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Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The transition is already visible in revenue: HPC contributed $31.9M of $44.8M Q2 revenue. The next question is how the 102 MW delivered after CB3 becomes 438 MW at Lake Mariner and how much funding is consumed before the 401 MW Justified project produces rent. A power agreement improves project readiness but does not equal rent-producing capacity. Our scenarios connect delivery timing to rental income, site cash margins and construction spending.","scenario_ranges":"Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Accepted critical IT MW, initial rent and cash capex are the deciding evidence. Delayed CB4/CB5 delivery, weaker initial rent realization or a more expensive funding mix weaken the case; predictable commissioning and cash conversion strengthen it. Check parent cash after completion support, note amortization and outside-owner claims; reconcile collection of the July 6 effective Abernathy sale installments, separately from the sale date."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000108330126000166/wulf-20260630.htm","title":"August 5 Form 10-Q: segment revenue, cash flow and debt","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results","title":"August 5 Q2 results and contracted campus delivery schedule","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/145/kentucky-psc-approves-482-mw-power-agreement-for-terawulfs-justified-data-campus","title":"August 24 Kentucky power agreement approval","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Average critical IT MW accepted by paying tenants","Rental revenue and site cash margins during the ramp","Construction commitments, financing and retained cash"],"description":"TeraWulf develops power-connected data centers and is transitioning Lake Mariner from Bitcoin mining to long-term HPC hosting. New projects expand the contracted footprint, but utility power approval, construction completion, delivered IT capacity and rent commencement occur at different times. The near-term model is driven by Lake Mariner commissioning and the later Justified campus ramp."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-03"},"identity":{"cik":1083301,"sic":"6199","name":"TERAWULF INC.","symbol":"WULF","cluster":"AI infrastructure & power","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Construction or utility delays push rent beyond the modeled quarters.","Critical IT capacity and gross utility power are not interchangeable.","Lifetime contract revenue does not disclose first-year rental economics.","New debt, warrants or equity can dilute the benefit of higher property income.","Asset-sale closing and proceeds remain separate from recurring operations.","Project completion guarantees, excess-cash-flow debt sweeps and optional early convertible cash settlement can constrain liquidity beyond scheduled maturities. Justified has a 6.8% outside equity claim; consolidated cash contribution is not wholly distributable parent cash."],"title":"Turning power and construction into leased IT capacity","question":"How quickly does delivered HPC capacity cover the cash needed to build the next phase?","economics":"June 30 Lake Mariner capacity was 81 MW of critical IT; CB3 raised that to 102 MW in July. Another 336 MW under construction would bring the site to 438 MW. Justified adds a contracted 401 MW of critical IT under a 20-year base agreement of roughly $19B. Kentucky approved 482 MW of utility power on August 24; this is a different measure from usable IT MW. Initial Justified delivery targets H2 2027. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $154.3M, Bitcoin sales contributed $24.6M in investing, and PP&E purchases/deposits used $1,378.5M. Even strong revenue growth therefore needs a financing bridge. The Abernathy disposal was effective July 6; $530M approximate consideration is due in $250M/$150M/$130M installments. Modeled collection is separate from verified cash receipts.","change_note":"Added conditional funding balances, scheduled principal, restricted-cash separation and dated share/minority claims. Corrected Abernathy: disposed effective July 6, with three contractual installments, rather than an unclosed sale. Collection/fee assumptions are distinct from reported cash. Preserved operating forecasts; project guarantees, early convert settlements, outside-owner puts and future financing remain limitations.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Lake Mariner CB4 phased delivery","watch":"Compare delivered critical IT MW, first rent and construction cash used.","timing":"Second half of 2026 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Lake Mariner CB5 phased delivery","watch":"Confirm remaining capacity enters service and site cash margins improve.","timing":"Early 2027 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Justified first capacity","watch":"Track power readiness, financing, tenant acceptance and first-year rent.","timing":"Second half of 2027 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Abernathy installment collections","watch":"Reconcile $250M/$150M/approximately $130M installment collections, final adjustments, fees and taxes. Ownership was disposed effective July 6; do not confuse the sale date with receipt of the full consideration.","timing":"July 2026, by December 31, 2026 and April 30, 2027","date_status":"confirmed"}],"countercase":"A large contracted backlog can coexist with substantial funding needs and little near-term cash retained. Rental economics can be attractive at full utilization while phased commissioning, startup costs, interest and construction deposits consume cash. Faster delivery can still require more financing before it improves shareholder economics.","limitations":["Funding balances are conditional planning arithmetic from June cash, not present cash or a reconciled GAAP balance sheet. Negative balances identify unfilled funding needs. New issuance, early conversion, contingent claims, cash sweeps, acquisitions and minority distributions remain explicit gaps; no fully diluted EPS or equity valuation is claimed.","Average critical IT MW is distinct from utility power MW, nameplate capacity and quarter-end announced capacity. Lease activation schedules and initial contractual rent per MW are not fully disclosed.","The Justified lifetime average is not contractual first-year rent. An explicit realization factor approximates escalators and ramp effects; no optional extensions are included.","Cash proxies include mining monetization and exclude acquisitions, divestiture receipts, new financing, principal repayment and restricted reserve movements.","Abernathy was disposed effective July 6; scheduled collections are modeled conditionally and do not establish actual receipt. Muskie, Chesapeake and Hawkeye do not earn modeled 2026-27 revenue.","June consolidated cash is not automatically distributable parent cash. Justified has a 6.8% outside interest, project debt has completion guarantees and cash-sweep provisions, and early convertible cash settlements are not captured by scheduled maturities. Base/upside assume collection by the contractual due quarters; downside collects half, without a fictitious later catch-up. The non-dilutive Justified seller interest has a fixed-price put after the first operating anniversary, net of distributions; its undisclosed settlement is not inferred from its accounting value."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-20"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":72835000.00000001},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":120268000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":172701000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":210134000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":0,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. 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Negative balances identify unfilled funding needs. New issuance, early conversion, contingent claims, cash sweeps, acquisitions and minority distributions remain explicit gaps; no fully diluted EPS or equity valuation is claimed.","Average critical IT MW is distinct from utility power MW, nameplate capacity and quarter-end announced capacity. Lease activation schedules and initial contractual rent per MW are not fully disclosed.","The Justified lifetime average is not contractual first-year rent. An explicit realization factor approximates escalators and ramp effects; no optional extensions are included.","Cash proxies include mining monetization and exclude acquisitions, divestiture receipts, new financing, principal repayment and restricted reserve movements.","Abernathy was disposed effective July 6; scheduled collections are modeled conditionally and do not establish actual receipt. 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