CHART COLLEGE · THE CLASS

The quiet uptrend above the 200-day

What the market says

"A stock in a quiet uptrend above its 200-day average keeps drifting up: the trend is your friend."

The pattern, as the memory screens it: s.ret_120d >= 20 AND s.vs_ma200 >= 5 AND s.rvol <= 0.8 AND abs(s.intraday_pct) <= 1, liquid names ($50M traded on the anchor day, above $5), 2019 to the latest close. A name that is normally thin can qualify on a spike day, so the instances lean toward the names that spike. Questions this lesson answers:

How often was it higher a month later, and by how much?
How does that compare with the base rate of all liquid days?

What the charts did

The next session was no different from an ordinary day: 49% of 102,697 closed below the anchor, against 49% of ordinary days. Median next-session move +0.0%.

A week on, 52% were above the anchor, about as many than the 55% of ordinary days; median +0.2%, and the middle 80% ran from -5.4% to +5.4% (ordinary: -6.1% to +6.8%).

A month on, 53% were above the anchor, about as many than the 53% of ordinary days; median +0.5%, and the middle 80% ran from -11.8% to +12.7% (ordinary: -12.6% to +13.5%).

Three months on, 56% were above the anchor, about as many than the 54% of ordinary days; median +1.9%, and the middle 80% ran from -19.4% to +25.3% (ordinary: -19.9% to +24.8%).

A year on, 58% were above the anchor, about as many than the 56% of ordinary days; median +6.4%, and the middle 80% ran from -34.8% to +59.9% (ordinary: -38.2% to +58.2%).

The week after this pattern is 0.8 times as wide as an ordinary week. That spread, not the median, is what the pattern tells you.

102,727 instances across 2,592 stocks, 2019-01-02 to 2026-09-18. The ordinary-day base rate is every liquid stock-day on one Wednesday a month over the same years.

Raw move from the anchor close	Instances	Share above	Median	Middle 80%	Ordinary day: share above	Ordinary day: middle 80%
Next session	102,697	51%	+0.0%	-2.3% to +2.2%	51%	-3.0% to +2.9%
1 week (5 sessions)	102,381	52%	+0.2%	-5.4% to +5.4%	55%	-6.1% to +6.8%
1 month (21 sessions)	100,157	53%	+0.5%	-11.8% to +12.7%	53%	-12.6% to +13.5%
3 months (63)	95,613	56%	+1.9%	-19.4% to +25.3%	54%	-19.9% to +24.8%
6 months (126)	89,816	60%	+5.0%	-24.8% to +38.5%	55%	-27.6% to +35.7%
1 year (252)	77,770	58%	+6.4%	-34.8% to +59.9%	56%	-38.2% to +58.2%

How it looks

Two dozen instances chosen at random, each cut at its own anchor: dark is the run-in, orange is what followed. Pick how far ahead to look; the tiles regroup by what happened.

Try it on any chart

Pick any ticker and date on the wall and the memory shows you the charts that looked like it. The class is the pattern in bulk; the wall is one chart at a time.

JSON · All lessons · built 2026-09-21