ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$ARRY

Array Technologies, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 3674 · CIK 1820721 · revision 3 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Array supplies solar trackers, foundations, fixed-tilt systems, software and related equipment. Revenue depends on project delivery and customer construction schedules. APA is already consolidated, while AWM adds wire and cable management from its August 31 acquisition. Supplier rebates and manufacturing credits affect costs. Convertible debt, preferred dividends and acquisition-related payments create cash claims beyond operating profit.

Three drivers

  1. Project delivery, backlog conversion and sales mix
  2. Supplier rebates, acquired products and adjusted-to-GAAP costs
  3. Customer collections, acquisition payments and preferred dividends

Thesis

Our view

A broader product portfolio can improve project economics, but the underwriting must separate backlog, recognized sales and collected cash. The existing guidance excludes AWM. Strong adjusted EBITDA can coexist with a cash-heavy acquisition, service-linked seller payments and a preferred dividend transitioning to cash.

What changes it

Compare pre-AWM execution with guidance, then isolate new AWM sales and costs. Improve confidence when collections fund the expanded portfolio and senior claims; reduce it if Q4 concentration, receivables or purchase obligations require sustained new funding.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)231.41275.2†2302.43362.24393.51226.0†2223.43342.14
Gross profit ($M)78.3578.3†676.4797.18105.7519.3†663.0799.68
Operating income ($M)-132.79-142.3†1027.31146.41245.59-148.1†107.11134.812
Net income ($M)-141.413-126.9†1416.71543.31633.513-145.7†142.01524.316
EPS, diluted ($)-1.02170.02180.19190.1217-0.09180.0519
Diluted shares (M)151.920152.821153.122154.120153.021155.722
Cash ($M)332.423363.024348.325377.326221.527244.428200.729307.328
Long-term debt ($M)648.330646.631644.532657.633658.434658.735657.036657.735
Cash from operations ($M)44.9†3757.6†38-13.13943.8†4027.4†3743.6†38-29.439121.3†40
Capex ($M)1.1†411.7†422.4436.6†445.5†417.5†427.5437.6†44
Free cash flow ($M)43.9†4555.9†46-15.4†4737.2†4821.9†4536.2†46-36.9†47113.6†48

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q3325.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4582.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1358.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2424.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Tracker delivery, acquired wire management and senior cash claims

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Keep the August revenue/EBITDA outlook on its explicitly pre-AWM perimeter. Remaining H2 core sales are annual guidance less actual H1; Q3 follows the separate quarterly range and Q4 is the residual. Add AWM only from its August 31 close using an explicit one-month Q3 assumption. Bridge adjusted EBITDA through depreciation, equity pay, service-linked acquisition expense and cash costs to GAAP profit. Reconcile cash timing, then show capex, preferred dividends, purchase consideration and contingent earnouts separately.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
2026 revenue excluding AWM midpointFY20261,450.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q3 revenue excluding AWM midpoint2026Q3320.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding AWM midpointFY2026220.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
backlogJune-August 20262,500.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05
awm ttm revenueJune-August 202660.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-07-16
awm cashJune-August 2026165.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-31
awm service maxJune-August 202610.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-07-16
awm earnout maxJune-August 202640.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-07-16
cashJune-August 2026307.30reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05
June cash less August purchase onlyMechanical reference142.30derived. Not an actual closing cash balance: intervening operations, preferred cash and APA payments are excluded.
debt 2028June-August 2026325.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05
debt 2031June-August 2026345.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05
preferred liquidationJune-August 2026506.40reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05
Total vendor-rebate receivableJune 2026142.70derived. Already recognized cost benefits; collection timing differs.
H1 CFO less capexH1 202676.71derived. Company cash capex definition.
H1 common incomeH1 2026-5.10reported. Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Source · 2026-08-05
H1 net incomeH1 202626.34reported. Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Source · 2026-08-05
apa service totalJune-August 202640.00reported. AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Source · 2026-08-05

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex ($M)Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)Post-close AWM revenue ($M)Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Upfront acquisition cash ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
2026Q3-34.46-42.468.00304.004.00300.0072.387.9734.20165.003.78-215.43
2026Q4-84.02-92.028.00468.5214.00454.5286.067.9749.110.0016.86-103.99
2027Q185.0876.089.00291.2014.00277.2070.577.9740.240.008.6968.11
2027Q223.5714.579.00345.0015.00330.0084.507.9747.400.0015.556.61
FY2026-26.62-57.7731.141,338.0018.001,320.00321.0515.94175.40165.0062.52-245.28
FY2027146.04110.0436.001,382.0062.001,320.00338.9432.88190.200.0069.7073.16

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex ($M)Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)Post-close AWM revenue ($M)Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Upfront acquisition cash ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
2026Q3-5.41-13.418.00325.005.00320.0084.607.9748.25165.0017.83-186.38
2026Q4-14.96-22.968.00582.5218.00564.52139.497.9788.170.0055.92-38.93
2027Q1110.70101.709.00358.0417.00341.0495.937.9760.860.0029.3189.73
2027Q257.8048.809.00424.0018.00406.00114.317.9771.620.0039.7740.83
FY202671.4940.3431.141,473.0023.001,450.00386.7015.94228.51165.00115.63-151.17
FY2027279.17243.1736.001,701.0077.001,624.00459.8432.88288.330.00167.83198.29

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex ($M)Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)Post-close AWM revenue ($M)Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Upfront acquisition cash ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
2026Q313.145.148.00346.006.00340.0094.027.9756.80165.0026.38-167.83
2026Q428.7820.788.00665.5221.00644.52175.157.97111.910.0079.660.81
2027Q1118.55109.559.00411.6021.00390.60115.547.9778.710.0047.1693.58
2027Q284.0875.089.00488.0023.00465.00137.787.9792.900.0061.0567.11
FY2026133.78102.6331.141,577.0027.001,550.00431.7815.94260.80165.00147.92-92.88
FY2027369.44333.4436.001,957.0097.001,860.00553.7432.88373.600.00253.10280.56
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared565.48
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 core revenue
h1_core_revenue
H1 2026 / shared565.48
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 awm revenue
h1_awm_revenue
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Pre-AWM consolidated perimeter. No preferred cash dividends or acquisitions paid in H1. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 adjusted ebitda
h1_adjusted_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared92.09
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 2026 / shared162.61
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared41.87
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared91.86
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared15.14
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 preferred cash
h1_preferred_cash
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Pre-AWM consolidated perimeter. No preferred cash dividends or acquisitions paid in H1. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 acquisition cash
h1_acquisition_cash
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Pre-AWM consolidated perimeter. No preferred cash dividends or acquisitions paid in H1. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared8.52
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 da
h1_da
H1 2026 / shared31.08
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 acquisition expense
h1_acquisition_expense
H1 2026 / shared10.76
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 fair value
h1_fair_value
H1 2026 / shared-0.14
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 common income
h1_common_income
H1 2026 / shared-5.10
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 net income
h1_net_income
H1 2026 / shared26.34
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 preferred economic
h1_preferred_economic
H1 2026 / shared31.45
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 contingent cash
h1_contingent_cash
H1 2026 / shared2.57
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 adjusted gp
h1_adjusted_gp
H1 2026 / shared173.92
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 amount converted to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 CFO less capex
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared76.71
USD_millions
derived: Company cash capex definition. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 cash after capex and earnouts
h1_cash_after_claims
H1 2026 / shared74.14
USD_millions
derived: Before other financing cash and debt principal. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_contingent_cash).
cash
cash
June-August 2026 / shared307.30
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
debt 2028
debt_2028
June-August 2026 / shared325.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
debt 2031
debt_2031
June-August 2026 / shared345.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
preferred liquidation
preferred_liquidation
June-August 2026 / shared506.40
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
rebate current
rebate_current
June-August 2026 / shared51.40
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
rebate long
rebate_long
June-August 2026 / shared91.30
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
contract assets
contract_assets
June-August 2026 / shared98.20
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
backlog
backlog
June-August 2026 / shared2,500.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
awm ttm revenue
awm_ttm_revenue
June-August 2026 / shared60.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-07-16
awm cash
awm_cash
June-August 2026 / shared165.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
awm service max
awm_service_max
June-August 2026 / shared10.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-07-16
awm earnout max
awm_earnout_max
June-August 2026 / shared40.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-07-16
apa service total
apa_service_total
June-August 2026 / shared40.00
USD_millions
reported: AWM trailing revenue was nearly $60M; deal/service maxima are not immediately payable. All amounts in millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June cash less August purchase only
cash_less_purchase
Mechanical reference / shared142.30
USD_millions
derived: Not an actual closing cash balance: intervening operations, preferred cash and APA payments are excluded. Formula: subtract(cash, awm_cash).
Total vendor-rebate receivable
rebate_receivable
June 2026 / shared142.70
USD_millions
derived: Already recognized cost benefits; collection timing differs. Formula: sum(rebate_current, rebate_long).
2026 revenue excluding AWM low
annual_guide_low
FY2026 / shared1,400.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
2026 revenue excluding AWM high
annual_guide_high
FY2026 / shared1,500.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
2026 revenue excluding AWM endpoint sum
annual_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared2,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(annual_guide_low, annual_guide_high).
2026 revenue excluding AWM midpoint
annual_guide
FY2026 / shared1,450.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(annual_guide_sum, two).
Q3 revenue excluding AWM low
q3_guide_low
2026Q3 / shared310.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Q3 revenue excluding AWM high
q3_guide_high
2026Q3 / shared330.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Q3 revenue excluding AWM endpoint sum
q3_guide_sum
2026Q3 / shared640.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_guide_low, q3_guide_high).
Q3 revenue excluding AWM midpoint
q3_guide
2026Q3 / shared320.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_guide_sum, two).
2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding AWM low
ebitda_guide_low
FY2026 / shared210.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding AWM high
ebitda_guide_high
FY2026 / shared230.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding AWM endpoint sum
ebitda_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared440.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(ebitda_guide_low, ebitda_guide_high).
2026 adjusted EBITDA excluding AWM midpoint
ebitda_guide
FY2026 / shared220.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(ebitda_guide_sum, two).
Annual pre-AWM revenue scenario
downside_core_target
FY2026 / downside1,320.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guided midpoint; other cases are desk delivery sensitivities.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA scenario
downside_eb_target
FY2026 / downside170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guidance midpoint; no AWM in this amount.
Annual adjusted gross margin
downside_gm
FY2026 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Base 27.5% is midpoint of 27%-28% company range.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_gp_target
FY2026 / downside336.60
USD_millions
derived: Includes rebates once through product economics. Formula: multiply(downside_core_target, downside_gm).
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2026q3_core_revenue
2026Q3 / downside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2026q3_awm_revenue
2026Q3 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside304.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2026q3_core_eb_margin
2026Q3 / downside11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q3_core_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside33.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
downside_2026q3_core_gp_margin
2026Q3 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q3 / downside76.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2026q3_awm_eb_margin
2026Q3 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2026q3_awm_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside1.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_awm_revenue, downside_2026q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside34.20
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_core_ebitda, downside_2026q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2026q3_awm_gm
2026Q3 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2026q3_awm_gp
2026Q3 / downside1.88
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_awm_revenue, downside_2026q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2026q3_cogs_amort
2026Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2026q3_combined_gp
2026Q3 / downside78.38
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2026q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside72.38
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_combined_gp, downside_2026q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2026q3_apa_service_expense
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2026q3_awm_service_expense
2026Q3 / downside0.42
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2026q3_retention_expense
2026Q3 / downside5.42
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_apa_service_expense, downside_2026q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2026q3_special_cash
2026Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2026q3_other_da
2026Q3 / downside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside17.50
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cogs_amort, downside_2026q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q3 / downside30.42
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_retention_expense, downside_2026q3_special_cash, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside3.78
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2026q3_apa_service_cash
2026Q3 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2026q3_awm_service_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2026q3_debt_coupon
2026Q3 / downside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2026q3_investment_income
2026Q3 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / downside32.90
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_retention_expense, downside_2026q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2026q3_other_interest
2026Q3 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2026q3_no_extra_special
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside32.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_apa_service_cash, downside_2026q3_awm_service_cash, downside_2026q3_debt_coupon, downside_2026q3_other_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / downside0.54
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2026q3_wc_source
2026Q3 / downside-35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside-34.46
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-42.46
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2026q3_preferred_base
2026Q3 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2026q3_preferred_rate
2026Q3 / downside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2026q3_quarter
2026Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2026q3_preferred_cash
2026Q3 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_preferred_base, downside_2026q3_preferred_rate, downside_2026q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / downside165.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2026q3_contingent_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2026q3_below_fcf
2026Q3 / downside172.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_preferred_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / downside-215.43
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_below_fcf).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM revenue
downside_2026q4_through_q3
2026Q4 / downside865.48
USD_millions
derived: Preserves actual H1. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_core_revenue).
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2026q4_core_revenue
2026Q4 / downside454.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 delivery requirement to meet annual scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_core_target, downside_2026q4_through_q3).
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2026q4_awm_revenue
2026Q4 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside468.52
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_core_revenue, downside_2026q4_awm_revenue).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM EBITDA
downside_2026q4_eb_through_q3
2026Q4 / downside125.09
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus modeled Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_core_ebitda).
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_core_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside44.91
USD_millions
derived: Q4 residual to annual EBITDA scenario. Formula: subtract(downside_eb_target, downside_2026q4_eb_through_q3).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM adjusted GP
downside_2026q4_gp_through_q3
2026Q4 / downside250.42
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_gp, downside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp).
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q4 / downside86.18
USD_millions
derived: Annual margin requirement drives the Q4 residual. Formula: subtract(downside_gp_target, downside_2026q4_gp_through_q3).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2026q4_awm_eb_margin
2026Q4 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2026q4_awm_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside4.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_awm_revenue, downside_2026q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside49.11
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_core_ebitda, downside_2026q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2026q4_awm_gm
2026Q4 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2026q4_awm_gp
2026Q4 / downside6.58
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_awm_revenue, downside_2026q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2026q4_cogs_amort
2026Q4 / downside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2026q4_combined_gp
2026Q4 / downside92.76
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2026q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside86.06
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_combined_gp, downside_2026q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2026q4_apa_service_expense
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2026q4_awm_service_expense
2026Q4 / downside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2026q4_retention_expense
2026Q4 / downside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_apa_service_expense, downside_2026q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2026q4_special_cash
2026Q4 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside5.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2026q4_other_da
2026Q4 / downside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside18.20
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cogs_amort, downside_2026q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q4 / downside32.25
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_retention_expense, downside_2026q4_special_cash, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside16.86
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2026q4_apa_service_cash
2026Q4 / downside13.81
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2026q4_awm_service_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2026q4_debt_coupon
2026Q4 / downside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2026q4_investment_income
2026Q4 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / downside47.81
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_retention_expense, downside_2026q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2026q4_other_interest
2026Q4 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2026q4_no_extra_special
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside31.83
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_apa_service_cash, downside_2026q4_awm_service_cash, downside_2026q4_debt_coupon, downside_2026q4_other_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / downside15.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2026q4_wc_source
2026Q4 / downside-100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside-84.02
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-92.02
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2026q4_preferred_base
2026Q4 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2026q4_preferred_rate
2026Q4 / downside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2026q4_quarter
2026Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2026q4_preferred_cash
2026Q4 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_preferred_base, downside_2026q4_preferred_rate, downside_2026q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2026q4_contingent_cash
2026Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2026q4_below_fcf
2026Q4 / downside11.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_preferred_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / downside-103.99
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
downside_2027q1_core_growth
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
downside_2027q1_core_season
2027Q1 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2027q1_core_revenue
2027Q1 / downside277.20
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(downside_core_target, downside_2027q1_core_growth, downside_2027q1_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2027q1_awm_revenue
2027Q1 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside291.20
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q1_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q1_core_eb_margin
2027Q1 / downside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_core_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside36.04
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q1_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
downside_2027q1_core_gp_margin
2027Q1 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q1 / downside70.69
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q1_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q1_awm_eb_margin
2027Q1 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2027q1_awm_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside4.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_awm_revenue, downside_2027q1_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside40.24
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_ebitda, downside_2027q1_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2027q1_awm_gm
2027Q1 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2027q1_awm_gp
2027Q1 / downside6.58
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_awm_revenue, downside_2027q1_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2027q1_cogs_amort
2027Q1 / downside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2027q1_combined_gp
2027Q1 / downside77.27
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2027q1_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside70.57
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_combined_gp, downside_2027q1_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q1_apa_service_expense
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q1_awm_service_expense
2027Q1 / downside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2027q1_retention_expense
2027Q1 / downside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_apa_service_expense, downside_2027q1_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2027q1_special_cash
2027Q1 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside5.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2027q1_other_da
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cogs_amort, downside_2027q1_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q1 / downside31.55
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_retention_expense, downside_2027q1_special_cash, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside8.69
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2027q1_apa_service_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2027q1_awm_service_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2027q1_debt_coupon
2027Q1 / downside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q1_investment_income
2027Q1 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / downside40.44
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_retention_expense, downside_2027q1_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2027q1_other_interest
2027Q1 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2027q1_no_extra_special
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside15.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_apa_service_cash, downside_2027q1_awm_service_cash, downside_2027q1_debt_coupon, downside_2027q1_other_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / downside25.08
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2027q1_wc_source
2027Q1 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside85.08
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q1_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside76.08
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2027q1_preferred_base
2027Q1 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2027q1_preferred_rate
2027Q1 / downside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2027q1_quarter
2027Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_preferred_base, downside_2027q1_preferred_rate, downside_2027q1_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2027q1_contingent_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2027q1_below_fcf
2027Q1 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_cash, downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q1_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside68.11
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
downside_2027q2_core_growth
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
downside_2027q2_core_season
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2027q2_core_revenue
2027Q2 / downside330.00
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(downside_core_target, downside_2027q2_core_growth, downside_2027q2_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2027q2_awm_revenue
2027Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside345.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q2_core_eb_margin
2027Q2 / downside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_core_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside42.90
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
downside_2027q2_core_gp_margin
2027Q2 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q2 / downside84.15
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q2_awm_eb_margin
2027Q2 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2027q2_awm_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside4.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_awm_revenue, downside_2027q2_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside47.40
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_core_ebitda, downside_2027q2_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2027q2_awm_gm
2027Q2 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2027q2_awm_gp
2027Q2 / downside7.05
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_awm_revenue, downside_2027q2_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2027q2_cogs_amort
2027Q2 / downside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2027q2_combined_gp
2027Q2 / downside91.20
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2027q2_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside84.50
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_combined_gp, downside_2027q2_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q2_apa_service_expense
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q2_awm_service_expense
2027Q2 / downside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2027q2_retention_expense
2027Q2 / downside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_apa_service_expense, downside_2027q2_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2027q2_special_cash
2027Q2 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside5.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2027q2_other_da
2027Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cogs_amort, downside_2027q2_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q2 / downside31.85
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_retention_expense, downside_2027q2_special_cash, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside15.55
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2027q2_apa_service_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2027q2_awm_service_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2027q2_debt_coupon
2027Q2 / downside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q2_investment_income
2027Q2 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / downside47.60
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_retention_expense, downside_2027q2_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2027q2_other_interest
2027Q2 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2027q2_no_extra_special
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside14.03
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_apa_service_cash, downside_2027q2_awm_service_cash, downside_2027q2_debt_coupon, downside_2027q2_other_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / downside33.57
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2027q2_wc_source
2027Q2 / downside-10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside23.57
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q2_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside14.57
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2027q2_preferred_base
2027Q2 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2027q2_preferred_rate
2027Q2 / downside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2027q2_quarter
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_preferred_base, downside_2027q2_preferred_rate, downside_2027q2_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2027q2_contingent_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2027q2_below_fcf
2027Q2 / downside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_preferred_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside6.61
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
downside_2027q3_core_growth
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
downside_2027q3_core_season
2027Q3 / downside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2027q3_core_revenue
2027Q3 / downside316.80
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(downside_core_target, downside_2027q3_core_growth, downside_2027q3_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2027q3_awm_revenue
2027Q3 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside332.80
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q3_core_eb_margin
2027Q3 / downside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_core_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside41.18
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
downside_2027q3_core_gp_margin
2027Q3 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q3 / downside80.78
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q3_awm_eb_margin
2027Q3 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2027q3_awm_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside4.80
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_awm_revenue, downside_2027q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside45.98
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_core_ebitda, downside_2027q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2027q3_awm_gm
2027Q3 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2027q3_awm_gp
2027Q3 / downside7.52
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_awm_revenue, downside_2027q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2027q3_cogs_amort
2027Q3 / downside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2027q3_combined_gp
2027Q3 / downside88.30
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2027q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside81.60
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_combined_gp, downside_2027q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q3_apa_service_expense
2027Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q3_awm_service_expense
2027Q3 / downside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2027q3_retention_expense
2027Q3 / downside3.75
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_apa_service_expense, downside_2027q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2027q3_special_cash
2027Q3 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside6.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2027q3_other_da
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cogs_amort, downside_2027q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q3 / downside29.65
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_retention_expense, downside_2027q3_special_cash, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside16.33
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2027q3_apa_service_cash
2027Q3 / downside6.19
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2027q3_awm_service_cash
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2027q3_debt_coupon
2027Q3 / downside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q3_investment_income
2027Q3 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / downside46.18
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_retention_expense, downside_2027q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2027q3_other_interest
2027Q3 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2027q3_no_extra_special
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside28.55
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_apa_service_cash, downside_2027q3_awm_service_cash, downside_2027q3_debt_coupon, downside_2027q3_other_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / downside17.63
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2027q3_wc_source
2027Q3 / downside-25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-7.37
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-16.37
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2027q3_preferred_base
2027Q3 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2027q3_preferred_rate
2027Q3 / downside6.5%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2027q3_quarter
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / downside8.33
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_preferred_base, downside_2027q3_preferred_rate, downside_2027q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2027q3_contingent_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2027q3_below_fcf
2027Q3 / downside8.33
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_preferred_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside-24.70
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
downside_2027q4_core_growth
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
downside_2027q4_core_season
2027Q4 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
downside_2027q4_core_revenue
2027Q4 / downside396.00
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(downside_core_target, downside_2027q4_core_growth, downside_2027q4_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
downside_2027q4_awm_revenue
2027Q4 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside413.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q4_core_eb_margin
2027Q4 / downside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_core_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside51.48
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
downside_2027q4_core_gp_margin
2027Q4 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q4 / downside100.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
downside_2027q4_awm_eb_margin
2027Q4 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
downside_2027q4_awm_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside5.10
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_awm_revenue, downside_2027q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside56.58
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_core_ebitda, downside_2027q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
downside_2027q4_awm_gm
2027Q4 / downside47.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
downside_2027q4_awm_gp
2027Q4 / downside7.99
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_awm_revenue, downside_2027q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
downside_2027q4_cogs_amort
2027Q4 / downside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
downside_2027q4_combined_gp
2027Q4 / downside108.97
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp, downside_2027q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside102.27
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_combined_gp, downside_2027q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q4_apa_service_expense
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
downside_2027q4_awm_service_expense
2027Q4 / downside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
downside_2027q4_retention_expense
2027Q4 / downside1.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_apa_service_expense, downside_2027q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
downside_2027q4_special_cash
2027Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
downside_2027q4_other_da
2027Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cogs_amort, downside_2027q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
downside_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q4 / downside27.45
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_retention_expense, downside_2027q4_special_cash, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside29.13
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
downside_2027q4_apa_service_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
downside_2027q4_awm_service_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
downside_2027q4_debt_coupon
2027Q4 / downside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
downside_2027q4_investment_income
2027Q4 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / downside56.78
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_retention_expense, downside_2027q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
downside_2027q4_other_interest
2027Q4 / downside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
downside_2027q4_no_extra_special
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside17.02
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_apa_service_cash, downside_2027q4_awm_service_cash, downside_2027q4_debt_coupon, downside_2027q4_other_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / downside39.76
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
downside_2027q4_wc_source
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside44.76
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside35.76
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
downside_2027q4_preferred_base
2027Q4 / downside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
downside_2027q4_preferred_rate
2027Q4 / downside6.8%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
downside_2027q4_quarter
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
downside_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / downside8.61
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_preferred_base, downside_2027q4_preferred_rate, downside_2027q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
downside_2027q4_contingent_cash
2027Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
downside_2027q4_below_fcf
2027Q4 / downside12.61
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_preferred_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside23.15
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_below_fcf).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside1,338.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
downside_fy2026_core_revenue
FY2026 / downside1,320.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_awm_revenue
FY2026 / downside18.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_awm_revenue, downside_2026q3_awm_revenue, downside_2026q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / downside175.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside321.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside62.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside-26.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside31.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-57.77
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
downside_fy2026_preferred_cash
FY2026 / downside15.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_cash, downside_2026q3_preferred_cash, downside_2026q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / downside165.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / downside-245.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside1,382.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
downside_fy2027_core_revenue
FY2027 / downside1,320.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_awm_revenue
FY2027 / downside62.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_awm_revenue, downside_2027q2_awm_revenue, downside_2027q3_awm_revenue, downside_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / downside190.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside338.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside69.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside146.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside36.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside110.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
downside_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / downside32.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_cash, downside_2027q2_preferred_cash, downside_2027q3_preferred_cash, downside_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside73.16
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Annual pre-AWM revenue scenario
base_core_target
FY2026 / base1,450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guided midpoint; other cases are desk delivery sensitivities.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA scenario
base_eb_target
FY2026 / base220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guidance midpoint; no AWM in this amount.
Annual adjusted gross margin
base_gm
FY2026 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Base 27.5% is midpoint of 27%-28% company range.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_gp_target
FY2026 / base398.75
USD_millions
derived: Includes rebates once through product economics. Formula: multiply(base_core_target, base_gm).
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2026q3_core_revenue
2026Q3 / base320.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2026q3_awm_revenue
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base325.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
base_2026q3_core_eb_margin
2026Q3 / base14.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q3_core_ebitda
2026Q3 / base46.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
base_2026q3_core_gp_margin
2026Q3 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q3 / base88.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2026q3_awm_eb_margin
2026Q3 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2026q3_awm_ebitda
2026Q3 / base1.85
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_awm_revenue, base_2026q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / base48.25
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_core_ebitda, base_2026q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2026q3_awm_gm
2026Q3 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2026q3_awm_gp
2026Q3 / base2.60
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_awm_revenue, base_2026q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2026q3_cogs_amort
2026Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2026q3_combined_gp
2026Q3 / base90.60
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp, base_2026q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base84.60
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_combined_gp, base_2026q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2026q3_apa_service_expense
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2026q3_awm_service_expense
2026Q3 / base0.42
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2026q3_retention_expense
2026Q3 / base5.42
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_apa_service_expense, base_2026q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2026q3_special_cash
2026Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2026q3_other_da
2026Q3 / base11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base17.50
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cogs_amort, base_2026q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q3 / base30.42
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_retention_expense, base_2026q3_special_cash, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base17.83
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2026q3_apa_service_cash
2026Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2026q3_awm_service_cash
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2026q3_debt_coupon
2026Q3 / base4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2026q3_investment_income
2026Q3 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / base46.95
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_retention_expense, base_2026q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2026q3_other_interest
2026Q3 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2026q3_no_extra_special
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base32.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_apa_service_cash, base_2026q3_awm_service_cash, base_2026q3_debt_coupon, base_2026q3_other_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / base14.59
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_uses, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2026q3_wc_source
2026Q3 / base-20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base-5.41
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_before_wc, base_2026q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-13.41
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2026q3_preferred_base
2026Q3 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2026q3_preferred_rate
2026Q3 / base6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2026q3_quarter
2026Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2026q3_preferred_cash
2026Q3 / base7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_preferred_base, base_2026q3_preferred_rate, base_2026q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / base165.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2026q3_contingent_cash
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2026q3_below_fcf
2026Q3 / base172.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_preferred_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / base-186.38
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_below_fcf).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM revenue
base_2026q4_through_q3
2026Q4 / base885.48
USD_millions
derived: Preserves actual H1. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_core_revenue).
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2026q4_core_revenue
2026Q4 / base564.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 delivery requirement to meet annual scenario. Formula: subtract(base_core_target, base_2026q4_through_q3).
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2026q4_awm_revenue
2026Q4 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base582.52
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_core_revenue, base_2026q4_awm_revenue).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM EBITDA
base_2026q4_eb_through_q3
2026Q4 / base138.49
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus modeled Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_core_ebitda).
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_core_ebitda
2026Q4 / base81.51
USD_millions
derived: Q4 residual to annual EBITDA scenario. Formula: subtract(base_eb_target, base_2026q4_eb_through_q3).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM adjusted GP
base_2026q4_gp_through_q3
2026Q4 / base261.92
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_gp, base_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp).
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q4 / base136.83
USD_millions
derived: Annual margin requirement drives the Q4 residual. Formula: subtract(base_gp_target, base_2026q4_gp_through_q3).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2026q4_awm_eb_margin
2026Q4 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2026q4_awm_ebitda
2026Q4 / base6.66
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_awm_revenue, base_2026q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / base88.17
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_core_ebitda, base_2026q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2026q4_awm_gm
2026Q4 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2026q4_awm_gp
2026Q4 / base9.36
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_awm_revenue, base_2026q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2026q4_cogs_amort
2026Q4 / base6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2026q4_combined_gp
2026Q4 / base146.19
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp, base_2026q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base139.49
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_combined_gp, base_2026q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2026q4_apa_service_expense
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2026q4_awm_service_expense
2026Q4 / base1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2026q4_retention_expense
2026Q4 / base6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_apa_service_expense, base_2026q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2026q4_special_cash
2026Q4 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base5.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2026q4_other_da
2026Q4 / base11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base18.20
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cogs_amort, base_2026q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q4 / base32.25
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_retention_expense, base_2026q4_special_cash, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base55.92
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2026q4_apa_service_cash
2026Q4 / base13.81
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2026q4_awm_service_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2026q4_debt_coupon
2026Q4 / base1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2026q4_investment_income
2026Q4 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / base86.87
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_retention_expense, base_2026q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2026q4_other_interest
2026Q4 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2026q4_no_extra_special
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base31.83
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_apa_service_cash, base_2026q4_awm_service_cash, base_2026q4_debt_coupon, base_2026q4_other_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / base55.04
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_uses, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2026q4_wc_source
2026Q4 / base-70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base-14.96
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_before_wc, base_2026q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base-22.96
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2026q4_preferred_base
2026Q4 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2026q4_preferred_rate
2026Q4 / base6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2026q4_quarter
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2026q4_preferred_cash
2026Q4 / base7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_preferred_base, base_2026q4_preferred_rate, base_2026q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2026q4_contingent_cash
2026Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2026q4_below_fcf
2026Q4 / base15.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_preferred_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / base-38.93
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
base_2027q1_core_growth
2027Q1 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
base_2027q1_core_season
2027Q1 / base21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2027q1_core_revenue
2027Q1 / base341.04
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(base_core_target, base_2027q1_core_growth, base_2027q1_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2027q1_awm_revenue
2027Q1 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base358.04
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q1_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q1_core_eb_margin
2027Q1 / base16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_core_ebitda
2027Q1 / base54.57
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q1_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
base_2027q1_core_gp_margin
2027Q1 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q1 / base93.79
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q1_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q1_awm_eb_margin
2027Q1 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2027q1_awm_ebitda
2027Q1 / base6.29
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_awm_revenue, base_2027q1_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / base60.86
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_ebitda, base_2027q1_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2027q1_awm_gm
2027Q1 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2027q1_awm_gp
2027Q1 / base8.84
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_awm_revenue, base_2027q1_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2027q1_cogs_amort
2027Q1 / base6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2027q1_combined_gp
2027Q1 / base102.63
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp, base_2027q1_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base95.93
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_combined_gp, base_2027q1_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q1_apa_service_expense
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q1_awm_service_expense
2027Q1 / base1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2027q1_retention_expense
2027Q1 / base6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_apa_service_expense, base_2027q1_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2027q1_special_cash
2027Q1 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base5.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2027q1_other_da
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cogs_amort, base_2027q1_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q1 / base31.55
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_retention_expense, base_2027q1_special_cash, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base29.31
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2027q1_apa_service_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2027q1_awm_service_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2027q1_debt_coupon
2027Q1 / base4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2027q1_investment_income
2027Q1 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / base61.06
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_retention_expense, base_2027q1_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2027q1_other_interest
2027Q1 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2027q1_no_extra_special
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base15.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_apa_service_cash, base_2027q1_awm_service_cash, base_2027q1_debt_coupon, base_2027q1_other_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / base45.70
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_uses, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2027q1_wc_source
2027Q1 / base65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base110.70
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_before_wc, base_2027q1_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base101.70
