ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · FINANCIALS & FINTECH

$CHYM

Chime Financial, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 6199 · CIK 1795586 · revision 10 as of 2026-09-26

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Research status

Evidence awaiting review · 40 pending evidence leads

Financial accounts through
2026-06-30
Authored update
2026-09-20
Source scan
Full model review
Not recorded
Latest event review
Not recorded
Oldest pending lead
Open evidence leads
  • US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers - renaissancecapital.com
  • Top Ionic Digital (IOND) Competitors 2026 - MarketBeat
  • Is Chime Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold After Nearly Doubling From Its 52-Week Low? - The Globe and Mail
  • Price review: -7.0% latest session, -17.2% five sessions
  • Is Chime Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold After Nearly Doubling From Its 52-Week Low? - Yahoo Finance

Leads require verification; they are not established material changes.

A published model and a successful scan do not establish a completed review. Status describes current monitoring; every promotion requires fresh checks.

Research status JSON

Business

Chime provides payments, liquidity, credit and related financial services through its consumer platform and partner banks. Interchange, transfer fees and lending-related services monetize member activity. Its proposed Stride Bank acquisition would add a regulated bank subsidiary, subject to approvals.

Three drivers

  1. Member purchase volume, card mix and payment yield
  2. Platform monetization after credit and dispute losses
  3. Loan funding, corporate cash and conditional bank acquisition

Thesis

Our view

Growing member activity and platform adoption are improving earnings, but lending losses, funding and the proposed bank purchase determine the cash retained for shareholders.

What changes it

Track member/payment activity, MyPay and Instant Loan losses, loan investment and the regulatory closing path.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q3
2024-09-30
2025Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q2
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)421.91475.2†2518.73528.14543.51596.4†2647.43669.84
Gross profit ($M)368.45419.2†6458.37461.08474.15530.2†6580.37594.98
Operating income ($M)-30.69-27.1†109.111-930.612-64.79-53.8†1046.21121.312
Net income ($M)-22.013-19.6†1412.915-923.415-54.713-44.8†1453.51527.915
EPS, diluted ($)-0.3416—0.0017-7.2918-0.1516—0.13170.0718
Diluted shares (M)65.119—65.920126.621371.819—400.520393.421
Cash ($M)270.822337.723318.224868.325445.022466.325607.724536.025
Long-term debt ($M)————————
Cash from operations ($M)-24.9†2618.2†27-25.82828.5†2917.5†2632.6†2787.528207.5†29
Capex ($M)3.1†30———2.1†30———
Free cash flow ($M)-28.0†31———15.4†31———

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q3705.0—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4742.8—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1790.0—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2825.0—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Member payments, lending losses and the proposed bank purchase

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-20 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Drive payments from purchase volume and net yield. Scale platform revenue separately with membership and monetization. Deduct processing cost and explicit MyPay/other risk losses before corporate expense. Bridge adjusted EBITDA to operating income, operating cash, net loan funding and capital spending. The pending Stride price is a separate conditional cash claim; bank balance-sheet consolidation and synergies are excluded until supportable.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Revised Q3 revenue outlook midpoint2026Q3705.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Revised FY2026 revenue outlook midpointFY20262,765.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Revised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpointFY2026485.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Reported transaction profitH1 2026982.99reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
Reported adj ebitdaH1 2026220.22reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
Reported cfoH1 2026294.96reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
Reported net loan fundingH1 202653.90reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
H1 cash after loan investment and assetsH1 2026223.67derived. No deduction for discretionary stock repurchases.
Cash plus marketable securitiesJune 30, 20261,063.42derived. Excludes restricted cash and partner member deposits.
restrictedJune 2026 / H165.01reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
h1 buybacksJune 2026 / H1222.07reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-06
Conditional Stride purchase priceProposed H1 2027590.00reported. Cash consideration at closing, subject to required approvals; not current debt. Source · 2026-09-08

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Payments revenue ($M)Platform revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Conditional Stride cash price ($M)Loan purchases less repayments ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after loans and capex ($M)Transaction profit proxy ($M)Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
2026Q38.6810.00655.65418.50237.1522.680.0049.00-59.32-50.32450.41-50.32
2026Q426.0211.00690.85437.10253.7547.020.0056.00-39.98-40.98475.92-40.98
2027Q147.8612.00734.70446.40288.3075.860.0063.00-16.14-27.14506.54-27.14
2027Q237.4913.00767.25465.00302.2575.490.0070.00-21.51-45.51527.09-45.51
FY2026329.6538.392,663.651,718.27945.38289.910.00158.90-31.82132.361,909.33132.36
FY2027195.5854.003,185.251,920.451,264.80358.58590.00294.00-39.42-152.422,194.97-742.42

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Payments revenue ($M)Platform revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Conditional Stride cash price ($M)Loan purchases less repayments ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after loans and capex ($M)Transaction profit proxy ($M)Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
2026Q3104.5010.00705.00450.00255.00118.500.0035.0036.5059.50518.2559.50
2026Q4125.2811.00742.85470.00272.84146.280.0040.0059.2874.28547.1374.28
2027Q1152.0012.00790.00480.00310.00180.000.0045.0088.0095.00582.5095.00
2027Q2147.0013.00825.00500.00325.00185.00590.0050.0088.0084.00607.05-506.00
FY2026524.7438.392,765.001,782.67982.33485.000.00128.90163.27357.452,048.38357.45
FY2027647.0054.003,425.002,065.001,360.00810.00590.00210.00412.00383.002,526.25-207.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Payments revenue ($M)Platform revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Conditional Stride cash price ($M)Loan purchases less repayments ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Cash after loans and capex ($M)Transaction profit proxy ($M)Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
2026Q3144.8610.00762.00481.50280.50158.860.0040.2576.8694.61570.6094.61
2026Q4168.5011.00803.03502.90300.13189.500.0046.00102.50111.50602.38111.50
2027Q1199.3112.00854.60513.60341.00227.31590.0051.75135.31135.56641.88-454.44
2027Q2196.5113.00892.50535.00357.50234.510.0057.50137.51126.01669.23126.01
FY2026608.3238.392,882.181,847.071,035.11568.580.00140.15246.85429.782,155.97429.78
FY2027854.0254.003,705.552,209.551,496.001,017.02590.00241.50619.02558.522,784.76-31.48
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
Reported revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared1,317.15
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported payments
h1_payments
H1 2026 / shared862.67
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported platform
h1_platform
H1 2026 / shared454.48
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported transaction profit
h1_transaction_profit
H1 2026 / shared982.99
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported adj ebitda
h1_adj_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared220.22
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared67.48
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared294.96
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported net loan funding
h1_net_loan_funding
H1 2026 / shared53.90
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Reported capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared17.39
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
Loans and assets
h1_funding_uses
H1 2026 / shared71.29
USD_millions
derived: Net loan funding is investing cash use. Formula: sum(h1_net_loan_funding, h1_capex).
H1 cash after loan investment and assets
h1_cash_after_funding
H1 2026 / shared223.67
USD_millions
derived: No deduction for discretionary stock repurchases. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_funding_uses).
H1 Stride acquisition cash
h1_acquisition_cash
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: The agreement was announced September 8; no Stride closing in H1. Primary source · 2026-09-08
H1 cash after claims
h1_cash_after_acquisition
H1 2026 / shared223.67
USD_millions
derived: Before buybacks. Formula: subtract(h1_cash_after_funding, h1_acquisition_cash).
cash
cash
June 2026 / H1 / shared536.04
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
marketable securities
marketable_securities
June 2026 / H1 / shared527.38
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
restricted
restricted
June 2026 / H1 / shared65.01
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
h1 buybacks
h1_buybacks
June 2026 / H1 / shared222.07
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-06
q2 platform
q2_platform
June 2026 / H1 / shared239.74
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q2 payment volume
q2_payment_volume
June 2026 / H1 / shared38,000.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q2 payments
q2_payments
June 2026 / H1 / shared430.03
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q2 mypay originations
q2_mypay_originations
June 2026 / H1 / shared4,500.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Conditional Stride purchase price
stride_price
Proposed H1 2027 / shared590.00
USD_millions
reported: Cash consideration at closing, subject to required approvals; not current debt. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Cash plus marketable securities
liquidity
June 30, 2026 / shared1,063.42
USD_millions
derived: Excludes restricted cash and partner member deposits. Formula: sum(cash, marketable_securities).
Revised Q3 revenue outlook low
q3_revenue_guide_low
2026Q3 / shared705.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Revised Q3 revenue outlook high
q3_revenue_guide_high
2026Q3 / shared705.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
Revised Q3 revenue outlook endpoint sum
q3_revenue_guide_sum
2026Q3 / shared1,410.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_guide_low, q3_revenue_guide_high).
Revised Q3 revenue outlook midpoint
q3_revenue_guide
2026Q3 / shared705.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_guide_sum, two).
Revised FY2026 revenue outlook low
fy26_revenue_guide_low
FY2026 / shared2,760.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Revised FY2026 revenue outlook high
fy26_revenue_guide_high
FY2026 / shared2,770.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Revised FY2026 revenue outlook endpoint sum
fy26_revenue_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared5,530.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_revenue_guide_low, fy26_revenue_guide_high).
Revised FY2026 revenue outlook midpoint
fy26_revenue_guide
FY2026 / shared2,765.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_revenue_guide_sum, two).
Revised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA low
fy26_ebitda_guide_low
FY2026 / shared481.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Revised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA high
fy26_ebitda_guide_high
FY2026 / shared489.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Revised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA endpoint sum
fy26_ebitda_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared970.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_ebitda_guide_low, fy26_ebitda_guide_high).
Revised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint
fy26_ebitda_guide
FY2026 / shared485.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
Purchase volume
downside_2026q3_purchase_volume
2026Q3 / downside37,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2026q3_payment_yield
2026Q3 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2026q3_payments
2026Q3 / downside418.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_purchase_volume, downside_2026q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2026q3_member_index
2026Q3 / downside102.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2026q3_platform_monetization
2026Q3 / downside96.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2026q3_platform
2026Q3 / downside237.15
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2026q3_member_index, downside_2026q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside655.65
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_payments, downside_2026q3_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2026q3_gross_margin
2026Q3 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside583.53
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2026q3_mypay_originations
2026Q3 / downside4,464.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q3 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2026q3_mypay_losses
2026Q3 / downside62.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mypay_originations, downside_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2026q3_other_risk
2026Q3 / downside70.62
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2026q3_risk
2026Q3 / downside133.12
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_mypay_losses, downside_2026q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2026q3_transaction_profit
2026Q3 / downside450.41
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2026q3_adjusted_costs
2026Q3 / downside427.73
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside22.68
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_transaction_profit, downside_2026q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside72.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q3_cash_adjustments
2026Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-59.32
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / downside30.68
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_interest_tax
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2026q3_wc
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside22.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_adjustments, downside_2026q3_cash_interest_tax, downside_2026q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside8.68
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_earnings, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2026q3_net_loan_funding
2026Q3 / downside49.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2026q3_investment
2026Q3 / downside59.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_net_loan_funding, downside_2026q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / downside-50.32
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2026q3_stride_closing
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2026q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q3 / downside-50.32
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
downside_2026q4_purchase_volume
2026Q4 / downside39,060.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2026q4_payment_yield
2026Q4 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2026q4_payments
2026Q4 / downside437.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_purchase_volume, downside_2026q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2026q4_member_index
2026Q4 / downside105.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2026q4_platform_monetization
2026Q4 / downside100.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2026q4_platform
2026Q4 / downside253.75
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2026q4_member_index, downside_2026q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside690.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_payments, downside_2026q4_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2026q4_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside614.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2026q4_mypay_originations
2026Q4 / downside4,650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q4 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2026q4_mypay_losses
2026Q4 / downside65.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mypay_originations, downside_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2026q4_other_risk
2026Q4 / downside73.83
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2026q4_risk
2026Q4 / downside138.93
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_mypay_losses, downside_2026q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2026q4_transaction_profit
2026Q4 / downside475.92
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2026q4_adjusted_costs
2026Q4 / downside428.91
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside47.02
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_transaction_profit, downside_2026q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_cash_adjustments
2026Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / downside87.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-39.98
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / downside55.02
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_interest_tax
2026Q4 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2026q4_wc
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside29.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_adjustments, downside_2026q4_cash_interest_tax, downside_2026q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside26.02
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_earnings, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2026q4_net_loan_funding
2026Q4 / downside56.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2026q4_investment
2026Q4 / downside67.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_net_loan_funding, downside_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / downside-40.98
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2026q4_stride_closing
2026Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2026q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q4 / downside-40.98
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
downside_2027q1_purchase_volume
2027Q1 / downside39,525.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2027q1_payment_yield
2027Q1 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2027q1_payments
2027Q1 / downside446.40
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_purchase_volume, downside_2027q1_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2027q1_member_index
2027Q1 / downside107.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2027q1_platform_monetization
2027Q1 / downside111.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2027q1_platform
2027Q1 / downside288.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2027q1_member_index, downside_2027q1_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside734.70
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_payments, downside_2027q1_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside653.88
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2027q1_mypay_originations
2027Q1 / downside5,022.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q1 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2027q1_mypay_losses
2027Q1 / downside70.31
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mypay_originations, downside_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2027q1_other_risk
2027Q1 / downside77.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2027q1_risk
2027Q1 / downside147.35
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_mypay_losses, downside_2027q1_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2027q1_transaction_profit
2027Q1 / downside506.54
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2027q1_adjusted_costs
2027Q1 / downside430.68
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside75.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_transaction_profit, downside_2027q1_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside92.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-16.14
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / downside83.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_interest_tax
2027Q1 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q1_wc
2027Q1 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside36.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q1_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q1_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside47.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_earnings, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2027q1_net_loan_funding
2027Q1 / downside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2027q1_investment
2027Q1 / downside75.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q1_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / downside-27.14
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2027q1_stride_closing
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2027q1_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q1 / downside-27.14
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
downside_2027q2_purchase_volume
2027Q2 / downside40,920.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2027q2_payment_yield
2027Q2 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2027q2_payments
2027Q2 / downside465.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_purchase_volume, downside_2027q2_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2027q2_member_index
2027Q2 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2027q2_platform_monetization
2027Q2 / downside114.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2027q2_platform
2027Q2 / downside302.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2027q2_member_index, downside_2027q2_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside767.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_payments, downside_2027q2_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside682.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2027q2_mypay_originations
2027Q2 / downside5,394.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q2 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2027q2_mypay_losses
2027Q2 / downside75.52
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mypay_originations, downside_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2027q2_other_risk
2027Q2 / downside80.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2027q2_risk
2027Q2 / downside155.77
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_mypay_losses, downside_2027q2_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2027q2_transaction_profit
2027Q2 / downside527.09
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2027q2_adjusted_costs
2027Q2 / downside451.59
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside75.49
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_transaction_profit, downside_2027q2_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside84.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside97.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-21.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / downside80.49
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_interest_tax
2027Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q2_wc
2027Q2 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside43.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q2_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q2_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside37.49
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_earnings, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2027q2_net_loan_funding
2027Q2 / downside70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2027q2_investment
2027Q2 / downside83.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q2_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / downside-45.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2027q2_stride_closing
2027Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2027q2_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q2 / downside-45.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
downside_2027q3_purchase_volume
2027Q3 / downside43,245.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2027q3_payment_yield
2027Q3 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2027q3_payments
2027Q3 / downside492.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_purchase_volume, downside_2027q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2027q3_member_index
2027Q3 / downside112.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2027q3_platform_monetization
2027Q3 / downside120.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2027q3_platform
2027Q3 / downside325.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2027q3_member_index, downside_2027q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside818.40
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_payments, downside_2027q3_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside728.38
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2027q3_mypay_originations
2027Q3 / downside5,766.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q3 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2027q3_mypay_losses
2027Q3 / downside80.72
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mypay_originations, downside_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2027q3_other_risk
2027Q3 / downside83.46
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2027q3_risk
2027Q3 / downside164.18
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_mypay_losses, downside_2027q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2027q3_transaction_profit
2027Q3 / downside564.19
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2027q3_adjusted_costs
2027Q3 / downside470.16
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside94.03
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_transaction_profit, downside_2027q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside88.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside102.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-7.97
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / downside99.03
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_interest_tax
2027Q3 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q3_wc
2027Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q3_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside49.03
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_earnings, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2027q3_net_loan_funding
2027Q3 / downside77.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2027q3_investment
2027Q3 / downside91.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / downside-41.97
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2027q3_stride_closing
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2027q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q3 / downside-41.97
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
downside_2027q4_purchase_volume
2027Q4 / downside45,105.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
downside_2027q4_payment_yield
2027Q4 / downside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
downside_2027q4_payments
2027Q4 / downside516.15
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_purchase_volume, downside_2027q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
downside_2027q4_member_index
2027Q4 / downside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
downside_2027q4_platform_monetization
2027Q4 / downside126.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
downside_2027q4_platform
2027Q4 / downside348.75
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, downside_2027q4_member_index, downside_2027q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside864.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_payments, downside_2027q4_platform).
Gross margin
downside_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside769.76
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
downside_2027q4_mypay_originations
2027Q4 / downside6,138.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
downside_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q4 / downside1.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
downside_2027q4_mypay_losses
2027Q4 / downside85.93
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mypay_originations, downside_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
downside_2027q4_other_risk
2027Q4 / downside86.67
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
downside_2027q4_risk
2027Q4 / downside172.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_mypay_losses, downside_2027q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
downside_2027q4_transaction_profit
2027Q4 / downside597.16
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
downside_2027q4_adjusted_costs
2027Q4 / downside483.96
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside113.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_transaction_profit, downside_2027q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside92.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside107.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside6.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
downside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
downside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / downside118.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_interest_tax
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
downside_2027q4_wc
2027Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside57.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments, downside_2027q4_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside61.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_earnings, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
downside_2027q4_net_loan_funding
2027Q4 / downside84.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
downside_2027q4_investment
2027Q4 / downside99.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / downside-37.80
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
downside_2027q4_stride_closing
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / downside590.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, downside_2027q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
downside_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q4 / downside-627.80
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside2,663.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_payments
FY2026 / downside1,718.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_payments, downside_2026q3_payments, downside_2026q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_platform
FY2026 / downside945.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_platform, downside_2026q3_platform, downside_2026q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_transaction_profit
FY2026 / downside1,909.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_transaction_profit, downside_2026q3_transaction_profit, downside_2026q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / downside289.91
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-31.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside329.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
downside_fy2026_net_loan_funding
FY2026 / downside158.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_loan_funding, downside_2026q3_net_loan_funding, downside_2026q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside38.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / downside132.36
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
downside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_acquisition
FY2026 / downside132.36
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_acquisition, downside_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition, downside_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside3,185.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_payments
FY2027 / downside1,920.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_payments, downside_2027q2_payments, downside_2027q3_payments, downside_2027q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_platform
FY2027 / downside1,264.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_platform, downside_2027q2_platform, downside_2027q3_platform, downside_2027q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_transaction_profit
FY2027 / downside2,194.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_transaction_profit, downside_2027q2_transaction_profit, downside_2027q3_transaction_profit, downside_2027q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / downside358.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-39.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside195.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
downside_fy2027_net_loan_funding
FY2027 / downside294.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q2_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q3_net_loan_funding, downside_2027q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside54.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / downside-152.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
downside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / downside590.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_acquisition
FY2027 / downside-742.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition, downside_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition, downside_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition, downside_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition).
Purchase volume
base_2026q3_purchase_volume
2026Q3 / base40,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2026q3_payment_yield
2026Q3 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2026q3_payments
2026Q3 / base450.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_purchase_volume, base_2026q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2026q3_member_index
2026Q3 / base102.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2026q3_platform_monetization
2026Q3 / base103.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2026q3_platform
2026Q3 / base255.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2026q3_member_index, base_2026q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base705.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_payments, base_2026q3_platform).
Gross margin
base_2026q3_gross_margin
2026Q3 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base627.45
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2026q3_mypay_originations
2026Q3 / base4,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q3 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2026q3_mypay_losses
2026Q3 / base43.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mypay_originations, base_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2026q3_other_risk
2026Q3 / base66.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2026q3_risk
2026Q3 / base109.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_mypay_losses, base_2026q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2026q3_transaction_profit
2026Q3 / base518.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2026q3_adjusted_costs
2026Q3 / base399.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / base118.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_transaction_profit, base_2026q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base72.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q3_cash_adjustments
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base36.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / base126.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2026q3_cash_interest_tax
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2026q3_wc
2026Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_adjustments, base_2026q3_cash_interest_tax, base_2026q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base104.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_earnings, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2026q3_net_loan_funding
2026Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2026q3_investment
2026Q3 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_net_loan_funding, base_2026q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / base59.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2026q3_stride_closing
2026Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2026q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q3 / base59.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_after_funding, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
base_2026q4_purchase_volume
2026Q4 / base42,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2026q4_payment_yield
2026Q4 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2026q4_payments
2026Q4 / base470.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_purchase_volume, base_2026q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2026q4_member_index
2026Q4 / base105.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2026q4_platform_monetization
2026Q4 / base108.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2026q4_platform
2026Q4 / base272.84
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2026q4_member_index, base_2026q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base742.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_payments, base_2026q4_platform).
Gross margin
base_2026q4_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base661.13
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2026q4_mypay_originations
2026Q4 / base5,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q4 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2026q4_mypay_losses
2026Q4 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mypay_originations, base_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2026q4_other_risk
2026Q4 / base69.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2026q4_risk
2026Q4 / base114.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_mypay_losses, base_2026q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2026q4_transaction_profit
2026Q4 / base547.13
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2026q4_adjusted_costs
2026Q4 / base400.85
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / base146.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_transaction_profit, base_2026q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_cash_adjustments
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / base87.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base59.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / base154.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2026q4_cash_interest_tax
2026Q4 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2026q4_wc
2026Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base29.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_adjustments, base_2026q4_cash_interest_tax, base_2026q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base125.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_earnings, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2026q4_net_loan_funding
2026Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2026q4_investment
2026Q4 / base51.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_net_loan_funding, base_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / base74.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2026q4_stride_closing
2026Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2026q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q4 / base74.28
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_after_funding, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
base_2027q1_purchase_volume
2027Q1 / base42,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2027q1_payment_yield
2027Q1 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2027q1_payments
2027Q1 / base480.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_purchase_volume, base_2027q1_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2027q1_member_index
2027Q1 / base107.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2027q1_platform_monetization
2027Q1 / base120.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2027q1_platform
2027Q1 / base310.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2027q1_member_index, base_2027q1_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base790.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_payments, base_2027q1_platform).
Gross margin
base_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base703.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2027q1_mypay_originations
2027Q1 / base5,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q1 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2027q1_mypay_losses
2027Q1 / base48.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mypay_originations, base_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2027q1_other_risk
2027Q1 / base72.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2027q1_risk
2027Q1 / base120.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_mypay_losses, base_2027q1_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2027q1_transaction_profit
2027Q1 / base582.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2027q1_adjusted_costs
2027Q1 / base402.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_transaction_profit, base_2027q1_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / base92.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base88.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / base188.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2027q1_cash_interest_tax
2027Q1 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2027q1_wc
2027Q1 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base36.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_adjustments, base_2027q1_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q1_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base152.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_earnings, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2027q1_net_loan_funding
2027Q1 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2027q1_investment
2027Q1 / base57.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_loan_funding, base_2027q1_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / base95.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2027q1_stride_closing
2027Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2027q1_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q1 / base95.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_after_funding, base_2027q1_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
base_2027q2_purchase_volume
2027Q2 / base44,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2027q2_payment_yield
2027Q2 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2027q2_payments
2027Q2 / base500.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_purchase_volume, base_2027q2_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2027q2_member_index
2027Q2 / base110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2027q2_platform_monetization
2027Q2 / base123.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2027q2_platform
2027Q2 / base325.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2027q2_member_index, base_2027q2_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base825.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_payments, base_2027q2_platform).
Gross margin
base_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base734.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2027q2_mypay_originations
2027Q2 / base5,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q2 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2027q2_mypay_losses
2027Q2 / base52.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mypay_originations, base_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2027q2_other_risk
2027Q2 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2027q2_risk
2027Q2 / base127.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_mypay_losses, base_2027q2_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2027q2_transaction_profit
2027Q2 / base607.05
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2027q2_adjusted_costs
2027Q2 / base422.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / base185.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_transaction_profit, base_2027q2_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base84.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / base97.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base88.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / base190.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2027q2_cash_interest_tax
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2027q2_wc
2027Q2 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base43.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_adjustments, base_2027q2_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q2_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base147.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_earnings, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2027q2_net_loan_funding
2027Q2 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2027q2_investment
2027Q2 / base63.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_net_loan_funding, base_2027q2_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / base84.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2027q2_stride_closing
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / base590.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2027q2_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q2 / base-506.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_after_funding, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
base_2027q3_purchase_volume
2027Q3 / base46,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2027q3_payment_yield
2027Q3 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2027q3_payments
2027Q3 / base530.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_purchase_volume, base_2027q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2027q3_member_index
2027Q3 / base112.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2027q3_platform_monetization
2027Q3 / base129.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2027q3_platform
2027Q3 / base350.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2027q3_member_index, base_2027q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base880.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_payments, base_2027q3_platform).
Gross margin
base_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base783.20
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2027q3_mypay_originations
2027Q3 / base6,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q3 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2027q3_mypay_losses
2027Q3 / base55.80
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mypay_originations, base_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2027q3_other_risk
2027Q3 / base78.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2027q3_risk
2027Q3 / base133.80
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_mypay_losses, base_2027q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2027q3_transaction_profit
2027Q3 / base649.40
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2027q3_adjusted_costs
2027Q3 / base439.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_transaction_profit, base_2027q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base88.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / base102.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base108.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / base215.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2027q3_cash_interest_tax
2027Q3 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2027q3_wc
2027Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_adjustments, base_2027q3_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base165.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_earnings, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2027q3_net_loan_funding
2027Q3 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2027q3_investment
2027Q3 / base69.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_net_loan_funding, base_2027q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / base96.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2027q3_stride_closing
2027Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2027q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q3 / base96.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_after_funding, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
base_2027q4_purchase_volume
2027Q4 / base48,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
base_2027q4_payment_yield
2027Q4 / base1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
base_2027q4_payments
2027Q4 / base555.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_purchase_volume, base_2027q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
base_2027q4_member_index
2027Q4 / base115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
base_2027q4_platform_monetization
2027Q4 / base136.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
base_2027q4_platform
2027Q4 / base375.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, base_2027q4_member_index, base_2027q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base930.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_payments, base_2027q4_platform).
Gross margin
base_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base827.70
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
base_2027q4_mypay_originations
2027Q4 / base6,600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
base_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q4 / base0.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
base_2027q4_mypay_losses
2027Q4 / base59.40
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mypay_originations, base_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
base_2027q4_other_risk
2027Q4 / base81.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
base_2027q4_risk
2027Q4 / base140.40
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_mypay_losses, base_2027q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
base_2027q4_transaction_profit
2027Q4 / base687.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
base_2027q4_adjusted_costs
2027Q4 / base452.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / base235.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_transaction_profit, base_2027q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base92.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / base107.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base128.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
base_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
base_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / base240.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
base_2027q4_cash_interest_tax
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
base_2027q4_wc
2027Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base57.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_adjustments, base_2027q4_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base183.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_earnings, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
base_2027q4_net_loan_funding
2027Q4 / base60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
base_2027q4_investment
2027Q4 / base75.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_net_loan_funding, base_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
base_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / base108.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
base_2027q4_stride_closing
2027Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
base_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, base_2027q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
base_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q4 / base108.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_after_funding, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base2,765.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_payments
FY2026 / base1,782.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_payments, base_2026q3_payments, base_2026q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_platform
FY2026 / base982.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_platform, base_2026q3_platform, base_2026q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_transaction_profit
FY2026 / base2,048.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_transaction_profit, base_2026q3_transaction_profit, base_2026q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / base485.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base163.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base524.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
base_fy2026_net_loan_funding
FY2026 / base128.90
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_loan_funding, base_2026q3_net_loan_funding, base_2026q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base38.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / base357.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, base_2026q3_cash_after_funding, base_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
base_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_acquisition
FY2026 / base357.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_acquisition, base_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition, base_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base3,425.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_payments
FY2027 / base2,065.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_payments, base_2027q2_payments, base_2027q3_payments, base_2027q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_platform
FY2027 / base1,360.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_platform, base_2027q2_platform, base_2027q3_platform, base_2027q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_transaction_profit
FY2027 / base2,526.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_transaction_profit, base_2027q2_transaction_profit, base_2027q3_transaction_profit, base_2027q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / base810.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base412.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base647.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
base_fy2027_net_loan_funding
FY2027 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_loan_funding, base_2027q2_net_loan_funding, base_2027q3_net_loan_funding, base_2027q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base54.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / base383.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_funding, base_2027q2_cash_after_funding, base_2027q3_cash_after_funding, base_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
base_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / base590.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_acquisition
FY2027 / base-207.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition, base_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition, base_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition, base_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition).
Purchase volume
upside_2026q3_purchase_volume
2026Q3 / upside42,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2026q3_payment_yield
2026Q3 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2026q3_payments
2026Q3 / upside481.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_purchase_volume, upside_2026q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2026q3_member_index
2026Q3 / upside102.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2026q3_platform_monetization
2026Q3 / upside114.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2026q3_platform
2026Q3 / upside280.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2026q3_member_index, upside_2026q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside762.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_payments, upside_2026q3_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2026q3_gross_margin
2026Q3 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside678.18
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2026q3_mypay_originations
2026Q3 / upside5,280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q3 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2026q3_mypay_losses
2026Q3 / upside39.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mypay_originations, upside_2026q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2026q3_other_risk
2026Q3 / upside67.98
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2026q3_risk
2026Q3 / upside107.58
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_mypay_losses, upside_2026q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2026q3_transaction_profit
2026Q3 / upside570.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2026q3_adjusted_costs
2026Q3 / upside411.74
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside158.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_transaction_profit, upside_2026q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside72.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q3_cash_adjustments
2026Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / upside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside76.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2026q3_interest_income
2026Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / upside166.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_interest_tax
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2026q3_wc
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_adjustments, upside_2026q3_cash_interest_tax, upside_2026q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside144.86
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_earnings, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2026q3_net_loan_funding
2026Q3 / upside40.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2026q3_investment
2026Q3 / upside50.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_net_loan_funding, upside_2026q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding
2026Q3 / upside94.61
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2026q3_stride_closing
2026Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2026q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q3 / upside94.61
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
upside_2026q4_purchase_volume
2026Q4 / upside44,940.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2026q4_payment_yield
2026Q4 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2026q4_payments
2026Q4 / upside502.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_purchase_volume, upside_2026q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2026q4_member_index
2026Q4 / upside105.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2026q4_platform_monetization
2026Q4 / upside119.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2026q4_platform
2026Q4 / upside300.13
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2026q4_member_index, upside_2026q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside803.03
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_payments, upside_2026q4_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2026q4_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside714.70
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2026q4_mypay_originations
2026Q4 / upside5,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate
2026Q4 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2026q4_mypay_losses
2026Q4 / upside41.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mypay_originations, upside_2026q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2026q4_other_risk
2026Q4 / upside71.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2026q4_risk
2026Q4 / upside112.32
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_mypay_losses, upside_2026q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2026q4_transaction_profit
2026Q4 / upside602.38
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2026q4_adjusted_costs
2026Q4 / upside412.87
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside189.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_transaction_profit, upside_2026q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside76.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_cash_adjustments
2026Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / upside87.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside102.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2026q4_interest_income
2026Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / upside197.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_interest_tax
2026Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2026q4_wc
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside29.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_adjustments, upside_2026q4_cash_interest_tax, upside_2026q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside168.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_earnings, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2026q4_net_loan_funding
2026Q4 / upside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2026q4_investment
2026Q4 / upside57.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_net_loan_funding, upside_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding
2026Q4 / upside111.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2026q4_stride_closing
2026Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2026q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition
2026Q4 / upside111.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
upside_2027q1_purchase_volume
2027Q1 / upside45,475.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2027q1_payment_yield
2027Q1 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2027q1_payments
2027Q1 / upside513.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_purchase_volume, upside_2027q1_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2027q1_member_index
2027Q1 / upside107.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2027q1_platform_monetization
2027Q1 / upside132.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2027q1_platform
2027Q1 / upside341.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2027q1_member_index, upside_2027q1_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside854.60
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_payments, upside_2027q1_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2027q1_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside760.59
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2027q1_mypay_originations
2027Q1 / upside5,940.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q1 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2027q1_mypay_losses
2027Q1 / upside44.55
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mypay_originations, upside_2027q1_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2027q1_other_risk
2027Q1 / upside74.16
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2027q1_risk
2027Q1 / upside118.71
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_mypay_losses, upside_2027q1_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2027q1_transaction_profit
2027Q1 / upside641.88
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2027q1_adjusted_costs
2027Q1 / upside414.57
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside227.31
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_transaction_profit, upside_2027q1_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside92.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside135.31
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2027q1_interest_income
2027Q1 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / upside235.31
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_interest_tax
2027Q1 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q1_wc
2027Q1 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside36.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q1_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q1_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside199.31
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_earnings, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2027q1_net_loan_funding
2027Q1 / upside51.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2027q1_investment
2027Q1 / upside63.75
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q1_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding
2027Q1 / upside135.56
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2027q1_stride_closing
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / upside590.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2027q1_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q1 / upside-454.44
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
upside_2027q2_purchase_volume
2027Q2 / upside47,080.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2027q2_payment_yield
2027Q2 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2027q2_payments
2027Q2 / upside535.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_purchase_volume, upside_2027q2_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2027q2_member_index
2027Q2 / upside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2027q2_platform_monetization
2027Q2 / upside135.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2027q2_platform
2027Q2 / upside357.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2027q2_member_index, upside_2027q2_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside892.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_payments, upside_2027q2_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2027q2_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside794.33
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2027q2_mypay_originations
2027Q2 / upside6,380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q2 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2027q2_mypay_losses
2027Q2 / upside47.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mypay_originations, upside_2027q2_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2027q2_other_risk
2027Q2 / upside77.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2027q2_risk
2027Q2 / upside125.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_mypay_losses, upside_2027q2_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2027q2_transaction_profit
2027Q2 / upside669.23
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2027q2_adjusted_costs
2027Q2 / upside434.71
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside234.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_transaction_profit, upside_2027q2_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside84.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside97.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside137.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2027q2_interest_income
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / upside239.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_interest_tax
2027Q2 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q2_wc
2027Q2 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside43.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q2_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q2_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside196.51
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_earnings, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2027q2_net_loan_funding
2027Q2 / upside57.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2027q2_investment
2027Q2 / upside70.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q2_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding
2027Q2 / upside126.01
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2027q2_stride_closing
2027Q2 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2027q2_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q2 / upside126.01
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
upside_2027q3_purchase_volume
2027Q3 / upside49,755.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2027q3_payment_yield
2027Q3 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2027q3_payments
2027Q3 / upside567.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_purchase_volume, upside_2027q3_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2027q3_member_index
2027Q3 / upside112.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2027q3_platform_monetization
2027Q3 / upside142.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2027q3_platform
2027Q3 / upside385.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2027q3_member_index, upside_2027q3_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside952.10
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_payments, upside_2027q3_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2027q3_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside847.37
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2027q3_mypay_originations
2027Q3 / upside6,820.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q3 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2027q3_mypay_losses
2027Q3 / upside51.15
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mypay_originations, upside_2027q3_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2027q3_other_risk
2027Q3 / upside80.34
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2027q3_risk
2027Q3 / upside131.49
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_mypay_losses, upside_2027q3_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2027q3_transaction_profit
2027Q3 / upside715.88
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2027q3_adjusted_costs
2027Q3 / upside452.58
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside263.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_transaction_profit, upside_2027q3_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside88.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside102.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside161.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2027q3_interest_income
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / upside268.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_interest_tax
2027Q3 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q3_wc
2027Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside50.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q3_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q3_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside218.30
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_earnings, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2027q3_net_loan_funding
2027Q3 / upside63.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2027q3_investment
2027Q3 / upside77.25
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q3_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding
2027Q3 / upside141.05
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2027q3_stride_closing
2027Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2027q3_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q3 / upside141.05
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash).
Purchase volume
upside_2027q4_purchase_volume
2027Q4 / upside51,895.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net payments yield
upside_2027q4_payment_yield
2027Q4 / upside1.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Payments revenue
upside_2027q4_payments
2027Q4 / upside593.85
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_purchase_volume, upside_2027q4_payment_yield).
Active-member exposure index
upside_2027q4_member_index
2027Q4 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform monetization index
upside_2027q4_platform_monetization
2027Q4 / upside149.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Platform revenue
upside_2027q4_platform
2027Q4 / upside412.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(q2_platform, upside_2027q4_member_index, upside_2027q4_platform_monetization).
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside1,006.35
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_payments, upside_2027q4_platform).
Gross margin
upside_2027q4_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside89.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Gross profit after processing
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside895.65
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gross_margin).
MyPay origination activity
upside_2027q4_mypay_originations
2027Q4 / upside7,260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss rate
upside_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate
2027Q4 / upside0.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
MyPay loss allowance
upside_2027q4_mypay_losses
2027Q4 / upside54.45
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mypay_originations, upside_2027q4_mypay_loss_rate).
Other lending, dispute and risk cost
upside_2027q4_other_risk
2027Q4 / upside83.43
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Transaction and risk loss allowance
upside_2027q4_risk
2027Q4 / upside137.88
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_mypay_losses, upside_2027q4_other_risk).
Transaction profit
upside_2027q4_transaction_profit
2027Q4 / upside757.77
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_risk).
Adjusted product, sales and corporate cost
upside_2027q4_adjusted_costs
2027Q4 / upside465.87
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside291.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_transaction_profit, upside_2027q4_adjusted_costs).
Total SBC and stock charitable cost
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside92.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SBC D&A and cash excluded costs
upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside107.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside184.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash interest income
upside_2027q4_interest_income
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA plus cash interest income
upside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / upside296.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_interest_income).
Cash interest and taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_interest_tax
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Product collateral and net operating working-capital use
upside_2027q4_wc
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash adjustments taxes interest and working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside57.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments, upside_2027q4_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q4_wc).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside239.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_earnings, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Loans purchased less repayments
upside_2027q4_net_loan_funding
2027Q4 / upside69.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
PP&E and purchased/internal software cash
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Loans and assets
upside_2027q4_investment
2027Q4 / upside84.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loan funding and assets
upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding
2027Q4 / upside155.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_investment).
Stride closing switch
upside_2027q4_stride_closing
2027Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Conditional quarter placement; expected H1 2027, downside assumes delay. No acquired operations or synergy booked.
Conditional Stride purchase cash
upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: multiply(stride_price, upside_2027q4_stride_closing).
Cash after proposed bank purchase
upside_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition
2027Q4 / upside155.90
USD_millions
derived: Calculated from the named operating assumptions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside2,882.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_payments
FY2026 / upside1,847.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_payments, upside_2026q3_payments, upside_2026q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_platform
FY2026 / upside1,035.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_platform, upside_2026q3_platform, upside_2026q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_transaction_profit
FY2026 / upside2,155.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_transaction_profit, upside_2026q3_transaction_profit, upside_2026q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / upside568.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside246.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside608.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
upside_fy2026_net_loan_funding
FY2026 / upside140.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_loan_funding, upside_2026q3_net_loan_funding, upside_2026q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside38.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_funding
FY2026 / upside429.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
upside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_acquisition
FY2026 / upside429.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_acquisition, upside_2026q3_cash_after_acquisition, upside_2026q4_cash_after_acquisition).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside3,705.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Payments revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_payments
FY2027 / upside2,209.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_payments, upside_2027q2_payments, upside_2027q3_payments, upside_2027q4_payments).
Platform revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_platform
FY2027 / upside1,496.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_platform, upside_2027q2_platform, upside_2027q3_platform, upside_2027q4_platform).
Transaction profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_transaction_profit
FY2027 / upside2,784.76
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_transaction_profit, upside_2027q2_transaction_profit, upside_2027q3_transaction_profit, upside_2027q4_transaction_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / upside1,017.02
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside619.02
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside854.02
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Loan purchases less repayments ($M)
upside_fy2027_net_loan_funding
FY2027 / upside241.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q2_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q3_net_loan_funding, upside_2027q4_net_loan_funding).
PP&E and software cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside54.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after loans and capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_funding
FY2027 / upside558.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Conditional Stride cash price ($M)
upside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / upside590.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after conditional acquisition ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_acquisition
FY2027 / upside-31.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_acquisition, upside_2027q2_cash_after_acquisition, upside_2027q3_cash_after_acquisition, upside_2027q4_cash_after_acquisition).

Model boundaries

Member economics and cash before becoming a bank owner

Research reviewed 2026-09-20

Can Chime grow member profitability while funding lending and the proposed Stride acquisition?

Q2 revenue was $669.8M, including $430.0M payments and $239.7M platform revenue. Transaction profit was $491.6M and adjusted EBITDA $101.6M. Active Members reached 10.4M; purchase volume was $38B and MyPay originations $4.5B with a 0.9% loss rate. H1 CFO $295.0M falls to $223.7M after $53.9M net loan purchases and $17.4M PP&E/software cash, before $222.1M buybacks. September 8 superseding guidance raises Q3 revenue to $705M and FY2026 revenue/EBITDA to $2.76-2.77B/$481-489M. The proposed $590M cash purchase of Stride targets H1 2027 closing; expected net synergies above $100M are not current profit.

The competing explanation

Faster credit growth may increase loss and funding needs before member economics mature. Regulatory delay or additional bank capital requirements could reduce acquisition benefits and cash flexibility.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Includes September Stride agreement and raised guidance; adds loan-investment and conditional cash-price bridge.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-25 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, quiet volume, closed weak, and peers quiet

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.1+0.0+2.151%
5 sessions-5.5+0.3+5.753%
10 sessions-7.2+0.4+10.054%
1 month (21 sessions)-12.9+0.6+15.352%
3 months (63 sessions)-23.7-0.7+31.549%
6 months (126 sessions)-30.3+1.0+35.254%
1 year (252 sessions)-44.3+2.6+55.754%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side. In the D7 test (403 anchors, 2023-2025) the 1-month band held 76% of outcomes, 3-month 77%, 6-month 76%, 1-year 75%, against a nominal 80%; the analog pool under-represents names that later delisted.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-04 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  2. [2] derived: Revenues, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  3. [3] reported: Revenues, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  4. [4] reported: Revenues, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  6. [6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  10. [10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  14. [14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  16. [16] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  19. [19] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  26. [26] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  27. [27] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001795586-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  28. [28] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001795586-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  29. [29] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001795586-26-000048, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  30. [30] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json
  31. [31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001795586-25-000019, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:16:29+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001795586.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-26T11:16:30.442960+00:00 · authored bd0e20b8e35f · generated 86eb0b115cfa · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard