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distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The September outlook supports a profitable full year, but H1 earnings cannot be annualized and rising consolidated cash is substantially liability-backed. The model separately tests medical costs, risk-transfer revenue and settlement timing.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track membership and risk-adjusted premiums alongside incurred medical costs; compare parent cash and statutory capital with consolidated cash-flow headlines."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1568651/000156865126000069/oscr-20260630.htm","title":"Q2 financials, CMS liabilities and statutory/parent capital","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1568651/000156865126000066/oscarhealthsecondquarter20.htm","title":"Q2 membership and operating metrics","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1568651/000156865126000074/oscr-20260916.htm","title":"September 16 raised operating-income and MLR outlook","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Average membership, premium pricing and risk-adjustment transfers","Medical cost per member and seasonal utilization","CMS settlement timing, claims float and insurance capital"],"description":"Oscar sells individual health plans and related technology services. Direct premiums are reduced by risk-adjustment transfers and applicable reinsurance; medical costs and administration determine underwriting earnings. CMS settlements, unpaid claims and statutory capital make consolidated cash different from cash accessible to the parent."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-05"},"identity":{"cik":1568651,"sic":"6324","name":"Oscar Health, Inc.","symbol":"OSCR","cluster":"Financials & fintech","exchange":"NYSE"},"research":{"risks":["Risk-adjustment estimates can change materially with market data.","Medical utilization and cost trends may exceed pricing.","Membership retention and public-policy changes affect mix and affordability.","Large CMS and claims settlements limit interpretation of cash balances.","Subsidiary capital cannot automatically be distributed to shareholders."],"title":"Underwriting seasonality and the cash owed to CMS","question":"Can premium pricing cover medical risk while preserving capital after large settlement obligations?","economics":"H1 revenue was $9.527B and operating earnings $1.093B. September 16 guidance raised full-year operating earnings to $600-800M and lowered MLR to 81-82%, while reaffirming revenue $18.7-19.0B. The $700M base operating outcome therefore requires H2 losses of $392.7M. June CMS payables were $6.095B and benefits payable $1.898B. H1 CFO $4.711B included $3.320B net CMS inflow after receivables and $443.1M benefits-payable growth. Removing those movements and $20.6M capex leaves an analytical $927.2M, which is still not distributable parent cash. Parent/noninsurance cash and investments were $462.3M including $9.6M restricted. Insurance capital and surplus were about $1.9B, with estimated $994M above minimum requirements. H1 subsidiary distributions $300M were accompanied by $425.5M parent capital contributions.","change_note":"Added September guidance, member/medical drivers and explicit CMS/claims-float cash comparison.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Updated annual outcome","watch":"Test September guidance against H2 medical seasonality and revised risk adjustment.","timing":"Q3 results; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"CMS settlement","watch":"Separate accrued transfers from actual receivable/payable cash settlements.","timing":"Subsequent cash-flow and balance-sheet filings","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Parent capital access","watch":"Track approved distributions, contributions and remaining note conversion rights.","timing":"Quarterly capital disclosures","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Risk-transfer estimates can reduce premium revenue without reducing the healthcare already provided. Seasonal medical costs, CMS payments and statutory capital needs can absorb much of apparent cash generation.","limitations":["The September 16 Investor Day update supersedes August profit/MLR guidance: operating earnings $600-800M and MLR 81-82%. Revenue $18.7-19.0B and SG&A ratio 15.6-16.1% were reaffirmed.","June effectuated members are an end-period metric, not average member months. The model uses an explicitly assumed average-member activity ratio and calibrated premium/cost realization; it is not a reported actuarial enrollment forecast.","MLR divides medical costs by net premiums before quota-share cession. The forecast retains risk adjustment in that denominator and models non-quota ceded premium separately. It does not deduct deposit-accounted quota-share premiums from GAAP revenue a second time.","H1 profitability is seasonal and cannot be doubled. Midpoint annual operating profit requires a combined H2 operating loss after $1.093B H1 earnings. Forward medical costs are independently budgeted to that seasonal requirement.","CMS risk-adjustment estimates are revised as market data arrives. The model does not forecast each state risk pool, policy change, subsidy regime or settlement cohort. CMS cash-flow assumptions cover net receivables/payables, not only the income-statement risk-transfer line.","Insurance cash and investments back liabilities and statutory capital. Removing net CMS/benefits-payable changes is a timing comparison, not a statutory dividend test or available parent cash calculation.","June parent/noninsurance cash and investments were $462.3M including $9.6M restricted. H1 $300M subsidiary distributions were followed by $425.5M capital contributions, including funding a new Florida insurer. Intragroup transfers are not additional consolidated CFO.","The $35M 2031 note was holder-convertible during Q3 under the disclosed price condition; cash/equity settlement is not forecast. No maturity principal is assumed within the horizon, but optional conversion, award withholding, acquisition/earn-out cash and financing claims remain outside displayed cash measures.","No EPS, diluted valuation, full claims-reserve model or parent liquidity roll-forward. All FY2027 operating and CMS-timing assumptions are desk scenarios."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":4800000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":4522586000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":5525999999.999999},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":5390500000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":0,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances.","operating_model":{"cells":[{"id":"h1_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"H1 revenue","value":9527.414,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1568651/000156865126000069/oscr-20260630.htm","source_date":"2026-08-07"},{"id":"h1_premium","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"H1 premium","value":9370.193,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1568651/000156865126000069/oscr-20260630.htm","source_date":"2026-08-07"},{"id":"h1_medical","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"H1 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September 16 Investor Day update supersedes August profit/MLR guidance: operating earnings $600-800M and MLR 81-82%. Revenue $18.7-19.0B and SG&A ratio 15.6-16.1% were reaffirmed.","June effectuated members are an end-period metric, not average member months. The model uses an explicitly assumed average-member activity ratio and calibrated premium/cost realization; it is not a reported actuarial enrollment forecast.","MLR divides medical costs by net premiums before quota-share cession. The forecast retains risk adjustment in that denominator and models non-quota ceded premium separately. It does not deduct deposit-accounted quota-share premiums from GAAP revenue a second time.","H1 profitability is seasonal and cannot be doubled. Midpoint annual operating profit requires a combined H2 operating loss after $1.093B H1 earnings. Forward medical costs are independently budgeted to that seasonal requirement.","CMS risk-adjustment estimates are revised as market data arrives. The model does not forecast each state risk pool, policy change, subsidy regime or settlement cohort. CMS cash-flow assumptions cover net receivables/payables, not only the income-statement risk-transfer line.","Insurance cash and investments back liabilities and statutory capital. Removing net CMS/benefits-payable changes is a timing comparison, not a statutory dividend test or available parent cash calculation.","June parent/noninsurance cash and investments were $462.3M including $9.6M restricted. H1 $300M subsidiary distributions were followed by $425.5M capital contributions, including funding a new Florida insurer. Intragroup transfers are not additional consolidated CFO.","The $35M 2031 note was holder-convertible during Q3 under the disclosed price condition; cash/equity settlement is not forecast. No maturity principal is assumed within the horizon, but optional conversion, award withholding, acquisition/earn-out cash and financing claims remain outside displayed cash measures.","No EPS, diluted valuation, full claims-reserve model or parent liquidity roll-forward. All FY2027 operating and CMS-timing assumptions are desk scenarios."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19","schema_version":"operating_model.v1"}}