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Reported operating cash flow, continuing operations [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z; filed 2026-02-12] ; Reported cash purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets, continuing operations [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z; filed 2026-02-12]","accession":null,"source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T17:51:59.703422+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"cash":{"value":3678100000.0,"provenance":{"form":"Issuer quarterly release","class":"reported","filed":"2026-02-12","concept":"Reported unrestricted cash and equivalents, continuing operations","accession":null,"source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T17:51:59.703422+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"capex":{"value":2056000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"Issuer quarterly release","class":"reported","filed":"2026-02-12","concept":"Reported cash purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets, continuing operations","accession":null,"source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T17:51:59.703422+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"revenue":{"value":227700000.0,"provenance":{"form":"Issuer quarterly release","class":"reported","filed":"2026-02-12","concept":"Reported consolidated revenue, continuing operations","accession":null,"source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T17:51:59.703422+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"net_income":null,"period_end":"2025-12-31","eps_diluted":null,"fiscal_label":"2025Q4","gross_profit":null,"debt_long_term":{"value":4103200000.0,"provenance":{"form":"Issuer quarterly release","class":"reported","filed":"2026-02-12","concept":"Reported noncurrent debt carrying amount","accession":null,"source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T17:51:59.703422+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"shares_diluted":null,"operating_income":null},{"cfo":{"value":2258000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"fcf":{"value":-214900000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"CFO - capex; H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12] ; H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12]","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"cash":{"value":9298200000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 cash reconciliation: beginning unrestricted cash","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"capex":{"value":2472900000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"revenue":{"value":399000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 revenue 981.3M minus Q2 582.3M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"net_income":{"value":621200000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 net income 430.8M minus Q2 loss -190.4M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"period_end":"2026-03-31","eps_diluted":null,"fiscal_label":"2026Q1","gross_profit":null,"debt_long_term":null,"shares_diluted":null,"operating_income":{"value":-128000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 operating loss -303.9M minus Q2 -175.9M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}}},{"cfo":{"value":2246100000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 cfo","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"fcf":{"value":-3411300000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"CFO - capex; Q2 cfo [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12] ; Q2 capex; capex includes PP&E and intangible assets [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12]","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"cash":{"value":8042100000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 cash","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"capex":{"value":5657400000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 capex; capex includes PP&E and intangible assets","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"revenue":{"value":582300000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 revenue","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"net_income":{"value":-190400000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 net_income","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"period_end":"2026-06-30","eps_diluted":{"value":-0.68,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 diluted net loss per ordinary share","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"fiscal_label":"2026Q2","gross_profit":null,"debt_long_term":{"value":8499000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 debt_long_term","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"shares_diluted":{"value":280381615.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 weighted-average diluted ordinary shares","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}},"operating_income":{"value":-175900000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 operating_income","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00","reviewed_through":null}}}],"retrieved_at":"2026-09-20T18:07:04+00:00"},"notes":[{"url":"https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/nbis-growth-cash-per-share-20260914","slug":"nbis-growth-cash-per-share-20260914","title":"Nebius: The Demand Is Real. What Reaches Each Share?","session":"2026-09-14"}],"memory":{"as_of":"2026-09-18","bands":{"1d":{"p10":-2.753,"p50":0.068,"p90":2.972,"p_up":0.517},"5d":{"p10":-5.26,"p50":0.022,"p90":9.758,"p_up":0.5},"10d":{"p10":-8.491,"p50":0.293,"p90":14.898,"p_up":0.517}},"state":"up/above/off/stuck/ordinary/strong/some","reason":null,"coverage":"ok","analogs_n":300,"disclaimer":"Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Strong AI demand is translating into revenue, but the investment question includes the cost and ownership of the infrastructure that produces it. Q2 revenue was $582.3M versus a $3.0B exit ARR. H1 CFO of $4.504B included $4.395B of net deferred-revenue funding and was below $8.130B cash capex. August financing adds resources and obligations together. The model therefore separates earned revenue, adjusted EBITDA, prepayment-assisted cash flow and capital spending instead of equating ARR or financing proceeds with economic profit.","scenario_ranges":"Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Watch revenue recognized versus ARR, cash generation excluding net deferred-revenue additions, cash capex and funding per unit of deployed capacity. Slower activation, shorter customer commitments or more dilution weaken the case. Improving cash conversion before prepayments and better funding efficiency strengthen it. Separate nominal-strike prefunded claims and the noncash August note exchange from future cash fundraising; verify reported October repricing before assuming higher realized yields."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm","title":"August 12 Form 6-K financial statements and obligations","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","title":"August 12 Q2/H1 results and quarterly cash-flow tables","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a6ecfd85-a6cb-4967-8ef7-9a25bd261f9c/SHLQ226.pdf","title":"August 12 shareholder letter: ARR, prepayments and funding","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/4f7f76ee-aa57-41d9-935b-cac74898469d/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf","title":"May 13 shareholder letter: 2026 revenue and ARR ranges","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-5-75-billion","title":"August 24 convertible closing and debt-for-shares exchange","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/palantir-and-nebius-partner-to-deliver-a-complete-sovereign-ai-stack-to-palantir-customers","title":"September 8 Palantir partnership announcement","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-raises-775-million-in-first-secured-debt-financing-to-accelerate-global-buildout","title":"July 17 signed secured financing; cash draw availability remains separate","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/09/19/nebius-nasdaq-nbis-stock-price-hike-signals-surging-demand-for-ai-compute-capacity/","title":"September 19 secondary report: October repricing unconfirmed by issuer in the report","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z","title":"Original historical accounts: fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a24c0d55-ba23-437c-a6bc-93cc2223cb01/20251111%20Nebius%20reports%20third%20quarter%202025%20financial%20results.pdf?cache-buster=2025-11-11T11:13:59.487Z","title":"Original historical accounts: third-quarter-2025","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/6fc0ea6c-0884-4a1f-bed8-1f797eb9628f/Financial%20results_Q1%202026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-05-13T09:58:57.420Z","title":"Original historical accounts: first-quarter-2026","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/nbis-20251231x20f.htm","title":"Audited 2025 annual accounts; differ from February unaudited profit figures","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-n-v-announces-results-of-its-annual-general-meeting-2026","title":"August AGM: five-year issuance and pre-emption authority; capacity is not completed dilution","retrieved":"2026-09-20"}],"business":{"drivers":["Deployed compute and revenue earned during each quarter","Group cash generation before customer prepayments","Hardware spending, funding terms and per-share ownership"],"description":"Nebius operates an AI cloud that supplies GPU computing and related software to enterprises and AI developers. Revenue grows as funded hardware and data-center capacity become available and customers use or commit to that capacity. Large customer prepayments, debt and equity finance expansion; annualized revenue run rate describes the latest month, while reported revenue measures services earned during the period."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/nbis-growth-cash-per-share-20260914): Append the September 14 closing response once completed data are available","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":1513845,"sic":"7370","name":"Nebius Group N.V.","symbol":"NBIS","cluster":"AI infrastructure & power","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Customer concentration and contract duration affect demand and funding durability.","ARR can grow faster than revenue actually recognized.","Prepayments represent future service obligations, not free recurring cash profit.","GPU replacement, useful lives and financing costs can erode returns.","Converts, prefunded warrants, stock compensation and further equity issuance complicate per-share value.","September reporting describes an unconfirmed October 1 compute-price change. Verify original customer notices, applicable products and realized utilization before translating it into revenue or margins; no repricing uplift is included."],"title":"AI demand, capital deployment and the customer-funding bridge","question":"Can growing AI revenue become durable cash generation before repeated external funding?","economics":"Q2 group revenue was $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, while the GAAP operating loss was $175.9M. June AI cloud exit ARR was $3.0B; it annualizes the final month and is not annual sales. H1 operating cash flow of $4,504.1M falls to $109.1M after removing the $4,395.0M deferred-revenue contribution; that residual is not a normalized-profit claim. Cash PP&E/intangibles totaled $8,130.3M. June cash of $8,042.1M excludes $1,056.0M restricted cash. On August 24, $5.75B gross new converts closed, alongside an $800M debt-for-shares exchange. Those transactions change cash, coupons and ownership differently. The September Palantir partnership has no quantified minimum revenue in its announcement, so it produces no separate modeled uplift.","change_note":"Added conditional funding balances, gross-to-net August financing, a separately gated July facility, debt carrying-value context and dated ownership claims without double-counting prefunded warrants in EPS. Preserved operating forecasts. Unconfirmed October repricing stays a pending checkpoint with no numerical uplift. Expanded historical coverage to eight fiscal quarters; withheld Q4 2025 profit figures pending allocation of audited annual changes.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Year-end ARR and revenue delivery","watch":"Compare $7B-$9B ARR and $3.0B-$3.4B revenue references with actual recognized sales.","timing":"Q4 2026 / full-year results; release date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Customer funding and cash capex","watch":"Reconcile gross prepayments, the net deferred-revenue cash-flow change and actual hardware/construction spending.","timing":"Each quarterly report","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Deployment and new financing","watch":"Compare accepted capacity, cash outlays, coupon burden and new shares before updating any equity-value model.","timing":"Continuing 2026-27 milestones","date_status":"event_driven"},{"event":"Verify reported October compute repricing","watch":"Obtain an original issuer/customer pricing notice and distinguish on-demand GPU/CPU pricing from fixed committed contracts. Pending evidence remains unresolved; change forecasts only when scope and realization are supported.","timing":"Reported October 1, 2026 implementation; issuer confirmation outstanding","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Customer commitments and prepayments can materially reduce the equity needed per deployed GPU, and strong utilization can support attractive cash returns. The contrary risk is that headline EBITDA and ARR rise while depreciation, refresh spending, construction obligations and financing continually absorb the economics. Both outcomes remain plausible; the model exposes the assumptions that separate them.","limitations":["Funding balances are conditional planning arithmetic from June cash, not present cash or a reconciled GAAP balance sheet. Negative balances identify unfilled funding needs. New issuance, early conversion, contingent claims, cash sweeps, acquisitions and minority distributions remain explicit gaps; no fully diluted EPS or equity valuation is claimed.","ARR curves, quarterly activation, cash conversion and capital spending are desk assumptions. The dated company revenue/ARR ranges are shown separately.","Net deferred-revenue changes are not gross customer prepayments. Prepayments finance future service obligations and cannot be treated as recurring cash profit.","Eight quarters have sourced history with explicit gaps. Q4 2025 operating/net income are unavailable: the April 2026 audited annual report differs from the February release, without a reconciled quarterly allocation. Comparative CFO reporting vintages can differ by rounding/reclassification; no cumulative EPS subtraction or invented gross profit.","No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership. Future contract pricing, utilization and GPU refresh economics remain uncertain.","August gross proceeds are reduced by a desk 1.5% fee allowance; $775M signed July facility is excluded pending confirmed draw availability. The $800M exchange retires debt for shares with no modeled cash repayment. June shares plus warrants and August exchange shares are a dated partial bridge, not current fully diluted ownership. August AGM approved five-year authority to issue up to an additional 20% of issued share capital and exclude pre-emption; authorization is not cash raised or shares already issued."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-20"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":851150000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). 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