ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · SEMIS & COMPUTE

$AMBA

AMBARELLA INC · Nasdaq · SIC 3674 · CIK 1280263 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Ambarella designs low-power processors for cameras, vehicles and other physical AI systems. It earns chip revenue when customers ship products; engineering programs, design wins and a large addressable market create opportunities but do not themselves produce sales. Foundry, packaging, memory constraints and product mix affect margins. Its expanding edge-computing portfolio includes the newly announced X7 accelerator.

Three drivers

  1. Customer production ramps and shipment seasonality
  2. Chip mix, supply costs and engineering expense
  3. Inventory, supplier settlements and cash IP investment

Thesis

Our view

Ambarella can turn edge-AI adoption into operating leverage if higher chip revenue grows faster than engineering expense. The cash test is stricter: H1 consumed cash despite positive adjusted operating income, and financed IP payments sit outside conventional investing capex. X7 and channel partnerships support a longer-term opportunity whose revenue timing remains unproven.

What changes it

Raise confidence when production shipments, gross margin and inventory cash conversion improve together. Reduce it if design wins fail to ship, memory constraints delay customers, or IP and R&D cash outgrow revenue.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q3
2024-10-31
2025Q4
2025-01-31
2025Q1
2025-04-30
2026Q2
2025-07-31
2026Q3
2025-10-31
2026Q4
2026-01-31
2027Q1
2026-04-30
2027Q2
2026-07-31
Revenue ($M)82.7184.0†285.9395.54108.51100.9†2100.43108.14
Gross profit ($M)50.0550.4†651.5756.2864.6558.9†658.6762.48
Operating income ($M)-25.59-25.4†10-25.911-22.012-16.29-18.4†10-19.411-8.112
Net income ($M)-24.113-20.2†14-24.315-20.015-15.113-16.4†14-18.115-6.715
EPS, diluted ($)-0.5816-0.5817-0.4718-0.3516-0.4117-0.1518
Diluted shares (M)41.51942.22042.52142.91943.62044.021
Cash ($M)127.122144.623141.324142.723174.122191.023114.424101.823
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)6.6†2525.4†2614.8275.5†2834.3†2518.9†26-25.627-0.3†28
Capex ($M)2.5†294.2†304.6314.1†322.9†333.9†344.0356.8†36
Free cash flow ($M)4.1†3721.2†3810.2†391.4†4031.4†4115.0†42-29.6†43-7.1†44

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2027Q3119.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q4113.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2028Q1123.12026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2028Q2136.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Edge-AI shipments must earn cash after engineering and IP investment

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Use the Q3 FY2027 revenue midpoint as a reference, then separate shipment/seasonality and price/mix indices. These are sensitivities, not disclosed units or ASPs. Extend six quarters through FY2028, preserving H1 actuals. Translate non-GAAP gross margin and operating expense into GAAP proxies with separately stated stock compensation and acquisition amortization. Bridge profits to inventory, receivables, supplier payments and cash taxes, then deduct both investing-classified asset purchases and financing-classified IP payments.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Q3 revenue outlook midpoint2027Q3119.50derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q3 non-GAAP operating expense midpoint2027Q358.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin gm_low2027Q359.0%management guidance. Company guidance. Source · 2026-09-03
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin gm_high2027Q360.0%management guidance. Company guidance. Source · 2026-09-03
H1 non-GAAP operating incomeH1 FY202710.46derived. Remove the one-time $9M reduction of R&D expense from adjusted earnings.
H1 termination creditH1 FY20279.00reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
project refundJuly 20264.50reported. July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Source · 2026-09-04
H1 cfoH1 FY2027-25.89reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
H1 capexH1 FY202710.78reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
H1 ip financingH1 FY20275.82reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
H1 cash after all asset paymentsH1 FY2027-42.49derived. Also deduct financing-classified intangible payments; not employee withholding.
H1 inventory useH1 FY202724.56reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
H1 payables useH1 FY202726.40reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-09-04
inventoryJuly 202676.92reported. July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Source · 2026-09-04
Cash and marketable securitiesJuly 2026272.33derived. Excludes restricted cash.
buyback authorizedJuly 202650.00reported. July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Source · 2026-09-04

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Non-GAAP operating income ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Financed IP cash payments ($M)Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2027Q3-5.43-12.437.00108.912.0860.433.20-15.63-22.13
2027Q4-5.91-13.217.30100.71-4.0955.763.20-16.41-28.65
2028Q1-8.11-15.717.6095.81-8.2053.153.20-18.91-33.10
2028Q2-8.18-16.087.90105.12-4.1658.693.20-19.28-29.41
FY2027-37.22-62.3025.08418.118.45237.1912.22-74.53-78.34
FY2028-23.85-56.0532.20433.62-11.60242.8012.80-68.85-113.28

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Non-GAAP operating income ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Financed IP cash payments ($M)Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2027Q313.597.096.50119.5013.1069.453.004.09-11.11
2027Q413.286.486.80113.528.1065.903.003.48-16.46
2028Q114.687.587.10123.1112.6071.853.004.58-12.31
2028Q219.4112.017.40136.5219.4280.123.009.01-5.82
FY20270.99-23.0924.08441.5131.66256.3511.82-34.92-55.13
FY202886.3756.1730.20561.3984.63330.3312.0044.17-17.06

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Non-GAAP operating income ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Financed IP cash payments ($M)Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2027Q322.9515.957.00126.7719.4676.313.0012.95-5.75
2027Q426.1918.897.30126.7718.0076.313.0015.89-7.57
2028Q130.0122.417.60141.5825.9385.703.0019.41-0.01
2028Q238.1530.257.90161.6337.1698.403.0027.2510.87
FY202723.25-1.8325.08462.0147.92273.6311.82-13.66-40.89
FY2028168.57136.3732.20672.82162.82410.7012.00124.3756.93
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 FY2027 / shared208.48
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 FY2027 / shared121.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 FY2027 / shared-27.56
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 FY2027 / shared-25.89
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 FY2027 / shared10.78
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 ip financing
h1_ip_financing
H1 FY2027 / shared5.82
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 FY2027 / shared44.59
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 amort
h1_amort
H1 FY2027 / shared2.43
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-03
H1 termination credit
h1_termination_credit
H1 FY2027 / shared9.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 da
h1_da
H1 FY2027 / shared12.84
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 inventory use
h1_inventory_use
H1 FY2027 / shared24.56
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 payables use
h1_payables_use
H1 FY2027 / shared26.40
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-09-04
H1 operating income before excluded credit adjustment
h1_pre_credit_op
H1 FY2027 / shared19.46
USD_millions
derived: GAAP operating income plus excluded ordinary expenses. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, h1_sbc, h1_amort).
H1 non-GAAP operating income
h1_non_gaap_op
H1 FY2027 / shared10.46
USD_millions
derived: Remove the one-time $9M reduction of R&D expense from adjusted earnings. Formula: subtract(h1_pre_credit_op, h1_termination_credit).
H1 cash after investing asset purchases
h1_fcf
H1 FY2027 / shared-36.66
USD_millions
derived: Includes investing-classified tangible and intangible assets. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 cash after all asset payments
h1_cash_after_ip
H1 FY2027 / shared-42.49
USD_millions
derived: Also deduct financing-classified intangible payments; not employee withholding. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_ip_financing).
cash
cash
July 2026 / shared101.85
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
marketable
marketable
July 2026 / shared170.48
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
restricted
restricted
July 2026 / shared0.44
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
inventory
inventory
July 2026 / shared76.92
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
receivables
receivables
July 2026 / shared37.44
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
payables
payables
July 2026 / shared26.48
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
buyback authorized
buyback_authorized
July 2026 / shared50.00
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
project refund
project_refund
July 2026 / shared4.50
USD_millions
reported: July 31 balance, except new buyback authorization from July 1 through June 30, 2027 and May customer-project refund. Authorization is not spending. Primary source · 2026-09-04
Cash and marketable securities
liquidity
July 2026 / shared272.33
USD_millions
derived: Excludes restricted cash. Formula: sum(cash, marketable).
Q3 revenue outlook low
q3_revenue_guide_low
2027Q3 / shared115.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Q3 revenue outlook high
q3_revenue_guide_high
2027Q3 / shared124.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
Q3 revenue outlook endpoint sum
q3_revenue_guide_sum
2027Q3 / shared239.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_guide_low, q3_revenue_guide_high).
Q3 revenue outlook midpoint
q3_revenue_guide
2027Q3 / shared119.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_guide_sum, two).
Q3 non-GAAP operating expense low
q3_opex_guide_low
2027Q3 / shared56.50
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Q3 non-GAAP operating expense high
q3_opex_guide_high
2027Q3 / shared59.50
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Q3 non-GAAP operating expense endpoint sum
q3_opex_guide_sum
2027Q3 / shared116.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_opex_guide_low, q3_opex_guide_high).
Q3 non-GAAP operating expense midpoint
q3_opex_guide
2027Q3 / shared58.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_opex_guide_sum, two).
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin gm_low
gm_low
2027Q3 / shared59.0%
ratio
management guidance: Company guidance. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin gm_high
gm_high
2027Q3 / shared60.0%
ratio
management guidance: Company guidance. Primary source · 2026-09-03
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2027q3_volume_index
2027Q3 / downside93.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2027q3_shipment_revenue
2027Q3 / downside111.14
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2027q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2027q3_price_mix
2027Q3 / downside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside108.91
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_shipment_revenue, downside_2027q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_non_gaap_gm
2027Q3 / downside57.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp
2027Q3 / downside62.08
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q3_non_gaap_opex
2027Q3 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2027q3_non_gaap_op
2027Q3 / downside2.08
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, downside_2027q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2027q3_acquired_amort
2027Q3 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustment
2027Q3 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside60.43
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2027q3_op_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside24.21
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-22.13
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_non_gaap_op, downside_2027q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / downside1.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / downside9.27
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside14.70
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_working_capital_use, downside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-5.43
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-12.43
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2027q3_ip_financing
2027Q3 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2027q3_cash_after_ip
2027Q3 / downside-15.63
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2027q4_volume_index
2027Q4 / downside86.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2027q4_shipment_revenue
2027Q4 / downside102.77
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2027q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2027q4_price_mix
2027Q4 / downside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside100.71
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_shipment_revenue, downside_2027q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_non_gaap_gm
2027Q4 / downside57.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp
2027Q4 / downside57.41
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q4_non_gaap_opex
2027Q4 / downside61.50
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2027q4_non_gaap_op
2027Q4 / downside-4.09
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, downside_2027q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside23.34
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2027q4_acquired_amort
2027Q4 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustment
2027Q4 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside55.76
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2027q4_op_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside24.56
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside-28.65
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_non_gaap_op, downside_2027q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / downside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / downside2.89
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside8.80
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_working_capital_use, downside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-5.91
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside7.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-13.21
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2027q4_ip_financing
2027Q4 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2027q4_cash_after_ip
2027Q4 / downside-16.41
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2028q1_volume_index
2028Q1 / downside81.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2028q1_shipment_revenue
2028Q1 / downside96.80
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2028q1_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2028q1_price_mix
2028Q1 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / downside95.81
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_shipment_revenue, downside_2028q1_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q1_non_gaap_gm
2028Q1 / downside57.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp
2028Q1 / downside54.80
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q1_non_gaap_opex
2028Q1 / downside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2028q1_non_gaap_op
2028Q1 / downside-8.20
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q1_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / downside23.69
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2028q1_acquired_amort
2028Q1 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2028q1_cogs_adjustment
2028Q1 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / downside53.15
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q1_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2028q1_op_adjustments
2028Q1 / downside24.90
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / downside-33.10
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q1_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2028q1_interest_cash
2028Q1 / downside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2028q1_cash_before_wc
2028Q1 / downside-1.21
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_da, downside_2028q1_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2028q1_working_capital_use
2028Q1 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / downside0.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / downside6.90
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_working_capital_use, downside_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / downside-8.11
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / downside7.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / downside-15.71
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2028q1_ip_financing
2028Q1 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2028q1_cash_after_ip
2028Q1 / downside-18.91
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q1_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2028q2_volume_index
2028Q2 / downside88.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2028q2_shipment_revenue
2028Q2 / downside105.16
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2028q2_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2028q2_price_mix
2028Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / downside105.12
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_shipment_revenue, downside_2028q2_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q2_non_gaap_gm
2028Q2 / downside57.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp
2028Q2 / downside60.34
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q2_non_gaap_opex
2028Q2 / downside64.50
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2028q2_non_gaap_op
2028Q2 / downside-4.16
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q2_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / downside24.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2028q2_acquired_amort
2028Q2 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2028q2_cogs_adjustment
2028Q2 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / downside58.69
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q2_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2028q2_op_adjustments
2028Q2 / downside25.25
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / downside-29.41
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q2_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2028q2_interest_cash
2028Q2 / downside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2028q2_cash_before_wc
2028Q2 / downside2.82
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_da, downside_2028q2_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2028q2_working_capital_use
2028Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_working_capital_use, downside_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / downside-8.18
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / downside7.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / downside-16.08
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2028q2_ip_financing
2028Q2 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2028q2_cash_after_ip
2028Q2 / downside-19.28
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q2_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2028q3_volume_index
2028Q3 / downside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2028q3_shipment_revenue
2028Q3 / downside117.11
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2028q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2028q3_price_mix
2028Q3 / downside100.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / downside118.21
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_shipment_revenue, downside_2028q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q3_non_gaap_gm
2028Q3 / downside57.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp
2028Q3 / downside68.09
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q3_non_gaap_opex
2028Q3 / downside66.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2028q3_non_gaap_op
2028Q3 / downside2.09
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / downside24.38
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2028q3_acquired_amort
2028Q3 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2028q3_cogs_adjustment
2028Q3 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / downside66.44
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2028q3_op_adjustments
2028Q3 / downside25.59
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / downside-23.50
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2028q3_interest_cash
2028Q3 / downside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2028q3_cash_before_wc
2028Q3 / downside9.08
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_da, downside_2028q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2028q3_working_capital_use
2028Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / downside1.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / downside13.10
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_working_capital_use, downside_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / downside-4.02
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / downside8.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / downside-12.22
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2028q3_ip_financing
2028Q3 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2028q3_cash_after_ip
2028Q3 / downside-15.42
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
downside_2028q4_volume_index
2028Q4 / downside94.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
downside_2028q4_shipment_revenue
2028Q4 / downside112.33
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, downside_2028q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
downside_2028q4_price_mix
2028Q4 / downside101.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / downside114.49
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_shipment_revenue, downside_2028q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
downside_2028q4_non_gaap_gm
2028Q4 / downside57.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp
2028Q4 / downside66.17
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q4_non_gaap_opex
2028Q4 / downside67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
downside_2028q4_non_gaap_op
2028Q4 / downside-1.33
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
downside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / downside24.72
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
downside_2028q4_acquired_amort
2028Q4 / downside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
downside_2028q4_cogs_adjustment
2028Q4 / downside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / downside64.52
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, downside_2028q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
downside_2028q4_op_adjustments
2028Q4 / downside25.94
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / downside-27.26
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
downside_2028q4_interest_cash
2028Q4 / downside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
downside_2028q4_cash_before_wc
2028Q4 / downside5.66
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_operating_income, downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_da, downside_2028q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
downside_2028q4_working_capital_use
2028Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
downside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / downside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
downside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / downside9.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_working_capital_use, downside_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
downside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / downside-3.54
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
downside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / downside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
downside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / downside-12.04
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
downside_2028q4_ip_financing
2028Q4 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
downside_2028q4_cash_after_ip
2028Q4 / downside-15.24
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_fcf, downside_2028q4_ip_financing).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside418.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside237.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2027_non_gaap_op
FY2027 / downside8.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_non_gaap_op, downside_2027q3_non_gaap_op, downside_2027q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-78.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-37.22
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside25.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-62.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_ip_financing
FY2027 / downside12.22
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ip_financing, downside_2027q3_ip_financing, downside_2027q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_ip
FY2027 / downside-74.53
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_ip, downside_2027q3_cash_after_ip, downside_2027q4_cash_after_ip).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / downside433.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / downside242.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2028_non_gaap_op
FY2028 / downside-11.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q2_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q3_non_gaap_op, downside_2028q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / downside-113.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / downside-23.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
downside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / downside32.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_capex, downside_2028q2_capex, downside_2028q3_capex, downside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
downside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / downside-56.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
downside_fy2028_ip_financing
FY2028 / downside12.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_ip_financing, downside_2028q2_ip_financing, downside_2028q3_ip_financing, downside_2028q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_ip
FY2028 / downside-68.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_ip, downside_2028q2_cash_after_ip, downside_2028q3_cash_after_ip, downside_2028q4_cash_after_ip).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2027q3_volume_index
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2027q3_shipment_revenue
2027Q3 / base119.50
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2027q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2027q3_price_mix
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base119.50
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_shipment_revenue, base_2027q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_non_gaap_gm
2027Q3 / base59.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2027q3_non_gaap_gp
2027Q3 / base71.10
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2027q3_non_gaap_opex
2027Q3 / base58.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2027q3_non_gaap_op
2027Q3 / base13.10
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, base_2027q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2027q3_acquired_amort
2027Q3 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2027q3_cogs_adjustment
2027Q3 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base69.45
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, base_2027q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2027q3_op_adjustments
2027Q3 / base24.21
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base-11.11
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_non_gaap_op, base_2027q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / base1.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / base20.29
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base6.70
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_working_capital_use, base_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base13.59
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base7.09
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2027q3_ip_financing
2027Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2027q3_cash_after_ip
2027Q3 / base4.09
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2027q4_volume_index
2027Q4 / base95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2027q4_shipment_revenue
2027Q4 / base113.52
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2027q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2027q4_price_mix
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base113.52
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_shipment_revenue, base_2027q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_non_gaap_gm
2027Q4 / base59.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2027q4_non_gaap_gp
2027Q4 / base67.55
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2027q4_non_gaap_opex
2027Q4 / base59.45
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2027q4_non_gaap_op
2027Q4 / base8.10
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, base_2027q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base23.34
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2027q4_acquired_amort
2027Q4 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2027q4_cogs_adjustment
2027Q4 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base65.90
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, base_2027q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2027q4_op_adjustments
2027Q4 / base24.56
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base-16.46
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_non_gaap_op, base_2027q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / base1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / base15.08
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base1.80
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_working_capital_use, base_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base13.28
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base6.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base6.48
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2027q4_ip_financing
2027Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2027q4_cash_after_ip
2027Q4 / base3.48
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2028q1_volume_index
2028Q1 / base102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2028q1_shipment_revenue
2028Q1 / base121.89
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2028q1_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2028q1_price_mix
2028Q1 / base101.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / base123.11
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_shipment_revenue, base_2028q1_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2028q1_non_gaap_gm
2028Q1 / base59.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2028q1_non_gaap_gp
2028Q1 / base73.50
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2028q1_non_gaap_opex
2028Q1 / base60.90
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2028q1_non_gaap_op
2028Q1 / base12.60
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q1_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / base23.69
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2028q1_acquired_amort
2028Q1 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2028q1_cogs_adjustment
2028Q1 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / base71.85
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q1_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2028q1_op_adjustments
2028Q1 / base24.90
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / base-12.31
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_non_gaap_op, base_2028q1_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2028q1_interest_cash
2028Q1 / base1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2028q1_cash_before_wc
2028Q1 / base19.58
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_da, base_2028q1_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2028q1_working_capital_use
2028Q1 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / base0.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / base4.90
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_working_capital_use, base_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / base14.68
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cash_before_wc, base_2028q1_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / base7.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / base7.58
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2028q1_ip_financing
2028Q1 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2028q1_cash_after_ip
2028Q1 / base4.58
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q1_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2028q2_volume_index
2028Q2 / base112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2028q2_shipment_revenue
2028Q2 / base133.84
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2028q2_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2028q2_price_mix
2028Q2 / base102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / base136.52
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_shipment_revenue, base_2028q2_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2028q2_non_gaap_gm
2028Q2 / base59.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2028q2_non_gaap_gp
2028Q2 / base81.77
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2028q2_non_gaap_opex
2028Q2 / base62.35
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2028q2_non_gaap_op
2028Q2 / base19.42
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q2_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / base24.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2028q2_acquired_amort
2028Q2 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2028q2_cogs_adjustment
2028Q2 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / base80.12
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q2_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2028q2_op_adjustments
2028Q2 / base25.25
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / base-5.82
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_non_gaap_op, base_2028q2_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2028q2_interest_cash
2028Q2 / base1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2028q2_cash_before_wc
2028Q2 / base26.41
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_da, base_2028q2_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2028q2_working_capital_use
2028Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / base7.00
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_working_capital_use, base_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / base19.41
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cash_before_wc, base_2028q2_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / base7.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / base12.01
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2028q2_ip_financing
2028Q2 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2028q2_cash_after_ip
2028Q2 / base9.01
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q2_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2028q3_volume_index
2028Q3 / base124.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2028q3_shipment_revenue
2028Q3 / base148.18
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2028q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2028q3_price_mix
2028Q3 / base103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / base152.63
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_shipment_revenue, base_2028q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2028q3_non_gaap_gm
2028Q3 / base60.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2028q3_non_gaap_gp
2028Q3 / base91.73
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2028q3_non_gaap_opex
2028Q3 / base63.80
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2028q3_non_gaap_op
2028Q3 / base27.93
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / base24.38
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2028q3_acquired_amort
2028Q3 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2028q3_cogs_adjustment
2028Q3 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / base90.08
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2028q3_op_adjustments
2028Q3 / base25.59
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / base2.33
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_non_gaap_op, base_2028q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2028q3_interest_cash
2028Q3 / base1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2028q3_cash_before_wc
2028Q3 / base34.91
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_da, base_2028q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2028q3_working_capital_use
2028Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / base1.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / base9.10
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_working_capital_use, base_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / base25.81
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cash_before_wc, base_2028q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / base7.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / base18.11
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2028q3_ip_financing
2028Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2028q3_cash_after_ip
2028Q3 / base15.11
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
base_2028q4_volume_index
2028Q4 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
base_2028q4_shipment_revenue
2028Q4 / base143.40
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, base_2028q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
base_2028q4_price_mix
2028Q4 / base104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / base149.14
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_shipment_revenue, base_2028q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
base_2028q4_non_gaap_gm
2028Q4 / base60.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
base_2028q4_non_gaap_gp
2028Q4 / base89.93
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
base_2028q4_non_gaap_opex
2028Q4 / base65.25
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
base_2028q4_non_gaap_op
2028Q4 / base24.68
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
base_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / base24.72
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
base_2028q4_acquired_amort
2028Q4 / base1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
base_2028q4_cogs_adjustment
2028Q4 / base1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / base88.28
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, base_2028q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
base_2028q4_op_adjustments
2028Q4 / base25.94
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / base-1.26
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_non_gaap_op, base_2028q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
base_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
base_2028q4_interest_cash
2028Q4 / base1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
base_2028q4_cash_before_wc
2028Q4 / base31.67
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_operating_income, base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_da, base_2028q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
base_2028q4_working_capital_use
2028Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
base_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / base1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
base_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / base5.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_working_capital_use, base_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
base_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / base26.47
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cash_before_wc, base_2028q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
base_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
base_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / base18.47
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
base_2028q4_ip_financing
2028Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
base_2028q4_cash_after_ip
2028Q4 / base15.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_fcf, base_2028q4_ip_financing).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base441.51
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base256.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2027_non_gaap_op
FY2027 / base31.66
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_non_gaap_op, base_2027q3_non_gaap_op, base_2027q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base-55.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base0.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base24.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-23.09
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
base_fy2027_ip_financing
FY2027 / base11.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ip_financing, base_2027q3_ip_financing, base_2027q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_ip
FY2027 / base-34.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_ip, base_2027q3_cash_after_ip, base_2027q4_cash_after_ip).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / base561.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / base330.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2028_non_gaap_op
FY2028 / base84.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_non_gaap_op, base_2028q2_non_gaap_op, base_2028q3_non_gaap_op, base_2028q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / base-17.06
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / base86.37
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
base_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / base30.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_capex, base_2028q2_capex, base_2028q3_capex, base_2028q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
base_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / base56.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
base_fy2028_ip_financing
FY2028 / base12.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_ip_financing, base_2028q2_ip_financing, base_2028q3_ip_financing, base_2028q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_ip
FY2028 / base44.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_ip, base_2028q2_cash_after_ip, base_2028q3_cash_after_ip, base_2028q4_cash_after_ip).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2027q3_volume_index
2027Q3 / upside104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2027q3_shipment_revenue
2027Q3 / upside124.28
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2027q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2027q3_price_mix
2027Q3 / upside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside126.77
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_shipment_revenue, upside_2027q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_non_gaap_gm
2027Q3 / upside61.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp
2027Q3 / upside77.96
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q3_non_gaap_opex
2027Q3 / upside58.50
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2027q3_non_gaap_op
2027Q3 / upside19.46
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, upside_2027q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2027q3_acquired_amort
2027Q3 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustment
2027Q3 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside76.31
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_non_gaap_gp, upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2027q3_op_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside25.21
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside-5.75
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_non_gaap_op, upside_2027q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / upside1.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / upside26.65
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside0.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside3.70
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_working_capital_use, upside_2027q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside22.95
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside15.95
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2027q3_ip_financing
2027Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2027q3_cash_after_ip
2027Q3 / upside12.95
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2027q4_volume_index
2027Q4 / upside104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2027q4_shipment_revenue
2027Q4 / upside124.28
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2027q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2027q4_price_mix
2027Q4 / upside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside126.77
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_shipment_revenue, upside_2027q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_non_gaap_gm
2027Q4 / upside61.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp
2027Q4 / upside77.96
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q4_non_gaap_opex
2027Q4 / upside59.96
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2027q4_non_gaap_op
2027Q4 / upside18.00
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, upside_2027q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside24.36
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2027q4_acquired_amort
2027Q4 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustment
2027Q4 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside76.31
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_non_gaap_gp, upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2027q4_op_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside25.57
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside-7.57
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_non_gaap_op, upside_2027q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / upside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / upside24.99
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / upside-2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside0.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside-1.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_working_capital_use, upside_2027q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside26.19
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside7.30
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside18.89
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2027q4_ip_financing
2027Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2027q4_cash_after_ip
2027Q4 / upside15.89
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2028q1_volume_index
2028Q1 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2028q1_shipment_revenue
2028Q1 / upside137.42
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2028q1_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2028q1_price_mix
2028Q1 / upside103.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / upside141.58
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_shipment_revenue, upside_2028q1_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q1_non_gaap_gm
2028Q1 / upside61.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp
2028Q1 / upside87.35
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q1_non_gaap_opex
2028Q1 / upside61.43
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2028q1_non_gaap_op
2028Q1 / upside25.93
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q1_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / upside24.72
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2028q1_acquired_amort
2028Q1 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2028q1_cogs_adjustment
2028Q1 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / upside85.70
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q1_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2028q1_op_adjustments
2028Q1 / upside25.93
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / upside-0.01
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q1_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2028q1_interest_cash
2028Q1 / upside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2028q1_cash_before_wc
2028Q1 / upside32.91
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_da, upside_2028q1_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2028q1_working_capital_use
2028Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / upside0.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / upside2.90
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_working_capital_use, upside_2028q1_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / upside30.01
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / upside7.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / upside22.41
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2028q1_ip_financing
2028Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2028q1_cash_after_ip
2028Q1 / upside19.41
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q1_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2028q2_volume_index
2028Q2 / upside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2028q2_shipment_revenue
2028Q2 / upside155.35
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2028q2_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2028q2_price_mix
2028Q2 / upside104.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / upside161.63
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_shipment_revenue, upside_2028q2_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q2_non_gaap_gm
2028Q2 / upside61.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp
2028Q2 / upside100.05
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q2_non_gaap_opex
2028Q2 / upside62.89
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2028q2_non_gaap_op
2028Q2 / upside37.16
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q2_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / upside25.08
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2028q2_acquired_amort
2028Q2 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2028q2_cogs_adjustment
2028Q2 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / upside98.40
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q2_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2028q2_op_adjustments
2028Q2 / upside26.29
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / upside10.87
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q2_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2028q2_interest_cash
2028Q2 / upside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2028q2_cash_before_wc
2028Q2 / upside44.15
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_da, upside_2028q2_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2028q2_working_capital_use
2028Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_working_capital_use, upside_2028q2_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / upside38.15
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / upside7.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / upside30.25
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2028q2_ip_financing
2028Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2028q2_cash_after_ip
2028Q2 / upside27.25
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q2_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2028q3_volume_index
2028Q3 / upside148.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2028q3_shipment_revenue
2028Q3 / upside176.86
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2028q3_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2028q3_price_mix
2028Q3 / upside105.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / upside185.81
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_shipment_revenue, upside_2028q3_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q3_non_gaap_gm
2028Q3 / upside62.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp
2028Q3 / upside115.39
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q3_non_gaap_opex
2028Q3 / upside64.35
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2028q3_non_gaap_op
2028Q3 / upside51.04
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q3_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / upside25.44
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2028q3_acquired_amort
2028Q3 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2028q3_cogs_adjustment
2028Q3 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / upside113.74
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q3_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2028q3_op_adjustments
2028Q3 / upside26.65
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / upside24.38
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q3_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2028q3_interest_cash
2028Q3 / upside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2028q3_cash_before_wc
2028Q3 / upside58.02
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_da, upside_2028q3_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2028q3_working_capital_use
2028Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / upside1.10
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / upside9.10
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_working_capital_use, upside_2028q3_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / upside48.92
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / upside8.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / upside40.72
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2028q3_ip_financing
2028Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2028q3_cash_after_ip
2028Q3 / upside37.72
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q3_ip_financing).
Shipment and seasonal index
upside_2028q4_volume_index
2028Q4 / upside145.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue at reference price
upside_2028q4_shipment_revenue
2028Q4 / upside173.28
USD_millions
derived: Reference revenue times normalized shipment index; not a reported unit count. Formula: multiply(q3_revenue_guide, upside_2028q4_volume_index).
Price and product-mix index
upside_2028q4_price_mix
2028Q4 / upside106.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / upside183.81
USD_millions
derived: Price/mix sensitivity separate from volume; no automatic market-size capture. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_shipment_revenue, upside_2028q4_price_mix).
Non-GAAP gross margin
upside_2028q4_non_gaap_gm
2028Q4 / upside62.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Non-GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp
2028Q4 / upside114.51
USD_millions
derived: Q3 base uses 59.5% guidance midpoint; later periods are desk mix/cost scenarios. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_non_gaap_gm).
Non-GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q4_non_gaap_opex
2028Q4 / upside65.81
USD_millions
assumption: Q3 base matches $58M midpoint; later spending rises with engineering and channel support.
Non-GAAP operating income
upside_2028q4_non_gaap_op
2028Q4 / upside48.70
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted gross profit less adjusted operating expense; includes ordinary cash R&D. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q4_non_gaap_opex).
Stock compensation
upside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / upside25.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquired amortization
upside_2028q4_acquired_amort
2028Q4 / upside1.21
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS stock compensation and acquisition amortization
upside_2028q4_cogs_adjustment
2028Q4 / upside1.65
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / upside112.86
USD_millions
derived: Only the COGS portion of excluded costs is deducted here; total costs are deducted once in operating income. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_non_gaap_gp, upside_2028q4_cogs_adjustment).
Total excluded operating costs
upside_2028q4_op_adjustments
2028Q4 / upside27.01
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary SBC and acquisition amortization; no repeat termination credit. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_acquired_amort).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / upside21.69
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted operating earnings less all modeled GAAP exclusions. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q4_op_adjustments).
Total depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes the $1.213M acquisition amortization already expensed above; do not add it separately again.
Net interest cash
upside_2028q4_interest_cash
2028Q4 / upside1.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash before working capital
upside_2028q4_cash_before_wc
2028Q4 / upside55.69
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash expenses once, with cash interest income; no securities liquidation proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_operating_income, upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_da, upside_2028q4_interest_cash).
Net working capital cash use
upside_2028q4_working_capital_use
2028Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Inventory, receivables and supplier settlements, net of ordinary operating liabilities; negative means release.
Cash taxes
upside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / upside1.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and cash taxes
upside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / upside4.20
USD_millions
derived: No repeat development termination refund or tax windfall assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_working_capital_use, upside_2028q4_cash_tax).
Operating cash flow
upside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / upside51.49
USD_millions
derived: Cash profit less net operating cash uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Tangible and intangible investing cash
upside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / upside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after investing asset purchases
upside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / upside42.99
USD_millions
derived: Matches combined investing asset-purchase scope. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex).
Financed intangible cash payments
upside_2028q4_ip_financing
2028Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after all asset payments
upside_2028q4_cash_after_ip
2028Q4 / upside39.99
USD_millions
derived: Financing-classified IP payments are real investment costs below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_fcf, upside_2028q4_ip_financing).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside462.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside273.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2027_non_gaap_op
FY2027 / upside47.92
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_non_gaap_op, upside_2027q3_non_gaap_op, upside_2027q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside-40.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside23.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside25.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside-1.83
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_ip_financing
FY2027 / upside11.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ip_financing, upside_2027q3_ip_financing, upside_2027q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_ip
FY2027 / upside-13.66
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_ip, upside_2027q3_cash_after_ip, upside_2027q4_cash_after_ip).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / upside672.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / upside410.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Non-GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2028_non_gaap_op
FY2028 / upside162.82
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q2_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q3_non_gaap_op, upside_2028q4_non_gaap_op).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / upside56.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / upside168.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo).
Tangible and intangible investing cash ($M)
upside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / upside32.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_capex, upside_2028q2_capex, upside_2028q3_capex, upside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less investing asset purchases ($M)
upside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / upside136.37
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q4_fcf).
Financed IP cash payments ($M)
upside_fy2028_ip_financing
FY2028 / upside12.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_ip_financing, upside_2028q2_ip_financing, upside_2028q3_ip_financing, upside_2028q4_ip_financing).
Cash after all modeled asset payments ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_ip
FY2028 / upside124.37
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_ip, upside_2028q2_cash_after_ip, upside_2028q3_cash_after_ip, upside_2028q4_cash_after_ip).

Model boundaries

From edge-AI design wins to cash after engineering and IP

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can shipment growth fund the full cost of product development and intellectual property?

H1 FY2027 revenue was $208.482M, GAAP operating loss $27.559M and calculated non-GAAP operating income $10.460M. The adjusted bridge adds $44.593M SBC and $2.426M acquisition cost, then removes a $9M one-time development-project credit. CFO was negative $25.886M as inventory used $24.557M and payables $26.404M. Investing purchases of tangible and intangible assets consumed $10.779M, and financing-classified IP payments another $5.824M: cash after both was negative $42.489M. July cash and marketable securities were $272.332M, excluding restricted cash. Q3 guidance is $115M-$124M revenue, 59%-60% non-GAAP margin and $56.5M-$59.5M non-GAAP expense. X7 is sampling; channel agreements do not establish near-term order volumes.

The competing explanation

An attractive design portfolio can coexist with slow customer launches, rising supply costs and persistent GAAP losses. The $9M credit flatters reported Q2 R&D but does not improve recurring economics. Adjusted earnings can grow while working capital and IP spending absorb the cash.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Replaces the skeleton with sourced operating and cash scenarios, including the termination-credit adjustment and financed IP payments.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.3-0.0+2.449%
5 sessions-5.6-0.0+5.150%
10 sessions-7.2-0.2+8.447%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-12-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-09-04 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  2. [2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  6. [6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  10. [10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  14. [14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  16. [16] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  19. [19] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  25. [25] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  26. [26] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  27. [27] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  28. [28] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  29. [29] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Comparative nine-month 6.196M less H1 3.696M from September 3 2025 filing; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312525307917/amba-20251031.htm
  30. [30] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Comparative annual 10.381M less nine-month 6.196M from December 4 2025 filing; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526119321/amba-20260131.htm
  31. [31] reported: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Reported comparative quarter; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm
  32. [32] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; H1 8.688M from September 3 2025 filing less comparative Q1 4.565M; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm
  33. [33] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Nine-month 11.590M less H1 8.688M from September 3 2025 filing; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312525307917/amba-20251031.htm
  34. [34] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Annual 15.514M less nine-month 11.590M from December 4 2025 filing; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526119321/amba-20260131.htm
  35. [35] reported: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Reported quarter; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm
  36. [36] derived: Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; H1 10.779M less Q1 3.957M from June 2 2026 filing; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526383365/amba-20260731.htm
  37. [37] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2025-12-04] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Comparative nine-month 6.196M less H1 3.696M from September 3 2025 filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312525307917/amba-20251031.htm; filed 2025-12-04], accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  38. [38] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-03-23] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Comparative annual 10.381M less nine-month 6.196M from December 4 2025 filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526119321/amba-20260131.htm; filed 2026-03-23], accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  39. [39] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-06-02] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Reported comparative quarter [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm; filed 2026-06-02], accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  40. [40] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-09-04] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; H1 8.688M from September 3 2025 filing less comparative Q1 4.565M [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm; filed 2026-06-02], accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  41. [41] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2025-12-04] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Nine-month 11.590M less H1 8.688M from September 3 2025 filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312525307917/amba-20251031.htm; filed 2025-12-04], accession 0001193125-25-307917, 10-Q filed 2025-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  42. [42] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-03-23] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Annual 15.514M less nine-month 11.590M from December 4 2025 filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526119321/amba-20260131.htm; filed 2026-03-23], accession 0001193125-26-119321, 10-K filed 2026-03-23; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  43. [43] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-06-02] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; Reported quarter [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526253198/amba-20260430.htm; filed 2026-06-02], accession 0001193125-26-253198, 10-Q filed 2026-06-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json
  44. [44] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json; filed 2026-09-04] ; Combined tangible and intangible investing asset cash; H1 10.779M less Q1 3.957M from June 2 2026 filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280263/000119312526383365/amba-20260731.htm; filed 2026-09-04], accession 0001193125-26-383365, 10-Q filed 2026-09-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:22+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001280263.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T20:50:23.369743+00:00 · authored dcc0c5349eea · generated 439d4a25dea2 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard