The weak close on heavy volume
What the market says
"Closing at the low on big volume means the sellers are not done."
What the charts did
The next session was no different from an ordinary day: 50% of 8,037 closed below the anchor, against 49% of ordinary days. Median next-session move +0.0%.
A week on, 50% were above the anchor, fewer than the 55% of ordinary days; median -0.1%, and the middle 80% ran from -11.9% to +10.5% (ordinary: -6.1% to +6.8%).
A month on, 50% were above the anchor, about as many than the 53% of ordinary days; median +0.1%, and the middle 80% ran from -22.2% to +19.4% (ordinary: -12.6% to +13.5%).
Three months on, 51% were above the anchor, fewer than the 54% of ordinary days; median +0.4%, and the middle 80% ran from -35.2% to +36.6% (ordinary: -19.9% to +24.8%).
A year on, 51% were above the anchor, fewer than the 56% of ordinary days; median +0.8%, and the middle 80% ran from -66.3% to +76.3% (ordinary: -38.2% to +58.2%).
The week after this pattern is 1.7 times as wide as an ordinary week. That spread, not the median, is what the pattern tells you.
| Raw move from the anchor close | Instances | Share above | Median | Middle 80% | Ordinary day: share above | Ordinary day: middle 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | 8,037 | 50% | +0.0% | -6.2% to +6.0% | 51% | -3.0% to +2.9% |
| 1 week (5 sessions) | 8,008 | 50% | -0.1% | -11.9% to +10.5% | 55% | -6.1% to +6.8% |
| 1 month (21 sessions) | 7,937 | 50% | +0.1% | -22.2% to +19.4% | 53% | -12.6% to +13.5% |
| 3 months (63) | 7,746 | 51% | +0.4% | -35.2% to +36.6% | 54% | -19.9% to +24.8% |
| 6 months (126) | 7,371 | 50% | -0.1% | -48.6% to +48.4% | 55% | -27.6% to +35.7% |
| 1 year (252) | 6,507 | 51% | +0.8% | -66.3% to +76.3% | 56% | -38.2% to +58.2% |