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2027q1_preferred_base
2027Q1 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2027q1_preferred_rate
2027Q1 / base6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2027q1_quarter
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / base7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_preferred_base, base_2027q1_preferred_rate, base_2027q1_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2027q1_contingent_cash
2027Q1 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2027q1_below_fcf
2027Q1 / base11.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_cash, base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q1_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base89.73
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
base_2027q2_core_growth
2027Q2 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
base_2027q2_core_season
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2027q2_core_revenue
2027Q2 / base406.00
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(base_core_target, base_2027q2_core_growth, base_2027q2_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2027q2_awm_revenue
2027Q2 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base424.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q2_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q2_core_eb_margin
2027Q2 / base16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_core_ebitda
2027Q2 / base64.96
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q2_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
base_2027q2_core_gp_margin
2027Q2 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q2 / base111.65
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q2_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q2_awm_eb_margin
2027Q2 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2027q2_awm_ebitda
2027Q2 / base6.66
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_awm_revenue, base_2027q2_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / base71.62
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_core_ebitda, base_2027q2_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2027q2_awm_gm
2027Q2 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2027q2_awm_gp
2027Q2 / base9.36
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_awm_revenue, base_2027q2_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2027q2_cogs_amort
2027Q2 / base6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2027q2_combined_gp
2027Q2 / base121.01
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp, base_2027q2_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base114.31
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_combined_gp, base_2027q2_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q2_apa_service_expense
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q2_awm_service_expense
2027Q2 / base1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2027q2_retention_expense
2027Q2 / base6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_apa_service_expense, base_2027q2_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2027q2_special_cash
2027Q2 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base5.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2027q2_other_da
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cogs_amort, base_2027q2_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q2 / base31.85
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_retention_expense, base_2027q2_special_cash, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base39.77
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2027q2_apa_service_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2027q2_awm_service_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2027q2_debt_coupon
2027Q2 / base1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2027q2_investment_income
2027Q2 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / base71.82
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_retention_expense, base_2027q2_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2027q2_other_interest
2027Q2 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2027q2_no_extra_special
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base14.03
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_apa_service_cash, base_2027q2_awm_service_cash, base_2027q2_debt_coupon, base_2027q2_other_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / base57.80
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_uses, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2027q2_wc_source
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base57.80
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_before_wc, base_2027q2_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base48.80
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2027q2_preferred_base
2027Q2 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2027q2_preferred_rate
2027Q2 / base6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2027q2_quarter
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / base7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_preferred_base, base_2027q2_preferred_rate, base_2027q2_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2027q2_contingent_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2027q2_below_fcf
2027Q2 / base7.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_preferred_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base40.83
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
base_2027q3_core_growth
2027Q3 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
base_2027q3_core_season
2027Q3 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2027q3_core_revenue
2027Q3 / base389.76
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(base_core_target, base_2027q3_core_growth, base_2027q3_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2027q3_awm_revenue
2027Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base409.76
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q3_core_eb_margin
2027Q3 / base16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_core_ebitda
2027Q3 / base62.36
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
base_2027q3_core_gp_margin
2027Q3 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q3 / base107.18
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q3_awm_eb_margin
2027Q3 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2027q3_awm_ebitda
2027Q3 / base7.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_awm_revenue, base_2027q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / base69.76
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_core_ebitda, base_2027q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2027q3_awm_gm
2027Q3 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2027q3_awm_gp
2027Q3 / base10.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_awm_revenue, base_2027q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2027q3_cogs_amort
2027Q3 / base6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2027q3_combined_gp
2027Q3 / base117.58
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp, base_2027q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base110.88
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_combined_gp, base_2027q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q3_apa_service_expense
2027Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q3_awm_service_expense
2027Q3 / base1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2027q3_retention_expense
2027Q3 / base3.75
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_apa_service_expense, base_2027q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2027q3_special_cash
2027Q3 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base6.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2027q3_other_da
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cogs_amort, base_2027q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q3 / base29.65
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_retention_expense, base_2027q3_special_cash, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base40.11
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2027q3_apa_service_cash
2027Q3 / base6.19
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2027q3_awm_service_cash
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2027q3_debt_coupon
2027Q3 / base4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2027q3_investment_income
2027Q3 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / base69.96
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_retention_expense, base_2027q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2027q3_other_interest
2027Q3 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2027q3_no_extra_special
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base28.55
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_apa_service_cash, base_2027q3_awm_service_cash, base_2027q3_debt_coupon, base_2027q3_other_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / base41.41
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_uses, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2027q3_wc_source
2027Q3 / base-10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base31.41
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base22.41
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2027q3_preferred_base
2027Q3 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2027q3_preferred_rate
2027Q3 / base6.5%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2027q3_quarter
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / base8.33
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_preferred_base, base_2027q3_preferred_rate, base_2027q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2027q3_contingent_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2027q3_below_fcf
2027Q3 / base8.33
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_preferred_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base14.08
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
base_2027q4_core_growth
2027Q4 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
base_2027q4_core_season
2027Q4 / base30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
base_2027q4_core_revenue
2027Q4 / base487.20
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(base_core_target, base_2027q4_core_growth, base_2027q4_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
base_2027q4_awm_revenue
2027Q4 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base509.20
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_core_revenue, base_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q4_core_eb_margin
2027Q4 / base16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_core_ebitda
2027Q4 / base77.95
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_core_revenue, base_2027q4_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
base_2027q4_core_gp_margin
2027Q4 / base27.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
base_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q4 / base133.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_core_revenue, base_2027q4_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
base_2027q4_awm_eb_margin
2027Q4 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
base_2027q4_awm_ebitda
2027Q4 / base8.14
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_awm_revenue, base_2027q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / base86.09
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_core_ebitda, base_2027q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
base_2027q4_awm_gm
2027Q4 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
base_2027q4_awm_gp
2027Q4 / base11.44
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_awm_revenue, base_2027q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
base_2027q4_cogs_amort
2027Q4 / base6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
base_2027q4_combined_gp
2027Q4 / base145.42
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp, base_2027q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base138.72
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_combined_gp, base_2027q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q4_apa_service_expense
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
base_2027q4_awm_service_expense
2027Q4 / base1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
base_2027q4_retention_expense
2027Q4 / base1.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_apa_service_expense, base_2027q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
base_2027q4_special_cash
2027Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
base_2027q4_other_da
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cogs_amort, base_2027q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
base_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q4 / base27.45
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_retention_expense, base_2027q4_special_cash, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base58.64
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
base_2027q4_apa_service_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
base_2027q4_awm_service_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
base_2027q4_debt_coupon
2027Q4 / base1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
base_2027q4_investment_income
2027Q4 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / base86.29
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_retention_expense, base_2027q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
base_2027q4_other_interest
2027Q4 / base0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
base_2027q4_no_extra_special
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base17.02
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_apa_service_cash, base_2027q4_awm_service_cash, base_2027q4_debt_coupon, base_2027q4_other_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / base69.27
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_uses, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
base_2027q4_wc_source
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base79.27
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base70.27
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
base_2027q4_preferred_base
2027Q4 / base510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
base_2027q4_preferred_rate
2027Q4 / base6.8%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
base_2027q4_quarter
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
base_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / base8.61
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_preferred_base, base_2027q4_preferred_rate, base_2027q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
base_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
base_2027q4_contingent_cash
2027Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
base_2027q4_below_fcf
2027Q4 / base16.61
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_preferred_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base53.66
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_below_fcf).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base1,473.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
base_fy2026_core_revenue
FY2026 / base1,450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_awm_revenue
FY2026 / base23.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_awm_revenue, base_2026q3_awm_revenue, base_2026q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / base228.51
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base386.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base115.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base71.49
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base31.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base40.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
base_fy2026_preferred_cash
FY2026 / base15.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_cash, base_2026q3_preferred_cash, base_2026q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
base_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / base165.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / base-151.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base1,701.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
base_fy2027_core_revenue
FY2027 / base1,624.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_awm_revenue
FY2027 / base77.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_awm_revenue, base_2027q2_awm_revenue, base_2027q3_awm_revenue, base_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / base288.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base459.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base167.83
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base279.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base36.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base243.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
base_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / base32.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_cash, base_2027q2_preferred_cash, base_2027q3_preferred_cash, base_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
base_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base198.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Annual pre-AWM revenue scenario
upside_core_target
FY2026 / upside1,550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guided midpoint; other cases are desk delivery sensitivities.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA scenario
upside_eb_target
FY2026 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Base is guidance midpoint; no AWM in this amount.
Annual adjusted gross margin
upside_gm
FY2026 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Base 27.5% is midpoint of 27%-28% company range.
Annual pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_gp_target
FY2026 / upside441.75
USD_millions
derived: Includes rebates once through product economics. Formula: multiply(upside_core_target, upside_gm).
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2026q3_core_revenue
2026Q3 / upside340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2026q3_awm_revenue
2026Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside346.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2026q3_core_eb_margin
2026Q3 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q3_core_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside54.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
upside_2026q3_core_gp_margin
2026Q3 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q3 / upside96.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2026q3_awm_eb_margin
2026Q3 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2026q3_awm_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_awm_revenue, upside_2026q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside56.80
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_core_ebitda, upside_2026q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2026q3_awm_gm
2026Q3 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2026q3_awm_gp
2026Q3 / upside3.12
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_awm_revenue, upside_2026q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2026q3_cogs_amort
2026Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2026q3_combined_gp
2026Q3 / upside100.02
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2026q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside94.02
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_combined_gp, upside_2026q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2026q3_apa_service_expense
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2026q3_awm_service_expense
2026Q3 / upside0.42
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2026q3_retention_expense
2026Q3 / upside5.42
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_apa_service_expense, upside_2026q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2026q3_special_cash
2026Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2026q3_other_da
2026Q3 / upside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside17.50
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cogs_amort, upside_2026q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q3 / upside30.42
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_retention_expense, upside_2026q3_special_cash, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside26.38
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2026q3_apa_service_cash
2026Q3 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2026q3_awm_service_cash
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2026q3_debt_coupon
2026Q3 / upside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2026q3_investment_income
2026Q3 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses
2026Q3 / upside55.50
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_retention_expense, upside_2026q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2026q3_other_interest
2026Q3 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2026q3_no_extra_special
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside32.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_apa_service_cash, upside_2026q3_awm_service_cash, upside_2026q3_debt_coupon, upside_2026q3_other_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / upside23.14
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2026q3_wc_source
2026Q3 / upside-10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside13.14
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside5.14
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2026q3_preferred_base
2026Q3 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2026q3_preferred_rate
2026Q3 / upside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2026q3_quarter
2026Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2026q3_preferred_cash
2026Q3 / upside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_preferred_base, upside_2026q3_preferred_rate, upside_2026q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / upside165.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2026q3_contingent_cash
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2026q3_below_fcf
2026Q3 / upside172.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_preferred_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / upside-167.83
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_below_fcf).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM revenue
upside_2026q4_through_q3
2026Q4 / upside905.48
USD_millions
derived: Preserves actual H1. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_core_revenue).
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2026q4_core_revenue
2026Q4 / upside644.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 delivery requirement to meet annual scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_core_target, upside_2026q4_through_q3).
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2026q4_awm_revenue
2026Q4 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside665.52
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_core_revenue, upside_2026q4_awm_revenue).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM EBITDA
upside_2026q4_eb_through_q3
2026Q4 / upside146.49
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus modeled Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_core_ebitda).
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_core_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside103.51
USD_millions
derived: Q4 residual to annual EBITDA scenario. Formula: subtract(upside_eb_target, upside_2026q4_eb_through_q3).
H1 plus Q3 pre-AWM adjusted GP
upside_2026q4_gp_through_q3
2026Q4 / upside270.82
USD_millions
derived: Actual H1 plus Q3. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_gp, upside_2026q3_core_adjusted_gp).
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp
2026Q4 / upside170.93
USD_millions
derived: Annual margin requirement drives the Q4 residual. Formula: subtract(upside_gp_target, upside_2026q4_gp_through_q3).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2026q4_awm_eb_margin
2026Q4 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2026q4_awm_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside8.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_awm_revenue, upside_2026q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside111.91
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_core_ebitda, upside_2026q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2026q4_awm_gm
2026Q4 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2026q4_awm_gp
2026Q4 / upside10.92
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_awm_revenue, upside_2026q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2026q4_cogs_amort
2026Q4 / upside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2026q4_combined_gp
2026Q4 / upside181.85
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2026q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside175.15
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_combined_gp, upside_2026q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2026q4_apa_service_expense
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2026q4_awm_service_expense
2026Q4 / upside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2026q4_retention_expense
2026Q4 / upside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_apa_service_expense, upside_2026q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2026q4_special_cash
2026Q4 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside5.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2026q4_other_da
2026Q4 / upside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside18.20
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cogs_amort, upside_2026q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2026Q4 / upside32.25
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_retention_expense, upside_2026q4_special_cash, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside79.66
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2026q4_apa_service_cash
2026Q4 / upside13.81
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2026q4_awm_service_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2026q4_debt_coupon
2026Q4 / upside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2026q4_investment_income
2026Q4 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses
2026Q4 / upside110.61
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_retention_expense, upside_2026q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2026q4_other_interest
2026Q4 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2026q4_no_extra_special
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside31.83
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_apa_service_cash, upside_2026q4_awm_service_cash, upside_2026q4_debt_coupon, upside_2026q4_other_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / upside78.78
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2026q4_wc_source
2026Q4 / upside-50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside28.78
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside20.78
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2026q4_preferred_base
2026Q4 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2026q4_preferred_rate
2026Q4 / upside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2026q4_quarter
2026Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2026q4_preferred_cash
2026Q4 / upside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_preferred_base, upside_2026q4_preferred_rate, upside_2026q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2026q4_contingent_cash
2026Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2026q4_below_fcf
2026Q4 / upside19.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_preferred_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / upside0.81
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
upside_2027q1_core_growth
2027Q1 / upside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
upside_2027q1_core_season
2027Q1 / upside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2027q1_core_revenue
2027Q1 / upside390.60
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(upside_core_target, upside_2027q1_core_growth, upside_2027q1_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2027q1_awm_revenue
2027Q1 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside411.60
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q1_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q1_core_eb_margin
2027Q1 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_core_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside70.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q1_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
upside_2027q1_core_gp_margin
2027Q1 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q1 / upside111.32
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q1_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q1_awm_eb_margin
2027Q1 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2027q1_awm_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside8.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_awm_revenue, upside_2027q1_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside78.71
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_ebitda, upside_2027q1_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2027q1_awm_gm
2027Q1 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2027q1_awm_gp
2027Q1 / upside10.92
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_awm_revenue, upside_2027q1_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2027q1_cogs_amort
2027Q1 / upside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2027q1_combined_gp
2027Q1 / upside122.24
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2027q1_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside115.54
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_combined_gp, upside_2027q1_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q1_apa_service_expense
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q1_awm_service_expense
2027Q1 / upside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2027q1_retention_expense
2027Q1 / upside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_apa_service_expense, upside_2027q1_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2027q1_special_cash
2027Q1 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside5.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2027q1_other_da
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cogs_amort, upside_2027q1_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q1 / upside31.55
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_retention_expense, upside_2027q1_special_cash, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside47.16
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q1_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2027q1_apa_service_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2027q1_awm_service_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2027q1_debt_coupon
2027Q1 / upside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q1_investment_income
2027Q1 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses
2027Q1 / upside78.91
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_retention_expense, upside_2027q1_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2027q1_other_interest
2027Q1 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2027q1_no_extra_special
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside15.36
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_apa_service_cash, upside_2027q1_awm_service_cash, upside_2027q1_debt_coupon, upside_2027q1_other_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / upside63.55
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2027q1_wc_source
2027Q1 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside118.55
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q1_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside109.55
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2027q1_preferred_base
2027Q1 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2027q1_preferred_rate
2027Q1 / upside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2027q1_quarter
2027Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / upside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_preferred_base, upside_2027q1_preferred_rate, upside_2027q1_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2027q1_contingent_cash
2027Q1 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2027q1_below_fcf
2027Q1 / upside15.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_cash, upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q1_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside93.58
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
upside_2027q2_core_growth
2027Q2 / upside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
upside_2027q2_core_season
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2027q2_core_revenue
2027Q2 / upside465.00
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(upside_core_target, upside_2027q2_core_growth, upside_2027q2_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2027q2_awm_revenue
2027Q2 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside488.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q2_core_eb_margin
2027Q2 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_core_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside83.70
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
upside_2027q2_core_gp_margin
2027Q2 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q2 / upside132.52
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q2_awm_eb_margin
2027Q2 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2027q2_awm_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside9.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_awm_revenue, upside_2027q2_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside92.90
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_core_ebitda, upside_2027q2_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2027q2_awm_gm
2027Q2 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2027q2_awm_gp
2027Q2 / upside11.96
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_awm_revenue, upside_2027q2_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2027q2_cogs_amort
2027Q2 / upside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2027q2_combined_gp
2027Q2 / upside144.48
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2027q2_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside137.78
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_combined_gp, upside_2027q2_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q2_apa_service_expense
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q2_awm_service_expense
2027Q2 / upside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2027q2_retention_expense
2027Q2 / upside6.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_apa_service_expense, upside_2027q2_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2027q2_special_cash
2027Q2 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside5.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2027q2_other_da
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cogs_amort, upside_2027q2_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q2 / upside31.85
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_retention_expense, upside_2027q2_special_cash, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside61.05
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2027q2_apa_service_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2027q2_awm_service_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2027q2_debt_coupon
2027Q2 / upside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q2_investment_income
2027Q2 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses
2027Q2 / upside93.10
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_retention_expense, upside_2027q2_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2027q2_other_interest
2027Q2 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2027q2_no_extra_special
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside14.03
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_apa_service_cash, upside_2027q2_awm_service_cash, upside_2027q2_debt_coupon, upside_2027q2_other_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / upside79.08
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2027q2_wc_source
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside84.08
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q2_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside75.08
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2027q2_preferred_base
2027Q2 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2027q2_preferred_rate
2027Q2 / upside6.2%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2027q2_quarter
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / upside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_preferred_base, upside_2027q2_preferred_rate, upside_2027q2_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2027q2_contingent_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2027q2_below_fcf
2027Q2 / upside7.97
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_preferred_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside67.11
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
upside_2027q3_core_growth
2027Q3 / upside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
upside_2027q3_core_season
2027Q3 / upside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2027q3_core_revenue
2027Q3 / upside446.40
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(upside_core_target, upside_2027q3_core_growth, upside_2027q3_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2027q3_awm_revenue
2027Q3 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside471.40
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q3_core_eb_margin
2027Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_core_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside80.35
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
upside_2027q3_core_gp_margin
2027Q3 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q3 / upside127.22
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q3_awm_eb_margin
2027Q3 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2027q3_awm_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_awm_revenue, upside_2027q3_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside90.35
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_core_ebitda, upside_2027q3_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2027q3_awm_gm
2027Q3 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2027q3_awm_gp
2027Q3 / upside13.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_awm_revenue, upside_2027q3_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2027q3_cogs_amort
2027Q3 / upside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2027q3_combined_gp
2027Q3 / upside140.22
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2027q3_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside133.52
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_combined_gp, upside_2027q3_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q3_apa_service_expense
2027Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q3_awm_service_expense
2027Q3 / upside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2027q3_retention_expense
2027Q3 / upside3.75
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_apa_service_expense, upside_2027q3_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2027q3_special_cash
2027Q3 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside6.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2027q3_other_da
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cogs_amort, upside_2027q3_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q3 / upside29.65
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_retention_expense, upside_2027q3_special_cash, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside60.70
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2027q3_apa_service_cash
2027Q3 / upside6.19
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2027q3_awm_service_cash
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2027q3_debt_coupon
2027Q3 / upside4.96
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q3_investment_income
2027Q3 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses
2027Q3 / upside90.55
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_retention_expense, upside_2027q3_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2027q3_other_interest
2027Q3 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2027q3_no_extra_special
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside28.55
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_apa_service_cash, upside_2027q3_awm_service_cash, upside_2027q3_debt_coupon, upside_2027q3_other_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / upside62.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2027q3_wc_source
2027Q3 / upside-5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside57.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside48.00
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2027q3_preferred_base
2027Q3 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2027q3_preferred_rate
2027Q3 / upside6.5%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2027q3_quarter
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / upside8.33
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_preferred_base, upside_2027q3_preferred_rate, upside_2027q3_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2027q3_contingent_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2027q3_below_fcf
2027Q3 / upside8.33
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_preferred_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside39.67
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_below_fcf).
Pre-AWM business expansion
upside_2027q4_core_growth
2027Q4 / upside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual quarter share
upside_2027q4_core_season
2027Q4 / upside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue excluding AWM
upside_2027q4_core_revenue
2027Q4 / upside558.00
USD_millions
derived: Organic and existing APA expansion; no new AWM inside core. Formula: multiply(upside_core_target, upside_2027q4_core_growth, upside_2027q4_core_season).
Consolidated AWM revenue
upside_2027q4_awm_revenue
2027Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: September only in Q3 following August 31 close; future quarters are independent desk sales assumptions.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside586.00
USD_millions
derived: Guided pre-AWM perimeter plus new business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Pre-AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q4_core_eb_margin
2027Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_core_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside100.44
USD_millions
derived: Desk cost conversion; prior APA is already included. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_core_eb_margin).
Adjusted gross margin
upside_2027q4_core_gp_margin
2027Q4 / upside28.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Pre-AWM adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp
2027Q4 / upside159.03
USD_millions
derived: Includes vendor rebates and own credits; no extra subsidy revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_core_gp_margin).
AWM EBITDA margin
upside_2027q4_awm_eb_margin
2027Q4 / upside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM EBITDA contribution
upside_2027q4_awm_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside11.20
USD_millions
derived: Desk contribution before integration and compensation exclusions. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_awm_revenue, upside_2027q4_awm_eb_margin).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside111.64
USD_millions
derived: Proxy for combined perimeter; not updated company guidance. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_core_ebitda, upside_2027q4_awm_ebitda).
AWM gross margin
upside_2027q4_awm_gm
2027Q4 / upside52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM gross profit before acquisition accounting
upside_2027q4_awm_gp
2027Q4 / upside14.56
USD_millions
derived: Desk gross margin; acquisition allocation not yet disclosed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_awm_revenue, upside_2027q4_awm_gm).
Acquired amortization/step-up in COGS
upside_2027q4_cogs_amort
2027Q4 / upside6.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted consolidated gross profit
upside_2027q4_combined_gp
2027Q4 / upside173.59
USD_millions
derived: Each business once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_core_adjusted_gp, upside_2027q4_awm_gp).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside166.89
USD_millions
derived: Provisional acquisition accounting allowance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_combined_gp, upside_2027q4_cogs_amort).
APA service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q4_apa_service_expense
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
AWM service-linked compensation expense
upside_2027q4_awm_service_expense
2027Q4 / upside1.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk straight-line two-year service period; final accounting pending.
Combined service-linked compensation
upside_2027q4_retention_expense
2027Q4 / upside1.25
USD_millions
derived: Excluded from adjusted EBITDA proxy but real compensation cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_apa_service_expense, upside_2027q4_awm_service_expense).
Integration and other cash acquisition expense
upside_2027q4_special_cash
2027Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary equity compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Other depreciation/amortization
upside_2027q4_other_da
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Total depreciation and acquired amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside18.70
USD_millions
derived: Provisional allowance; no goodwill amortization. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cogs_amort, upside_2027q4_other_da).
EBITDA-to-GAAP operating costs
upside_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap
2027Q4 / upside27.45
USD_millions
derived: No recurring fair-value gain assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_retention_expense, upside_2027q4_special_cash, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside84.19
USD_millions
derived: Cash special costs and SBC are not omitted from operating economics. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_ebitda_to_gaap).
APA service cash settlement
upside_2027q4_apa_service_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: All-cash desk election: first anniversary, December 31 elapsed-service installment, then remaining second anniversary; employment conditions apply.
AWM service cash settlement
upside_2027q4_awm_service_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: First anniversary payment assumes continued employment and cash rather than shares.
Convertible cash coupon
upside_2027q4_debt_coupon
2027Q4 / upside1.62
USD_millions
assumption: 2031 notes pay January/July; 2028 notes June/December. No principal maturity within this horizon.
Cash investment income
upside_2027q4_investment_income
2027Q4 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash before financing costs, taxes and working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses
2027Q4 / upside111.84
USD_millions
derived: Reverse accrued retention expense, then deduct contractual-scenario payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_retention_expense, upside_2027q4_investment_income).
Other borrowing and bank cash cost
upside_2027q4_other_interest
2027Q4 / upside0.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Additional special-cost deduction
upside_2027q4_no_extra_special
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Special expense is already cash in operating profit; no second deduction.
Interest, tax and service-linked cash uses
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside17.02
USD_millions
derived: Purchase consideration and preferred dividends remain below FCF. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_apa_service_cash, upside_2027q4_awm_service_cash, upside_2027q4_debt_coupon, upside_2027q4_other_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_no_extra_special).
Cash before operating working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / upside94.81
USD_millions
derived: Includes service compensation once in cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net working-capital cash source
upside_2027q4_wc_source
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer/deposit, inventory, vendor-rebate and warranty cash timing; Q4 delivery collections partly spill into Q1.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside109.81
USD_millions
derived: No automatic collection of all rebate receivables. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_wc_source).
PP&E cash spending
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside100.81
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisition price and senior capital cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Preferred liquidation proxy
upside_2027q4_preferred_base
2027Q4 / upside510.00
USD_millions
assumption: June $506.4M plus desk accrual through the August cash transition; not a reported closing balance.
Cash dividend rate
upside_2027q4_preferred_rate
2027Q4 / upside6.8%
ratio
assumption: 6.25% after fifth anniversary; 6.75% after August 10, 2027; Q3 2027 blended.
Quarter year fraction
upside_2027q4_quarter
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend allowance
upside_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / upside8.61
USD_millions
derived: Conservative full-quarter Q3 2026 cash allowance; exact declaration/payment calendar not assumed. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_preferred_base, upside_2027q4_preferred_rate, upside_2027q4_quarter).
Upfront AWM purchase cash
upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: August 31 close: approximate $165M cash, subject to settlement. Not repeated in subsequent quarters.
APA and AWM contingent purchase payments
upside_2027q4_contingent_cash
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-election/timing scenario; differs from service payments and recognized fair value. Actual payment can be shares or zero.
Preferred, purchase price and earnout cash
upside_2027q4_below_fcf
2027Q4 / upside20.61
USD_millions
derived: Distinct cash claims, not GAAP operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_preferred_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_contingent_cash).
Cash after acquisition and preferred claims
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside80.21
USD_millions
derived: Before debt principal, new financing, ordinary award withholding and discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_below_fcf).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside1,577.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
upside_fy2026_core_revenue
FY2026 / upside1,550.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_awm_revenue
FY2026 / upside27.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_awm_revenue, upside_2026q3_awm_revenue, upside_2026q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / upside260.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside431.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside147.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside133.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside31.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside102.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
upside_fy2026_preferred_cash
FY2026 / upside15.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_cash, upside_2026q3_preferred_cash, upside_2026q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / upside165.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / upside-92.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue including modeled post-close AWM ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside1,957.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Revenue on pre-AWM guidance perimeter ($M)
upside_fy2027_core_revenue
FY2027 / upside1,860.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_core_revenue).
Post-close AWM revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_awm_revenue
FY2027 / upside97.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_awm_revenue, upside_2027q2_awm_revenue, upside_2027q3_awm_revenue, upside_2027q4_awm_revenue).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / upside373.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside553.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside253.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside369.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside36.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside333.44
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend allowance ($M)
upside_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / upside32.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_cash, upside_2027q2_preferred_cash, upside_2027q3_preferred_cash, upside_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Upfront acquisition cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Cash after acquisitions and senior claims ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside280.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

Backlog conversion after acquisitions and preferred cash claims

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can project delivery and the expanded product portfolio finance cash obligations ahead of common equity?

H1 sales were $565.477M, adjusted EBITDA $92.087M and GAAP operating income $41.874M. Net income $26.343M became a $5.102M common-stockholder loss after $31.445M preferred dividends/accretion. CFO $91.858M less capex $15.144M gave $76.714M. June cash was $307.302M against $670M convertible principal and a $506.4M preferred liquidation claim. Preferred dividends become cash-only after August 10 absent default accrual. The $1.4B-$1.5B annual sales and $210M-$230M adjusted EBITDA guidance explicitly exclude AWM. AWM closed August 31 for about $165M cash; service-conditioned payments up to $10M and earnouts up to $40M are separate. APA service-linked payments total $40M under employment conditions and are compensation, not purchase price. Vendor-rebate receivables of $142.7M include $91.3M long-term; they are not free cash.

The competing explanation

Record backlog can mask a concentrated delivery schedule and working-capital needs. Vendor rebates can improve margins before cash arrives. Acquisition integration, service payments and preferred dividends can absorb cash that EBITDA appears to generate, while payment in shares shifts the burden to dilution.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First completed pre/post-acquisition model with explicit preferred cash transition, compensation-linked seller payments and rebate collection timing.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed mid-range, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-5.6-0.2+4.547%
5 sessions-11.3-0.6+10.246%
10 sessions-14.2-0.7+13.143%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  2. [2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  6. [6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  10. [10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  14. [14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  19. [19] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  22. [22] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001820721-24-000076, 10-Q filed 2024-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001820721-25-000060, 10-Q filed 2025-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  26. [26] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001820721-25-000085, 10-Q filed 2025-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  27. [27] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  30. [30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001820721-24-000076, 10-Q filed 2024-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  31. [31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  32. [32] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001820721-25-000060, 10-Q filed 2025-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  33. [33] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001820721-25-000085, 10-Q filed 2025-08-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  34. [34] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  35. [35] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  36. [36] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  37. [37] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  39. [39] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  40. [40] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  41. [41] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  42. [42] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  43. [43] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  44. [44] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  45. [45] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001820721-25-000095, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  46. [46] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001820721-26-000008, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  47. [47] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-031453, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json
  48. [48] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-053517, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:33:25+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001820721.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T21:33:25.739446+00:00 · authored b381a39b01ea · generated 0f36c530882b · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard