Graham McCain · Alphaforge Research · Published Sep 17, 2026 · 4:58 pm ET · Revision 4 Scored over 5 trading sessions.
AI summary
AppLovin’s stock closed at $326.56, which is 56% below its $745.61 high. The research note views this decline as stemming from the market’s reaction to its second-quarter results on August 5, not a recent class-action announcement. On August 6, the stock fell 20% following that earnings report and has remained near that level since.
Historical data from 300 similar past events shows a five-session range of low -4.4, middle +0.6, and high +5.8, with 57% of those instances rising. The note highlights the company’s own third-quarter revenue guidance of $2.055 to $2.085 billion as the key upcoming test. The next checkpoint is the close of trading on September 17.
Two paragraphs generated from the note. The authored note below is the record. Numbers only, no side.
1. The state
As of the 2026-09-16 close. Session 1 has closed.
AppLovin closed September 16 at $326.56, down 1.5% from $331.46, on about $1.15 billion of dollar volume, below average. It is 56% below the 52-week high of $745.61 on September 29, 2025. The last completed shock is August 6: $335.67, down 20% from the August 5 close of $417.80, on 15.2 million shares, after the second-quarter 8-K.
2. What's new
The last AppLovin 8-K is August 5, Item 2.02: $1.92 billion of revenue, $3.76 diluted EPS, $1.61 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $863 million of free cash flow, Q3 revenue guided $2.055 to $2.085 billion.
3. What that does to the state
At 335 million shares, Wednesday is about $110 billion.
300 similar days · 168 stocks · 247 sessions · 1h band
Vs the market, in points
Low
Middle
High
Share up
1 session
-3.1
+0.2
+3.6
54%
5 sessions
-7.7
-0.0
+8.9
50%
10 sessions
-11.6
-0.9
+11.3
44%
The band is the prior close's neighborhood — what followed similar states as of the cutoff.
4. Same state, or a new one
Stayed in yesterday's neighborhood
Session 1 vs the market: -2.6. Prior-state 1-session range: -3.1 / +0.2 / +3.6.
APP closed at $321.60, -1.5% versus the $326.56 close of 2026-09-16, on 4.4 million shares, about 1.0 times the 20-day average; the session's range was $314.84 to $333.43 after a $331.86 open. Against the market (SPY +1.1%), the excess move was -2.7 points.
We are wrong if Q3, or a later 8-K, shows sequential growth that does not match a restored model lift, meaning August 6 was not the whole reprice.
Session 1: -2.6 vs band -3.1/+0.2/+3.6, stayed in range. Session 5: -5.3 vs band -7.7/-0.0/+8.9, stayed in range. Session 10: -12.2 vs band -11.6/-0.9/+11.3, left yesterday's range. Scorecard
When we look again
Session 1: September 17 close. Session 5: September 23. Session 10: September 30. Company: third-quarter report; the second-quarter 8-K was August 5. Q3 revenue is guided $2.055 to $2.085 billion.
AppLovin is not here because of a class-action press release. It is here because a growth multiple paid for compounding the August 5 print did not confirm.
The 52-week high is $745.61 on September 29, 2025. The highest close is $733.60 on December 22. Wednesday's close was $326.56, 56% below that high, about $110 billion on 335 million shares. The last needle is August 6. On August 5 the company reported $1.92 billion of second-quarter revenue, up 53%, diluted EPS of $3.76, adjusted EBITDA of $1.61 billion, and $863 million of free cash flow. The stock closed that regular session at $417.80. On August 6 it closed $335.67, down 20%, on 15.2 million shares. It has not left that neighborhood. The low since then is $297.50 on August 24.
A law-firm release at 13:04 ET said a complaint covers February 12 through August 5. The class period ends on the print the tape already took 20 points for. No company 8-K today. That PR does not change the state.
The state is a post-print downtrend: the multiple wanted scheduled compounding, Q2 was a 53% year that the tape still cut, and Q3 is guided $2.055 to $2.085 billion. That guide, not a lawsuit caption, is the next operating test.
Other reading, tape, and sources
The other reading
Q3 prints at or above $2.055 to $2.085 billion and sequential growth shows the August 5 shortfall was timing. Then August 6 was the whole adjustment and $326 is a multiple that already moved. A complaint can still matter later if it forces a dated operating admission. That is not what today's PR did.
What would change this
We are wrong if Q3, or a later 8-K, shows sequential growth that does not match a restored model lift, meaning August 6 was not the whole reprice.
Today's 3% is wrong if five sessions give it back with no new operating number.
Inconclusive if ad-tech names move together and AppLovin's print cannot be isolated.
The tape
AppLovin closed September 16 at $326.56, down 1.5% from $331.46, on about $1.15 billion of dollar volume, below average. It is 56% below the 52-week high of $745.61 on September 29, 2025. The last completed shock is August 6: $335.67, down 20% from the August 5 close of $417.80, on 15.2 million shares, after the second-quarter 8-K. July 13 had already closed $442.85, down 12.6%. Today's last print around 14:40 ET was $316.83, 3% below Wednesday, still an open session. It was not on the 07:15 ET Stocktwits or Yahoo lists.
What was filed
The last AppLovin 8-K is August 5, Item 2.02: $1.92 billion of revenue, $3.76 diluted EPS, $1.61 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $863 million of free cash flow, Q3 revenue guided $2.055 to $2.085 billion. No company 8-K has been filed today. Gainey McKenna, via GlobeNewswire at 13:04 ET, said a class action in the Northern District of California covers purchasers from February 12 through August 5. We have not read the complaint. That write-up restates the print the tape already repriced. The issuer news and presentations indexes returned a cookie page instead of the full listing.
The numbers around the move
At 335 million shares, Wednesday is about $110 billion. Cash was $3.05 billion against $3.52 billion of long-term debt at June 30. Our labelled reading: the market is pricing that last year's compounding multiple does not survive a quarter the model lift missed, and Q3 is the test, not a lawyer PR. We did not retrieve a dated consensus for today. Intraday −3% is not a completed session.
What the stock did
Not yet observed as a completed session after the PR. The September 16 regular close was $326.56, in the August 6 neighborhood. Today's last print around 14:40 ET was $316.83. Session 1 is the September 17 regular session.
Close update, session 1 (September 17, written after the close): APP closed at $321.60, -1.5% versus the $326.56 close of 2026-09-16, on 4.4 million shares, about 1.0 times the 20-day average; the session's range was $314.84 to $333.43 after a $331.86 open. Against the market (SPY +1.1%), the excess move was -2.7 points. Against the 1-day range of what followed similar states as of the prior close (p10 -1.9, median +0.0, p90 +2.2), this session left that neighborhood (below the quiet tail). An abnormal follow-through for that state — look at what changed — not a miss by the memory.
The comparison
The range on the page was measured on the September 16 close, the post-August-6 downtrend, before this afternoon's law-firm PR. These are historical distributions, not a forecast, and they suggest no side.
Sources
Read the August 5 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, Yahoo daily bars for the 52-week high and the August 6 session, one-minute bars for today's print, the issuer IR overview, and the Chart Library packet for the September 16 close. The complaint itself was not read. No AppLovin 8-K was filed today. The issuer news and presentations indexes returned a cookie page instead of the full listing. A dated contributor-level consensus was not retrieved.
