, acquisition cash, stock compensation and license payments outside conventional FCF.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed strong, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-1.8+0.0+2.051%
5 sessions-5.8+0.0+4.850%
10 sessions-7.6+0.2+7.552%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

Scorecard: 1 note scored; 0 inside the 5-session band (0% coverage)

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/crdo-growth-expectations-20260914): Record September 14's actual completed session, then September 18 and September 25 as five- and ten-session observation windows, counting today as session one

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  3. [3] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  7. [7] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  10. [10] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  11. [11] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  14. [14] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  15. [15] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  19. [19] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  22. [22] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-24-049786, 10-Q filed 2024-12-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-25-011738, 10-Q filed 2025-03-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  26. [26] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001807794-25-000021, 10-Q filed 2025-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  27. [27] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  30. [30] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  31. [31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  32. [32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  33. [33] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  34. [34] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  35. [35] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  36. [36] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  37. [37] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-054549, 10-Q filed 2025-12-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  39. [39] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-014017, 10-Q filed 2026-03-03; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  40. [40] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-043303, 10-K filed 2026-06-15; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json
  41. [41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-060111, 10-Q filed 2026-09-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:57:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001807794.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T18:57:31.854998+00:00 · authored ad115dd7136e · generated 031eea942d6b · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard