ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · TRANSPORT, INDUSTRIALS & DEFENSE

$AVAV

AeroVironment Inc · Nasdaq · SIC 3721 · CIK 1368622 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

AeroVironment supplies defense technology through Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. Product deliveries, contract-service execution and government funding determine revenue. BlueHalo broadened the portfolio and added substantial acquired intangible amortization. Manufacturing expansion, inventory and unbilled work require cash before customer acceptance and payment. Funded contracts, unfunded awards and large contract ceilings have different economic certainty.

Three drivers

  1. Funded orders converting into accepted deliveries
  2. Autonomous Systems scale and SCDE recovery
  3. Inventory, contract billing and manufacturing investment

Thesis

Our view

Q1 revenue reached $480.490M, but SCDE adjusted EBITDA was negative $8.896M while Autonomous Systems earned $62.285M. The full-year outlook requires stronger second-half execution. September management commentary says new directed-energy awards are already included in guidance; treating the headline contracts as extra annual sales would overstate the opportunity. The real test is cash after manufacturing and software investment.

What changes it

Track funded backlog conversion, segment margins, inventory and unbilled receivables. Verify the second-half profit ramp and control remediation; treat future capacity as an investment that must earn returns.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q2
2024-10-26
2025Q3
2025-01-25
2025Q4
2025-04-30
2026Q1
2025-08-02
2026Q2
2025-11-01
2026Q3
2026-01-31
2026Q4
2026-04-30
2027Q1
2026-08-01
Revenue ($M)188.51167.62275.1†3454.74472.51408.02641.6†3480.54
Gross profit ($M)73.6563.26100.3†795.18104.1598.86202.6†7124.68
Operating income ($M)7.09-3.11013.8†11-69.312-30.29-268.41056.9†11-10.912
Net income ($M)
EPS, diluted ($)0.2713-0.0614-1.4415-0.3413-4.9014-0.1015
Diluted shares (M)28.11628.01746.91849.71649.71749.818
Cash ($M)69.01947.02040.921685.822359.423289.924377.325278.425
Long-term debt ($M)15.02625.02730.028725.729726.830727.931729.032730.132
Cash from operations ($M)-3.6†33-25.8†34-0.3†35-123.736-45.1†33-5.1†3495.5†3513.536
Capex ($M)5.0†373.8†385.3†3922.74010.8†3712.6†3816.4†3944.040
Free cash flow ($M)-8.7†41-29.6†42-5.5†43-146.5†44-55.9†41-17.7†4279.1†43-30.5†44

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2027Q2498.32026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q3550.32026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q4646.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2028Q1587.92026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Funded deliveries, segment recovery and factory cash investment

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Anchor FY2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to September guidance, with the September 10 first-half cadence of 45% of revenue and one-third of EBITDA. Preserve actual Q1 and allocate the remaining year across Autonomous Systems and Space/Cyber/Directed Energy. Extend those businesses independently in FY2028. Separate GAAP noncash amortization and equity compensation from cash integration costs, then bridge inventory and unbilled receivables to CFO. Capital investment includes the already closed August campus purchase once.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2027 revenue outlook midpointFY20272,175.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook midpointFY2027315.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
First-half revenue shareFY202745.0%management guidance. Management September 10 cadence. Source · 2026-09-10
First-half adjusted EBITDA shareFY202733.3%management guidance. Management September 10 cadence. Source · 2026-09-10
funded backlogAugust 20261,457.82reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10
unfunded backlogAugust 20261,366.50reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10
August funded backlog FY2027 conversion referenceFY20271,137.10derived. Subset of backlog, not additive to revenue guidance.
Q1 cash after software2027Q1-35.95derived. Capitalized software is a separate investing outflow.
Q1 after award withholding2027Q1-45.52derived. Excludes ESPP proceeds and securities trades.
unbilled receivablesAugust 2026637.83reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10
inventoryAugust 2026410.77reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10
customer advancesAugust 202687.55reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10
Cash plus short- and long-term investmentsAugust 2026675.00derived. Not all in demand deposits; excludes revolver capacity.
campus purchaseAugust 202629.25reported. August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Source · 2026-09-10

Downside scenario

PeriodAutonomous Systems revenue ($M)Operating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)PP&E cash purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)Capitalized software cash ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after software and award withholding ($M)Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
2027Q2314.53-51.52-122.77125.0071.25439.536.00116.3030.61-51.08-136.77-128.77
2027Q3377.2610.15-34.85140.0045.00517.266.00138.5077.28-4.41-48.85-40.85
2027Q4447.2268.5923.59160.0045.00607.226.00163.5890.729.039.5917.59
2028Q1352.83-10.99-55.99129.2545.00482.087.00129.3663.51-18.49-72.99-62.99
FY20271,484.9840.71-164.58559.52205.282,044.5023.42542.97252.00-57.33-221.56-187.99
FY20281,603.7890.68-74.32587.50165.002,191.2728.00588.00288.68-39.32-142.32-102.32

Base scenario

PeriodAutonomous Systems revenue ($M)Operating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)PP&E cash purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)Capitalized software cash ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after software and award withholding ($M)Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
2027Q2363.26-5.52-69.77135.0064.25498.266.00149.6751.61-30.08-83.77-75.77
2027Q3390.2759.4724.47160.0035.00550.276.00162.9096.6014.9110.4718.47
2027Q4455.50136.27101.27190.4835.00645.986.00190.65113.4031.7187.2795.27
2028Q1417.3651.7916.79170.5035.00587.867.00174.12101.2919.29-0.219.79
FY20271,555.00203.7125.42620.00178.282,175.0023.42627.82315.005.67-31.562.01
FY20281,897.10357.39217.39775.00140.002,672.1028.00791.46460.39132.39149.39189.39

Upside scenario

PeriodAutonomous Systems revenue ($M)Operating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E ($M)Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)PP&E cash purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)Capitalized software cash ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after software and award withholding ($M)Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
2027Q2397.4122.08-42.17140.0064.25537.416.00176.2264.21-17.48-56.17-48.17
2027Q3392.2986.0646.06180.0040.00572.296.00181.47108.1926.5032.0640.06
2027Q4461.81164.87124.87210.0040.00671.816.00213.29127.0145.32110.87118.87
2028Q1463.9191.7651.76204.6740.00668.587.00213.13131.2649.2634.7644.76
FY20271,597.48286.5198.22664.52188.282,262.0023.42695.57352.8043.4741.2474.81
FY20282,108.67533.63373.63930.33160.003,039.0028.00968.75596.63268.63305.63345.63
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
Q1 revenue
q1_revenue
2027Q1 / shared480.49
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 axs
q1_axs
2027Q1 / shared345.97
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 scde
q1_scde
2027Q1 / shared134.52
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 gross profit
q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / shared124.60
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 adjusted ebitda
q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / shared53.39
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 operating income
q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / shared-10.87
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 cfo
q1_cfo
2027Q1 / shared13.50
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 capex
q1_capex
2027Q1 / shared44.03
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 software
q1_software
2027Q1 / shared5.42
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 sbc
q1_sbc
2027Q1 / shared4.93
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 da
q1_da
2027Q1 / shared56.03
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 withholding
q1_withholding
2027Q1 / shared9.56
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 inventory use
q1_inventory_use
2027Q1 / shared100.31
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 unbilled use
q1_unbilled_use
2027Q1 / shared68.04
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 receivable release
q1_receivable_release
2027Q1 / shared128.35
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Q1 cash after PP&E
q1_fcf
2027Q1 / shared-30.54
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical cash definition. Formula: subtract(q1_cfo, q1_capex).
Q1 cash after software
q1_cash_after_software
2027Q1 / shared-35.95
USD_millions
derived: Capitalized software is a separate investing outflow. Formula: subtract(q1_fcf, q1_software).
Q1 after award withholding
q1_cash_after_awards
2027Q1 / shared-45.52
USD_millions
derived: Excludes ESPP proceeds and securities trades. Formula: subtract(q1_cash_after_software, q1_withholding).
cash
cash
August 2026 / shared278.39
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
short investments
short_investments
August 2026 / shared301.84
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
long investments
long_investments
August 2026 / shared94.78
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
funded backlog
funded_backlog
August 2026 / shared1,457.82
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
unfunded backlog
unfunded_backlog
August 2026 / shared1,366.50
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
unbilled receivables
unbilled_receivables
August 2026 / shared637.83
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
inventory
inventory
August 2026 / shared410.77
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
customer advances
customer_advances
August 2026 / shared87.55
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
campus purchase
campus_purchase
August 2026 / shared29.25
USD_millions
reported: August 1 balance except campus purchase closed August 21; unfunded backlog is not a firm funded performance obligation. Primary source · 2026-09-10
Cash plus short- and long-term investments
liquidity
August 2026 / shared675.00
USD_millions
derived: Not all in demand deposits; excludes revolver capacity. Formula: sum(cash, short_investments, long_investments).
August funded backlog expected in FY2027
funded_conversion
FY2027 / shared78.0%
ratio
management guidance: Share of August 1 funded remaining performance obligations; not September total-year visibility. Primary source · 2026-09-10
August funded backlog FY2027 conversion reference
funded_conversion_amount
FY2027 / shared1,137.10
USD_millions
derived: Subset of backlog, not additive to revenue guidance. Formula: multiply(funded_backlog, funded_conversion).
FY2027 revenue outlook low
fy27_revenue_guide_low
FY2027 / shared2,125.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-09
FY2027 revenue outlook high
fy27_revenue_guide_high
FY2027 / shared2,225.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-09
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2027 revenue outlook endpoint sum
fy27_revenue_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared4,350.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_revenue_guide_low, fy27_revenue_guide_high).
FY2027 revenue outlook midpoint
fy27_revenue_guide
FY2027 / shared2,175.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_revenue_guide_sum, two).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook low
fy27_ebitda_guide_low
FY2027 / shared305.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-09
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook high
fy27_ebitda_guide_high
FY2027 / shared325.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-09
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook endpoint sum
fy27_ebitda_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared630.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy27_ebitda_guide_low, fy27_ebitda_guide_high).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook midpoint
fy27_ebitda_guide
FY2027 / shared315.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy27_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
First-half revenue share
h1_revenue_share
FY2027 / shared45.0%
ratio
management guidance: Management September 10 cadence. Primary source · 2026-09-10
First-half adjusted EBITDA share
h1_ebitda_share
FY2027 / shared33.3%
ratio
management guidance: Management September 10 cadence. Primary source · 2026-09-10
revenue delivery / midpoint
downside_revenue_factor
FY2027 / downside94.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 revenue
downside_fy27_revenue_target
FY2027 / downside2,044.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, downside_revenue_factor).
First-half revenue
downside_h1_revenue
H1 FY2027 / downside920.02
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_revenue_target, h1_revenue_share).
Q2 revenue
downside_q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside439.53
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(downside_h1_revenue, q1_revenue).
H2 revenue
downside_h2_revenue
H2 FY2027 / downside1,124.47
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_fy27_revenue_target, downside_h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda delivery / midpoint
downside_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2027 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 adjusted_ebitda
downside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2027 / downside252.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_ebitda_guide, downside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
First-half adjusted_ebitda
downside_h1_adjusted_ebitda
H1 FY2027 / downside84.00
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_ebitda_share).
Q2 adjusted_ebitda
downside_q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside30.61
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(downside_h1_adjusted_ebitda, q1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
downside_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 FY2027 / downside168.00
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, downside_h1_adjusted_ebitda).
Remaining FY2027 SCDE revenue
downside_scde_remaining
FY2027 / downside425.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk SCDE sales allocation inside consolidated outlook.
FY2027 SCDE revenue
downside_fy27_scde
FY2027 / downside559.52
USD_millions
derived: Actual Q1 plus modeled remaining periods. Formula: sum(q1_scde, downside_scde_remaining).
FY2027 AxS revenue
downside_fy27_axs
FY2027 / downside1,484.98
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated total less SCDE. Formula: subtract(downside_fy27_revenue_target, downside_fy27_scde).
FY2028 axs growth multiplier
downside_axs_growth
FY2028 / downside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 axs sales
downside_fy28_axs
FY2028 / downside1,603.78
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_axs, downside_axs_growth).
FY2028 scde growth multiplier
downside_scde_growth
FY2028 / downside105.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 scde sales
downside_fy28_scde
FY2028 / downside587.50
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_scde, downside_scde_growth).
Arithmetic zero
downside_2027q2_zero
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside439.53
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(downside_q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_zero).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside30.61
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(downside_q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_zero).
SCDE revenue
downside_2027q2_scde
2027Q2 / downside125.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2027q2_axs
2027Q2 / downside314.53
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_axs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2027q2_axs_gross
2027Q2 / downside103.80
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_axs, downside_2027q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_scde_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2027q2_scde_gross
2027Q2 / downside12.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_scde, downside_2027q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside116.30
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_axs_gross, downside_2027q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / downside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / downside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2027q2_cloud_amort
2027Q2 / downside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2027q2_integration
2027Q2 / downside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_gaap_costs
2027Q2 / downside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_depreciation, downside_2027q2_amortization, downside_2027q2_cloud_amort, downside_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-51.08
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / downside30.48
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_depreciation, downside_2027q2_amortization, downside_2027q2_cloud_amort, downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2027q2_net_working_capital
2027Q2 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_net_working_capital, downside_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-51.52
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2027q2_campus_timing
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2027q2_campus_cash
2027Q2 / downside29.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2027q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2027q2_other_capex
2027Q2 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside71.25
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_other_capex, downside_2027q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2027q2_software
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-122.77
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2027q2_cash_after_software
2027Q2 / downside-128.77
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2027q2_cash_after_awards
2027Q2 / downside-136.77
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_after_software, downside_2027q2_withholding).
Share of second half
downside_2027q3_h2_share
2027Q3 / downside46.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside517.26
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_revenue, downside_2027q3_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside77.28
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
downside_2027q3_scde
2027Q3 / downside140.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2027q3_axs
2027Q3 / downside377.26
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_axs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2027q3_axs_gross
2027Q3 / downside124.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_axs, downside_2027q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_scde_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2027q3_scde_gross
2027Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_scde, downside_2027q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside138.50
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_axs_gross, downside_2027q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / downside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / downside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2027q3_cloud_amort
2027Q3 / downside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2027q3_integration
2027Q3 / downside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_gaap_costs
2027Q3 / downside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_depreciation, downside_2027q3_amortization, downside_2027q3_cloud_amort, downside_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-4.41
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / downside77.15
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_depreciation, downside_2027q3_amortization, downside_2027q3_cloud_amort, downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2027q3_net_working_capital
2027Q3 / downside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside67.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_net_working_capital, downside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside10.15
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2027q3_campus_timing
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2027q3_campus_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2027q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2027q3_other_capex
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_other_capex, downside_2027q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2027q3_software
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-34.85
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2027q3_cash_after_software
2027Q3 / downside-40.85
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2027q3_cash_after_awards
2027Q3 / downside-48.85
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_after_software, downside_2027q3_withholding).
Share of second half
downside_2027q4_h2_share
2027Q4 / downside54.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside607.22
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_revenue, downside_2027q4_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside90.72
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
downside_2027q4_scde
2027Q4 / downside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2027q4_axs
2027Q4 / downside447.22
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_axs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2027q4_axs_gross
2027Q4 / downside147.58
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_axs, downside_2027q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_scde_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2027q4_scde_gross
2027Q4 / downside16.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_scde, downside_2027q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside163.58
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_axs_gross, downside_2027q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / downside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / downside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2027q4_cloud_amort
2027Q4 / downside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2027q4_integration
2027Q4 / downside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_gaap_costs
2027Q4 / downside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_depreciation, downside_2027q4_amortization, downside_2027q4_cloud_amort, downside_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside9.03
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / downside90.59
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_depreciation, downside_2027q4_amortization, downside_2027q4_cloud_amort, downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2027q4_net_working_capital
2027Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside22.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_net_working_capital, downside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside68.59
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2027q4_campus_timing
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2027q4_campus_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2027q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2027q4_other_capex
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_other_capex, downside_2027q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2027q4_software
2027Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside23.59
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2027q4_cash_after_software
2027Q4 / downside17.59
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2027q4_cash_after_awards
2027Q4 / downside9.59
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_after_software, downside_2027q4_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
downside_2028q1_weight
2028Q1 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2028q1_axs
2028Q1 / downside352.83
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_axs, downside_2028q1_weight).
SCDE revenue
downside_2028q1_scde
2028Q1 / downside129.25
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_scde, downside_2028q1_weight).
Revenue
downside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / downside482.08
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_axs, downside_2028q1_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q1_axs_ebitda
2028Q1 / downside63.51
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_axs, downside_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q1_scde_ebitda
2028Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_scde, downside_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q1 / downside63.51
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_axs_ebitda, downside_2028q1_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q1_axs_gross_margin
2028Q1 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2028q1_axs_gross
2028Q1 / downside116.43
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_axs, downside_2028q1_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q1_scde_gross_margin
2028Q1 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2028q1_scde_gross
2028Q1 / downside12.92
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_scde, downside_2028q1_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / downside129.36
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_axs_gross, downside_2028q1_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2028q1_depreciation
2028Q1 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2028q1_amortization
2028Q1 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2028q1_cloud_amort
2028Q1 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2028q1_integration
2028Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q1_gaap_costs
2028Q1 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_depreciation, downside_2028q1_amortization, downside_2028q1_cloud_amort, downside_2028q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / downside-18.49
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q1_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2028q1_net_cash_interest
2028Q1 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2028q1_cash_before_uses
2028Q1 / downside64.01
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_depreciation, downside_2028q1_amortization, downside_2028q1_cloud_amort, downside_2028q1_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2028q1_net_working_capital
2028Q1 / downside70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / downside75.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_net_working_capital, downside_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / downside-10.99
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_before_uses, downside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2028q1_campus_timing
2028Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2028q1_campus_cash
2028Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2028q1_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2028q1_other_capex
2028Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_other_capex, downside_2028q1_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2028q1_software
2028Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / downside-55.99
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2028q1_cash_after_software
2028Q1 / downside-62.99
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q1_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2028q1_withholding
2028Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2028q1_cash_after_awards
2028Q1 / downside-72.99
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_after_software, downside_2028q1_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
downside_2028q2_weight
2028Q2 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2028q2_axs
2028Q2 / downside368.87
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_axs, downside_2028q2_weight).
SCDE revenue
downside_2028q2_scde
2028Q2 / downside135.12
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_scde, downside_2028q2_weight).
Revenue
downside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / downside503.99
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_axs, downside_2028q2_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q2_axs_ebitda
2028Q2 / downside66.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_axs, downside_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q2_scde_ebitda
2028Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_scde, downside_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q2 / downside66.40
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_axs_ebitda, downside_2028q2_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q2_axs_gross_margin
2028Q2 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2028q2_axs_gross
2028Q2 / downside121.73
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_axs, downside_2028q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q2_scde_gross_margin
2028Q2 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2028q2_scde_gross
2028Q2 / downside13.51
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_scde, downside_2028q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / downside135.24
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_axs_gross, downside_2028q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2028q2_depreciation
2028Q2 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2028q2_amortization
2028Q2 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2028q2_cloud_amort
2028Q2 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2028q2_integration
2028Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q2_gaap_costs
2028Q2 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_depreciation, downside_2028q2_amortization, downside_2028q2_cloud_amort, downside_2028q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / downside-15.60
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2028q2_net_cash_interest
2028Q2 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2028q2_cash_before_uses
2028Q2 / downside66.90
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_depreciation, downside_2028q2_amortization, downside_2028q2_cloud_amort, downside_2028q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2028q2_net_working_capital
2028Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / downside50.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_net_working_capital, downside_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / downside16.90
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_before_uses, downside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2028q2_campus_timing
2028Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2028q2_campus_cash
2028Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2028q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2028q2_other_capex
2028Q2 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_other_capex, downside_2028q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2028q2_software
2028Q2 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / downside-23.10
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2028q2_cash_after_software
2028Q2 / downside-30.10
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q2_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2028q2_withholding
2028Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2028q2_cash_after_awards
2028Q2 / downside-40.10
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_after_software, downside_2028q2_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
downside_2028q3_weight
2028Q3 / downside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2028q3_axs
2028Q3 / downside416.98
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_axs, downside_2028q3_weight).
SCDE revenue
downside_2028q3_scde
2028Q3 / downside152.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_scde, downside_2028q3_weight).
Revenue
downside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / downside569.73
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_axs, downside_2028q3_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q3_axs_ebitda
2028Q3 / downside75.06
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_axs, downside_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q3_scde_ebitda
2028Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_scde, downside_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q3 / downside75.06
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_axs_ebitda, downside_2028q3_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q3_axs_gross_margin
2028Q3 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2028q3_axs_gross
2028Q3 / downside137.60
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_axs, downside_2028q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q3_scde_gross_margin
2028Q3 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2028q3_scde_gross
2028Q3 / downside15.27
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_scde, downside_2028q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / downside152.88
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_axs_gross, downside_2028q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2028q3_depreciation
2028Q3 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2028q3_amortization
2028Q3 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2028q3_cloud_amort
2028Q3 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2028q3_integration
2028Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q3_gaap_costs
2028Q3 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_depreciation, downside_2028q3_amortization, downside_2028q3_cloud_amort, downside_2028q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / downside-6.94
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2028q3_net_cash_interest
2028Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2028q3_cash_before_uses
2028Q3 / downside75.56
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_depreciation, downside_2028q3_amortization, downside_2028q3_cloud_amort, downside_2028q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2028q3_net_working_capital
2028Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_net_working_capital, downside_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / downside25.56
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2028q3_campus_timing
2028Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2028q3_campus_cash
2028Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2028q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2028q3_other_capex
2028Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_other_capex, downside_2028q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2028q3_software
2028Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / downside-14.44
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2028q3_cash_after_software
2028Q3 / downside-21.44
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q3_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2028q3_withholding
2028Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2028q3_cash_after_awards
2028Q3 / downside-31.44
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_after_software, downside_2028q3_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
downside_2028q4_weight
2028Q4 / downside29.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
downside_2028q4_axs
2028Q4 / downside465.10
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_axs, downside_2028q4_weight).
SCDE revenue
downside_2028q4_scde
2028Q4 / downside170.37
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_fy28_scde, downside_2028q4_weight).
Revenue
downside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / downside635.47
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_axs, downside_2028q4_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q4_axs_ebitda
2028Q4 / downside83.72
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_axs, downside_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q4_scde_ebitda
2028Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_scde, downside_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q4 / downside83.72
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_axs_ebitda, downside_2028q4_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q4_axs_gross_margin
2028Q4 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
downside_2028q4_axs_gross
2028Q4 / downside153.48
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_axs, downside_2028q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q4_scde_gross_margin
2028Q4 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
downside_2028q4_scde_gross
2028Q4 / downside17.04
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_scde, downside_2028q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / downside170.52
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_axs_gross, downside_2028q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
downside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
downside_2028q4_depreciation
2028Q4 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
downside_2028q4_amortization
2028Q4 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
downside_2028q4_cloud_amort
2028Q4 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
downside_2028q4_integration
2028Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2028q4_gaap_costs
2028Q4 / downside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_depreciation, downside_2028q4_amortization, downside_2028q4_cloud_amort, downside_2028q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / downside1.72
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
downside_2028q4_net_cash_interest
2028Q4 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
downside_2028q4_cash_before_uses
2028Q4 / downside84.22
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_operating_income, downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_depreciation, downside_2028q4_amortization, downside_2028q4_cloud_amort, downside_2028q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
downside_2028q4_net_working_capital
2028Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_net_working_capital, downside_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / downside59.22
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
downside_2028q4_campus_timing
2028Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
downside_2028q4_campus_cash
2028Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, downside_2028q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
downside_2028q4_other_capex
2028Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
downside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_other_capex, downside_2028q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
downside_2028q4_software
2028Q4 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / downside19.22
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex).
Cash after software
downside_2028q4_cash_after_software
2028Q4 / downside12.22
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_fcf, downside_2028q4_software).
Award withholding cash
downside_2028q4_withholding
2028Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
downside_2028q4_cash_after_awards
2028Q4 / downside2.22
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_after_software, downside_2028q4_withholding).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside2,044.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_axs
FY2027 / downside1,484.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_axs, downside_2027q2_axs, downside_2027q3_axs, downside_2027q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_scde
FY2027 / downside559.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_scde, downside_2027q2_scde, downside_2027q3_scde, downside_2027q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside542.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / downside252.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-57.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside40.71
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside205.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_software
FY2027 / downside23.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_software, downside_2027q2_software, downside_2027q3_software, downside_2027q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-164.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_software
FY2027 / downside-187.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_software, downside_2027q2_cash_after_software, downside_2027q3_cash_after_software, downside_2027q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_awards
FY2027 / downside-221.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_awards, downside_2027q2_cash_after_awards, downside_2027q3_cash_after_awards, downside_2027q4_cash_after_awards).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / downside2,191.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_axs
FY2028 / downside1,603.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_axs, downside_2028q2_axs, downside_2028q3_axs, downside_2028q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_scde
FY2028 / downside587.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_scde, downside_2028q2_scde, downside_2028q3_scde, downside_2028q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / downside588.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2028_adjusted_ebitda
FY2028 / downside288.68
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / downside-39.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / downside90.68
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
downside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / downside165.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_capex, downside_2028q2_capex, downside_2028q3_capex, downside_2028q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
downside_fy2028_software
FY2028 / downside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_software, downside_2028q2_software, downside_2028q3_software, downside_2028q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / downside-74.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_software
FY2028 / downside-102.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_software, downside_2028q2_cash_after_software, downside_2028q3_cash_after_software, downside_2028q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_awards
FY2028 / downside-142.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_awards, downside_2028q2_cash_after_awards, downside_2028q3_cash_after_awards, downside_2028q4_cash_after_awards).
revenue delivery / midpoint
base_revenue_factor
FY2027 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 revenue
base_fy27_revenue_target
FY2027 / base2,175.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, base_revenue_factor).
First-half revenue
base_h1_revenue
H1 FY2027 / base978.75
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_revenue_target, h1_revenue_share).
Q2 revenue
base_q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base498.26
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(base_h1_revenue, q1_revenue).
H2 revenue
base_h2_revenue
H2 FY2027 / base1,196.25
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(base_fy27_revenue_target, base_h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda delivery / midpoint
base_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2027 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 adjusted_ebitda
base_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2027 / base315.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_ebitda_guide, base_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
First-half adjusted_ebitda
base_h1_adjusted_ebitda
H1 FY2027 / base105.00
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_ebitda_share).
Q2 adjusted_ebitda
base_q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / base51.61
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(base_h1_adjusted_ebitda, q1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
base_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 FY2027 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(base_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, base_h1_adjusted_ebitda).
Remaining FY2027 SCDE revenue
base_scde_remaining
FY2027 / base485.48
USD_millions
assumption: Desk SCDE sales allocation inside consolidated outlook.
FY2027 SCDE revenue
base_fy27_scde
FY2027 / base620.00
USD_millions
derived: Actual Q1 plus modeled remaining periods. Formula: sum(q1_scde, base_scde_remaining).
FY2027 AxS revenue
base_fy27_axs
FY2027 / base1,555.00
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated total less SCDE. Formula: subtract(base_fy27_revenue_target, base_fy27_scde).
FY2028 axs growth multiplier
base_axs_growth
FY2028 / base122.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 axs sales
base_fy28_axs
FY2028 / base1,897.10
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_axs, base_axs_growth).
FY2028 scde growth multiplier
base_scde_growth
FY2028 / base125.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 scde sales
base_fy28_scde
FY2028 / base775.00
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_scde, base_scde_growth).
Arithmetic zero
base_2027q2_zero
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base498.26
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(base_q2_revenue, base_2027q2_zero).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / base51.61
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(base_q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_zero).
SCDE revenue
base_2027q2_scde
2027Q2 / base135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2027q2_axs
2027Q2 / base363.26
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_axs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2027q2_axs_gross
2027Q2 / base130.77
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_axs, base_2027q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_scde_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2027q2_scde_gross
2027Q2 / base18.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_scde, base_2027q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base149.67
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_axs_gross, base_2027q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / base20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / base43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2027q2_cloud_amort
2027Q2 / base3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2027q2_integration
2027Q2 / base2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_gaap_costs
2027Q2 / base81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_depreciation, base_2027q2_amortization, base_2027q2_cloud_amort, base_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base-30.08
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / base51.48
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_depreciation, base_2027q2_amortization, base_2027q2_cloud_amort, base_2027q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2027q2_net_working_capital
2027Q2 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base57.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_net_working_capital, base_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base-5.52
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_uses, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2027q2_campus_timing
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2027q2_campus_cash
2027Q2 / base29.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2027q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2027q2_other_capex
2027Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base64.25
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_other_capex, base_2027q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2027q2_software
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-69.77
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Cash after software
base_2027q2_cash_after_software
2027Q2 / base-75.77
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2027q2_cash_after_awards
2027Q2 / base-83.77
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_after_software, base_2027q2_withholding).
Share of second half
base_2027q3_h2_share
2027Q3 / base46.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base550.27
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_h2_revenue, base_2027q3_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / base96.60
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(base_h2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
base_2027q3_scde
2027Q3 / base160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2027q3_axs
2027Q3 / base390.27
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_axs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2027q3_axs_gross
2027Q3 / base140.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_axs, base_2027q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_scde_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2027q3_scde_gross
2027Q3 / base22.40
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_scde, base_2027q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base162.90
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_axs_gross, base_2027q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / base20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / base43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2027q3_cloud_amort
2027Q3 / base3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2027q3_integration
2027Q3 / base2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_gaap_costs
2027Q3 / base81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_depreciation, base_2027q3_amortization, base_2027q3_cloud_amort, base_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base14.91
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / base96.47
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_depreciation, base_2027q3_amortization, base_2027q3_cloud_amort, base_2027q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2027q3_net_working_capital
2027Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base37.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_net_working_capital, base_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base59.47
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_uses, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2027q3_campus_timing
2027Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2027q3_campus_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2027q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2027q3_other_capex
2027Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_other_capex, base_2027q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2027q3_software
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base24.47
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Cash after software
base_2027q3_cash_after_software
2027Q3 / base18.47
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2027q3_cash_after_awards
2027Q3 / base10.47
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_after_software, base_2027q3_withholding).
Share of second half
base_2027q4_h2_share
2027Q4 / base54.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base645.98
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_h2_revenue, base_2027q4_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / base113.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(base_h2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
base_2027q4_scde
2027Q4 / base190.48
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2027q4_axs
2027Q4 / base455.50
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_axs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2027q4_axs_gross
2027Q4 / base163.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_axs, base_2027q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_scde_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2027q4_scde_gross
2027Q4 / base26.67
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_scde, base_2027q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base190.65
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_axs_gross, base_2027q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / base20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / base43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2027q4_cloud_amort
2027Q4 / base3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2027q4_integration
2027Q4 / base2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_gaap_costs
2027Q4 / base81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_depreciation, base_2027q4_amortization, base_2027q4_cloud_amort, base_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base31.71
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / base113.27
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_depreciation, base_2027q4_amortization, base_2027q4_cloud_amort, base_2027q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2027q4_net_working_capital
2027Q4 / base-25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base-23.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_net_working_capital, base_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base136.27
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_uses, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2027q4_campus_timing
2027Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2027q4_campus_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2027q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2027q4_other_capex
2027Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_other_capex, base_2027q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2027q4_software
2027Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base101.27
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Cash after software
base_2027q4_cash_after_software
2027Q4 / base95.27
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2027q4_cash_after_awards
2027Q4 / base87.27
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_after_software, base_2027q4_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
base_2028q1_weight
2028Q1 / base22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2028q1_axs
2028Q1 / base417.36
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_axs, base_2028q1_weight).
SCDE revenue
base_2028q1_scde
2028Q1 / base170.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_scde, base_2028q1_weight).
Revenue
base_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / base587.86
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_axs, base_2028q1_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / base21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q1_axs_ebitda
2028Q1 / base87.65
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_axs, base_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / base8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q1_scde_ebitda
2028Q1 / base13.64
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_scde, base_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q1 / base101.29
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_axs_ebitda, base_2028q1_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2028q1_axs_gross_margin
2028Q1 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2028q1_axs_gross
2028Q1 / base150.25
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_axs, base_2028q1_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2028q1_scde_gross_margin
2028Q1 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2028q1_scde_gross
2028Q1 / base23.87
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_scde, base_2028q1_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / base174.12
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_axs_gross, base_2028q1_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2028q1_depreciation
2028Q1 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2028q1_amortization
2028Q1 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2028q1_cloud_amort
2028Q1 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2028q1_integration
2028Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q1_gaap_costs
2028Q1 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_depreciation, base_2028q1_amortization, base_2028q1_cloud_amort, base_2028q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / base19.29
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q1_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2028q1_net_cash_interest
2028Q1 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2028q1_cash_before_uses
2028Q1 / base101.79
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_depreciation, base_2028q1_amortization, base_2028q1_cloud_amort, base_2028q1_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2028q1_net_working_capital
2028Q1 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_net_working_capital, base_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / base51.79
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_before_uses, base_2028q1_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2028q1_campus_timing
2028Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2028q1_campus_cash
2028Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2028q1_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2028q1_other_capex
2028Q1 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_other_capex, base_2028q1_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2028q1_software
2028Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / base16.79
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex).
Cash after software
base_2028q1_cash_after_software
2028Q1 / base9.79
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q1_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2028q1_withholding
2028Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2028q1_cash_after_awards
2028Q1 / base-0.21
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_after_software, base_2028q1_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
base_2028q2_weight
2028Q2 / base23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2028q2_axs
2028Q2 / base436.33
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_axs, base_2028q2_weight).
SCDE revenue
base_2028q2_scde
2028Q2 / base178.25
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_scde, base_2028q2_weight).
Revenue
base_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / base614.58
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_axs, base_2028q2_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / base21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q2_axs_ebitda
2028Q2 / base91.63
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_axs, base_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / base8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q2_scde_ebitda
2028Q2 / base14.26
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_scde, base_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q2 / base105.89
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_axs_ebitda, base_2028q2_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2028q2_axs_gross_margin
2028Q2 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2028q2_axs_gross
2028Q2 / base157.08
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_axs, base_2028q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2028q2_scde_gross_margin
2028Q2 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2028q2_scde_gross
2028Q2 / base24.96
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_scde, base_2028q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / base182.03
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_axs_gross, base_2028q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2028q2_depreciation
2028Q2 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2028q2_amortization
2028Q2 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2028q2_cloud_amort
2028Q2 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2028q2_integration
2028Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q2_gaap_costs
2028Q2 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_depreciation, base_2028q2_amortization, base_2028q2_cloud_amort, base_2028q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / base23.89
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2028q2_net_cash_interest
2028Q2 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2028q2_cash_before_uses
2028Q2 / base106.39
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_depreciation, base_2028q2_amortization, base_2028q2_cloud_amort, base_2028q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2028q2_net_working_capital
2028Q2 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / base30.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_net_working_capital, base_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / base76.39
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_before_uses, base_2028q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2028q2_campus_timing
2028Q2 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2028q2_campus_cash
2028Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2028q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2028q2_other_capex
2028Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_other_capex, base_2028q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2028q2_software
2028Q2 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / base41.39
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex).
Cash after software
base_2028q2_cash_after_software
2028Q2 / base34.39
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q2_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2028q2_withholding
2028Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2028q2_cash_after_awards
2028Q2 / base24.39
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_after_software, base_2028q2_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
base_2028q3_weight
2028Q3 / base26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2028q3_axs
2028Q3 / base493.25
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_axs, base_2028q3_weight).
SCDE revenue
base_2028q3_scde
2028Q3 / base201.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_scde, base_2028q3_weight).
Revenue
base_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / base694.75
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_axs, base_2028q3_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / base21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q3_axs_ebitda
2028Q3 / base103.58
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_axs, base_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / base8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q3_scde_ebitda
2028Q3 / base16.12
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_scde, base_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q3 / base119.70
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_axs_ebitda, base_2028q3_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2028q3_axs_gross_margin
2028Q3 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2028q3_axs_gross
2028Q3 / base177.57
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_axs, base_2028q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2028q3_scde_gross_margin
2028Q3 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2028q3_scde_gross
2028Q3 / base28.21
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_scde, base_2028q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / base205.78
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_axs_gross, base_2028q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2028q3_depreciation
2028Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2028q3_amortization
2028Q3 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2028q3_cloud_amort
2028Q3 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2028q3_integration
2028Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q3_gaap_costs
2028Q3 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_depreciation, base_2028q3_amortization, base_2028q3_cloud_amort, base_2028q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / base37.70
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2028q3_net_cash_interest
2028Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2028q3_cash_before_uses
2028Q3 / base120.20
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_depreciation, base_2028q3_amortization, base_2028q3_cloud_amort, base_2028q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2028q3_net_working_capital
2028Q3 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_net_working_capital, base_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / base90.20
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_before_uses, base_2028q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2028q3_campus_timing
2028Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2028q3_campus_cash
2028Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2028q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2028q3_other_capex
2028Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_other_capex, base_2028q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2028q3_software
2028Q3 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / base55.20
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex).
Cash after software
base_2028q3_cash_after_software
2028Q3 / base48.20
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q3_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2028q3_withholding
2028Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2028q3_cash_after_awards
2028Q3 / base38.20
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_after_software, base_2028q3_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
base_2028q4_weight
2028Q4 / base29.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
base_2028q4_axs
2028Q4 / base550.16
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_axs, base_2028q4_weight).
SCDE revenue
base_2028q4_scde
2028Q4 / base224.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(base_fy28_scde, base_2028q4_weight).
Revenue
base_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / base774.91
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_axs, base_2028q4_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / base21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q4_axs_ebitda
2028Q4 / base115.53
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_axs, base_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
base_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / base8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q4_scde_ebitda
2028Q4 / base17.98
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_scde, base_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q4 / base133.51
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_axs_ebitda, base_2028q4_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
base_2028q4_axs_gross_margin
2028Q4 / base36.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
base_2028q4_axs_gross
2028Q4 / base198.06
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_axs, base_2028q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
base_2028q4_scde_gross_margin
2028Q4 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
base_2028q4_scde_gross
2028Q4 / base31.46
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_scde, base_2028q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / base229.52
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_axs_gross, base_2028q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
base_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
base_2028q4_depreciation
2028Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
base_2028q4_amortization
2028Q4 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
base_2028q4_cloud_amort
2028Q4 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
base_2028q4_integration
2028Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2028q4_gaap_costs
2028Q4 / base82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_depreciation, base_2028q4_amortization, base_2028q4_cloud_amort, base_2028q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / base51.51
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
base_2028q4_net_cash_interest
2028Q4 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
base_2028q4_cash_before_uses
2028Q4 / base134.01
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_operating_income, base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_depreciation, base_2028q4_amortization, base_2028q4_cloud_amort, base_2028q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
base_2028q4_net_working_capital
2028Q4 / base-10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / base-5.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_net_working_capital, base_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / base139.01
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_before_uses, base_2028q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
base_2028q4_campus_timing
2028Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
base_2028q4_campus_cash
2028Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, base_2028q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
base_2028q4_other_capex
2028Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
base_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_other_capex, base_2028q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
base_2028q4_software
2028Q4 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / base104.01
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex).
Cash after software
base_2028q4_cash_after_software
2028Q4 / base97.01
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_fcf, base_2028q4_software).
Award withholding cash
base_2028q4_withholding
2028Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
base_2028q4_cash_after_awards
2028Q4 / base87.01
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_after_software, base_2028q4_withholding).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base2,175.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_axs
FY2027 / base1,555.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_axs, base_2027q2_axs, base_2027q3_axs, base_2027q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_scde
FY2027 / base620.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_scde, base_2027q2_scde, base_2027q3_scde, base_2027q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base627.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / base315.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base5.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base203.71
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base178.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
base_fy2027_software
FY2027 / base23.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_software, base_2027q2_software, base_2027q3_software, base_2027q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base25.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_software
FY2027 / base2.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_software, base_2027q2_cash_after_software, base_2027q3_cash_after_software, base_2027q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_awards
FY2027 / base-31.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_awards, base_2027q2_cash_after_awards, base_2027q3_cash_after_awards, base_2027q4_cash_after_awards).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / base2,672.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_axs
FY2028 / base1,897.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_axs, base_2028q2_axs, base_2028q3_axs, base_2028q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_scde
FY2028 / base775.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_scde, base_2028q2_scde, base_2028q3_scde, base_2028q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / base791.46
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2028_adjusted_ebitda
FY2028 / base460.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / base132.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / base357.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
base_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / base140.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_capex, base_2028q2_capex, base_2028q3_capex, base_2028q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
base_fy2028_software
FY2028 / base28.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_software, base_2028q2_software, base_2028q3_software, base_2028q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
base_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / base217.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_software
FY2028 / base189.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_software, base_2028q2_cash_after_software, base_2028q3_cash_after_software, base_2028q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_awards
FY2028 / base149.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_awards, base_2028q2_cash_after_awards, base_2028q3_cash_after_awards, base_2028q4_cash_after_awards).
revenue delivery / midpoint
upside_revenue_factor
FY2027 / upside104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 revenue
upside_fy27_revenue_target
FY2027 / upside2,262.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_revenue_guide, upside_revenue_factor).
First-half revenue
upside_h1_revenue
H1 FY2027 / upside1,017.90
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_revenue_target, h1_revenue_share).
Q2 revenue
upside_q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside537.41
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(upside_h1_revenue, q1_revenue).
H2 revenue
upside_h2_revenue
H2 FY2027 / upside1,244.10
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_fy27_revenue_target, upside_h1_revenue).
adjusted_ebitda delivery / midpoint
upside_adjusted_ebitda_factor
FY2027 / upside112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk annual scenario sensitivity.
FY2027 adjusted_ebitda
upside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target
FY2027 / upside352.80
USD_millions
derived: Annual management midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(fy27_ebitda_guide, upside_adjusted_ebitda_factor).
First-half adjusted_ebitda
upside_h1_adjusted_ebitda
H1 FY2027 / upside117.60
USD_millions
derived: Uses management consolidated first-half cadence. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, h1_ebitda_share).
Q2 adjusted_ebitda
upside_q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside64.21
USD_millions
derived: H1 scenario less actual Q1. Formula: subtract(upside_h1_adjusted_ebitda, q1_adjusted_ebitda).
H2 adjusted_ebitda
upside_h2_adjusted_ebitda
H2 FY2027 / upside235.20
USD_millions
derived: Remaining second-half scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_fy27_adjusted_ebitda_target, upside_h1_adjusted_ebitda).
Remaining FY2027 SCDE revenue
upside_scde_remaining
FY2027 / upside530.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk SCDE sales allocation inside consolidated outlook.
FY2027 SCDE revenue
upside_fy27_scde
FY2027 / upside664.52
USD_millions
derived: Actual Q1 plus modeled remaining periods. Formula: sum(q1_scde, upside_scde_remaining).
FY2027 AxS revenue
upside_fy27_axs
FY2027 / upside1,597.48
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated total less SCDE. Formula: subtract(upside_fy27_revenue_target, upside_fy27_scde).
FY2028 axs growth multiplier
upside_axs_growth
FY2028 / upside132.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 axs sales
upside_fy28_axs
FY2028 / upside2,108.67
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_axs, upside_axs_growth).
FY2028 scde growth multiplier
upside_scde_growth
FY2028 / upside140.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk independent segment growth.
FY2028 scde sales
upside_fy28_scde
FY2028 / upside930.33
USD_millions
derived: No contract award ceiling added a second time. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_scde, upside_scde_growth).
Arithmetic zero
upside_2027q2_zero
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside537.41
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(upside_q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_zero).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside64.21
USD_millions
derived: Q2 remaining first-half scenario. Formula: sum(upside_q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_zero).
SCDE revenue
upside_2027q2_scde
2027Q2 / upside140.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2027q2_axs
2027Q2 / upside397.41
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_axs_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2027q2_axs_gross
2027Q2 / upside151.02
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_axs, upside_2027q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_scde_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2027q2_scde_gross
2027Q2 / upside25.20
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_scde, upside_2027q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside176.22
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_axs_gross, upside_2027q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2027q2_depreciation
2027Q2 / upside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2027q2_amortization
2027Q2 / upside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2027q2_cloud_amort
2027Q2 / upside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2027q2_integration
2027Q2 / upside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_gaap_costs
2027Q2 / upside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_depreciation, upside_2027q2_amortization, upside_2027q2_cloud_amort, upside_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside-17.48
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / upside64.08
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_depreciation, upside_2027q2_amortization, upside_2027q2_cloud_amort, upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2027q2_net_working_capital
2027Q2 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside42.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_net_working_capital, upside_2027q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside22.08
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2027q2_campus_timing
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2027q2_campus_cash
2027Q2 / upside29.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2027q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2027q2_other_capex
2027Q2 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside64.25
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_other_capex, upside_2027q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2027q2_software
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside-42.17
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2027q2_cash_after_software
2027Q2 / upside-48.17
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2027q2_withholding
2027Q2 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2027q2_cash_after_awards
2027Q2 / upside-56.17
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_after_software, upside_2027q2_withholding).
Share of second half
upside_2027q3_h2_share
2027Q3 / upside46.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside572.29
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_revenue, upside_2027q3_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside108.19
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
upside_2027q3_scde
2027Q3 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2027q3_axs
2027Q3 / upside392.29
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_axs_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2027q3_axs_gross
2027Q3 / upside149.07
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_axs, upside_2027q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_scde_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2027q3_scde_gross
2027Q3 / upside32.40
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_scde, upside_2027q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside181.47
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_axs_gross, upside_2027q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2027q3_depreciation
2027Q3 / upside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2027q3_amortization
2027Q3 / upside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2027q3_cloud_amort
2027Q3 / upside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2027q3_integration
2027Q3 / upside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_gaap_costs
2027Q3 / upside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_depreciation, upside_2027q3_amortization, upside_2027q3_cloud_amort, upside_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside26.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / upside108.06
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_depreciation, upside_2027q3_amortization, upside_2027q3_cloud_amort, upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2027q3_net_working_capital
2027Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_net_working_capital, upside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside86.06
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2027q3_campus_timing
2027Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2027q3_campus_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2027q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2027q3_other_capex
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_other_capex, upside_2027q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2027q3_software
2027Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside46.06
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2027q3_cash_after_software
2027Q3 / upside40.06
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2027q3_withholding
2027Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2027q3_cash_after_awards
2027Q3 / upside32.06
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_after_software, upside_2027q3_withholding).
Share of second half
upside_2027q4_h2_share
2027Q4 / upside54.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside671.81
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_revenue, upside_2027q4_h2_share).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside127.01
USD_millions
derived: Desk H2 profit phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_h2_share).
SCDE revenue
upside_2027q4_scde
2027Q4 / upside210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2027q4_axs
2027Q4 / upside461.81
USD_millions
derived: Separate segment allocation within consolidated guide. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_scde).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_axs_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2027q4_axs_gross
2027Q4 / upside175.49
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_axs, upside_2027q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_scde_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2027q4_scde_gross
2027Q4 / upside37.80
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_scde, upside_2027q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside213.29
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_axs_gross, upside_2027q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside11.69
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2027q4_depreciation
2027Q4 / upside20.47
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2027q4_amortization
2027Q4 / upside43.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2027q4_cloud_amort
2027Q4 / upside3.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2027q4_integration
2027Q4 / upside2.63
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_gaap_costs
2027Q4 / upside81.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_depreciation, upside_2027q4_amortization, upside_2027q4_cloud_amort, upside_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside45.32
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / upside126.87
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_depreciation, upside_2027q4_amortization, upside_2027q4_cloud_amort, upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2027q4_net_working_capital
2027Q4 / upside-40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside-38.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_net_working_capital, upside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside164.87
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2027q4_campus_timing
2027Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2027q4_campus_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2027q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2027q4_other_capex
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_other_capex, upside_2027q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2027q4_software
2027Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside124.87
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2027q4_cash_after_software
2027Q4 / upside118.87
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2027q4_withholding
2027Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2027q4_cash_after_awards
2027Q4 / upside110.87
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_after_software, upside_2027q4_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
upside_2028q1_weight
2028Q1 / upside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2028q1_axs
2028Q1 / upside463.91
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_axs, upside_2028q1_weight).
SCDE revenue
upside_2028q1_scde
2028Q1 / upside204.67
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_scde, upside_2028q1_weight).
Revenue
upside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / upside668.58
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_axs, upside_2028q1_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q1_axs_ebitda
2028Q1 / upside106.70
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_axs, upside_2028q1_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q1 / upside12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q1_scde_ebitda
2028Q1 / upside24.56
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_scde, upside_2028q1_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q1 / upside131.26
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_axs_ebitda, upside_2028q1_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q1_axs_gross_margin
2028Q1 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2028q1_axs_gross
2028Q1 / upside176.29
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_axs, upside_2028q1_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q1_scde_gross_margin
2028Q1 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2028q1_scde_gross
2028Q1 / upside36.84
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_scde, upside_2028q1_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / upside213.13
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_axs_gross, upside_2028q1_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2028q1_depreciation
2028Q1 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2028q1_amortization
2028Q1 / upside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2028q1_cloud_amort
2028Q1 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2028q1_integration
2028Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q1_gaap_costs
2028Q1 / upside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_depreciation, upside_2028q1_amortization, upside_2028q1_cloud_amort, upside_2028q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / upside49.26
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q1_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2028q1_net_cash_interest
2028Q1 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2028q1_cash_before_uses
2028Q1 / upside131.76
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_depreciation, upside_2028q1_amortization, upside_2028q1_cloud_amort, upside_2028q1_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2028q1_net_working_capital
2028Q1 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_net_working_capital, upside_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / upside91.76
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_before_uses, upside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2028q1_campus_timing
2028Q1 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2028q1_campus_cash
2028Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2028q1_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2028q1_other_capex
2028Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_other_capex, upside_2028q1_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2028q1_software
2028Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / upside51.76
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2028q1_cash_after_software
2028Q1 / upside44.76
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q1_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2028q1_withholding
2028Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2028q1_cash_after_awards
2028Q1 / upside34.76
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_after_software, upside_2028q1_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
upside_2028q2_weight
2028Q2 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2028q2_axs
2028Q2 / upside484.99
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_axs, upside_2028q2_weight).
SCDE revenue
upside_2028q2_scde
2028Q2 / upside213.98
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_scde, upside_2028q2_weight).
Revenue
upside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / upside698.97
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_axs, upside_2028q2_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q2_axs_ebitda
2028Q2 / upside111.55
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_axs, upside_2028q2_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q2 / upside12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q2_scde_ebitda
2028Q2 / upside25.68
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_scde, upside_2028q2_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q2 / upside137.23
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_axs_ebitda, upside_2028q2_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q2_axs_gross_margin
2028Q2 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2028q2_axs_gross
2028Q2 / upside184.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_axs, upside_2028q2_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q2_scde_gross_margin
2028Q2 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2028q2_scde_gross
2028Q2 / upside38.52
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_scde, upside_2028q2_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / upside222.81
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_axs_gross, upside_2028q2_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2028q2_depreciation
2028Q2 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2028q2_amortization
2028Q2 / upside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2028q2_cloud_amort
2028Q2 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2028q2_integration
2028Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q2_gaap_costs
2028Q2 / upside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_depreciation, upside_2028q2_amortization, upside_2028q2_cloud_amort, upside_2028q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / upside55.23
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q2_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2028q2_net_cash_interest
2028Q2 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2028q2_cash_before_uses
2028Q2 / upside137.73
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_depreciation, upside_2028q2_amortization, upside_2028q2_cloud_amort, upside_2028q2_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2028q2_net_working_capital
2028Q2 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / upside20.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_net_working_capital, upside_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / upside117.73
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_before_uses, upside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2028q2_campus_timing
2028Q2 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2028q2_campus_cash
2028Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2028q2_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2028q2_other_capex
2028Q2 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_other_capex, upside_2028q2_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2028q2_software
2028Q2 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / upside77.73
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2028q2_cash_after_software
2028Q2 / upside70.73
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q2_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2028q2_withholding
2028Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2028q2_cash_after_awards
2028Q2 / upside60.73
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_after_software, upside_2028q2_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
upside_2028q3_weight
2028Q3 / upside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2028q3_axs
2028Q3 / upside548.25
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_axs, upside_2028q3_weight).
SCDE revenue
upside_2028q3_scde
2028Q3 / upside241.89
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_scde, upside_2028q3_weight).
Revenue
upside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / upside790.14
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_axs, upside_2028q3_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q3_axs_ebitda
2028Q3 / upside126.10
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_axs, upside_2028q3_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q3 / upside12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q3_scde_ebitda
2028Q3 / upside29.03
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_scde, upside_2028q3_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q3 / upside155.12
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_axs_ebitda, upside_2028q3_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q3_axs_gross_margin
2028Q3 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2028q3_axs_gross
2028Q3 / upside208.34
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_axs, upside_2028q3_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q3_scde_gross_margin
2028Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2028q3_scde_gross
2028Q3 / upside43.54
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_scde, upside_2028q3_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / upside251.88
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_axs_gross, upside_2028q3_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2028q3_depreciation
2028Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2028q3_amortization
2028Q3 / upside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2028q3_cloud_amort
2028Q3 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2028q3_integration
2028Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q3_gaap_costs
2028Q3 / upside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_depreciation, upside_2028q3_amortization, upside_2028q3_cloud_amort, upside_2028q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / upside73.12
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q3_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2028q3_net_cash_interest
2028Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2028q3_cash_before_uses
2028Q3 / upside155.62
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_depreciation, upside_2028q3_amortization, upside_2028q3_cloud_amort, upside_2028q3_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2028q3_net_working_capital
2028Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_net_working_capital, upside_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / upside135.62
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2028q3_campus_timing
2028Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2028q3_campus_cash
2028Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2028q3_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2028q3_other_capex
2028Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_other_capex, upside_2028q3_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2028q3_software
2028Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / upside95.62
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2028q3_cash_after_software
2028Q3 / upside88.62
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q3_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2028q3_withholding
2028Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2028q3_cash_after_awards
2028Q3 / upside78.62
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_after_software, upside_2028q3_withholding).
FY2028 quarter share
upside_2028q4_weight
2028Q4 / upside29.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Autonomous Systems revenue
upside_2028q4_axs
2028Q4 / upside611.51
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_axs, upside_2028q4_weight).
SCDE revenue
upside_2028q4_scde
2028Q4 / upside269.80
USD_millions
derived: Desk delivery schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_fy28_scde, upside_2028q4_weight).
Revenue
upside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / upside881.31
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive segments. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_axs, upside_2028q4_scde).
axs adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q4_axs_ebitda
2028Q4 / upside140.65
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_axs, upside_2028q4_axs_ebitda_margin).
scde adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin
2028Q4 / upside12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q4_scde_ebitda
2028Q4 / upside32.38
USD_millions
derived: Desk segment economics after allocated corporate costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_scde, upside_2028q4_scde_ebitda_margin).
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda
2028Q4 / upside173.02
USD_millions
derived: No unallocated profit or speculative award value added. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_axs_ebitda, upside_2028q4_scde_ebitda).
axs GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q4_axs_gross_margin
2028Q4 / upside38.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
axs gross profit
upside_2028q4_axs_gross
2028Q4 / upside232.38
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_axs, upside_2028q4_axs_gross_margin).
scde GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q4_scde_gross_margin
2028Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
scde gross profit
upside_2028q4_scde_gross
2028Q4 / upside48.56
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-sales amortization and SBC. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_scde, upside_2028q4_scde_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / upside280.94
USD_millions
derived: Provisional business mix margins, not adjusted gross profit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_axs_gross, upside_2028q4_scde_gross).
Ordinary stock compensation
upside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining SBC calibrated to approximately $40M annual guidance, after unusually low actual Q1.
Depreciation
upside_2028q4_depreciation
2028Q4 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: FY2027 remaining depreciation calibrated to approximately $74M annual reference after $12.6M Q1.
Acquired intangible amortization
upside_2028q4_amortization
2028Q4 / upside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cloud implementation amortization
upside_2028q4_cloud_amort
2028Q4 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash acquisition/integration cost
upside_2028q4_integration
2028Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2028q4_gaap_costs
2028Q4 / upside82.00
USD_millions
derived: Cash integration is not a noncash addback. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_depreciation, upside_2028q4_amortization, upside_2028q4_cloud_amort, upside_2028q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / upside91.02
USD_millions
derived: Excludes nonoperating equity-method income and complete GAAP taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q4_gaap_costs).
Net cash investment income
upside_2028q4_net_cash_interest
2028Q4 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before working capital
upside_2028q4_cash_before_uses
2028Q4 / upside173.52
USD_millions
derived: No financing proceeds or unrealized securities gains. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_operating_income, upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_depreciation, upside_2028q4_amortization, upside_2028q4_cloud_amort, upside_2028q4_net_cash_interest).
Net inventory, billing and other operating cash use
upside_2028q4_net_working_capital
2028Q4 / upside-20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Net sensitivity incorporates inventory and unbilled work after collections and supplier/customer funding; not gross accounts duplicated.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / upside-15.00
USD_millions
derived: No complete balance-sheet forecast. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_net_working_capital, upside_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / upside188.52
USD_millions
derived: Noncash purchase accounting does not itself consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Campus purchase cash share
upside_2028q4_campus_timing
2028Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
August campus purchase cash
upside_2028q4_campus_cash
2028Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported August 21 close lies in FY2027 Q2. Formula: multiply(campus_purchase, upside_2028q4_campus_timing).
Other factory and equipment cash
upside_2028q4_other_capex
2028Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
PP&E cash purchases
upside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Campus cash included once; other capex is a desk allowance including capacity expansion. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_other_capex, upside_2028q4_campus_cash).
Capitalized software investment
upside_2028q4_software
2028Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / upside148.52
USD_millions
derived: PP&E-only historical scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex).
Cash after software
upside_2028q4_cash_after_software
2028Q4 / upside141.52
USD_millions
derived: Includes software investment omitted from PP&E-only cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_fcf, upside_2028q4_software).
Award withholding cash
upside_2028q4_withholding
2028Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash after award withholding
upside_2028q4_cash_after_awards
2028Q4 / upside131.52
USD_millions
derived: Before financing, acquisitions and securities portfolio changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_after_software, upside_2028q4_withholding).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside2,262.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_axs
FY2027 / upside1,597.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_axs, upside_2027q2_axs, upside_2027q3_axs, upside_2027q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_scde
FY2027 / upside664.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_scde, upside_2027q2_scde, upside_2027q3_scde, upside_2027q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside695.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / upside352.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside43.47
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside286.51
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside188.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_software
FY2027 / upside23.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_software, upside_2027q2_software, upside_2027q3_software, upside_2027q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside98.22
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_software
FY2027 / upside74.81
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_software, upside_2027q2_cash_after_software, upside_2027q3_cash_after_software, upside_2027q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_awards
FY2027 / upside41.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(q1_cash_after_awards, upside_2027q2_cash_after_awards, upside_2027q3_cash_after_awards, upside_2027q4_cash_after_awards).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / upside3,039.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue).
Autonomous Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_axs
FY2028 / upside2,108.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_axs, upside_2028q2_axs, upside_2028q3_axs, upside_2028q4_axs).
Space/Cyber/Directed Energy revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_scde
FY2028 / upside930.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_scde, upside_2028q2_scde, upside_2028q3_scde, upside_2028q4_scde).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / upside968.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2028_adjusted_ebitda
FY2028 / upside596.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2028q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / upside268.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / upside533.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo).
PP&E cash purchases ($M)
upside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / upside160.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_capex, upside_2028q2_capex, upside_2028q3_capex, upside_2028q4_capex).
Capitalized software cash ($M)
upside_fy2028_software
FY2028 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_software, upside_2028q2_software, upside_2028q3_software, upside_2028q4_software).
CFO less PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / upside373.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q4_fcf).
Cash after PP&E and software ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_software
FY2028 / upside345.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_software, upside_2028q2_cash_after_software, upside_2028q3_cash_after_software, upside_2028q4_cash_after_software).
Cash after software and award withholding ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_awards
FY2028 / upside305.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_awards, upside_2028q2_cash_after_awards, upside_2028q3_cash_after_awards, upside_2028q4_cash_after_awards).

Model boundaries

Funded demand must convert through a costly production ramp

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can segment recovery and delivery growth finance inventory, software and new production capacity?

Q1 revenue of $480.490M produced $124.599M gross profit, a $10.871M GAAP operating loss and $53.389M adjusted EBITDA. CFO was $13.496M; PP&E cash of $44.033M and capitalized software of $5.417M left negative $35.954M before $9.563M award withholding. Receivable collections supplied $128.346M while inventory consumed $100.310M and unbilled work $68.041M. August 1 funded backlog was $1,457.822M, with 78% expected in the remaining fiscal year; $1,366.5M unfunded backlog is not a firm funded obligation. Cash and marketable investments totaled $675.004M. The August campus purchase cost $29.250M. September guidance remains $2.125B-$2.225B revenue and $305M-$325M adjusted EBITDA, with 45% of sales and one-third of EBITDA in H1. The annual depreciation, amortization and ordinary equity expenses materially reduce GAAP earnings.

The competing explanation

Contract demand can grow while low-margin services, capacity investment and unbilled work weaken cash. SCDE recovery is not established by an award announcement. BlueHalo-related financial-control weaknesses and the prior Space impairment make execution and accounting review central to the thesis.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First sourced segment/cash scenarios using September results and conference cadence, with actual April 30 fiscal year ends.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-1.7+0.3+2.957%
5 sessions-4.8+0.4+6.754%
10 sessions-7.7+0.5+10.156%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-12-09 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-09-10 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  3. [3] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  7. [7] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  10. [10] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  11. [11] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  13. [13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  14. [14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  15. [15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  16. [16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  17. [17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  18. [18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001558370-24-016018, 10-Q filed 2024-12-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001558370-25-002198, 10-Q filed 2025-03-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  21. [21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001558370-25-011973, 10-Q filed 2025-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  26. [26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001558370-24-016018, 10-Q filed 2024-12-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  27. [27] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001558370-25-002198, 10-Q filed 2025-03-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  28. [28] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  29. [29] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001558370-25-011973, 10-Q filed 2025-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  30. [30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  31. [31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  32. [32] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  33. [33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  34. [34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  36. [36] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  37. [37] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  38. [38] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  39. [39] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  40. [40] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  41. [41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-25-119775, 10-Q filed 2025-12-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  42. [42] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-076141, 10-Q/A filed 2026-06-22; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  43. [43] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-078906, 10-K filed 2026-06-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json
  44. [44] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-106423, 10-Q filed 2026-09-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:32+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001368622.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T20:45:33.539990+00:00 · authored cfa8822199db · generated f6a3299618a7 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard