$ALAB
Business
Astera Labs sells connectivity semiconductors, boards and modules used in cloud and AI infrastructure. Aries retimers, Scorpio fabric switches, Taurus Ethernet products and Leo memory controllers address data movement bottlenecks. The business is fabless: product qualification, customer architecture choices and manufacturing partners determine the revenue ramp. Customer warrants and employee equity compensation affect the relationship between sales, reported earnings, cash and ownership.
Three drivers
- Scorpio and Aries demand versus customer deployment timing
- Product mix and customer-warrant revenue deductions
- Inventory, receivables and stock compensation during the ramp
Thesis
Our view
The August outlook implies another material sequential sales increase, with Scorpio expected to become the largest product family in Q3. That is an operating opportunity, but Q2 net income is not a clean run rate: it includes a $50.263M tax benefit. Customer warrants reduced Q2 revenue by $10.216M, and four direct customers accounted for 82% of sales. The model separates demand, warrants, spending and cash rather than treating the EPS jump as recurring economics.
What changes it
Watch delivery against the $540M-$560M Q3 net-revenue range, 72% GAAP gross margin, warrant deductions, and inventory/receivable growth. Product-family leadership does not reveal customer-by-customer demand or a full product revenue split.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 113.11 | 141.1†2 | 159.43 | 191.94 | 230.61 | 270.6†2 | 308.43 | 392.44 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 87.95 | 104.4†6 | 119.47 | 145.68 | 175.85 | 204.5†6 | 235.17 | 287.68 |
| Operating income ($M) | -8.99 | 0.1†10 | 11.311 | 39.812 | 55.49 | 67.0†10 | 61.811 | 89.212 |
| Net income ($M) | -7.613 | 24.7†14 | 31.815 | 51.216 | 91.113 | 45.0†14 | 80.315 | 153.116 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -0.0517 | — | 0.1818 | 0.2919 | 0.5017 | — | 0.4418 | 0.8319 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 156.820 | — | 178.121 | 178.122 | 180.620 | — | 181.221 | 183.322 |
| Cash ($M) | 126.123 | 79.624 | 86.425 | 162.326 | 140.427 | 167.628 | 148.329 | 111.528 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 63.5†30 | 39.7†31 | 10.532 | 135.4†33 | 78.2†30 | 95.3†31 | 74.632 | 87.7†33 |
| Capex ($M) | 16.7†34 | 15.4†35 | 4.536 | 2.0†37 | 12.3†34 | 18.7†35 | 7.636 | 20.5†37 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 46.8†38 | 24.3†39 | 6.0†40 | 133.3†41 | 65.9†38 | 76.6†39 | 67.0†40 | 67.2†41 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 550.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Net reported-scope revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 660.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Net reported-scope revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 742.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Net reported-scope revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 852.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Net reported-scope revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Connectivity ramp after customer warrants and cash investment
Anchor Q3 net revenue and GAAP spending to August guidance. Calibrate pre-warrant sales at the base deduction rate, then vary the customer-warrant reduction separately from demand. Derive gross profit before and after that reduction, deduct GAAP operating expenses, and bridge net earnings through noncash compensation, warrant expense and working capital to cash. Extend the ramp with explicit quarterly demand factors. H1 actual results remain fixed; all later quarters beyond Q3 guidance are desk assumptions.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 net revenue guidance midpoint | 2026Q3 | 550.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Q3 GAAP operating expense guidance midpoint | 2026Q3 | 234.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Q3 GAAP gross margin guidance | 2026Q3 | 72.0% | management guidance. Approximately 72%. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| q2 tax benefit | 2026Q2 | 50.26 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| q2 warrants | 2026Q2 | 10.22 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| 2026 customer warrant maximum shares | 2026Q2 | 3.26 | reported. Subject to performance vesting; not all immediately outstanding. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| 2026 warrant maximum grant-date value | 2026Q2 | 280.00 | reported. Maximum grant-date value; not a cash liability or an immediate revenue deduction. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 CFO less capex | H1 2026 | 134.22 | derived. Excludes $69.214M cash used in business combinations. |
| H1 acquisition cash | H1 2026 | 69.21 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| June cash and marketable securities | 2026Q2 | 1,252.96 | derived. Does not add securities classified as cash equivalents a second time. |
| unpaid ppe | 2026Q2 | 27.27 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash PP&E purchases ($M) | Net reported-scope revenue ($M) | Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) | Net income ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 117.72 | 92.72 | 25.00 | 500.81 | 18.16 | 107.71 | 347.71 | 113.71 |
| 2026Q4 | 125.71 | 95.71 | 30.00 | 533.47 | 19.35 | 113.38 | 370.39 | 120.39 |
| 2027Q1 | 124.43 | 89.43 | 35.00 | 555.25 | 20.14 | 109.23 | 385.51 | 115.51 |
| 2027Q2 | 137.12 | 97.12 | 40.00 | 598.79 | 21.72 | 122.18 | 415.74 | 130.74 |
| FY2026 | 405.71 | 322.65 | 83.05 | 1,735.04 | 49.83 | 454.49 | 1,240.81 | 385.18 |
| FY2027 | 576.85 | 416.85 | 160.00 | 2,482.28 | 90.03 | 514.63 | 1,723.45 | 553.45 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash PP&E purchases ($M) | Net reported-scope revenue ($M) | Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) | Net income ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 198.10 | 176.10 | 22.00 | 550.00 | 14.10 | 168.00 | 396.00 | 162.00 |
| 2026Q4 | 228.14 | 200.14 | 28.00 | 660.00 | 16.92 | 196.42 | 475.20 | 210.20 |
| 2027Q1 | 258.63 | 226.63 | 32.00 | 742.50 | 19.04 | 226.69 | 534.60 | 244.60 |
| 2027Q2 | 300.54 | 262.54 | 38.00 | 852.50 | 21.86 | 269.98 | 613.80 | 293.80 |
| FY2026 | 588.52 | 510.46 | 78.05 | 1,910.76 | 43.34 | 597.81 | 1,393.91 | 523.28 |
| FY2027 | 1,292.00 | 1,132.00 | 160.00 | 3,630.00 | 93.08 | 1,166.53 | 2,613.60 | 1,273.60 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash PP&E purchases ($M) | Net reported-scope revenue ($M) | Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) | Net income ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 234.02 | 209.02 | 25.00 | 563.88 | 11.51 | 183.63 | 414.28 | 178.28 |
| 2026Q4 | 284.85 | 249.85 | 35.00 | 718.67 | 14.67 | 229.68 | 528.00 | 248.00 |
| 2027Q1 | 359.99 | 314.99 | 45.00 | 884.51 | 18.05 | 301.70 | 649.85 | 329.85 |
| 2027Q2 | 456.76 | 406.76 | 50.00 | 1,078.00 | 22.00 | 396.00 | 792.00 | 437.00 |
| FY2026 | 681.15 | 593.10 | 88.05 | 1,983.30 | 38.49 | 646.70 | 1,464.98 | 577.36 |
| FY2027 | 2,008.35 | 1,788.35 | 220.00 | 4,671.33 | 95.33 | 1,754.72 | 3,432.00 | 1,942.00 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 700.76 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 gross profit h1_gross_profit | H1 2026 / shared | 522.71 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | 151.08 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 net income h1_net_income | H1 2026 / shared | 233.40 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 warrants h1_warrants | H1 2026 / shared | 12.31 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | 162.28 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 28.05 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 sbc h1_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 112.91 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 receivables use h1_receivables_use | H1 2026 / shared | 109.46 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 inventory use h1_inventory_use | H1 2026 / shared | 53.13 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 tax benefit h1_tax_benefit | H1 2026 / shared | 57.16 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 acquisition cash h1_acquisition_cash | H1 2026 / shared | 69.21 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 CFO less capex h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | 134.22 USD_millions | derived: Excludes $69.214M cash used in business combinations. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| cash cash | 2026Q2 / shared | 111.45 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| securities securities | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,141.51 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| q2 tax benefit q2_tax_benefit | 2026Q2 / shared | 50.26 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| q2 warrants q2_warrants | 2026Q2 / shared | 10.22 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| unpaid ppe unpaid_ppe | 2026Q2 / shared | 27.27 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| June cash and marketable securities liquid_assets | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,252.96 USD_millions | derived: Does not add securities classified as cash equivalents a second time. Formula: sum(cash, securities). |
| 2026 customer warrant maximum shares new_warrant_shares | 2026Q2 / shared | 3.26 shares_millions | reported: Subject to performance vesting; not all immediately outstanding. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| 2026 warrant maximum grant-date value new_warrant_value | 2026Q2 / shared | 280.00 USD_millions | reported: Maximum grant-date value; not a cash liability or an immediate revenue deduction. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Q3 net revenue guidance low q3_revenue_guide_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 540.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 net revenue guidance high q3_revenue_guide_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 560.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| Q3 net revenue guidance endpoint sum q3_revenue_guide_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,100.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_guide_low, q3_revenue_guide_high). |
| Q3 net revenue guidance midpoint q3_revenue_guide | 2026Q3 / shared | 550.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_guide_sum, two). |
| Q3 GAAP operating expense guidance low q3_opex_guide_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 232.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 GAAP operating expense guidance high q3_opex_guide_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 236.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 GAAP operating expense guidance endpoint sum q3_opex_guide_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 468.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_opex_guide_low, q3_opex_guide_high). |
| Q3 GAAP operating expense guidance midpoint q3_opex_guide | 2026Q3 / shared | 234.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_opex_guide_sum, two). |
| Q3 GAAP gross margin guidance q3_gm_guide | 2026Q3 / shared | 72.0% ratio | management guidance: Approximately 72%. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Identity one | Model / shared | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| Base Q3 warrant / pre-warrant sales calibration calibration_warrant_rate | 2026Q3 / shared | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk calibration, not a disclosed rate. |
| Pre-warrant sales retained as net revenue calibration_net_factor | 2026Q3 / shared | 97.5% ratio | derived: One less calibration deduction. Formula: subtract(one, calibration_warrant_rate). |
| Calibrated Q3 pre-warrant sales q3_pre_warrant_reference | 2026Q3 / shared | 564.10 USD_millions | derived: Net guidance midpoint divided by base retained share; fixed demand reference for all sensitivities. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_guide, calibration_net_factor). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2026q3_ramp | 2026Q3 / downside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q3 / downside | 518.97 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2026q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2026q3_warrant_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2026q3_warrants | 2026Q3 / downside | 18.16 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 500.81 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2026q3_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q3 / downside | 365.88 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | 347.71 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_before_warrant, downside_2026q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / downside | 234.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 113.71 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2026q3_interest_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / downside | 126.71 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2026q3_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2026q3_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 19.01 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_pretax, downside_2026q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2026q3_net_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 107.71 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_pretax, downside_2026q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 76.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / downside | 207.87 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_net_income, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_warrants, downside_2026q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2026q3_wc | 2026Q3 / downside | 90.15 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | 117.72 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | 92.72 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2026q4_ramp | 2026Q4 / downside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q4 / downside | 552.82 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2026q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2026q4_warrant_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2026q4_warrants | 2026Q4 / downside | 19.35 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 533.47 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2026q4_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q4 / downside | 389.74 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 370.39 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_before_warrant, downside_2026q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / downside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 120.39 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2026q4_interest_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / downside | 133.39 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2026q4_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 20.01 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_pretax, downside_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2026q4_net_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 113.38 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_pretax, downside_2026q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 82.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / downside | 221.73 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_net_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_warrants, downside_2026q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2026q4_wc | 2026Q4 / downside | 96.02 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 125.71 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | 95.71 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2027q1_ramp | 2027Q1 / downside | 102.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q1 / downside | 575.38 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2027q1_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2027q1_warrant_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2027q1_warrants | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.14 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q1_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 555.25 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q1_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2027q1_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q1 / downside | 405.65 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 385.51 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_before_warrant, downside_2027q1_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / downside | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 115.51 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2027q1_interest_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / downside | 128.51 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2027q1_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 19.28 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pretax, downside_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2027q1_net_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 109.23 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_pretax, downside_2027q1_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 87.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / downside | 224.37 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_warrants, downside_2027q1_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2027q1_wc | 2027Q1 / downside | 99.94 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 124.43 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q1_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | 89.43 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2027q2_ramp | 2027Q2 / downside | 110.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q2 / downside | 620.51 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2027q2_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2027q2_warrant_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2027q2_warrants | 2027Q2 / downside | 21.72 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q2_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 598.79 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q2_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2027q2_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q2 / downside | 437.46 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 415.74 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_before_warrant, downside_2027q2_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / downside | 285.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 130.74 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2027q2_interest_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / downside | 143.74 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2027q2_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 21.56 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pretax, downside_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2027q2_net_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 122.18 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_pretax, downside_2027q2_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 92.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / downside | 244.90 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_net_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_warrants, downside_2027q2_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2027q2_wc | 2027Q2 / downside | 107.78 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 137.12 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q2_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | 97.12 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2027q3_ramp | 2027Q3 / downside | 118.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q3 / downside | 665.64 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2027q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2027q3_warrant_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2027q3_warrants | 2027Q3 / downside | 23.30 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 642.34 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2027q3_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q3 / downside | 469.28 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 445.98 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_before_warrant, downside_2027q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / downside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 145.98 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2027q3_interest_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / downside | 158.98 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2027q3_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 23.85 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pretax, downside_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2027q3_net_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 135.13 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_pretax, downside_2027q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 98.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / downside | 266.43 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_net_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_warrants, downside_2027q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2027q3_wc | 2027Q3 / downside | 115.62 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 150.81 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | 110.81 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 downside_2027q4_ramp | 2027Q4 / downside | 126.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q4 / downside | 710.77 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, downside_2027q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales downside_2027q4_warrant_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 3.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction downside_2027q4_warrants | 2027Q4 / downside | 24.88 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 685.89 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 70.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction downside_2027q4_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q4 / downside | 501.09 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, downside_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 476.22 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_before_warrant, downside_2027q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / downside | 315.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 161.22 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income downside_2027q4_interest_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings downside_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / downside | 174.22 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate downside_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense downside_2027q4_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 26.13 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pretax, downside_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income downside_2027q4_net_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 148.08 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_pretax, downside_2027q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 104.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / downside | 287.96 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_net_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_warrants, downside_2027q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue downside_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use downside_2027q4_wc | 2027Q4 / downside | 123.46 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 164.50 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 119.50 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 1,735.04 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 1,240.81 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 385.18 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) downside_fy2026_net_income | FY2026 / downside | 454.49 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_income, downside_2026q3_net_income, downside_2026q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) downside_fy2026_warrants | FY2026 / downside | 49.83 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_warrants, downside_2026q3_warrants, downside_2026q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 405.71 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 83.05 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | 322.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 2,482.28 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 1,723.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 553.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) downside_fy2027_net_income | FY2027 / downside | 514.63 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_income, downside_2027q2_net_income, downside_2027q3_net_income, downside_2027q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) downside_fy2027_warrants | FY2027 / downside | 90.03 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_warrants, downside_2027q2_warrants, downside_2027q3_warrants, downside_2027q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 576.85 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | 416.85 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2026q3_ramp | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q3 / base | 564.10 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2026q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2026q3_warrant_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2026q3_warrants | 2026Q3 / base | 14.10 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 550.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2026q3_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q3 / base | 410.10 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 396.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_before_warrant, base_2026q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / base | 234.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | 162.00 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2026q3_interest_income | 2026Q3 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / base | 175.00 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2026q3_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 4.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2026q3_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_pretax, base_2026q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2026q3_net_income | 2026Q3 / base | 168.00 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_pretax, base_2026q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 76.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / base | 264.10 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_net_income, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_warrants, base_2026q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2026q3_wc | 2026Q3 / base | 66.00 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 198.10 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_wc, base_2026q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 22.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | 176.10 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2026q4_ramp | 2026Q4 / base | 120.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q4 / base | 676.92 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2026q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2026q4_warrant_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2026q4_warrants | 2026Q4 / base | 16.92 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 660.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2026q4_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q4 / base | 492.12 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 475.20 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_before_warrant, base_2026q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / base | 265.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 210.20 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2026q4_interest_income | 2026Q4 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / base | 223.20 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2026q4_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 26.78 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_pretax, base_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2026q4_net_income | 2026Q4 / base | 196.42 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_pretax, base_2026q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 87.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / base | 307.34 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_net_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_warrants, base_2026q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2026q4_wc | 2026Q4 / base | 79.20 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 228.14 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_wc, base_2026q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 200.14 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2027q1_ramp | 2027Q1 / base | 135.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q1 / base | 761.54 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2027q1_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2027q1_warrant_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2027q1_warrants | 2027Q1 / base | 19.04 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q1_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 742.50 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q1_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2027q1_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q1 / base | 553.64 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 534.60 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_before_warrant, base_2027q1_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / base | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 244.60 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2027q1_interest_income | 2027Q1 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / base | 257.60 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2027q1_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 30.91 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pretax, base_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2027q1_net_income | 2027Q1 / base | 226.69 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_pretax, base_2027q1_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 94.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / base | 347.73 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_warrants, base_2027q1_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2027q1_wc | 2027Q1 / base | 89.10 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 258.63 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_wc, base_2027q1_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 32.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 226.63 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2027q2_ramp | 2027Q2 / base | 155.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q2 / base | 874.36 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2027q2_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2027q2_warrant_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2027q2_warrants | 2027Q2 / base | 21.86 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q2_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 852.50 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q2_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2027q2_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q2 / base | 635.66 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 613.80 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_before_warrant, base_2027q2_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / base | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 293.80 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2027q2_interest_income | 2027Q2 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / base | 306.80 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2027q2_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 36.82 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pretax, base_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2027q2_net_income | 2027Q2 / base | 269.98 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_pretax, base_2027q2_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 102.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / base | 402.84 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_net_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_warrants, base_2027q2_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2027q2_wc | 2027Q2 / base | 102.30 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 300.54 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_wc, base_2027q2_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 38.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 262.54 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2027q3_ramp | 2027Q3 / base | 175.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q3 / base | 987.18 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2027q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2027q3_warrant_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2027q3_warrants | 2027Q3 / base | 24.68 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 962.50 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2027q3_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q3 / base | 717.68 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 693.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_before_warrant, base_2027q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / base | 350.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 343.00 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2027q3_interest_income | 2027Q3 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / base | 356.00 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2027q3_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 42.72 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pretax, base_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2027q3_net_income | 2027Q3 / base | 313.28 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_pretax, base_2027q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 112.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / base | 459.96 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_net_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_warrants, base_2027q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2027q3_wc | 2027Q3 / base | 115.50 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 344.46 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 42.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 302.46 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 base_2027q4_ramp | 2027Q4 / base | 195.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction base_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q4 / base | 1,100.00 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, base_2027q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales base_2027q4_warrant_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction base_2027q4_warrants | 2027Q4 / base | 27.50 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,072.50 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction base_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 72.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction base_2027q4_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q4 / base | 799.70 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, base_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 772.20 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_before_warrant, base_2027q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / base | 380.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 392.20 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income base_2027q4_interest_income | 2027Q4 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings base_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / base | 405.20 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate base_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense base_2027q4_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 48.62 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pretax, base_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income base_2027q4_net_income | 2027Q4 / base | 356.58 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_pretax, base_2027q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 122.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items base_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / base | 517.08 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_net_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_warrants, base_2027q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue base_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use base_2027q4_wc | 2027Q4 / base | 128.70 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 388.38 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 340.38 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 1,910.76 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 1,393.91 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 523.28 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) base_fy2026_net_income | FY2026 / base | 597.81 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_income, base_2026q3_net_income, base_2026q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) base_fy2026_warrants | FY2026 / base | 43.34 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_warrants, base_2026q3_warrants, base_2026q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 588.52 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 78.05 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 510.46 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 3,630.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 2,613.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 1,273.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) base_fy2027_net_income | FY2027 / base | 1,166.53 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_income, base_2027q2_net_income, base_2027q3_net_income, base_2027q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) base_fy2027_warrants | FY2027 / base | 93.08 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_warrants, base_2027q2_warrants, base_2027q3_warrants, base_2027q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 1,292.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 1,132.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2026q3_ramp | 2026Q3 / upside | 102.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q3 / upside | 575.38 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2026q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2026q3_warrant_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2026q3_warrants | 2026Q3 / upside | 11.51 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 563.88 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2026q3_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q3 / upside | 425.78 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 414.28 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_before_warrant, upside_2026q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2026q3_opex | 2026Q3 / upside | 236.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 178.28 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2026q3_interest_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2026q3_pretax | 2026Q3 / upside | 191.28 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2026q3_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 4.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2026q3_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 7.65 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_pretax, upside_2026q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2026q3_net_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 183.63 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_pretax, upside_2026q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 78.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / upside | 279.13 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_net_income, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_warrants, upside_2026q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2026q3_wc | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.11 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 234.02 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | 209.02 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2026q4_ramp | 2026Q4 / upside | 130.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2026Q4 / upside | 733.33 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2026q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2026q4_warrant_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2026q4_warrants | 2026Q4 / upside | 14.67 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 718.67 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2026q4_gross_before_warrant | 2026Q4 / upside | 542.67 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2026q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 528.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_before_warrant, upside_2026q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / upside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 248.00 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2026q4_interest_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2026q4_pretax | 2026Q4 / upside | 261.00 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2026q4_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 31.32 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_pretax, upside_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2026q4_net_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 229.68 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_pretax, upside_2026q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 91.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / upside | 342.35 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_net_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_warrants, upside_2026q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2026q4_wc | 2026Q4 / upside | 57.49 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 284.85 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 249.85 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2027q1_ramp | 2027Q1 / upside | 160.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q1 / upside | 902.56 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2027q1_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2027q1_warrant_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2027q1_warrants | 2027Q1 / upside | 18.05 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q1_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 884.51 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q1_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2027q1_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q1 / upside | 667.90 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q1_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 649.85 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_before_warrant, upside_2027q1_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / upside | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 329.85 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2027q1_interest_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2027q1_pretax | 2027Q1 / upside | 342.85 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2027q1_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 41.14 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pretax, upside_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2027q1_net_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 301.70 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_pretax, upside_2027q1_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 103.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / upside | 430.76 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_warrants, upside_2027q1_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2027q1_wc | 2027Q1 / upside | 70.76 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 359.99 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q1_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 314.99 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2027q2_ramp | 2027Q2 / upside | 195.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,100.00 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2027q2_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2027q2_warrant_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2027q2_warrants | 2027Q2 / upside | 22.00 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q2_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,078.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q2_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2027q2_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q2 / upside | 814.00 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q2_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 792.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_before_warrant, upside_2027q2_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / upside | 355.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 437.00 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2027q2_interest_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2027q2_pretax | 2027Q2 / upside | 450.00 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2027q2_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 54.00 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pretax, upside_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2027q2_net_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 396.00 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_pretax, upside_2027q2_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 116.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / upside | 543.00 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_net_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_warrants, upside_2027q2_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2027q2_wc | 2027Q2 / upside | 86.24 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 456.76 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q2_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 406.76 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2027q3_ramp | 2027Q3 / upside | 230.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,297.44 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2027q3_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2027q3_warrant_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2027q3_warrants | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.95 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q3_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,271.49 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q3_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2027q3_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q3 / upside | 960.10 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q3_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 934.15 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_before_warrant, upside_2027q3_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / upside | 390.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 544.15 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2027q3_interest_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2027q3_pretax | 2027Q3 / upside | 557.15 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2027q3_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 66.86 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pretax, upside_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2027q3_net_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 490.30 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_pretax, upside_2027q3_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 130.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / upside | 656.24 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_net_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_warrants, upside_2027q3_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2027q3_wc | 2027Q3 / upside | 101.72 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 554.53 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 60.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 494.53 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Demand versus calibrated Q3 upside_2027q4_ramp | 2027Q4 / upside | 260.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Sales before customer-warrant reduction upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,466.67 USD_millions | derived: Demand sensitivity independent of the warrant deduction. Formula: multiply(q3_pre_warrant_reference, upside_2027q4_ramp). |
| Warrant reduction / pre-warrant sales upside_2027q4_warrant_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction upside_2027q4_warrants | 2027Q4 / upside | 29.33 USD_millions | derived: Noncash consideration payable to a customer, reducing revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q4_warrant_rate). |
| Net revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,437.33 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant is deducted exactly once from sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q4_warrants). |
| Gross margin before customer-warrant deduction upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 74.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Gross profit before warrant reduction upside_2027q4_gross_before_warrant | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,085.33 USD_millions | derived: Desk product-mix and unit-cost assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_sales, upside_2027q4_pre_warrant_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,056.00 USD_millions | derived: Customer warrant reduces revenue and gross profit by the same amount. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_before_warrant, upside_2027q4_warrants). |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / upside | 425.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating stock compensation. Base Q3 equals the GAAP guidance midpoint; later periods are desk assumptions. |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 631.00 USD_millions | derived: No second deduction for operating SBC. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_opex). |
| Interest and other income upside_2027q4_interest_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Pretax earnings upside_2027q4_pretax | 2027Q4 / upside | 644.00 USD_millions | derived: No extraordinary gains assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_interest_income). |
| Accrual tax rate upside_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Base/upside Q3 use management approximate 4%; future rates are normalized desk assumptions, not a recurring tax benefit. |
| Income tax expense upside_2027q4_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 77.28 USD_millions | derived: Positive expense; no modeled valuation-allowance release. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pretax, upside_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Net income upside_2027q4_net_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 566.72 USD_millions | derived: After forecast tax expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_pretax, upside_2027q4_tax). |
| Total expensed stock compensation upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 145.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Earnings plus noncash items upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / upside | 752.05 USD_millions | derived: Warrant reduction and total expensed SBC are added back once; potential dilution remains. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_net_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_warrants, upside_2027q4_da). |
| Working-capital use / net revenue upside_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Net receivables, inventory, payables and other operating timing; not gross receivables added twice. |
| Net working-capital cash use upside_2027q4_wc | 2027Q4 / upside | 114.99 USD_millions | derived: Growth funding and collection timing sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 637.07 USD_millions | derived: Proxy excluding acquisitions and investment-security purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_wc). |
| Cash PP&E purchases upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 65.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes assumed settlement timing of equipment payables; reported unpaid PP&E is not separately deducted again. |
| Cash after capex upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 572.07 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions, financing and economic dilution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 1,983.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 1,464.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 577.36 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) upside_fy2026_net_income | FY2026 / upside | 646.70 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_net_income, upside_2026q3_net_income, upside_2026q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) upside_fy2026_warrants | FY2026 / upside | 38.49 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_warrants, upside_2026q3_warrants, upside_2026q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 681.15 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 88.05 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 593.10 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net reported-scope revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 4,671.33 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 3,432.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 1,942.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Net income ($M) upside_fy2027_net_income | FY2027 / upside | 1,754.72 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_income, upside_2027q2_net_income, upside_2027q3_net_income, upside_2027q4_net_income). |
| Customer-warrant revenue reduction ($M) upside_fy2027_warrants | FY2027 / upside | 95.33 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_warrants, upside_2027q2_warrants, upside_2027q3_warrants, upside_2027q4_warrants). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 2,008.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E purchases ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 220.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 1,788.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
Model boundaries
- No product-family revenue split is disclosed. Scorpio leadership is a management expectation; the model uses total sales, not invented Scorpio or hyperscaler bookings.
- The pre-warrant sales bridge is an analytical reconstruction, not a reported revenue metric. Customer-warrant expense reduces reported revenue and is added back once in the cash bridge. It also creates potential dilution.
- Q2 income benefited from a $50.263M tax benefit. Forecast tax rates do not repeat that windfall or assume release of the US deferred-tax valuation allowance.
- CFO is an earnings/noncash/working-capital proxy, not a complete cash-flow statement. Cash tax and refund timing can differ materially from accrual taxes.
- No weighted diluted-share forecast, EPS, valuation, acquisitions, financing, or full balance sheet is provided. FCF excludes acquisition spending and does not measure dilution-adjusted owner earnings.
A faster connectivity ramp with explicit warrant and tax bridges
How much of the demand ramp becomes cash after customer economics and growth investment?
H1 revenue was $700.761M, gross profit $522.708M and operating income $151.081M. Net income of $233.398M included $57.159M of tax benefits. CFO was $162.276M after $109.461M receivables and $53.127M inventory cash uses; $28.054M PP&E purchases left $134.222M before acquisitions. Customer warrants reduced H1 revenue by $12.313M and were added back in CFO. The February grant covers up to 3.262299M shares at $142.82, with maximum grant-date value $280M, subject to purchase-related vesting. This is neither an immediate cash liability nor free revenue. June cash and securities totaled $1,252.958M; $69.214M of acquisition cash is outside FCF. The model calibrates Q3 net revenue and GAAP spending to guidance without fabricating a product-family sales split.
The competing explanation
A narrow set of customer architectures can drive exceptional growth and then slow abruptly. Product mix, customer incentives, competition and additional spending can compress returns even while revenue rises. Equity compensation and warrants can leave per-share outcomes below aggregate cash growth.
Risks to track
- Four direct customers represented 29%, 25%, 15% and 13% of Q2 revenue; direct customers are not necessarily four distinct end users.
- Customer warrants can reduce net revenue and dilute ownership as vesting conditions are met.
- Inventory and receivables require cash before customer collections.
- Foundry, packaging and qualification capacity can constrain delivery.
- High equity compensation and tax benefits complicate earnings comparisons.
- Product adoption, export controls and competition can change the growth path.
Next checkpoints
- Q3 operating delivery · Q3 2026; results date unconfirmed (estimated). Compare net sales, gross margin and GAAP operating spending with August guidance.
- Customer incentives and collections · Each quarterly filing (estimated). Reconcile warrant revenue deductions, shares, inventory and receivables with CFO.
- Tax normalization · Next results (estimated). Separate recurring tax expense from excess equity-compensation benefits or a valuation-allowance release.
Data coverage and open work
- No product-family revenue split is disclosed. Scorpio leadership is a management expectation; the model uses total sales, not invented Scorpio or hyperscaler bookings.
- The pre-warrant sales bridge is an analytical reconstruction, not a reported revenue metric. Customer-warrant expense reduces reported revenue and is added back once in the cash bridge. It also creates potential dilution.
- Q2 income benefited from a $50.263M tax benefit. Forecast tax rates do not repeat that windfall or assume release of the US deferred-tax valuation allowance.
- CFO is an earnings/noncash/working-capital proxy, not a complete cash-flow statement. Cash tax and refund timing can differ materially from accrual taxes.
- No weighted diluted-share forecast, EPS, valuation, acquisitions, financing, or full balance sheet is provided. FCF excludes acquisition spending and does not measure dilution-adjusted owner earnings.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed strong, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.7 | +0.0 | +2.7 | 51% |
| 5 sessions | -6.7 | +0.6 | +8.4 | 55% |
| 10 sessions | -9.3 | +0.2 | +11.0 | 51% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.