Up 50% in a month
What the market says
"Parabolic moves end badly."
What the charts did
More of them gave some back the next session than on an ordinary day: 54% of 30,944 closed below the anchor, against 49% of ordinary days. Median next-session move -0.3%.
A week on, 46% were above the anchor, fewer than the 55% of ordinary days; median -1.0%, and the middle 80% ran from -22.2% to +19.6% (ordinary: -6.1% to +6.8%).
A month on, 44% were above the anchor, fewer than the 53% of ordinary days; median -3.4%, and the middle 80% ran from -39.7% to +37.6% (ordinary: -12.6% to +13.5%).
Three months on, 39% were above the anchor, fewer than the 54% of ordinary days; median -12.2%, and the middle 80% ran from -58.3% to +58.2% (ordinary: -19.9% to +24.8%).
A year on, 39% were above the anchor, fewer than the 56% of ordinary days; median -21.8%, and the middle 80% ran from -83.2% to +139.2% (ordinary: -38.2% to +58.2%).
The week after this pattern is 3.2 times as wide as an ordinary week. That spread, not the median, is what the pattern tells you.
| Raw move from the anchor close | Instances | Share above | Median | Middle 80% | Ordinary day: share above | Ordinary day: middle 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | 30,944 | 46% | -0.3% | -10.5% to +9.6% | 51% | -3.0% to +2.9% |
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 30,870 | 46% | -1.0% | -22.2% to +19.6% | 55% | -6.1% to +6.8% |
| 1 month (21 sessions) | 30,148 | 44% | -3.4% | -39.7% to +37.6% | 53% | -12.6% to +13.5% |
| 3 months (63) | 28,691 | 39% | -12.2% | -58.3% to +58.2% | 54% | -19.9% to +24.8% |
| 6 months (126) | 25,104 | 39% | -15.4% | -68.2% to +81.8% | 55% | -27.6% to +35.7% |
| 1 year (252) | 21,253 | 39% | -21.8% | -83.2% to +139.2% | 56% | -38.2% to +58.2% |