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distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Production progress matters only when barrels can be marketed profitably and cash survives financing requirements. A positive operating cash quarter does not imply distributable shareholder cash.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track actual net sales, realized differentials, Hondo and refinery readiness, lender sweeps and litigation developments."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831481/000183148126000104/socc-20260630.htm","title":"June financial statements and July subsequent financing","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831481/000183148126000105/a991_2q26xpr.htm","title":"August sales/cost guidance and collar schedule","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831481/000183148126000108/socc-20260819.htm","title":"August court orders, penalty and appeal","retrieved":"2026-09-20"}],"business":{"drivers":["Net barrels sold after transport and refinery constraints","Brent price, basis differentials and partial-volume collars","Operating costs, capex and mandatory lender cash claims"],"description":"Sable operates the Santa Ynez offshore oil assets and associated processing and pipeline infrastructure in California. Economics depend on saleable net barrels, refinery access, crude-price differentials and debt service. The July refinancing adds mandatory principal payments and a full excess-cash-flow sweep."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-08"},"identity":{"cik":1831481,"sic":"1311","name":"Sable Offshore Corp.","symbol":"SOC","cluster":"Energy, materials & power","exchange":"NYSE"},"research":{"risks":["Pipeline litigation and environmental obligations.","Refinery access, sulfur differentials and marketing capacity.","Brent exposure outside hedged volumes and unhedged basis.","15% TLB coupon, mandatory amortization and full excess sweep.","Hondo readiness and sales versus production timing."],"title":"Oil sales through the refinery and lender cash waterfall","question":"Can restarted production generate cash after wide crude differentials and the July debt-service burden?","economics":"Q2 revenue was $137.1M and CFO $9.4M; reported capex was $39.4M. Average sales of roughly 21,000 net b/d differ from the 40,000 net b/d exit rate. July refinancing brought a $675M TLB at 15%, $345M convertibles at 6.5% and equity funding; the $500M revolver has zero borrowing base. Mandatory TLB principal is $16.875M per quarter in H2 and $33.75M per quarter in 2027, before a 100% excess-cash-flow sweep. August guidance projects 47,500-52,500 gross b/d in H2 with $24-28/bbl marketing/processing deducts. Collars cover only part of sales. The August court order declined shutdown relief but imposed $1.449M penalty and California appealed.","change_note":"Adds July refinancing, partial-volume collars, mandatory debt service and August legal update; no gross-financing cash double count.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Hondo and downstream access","watch":"Require confirmation of restart and actual increased sales, not expected throughput.","timing":"September 2026 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Q3 financial results","watch":"Reconcile gross/net sales, hedge settlements, cash coupons and mandatory payments.","timing":"Next release; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Court and regulatory developments","watch":"Read actual orders before changing interruption assumptions.","timing":"Each order or appeal","date_status":"event_driven"}],"countercase":"Refinery bottlenecks and crude-quality discounts can suppress cash despite productive wells. Regulatory interruption, lower oil prices and high coupon/principal payments may require further financing.","limitations":["Sales volumes differ from production and stored inventory. Exit rates and gross preliminary July/August volumes cannot be treated as quarterly net sales. Gas contribution is excluded consistently with approximately 100% oil guidance.","For unit-safe arithmetic, one million barrels is the quantity reference: $1/bbl corresponds to $1M per reference. Price cells therefore use USD_millions and quantity cells are dimensionless multiples of that reference.","Collars apply only to disclosed volumes: 28,000 b/d in H2 2026 and 25,000 in 2027, with $65 floors and $89.39/$80 ceilings. They do not hedge basis differentials or all production.","August operating/capex guidance is management expectation; Hondo restart and relief of refinery constraints are not marked complete without confirmation. 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volumes differ from production and stored inventory. Exit rates and gross preliminary July/August volumes cannot be treated as quarterly net sales. Gas contribution is excluded consistently with approximately 100% oil guidance.","For unit-safe arithmetic, one million barrels is the quantity reference: $1/bbl corresponds to $1M per reference. Price cells therefore use USD_millions and quantity cells are dimensionless multiples of that reference.","Collars apply only to disclosed volumes: 28,000 b/d in H2 2026 and 25,000 in 2027, with $65 floors and $89.39/$80 ceilings. They do not hedge basis differentials or all production.","August operating/capex guidance is management expectation; Hondo restart and relief of refinery constraints are not marked complete without confirmation. Base Brent $75 is a scenario, not a live quote or futures curve.","July refinancing is subsequent to June cash. Gross financing proceeds largely refinance Exxon debt and fees; the $500M revolver has a zero borrowing base and supplies no modeled liquidity.","Term Loan B quarterly mandatory amortization uses 2.5% of original $675M principal in H2 2026 and 5% in 2027. Interest uses opening modeled principal; actual quarterly timing and the excess-cash-flow sweep can reduce debt and interest sooner.","The 100% excess-cash-flow sweep has contractual adjustments not fully forecast here. Cash before sweep cannot be used as a dividend estimate; no terminal equity valuation or EPS bridge.","August court orders declined shutdown injunctions but imposed $1.449M penalty; California appealed. Regulatory and environmental risks remain event-driven, and downside volumes are a disruption sensitivity, not a legal prediction."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-20","schema_version":"operating_model.v1"}}