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Cash Conversion Must Follow.","session":"2026-09-14"}],"memory":{"as_of":"2026-09-21","bands":{"1d":{"n":300,"p10":-2.248,"p50":0.005,"p90":2.624,"p_up":0.5,"censored":null},"5d":{"n":300,"p10":-5.21,"p50":0.184,"p90":6.562,"p_up":0.523,"censored":null},"10d":{"n":300,"p10":-8.184,"p50":0.111,"p90":8.89,"p_up":0.51,"censored":null},"21d":{"n":266,"p10":-13.167,"p50":0.66,"p90":12.215,"p_up":0.526,"censored":0},"63d":{"n":251,"p10":-18.135,"p50":0.732,"p90":27.501,"p_up":0.514,"censored":0},"126d":{"n":227,"p10":-34.178,"p50":-3.201,"p90":34.642,"p_up":0.427,"censored":0},"252d":{"n":206,"p10":-47.895,"p50":-1.807,"p90":49.618,"p_up":0.485,"censored":0}},"state":"up/below/off/stuck/quiet/mid/some","reason":null,"coverage":"ok","analogs_n":300,"disclaimer":"Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Backlog and gross-margin improvement support a larger operating business. The next test is conversion into cash after manufacturing investment and the fixed cash earnout, without confusing noncash valuation charges or installment receivables with current cash.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track product-level acceptance, opening-backlog delivery, working capital and the January cash/share settlement separately."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889971/000143774926030106/lpth20260630_10k.htm","title":"FY2026 accounts, product groups and cash/share earnout terms","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889971/000143774926030074/ex_922995.htm","title":"Q4 results, backlog and adjusted EBITDA reconciliation","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889971/000143774926024234/lpth20260722_8k.htm","title":"Signed China disposal and installment terms","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Qualified infrared and assembly/module demand","Product mix, yield and conversion of scheduled backlog","Cash earnout settlement, capacity spending and disposal installments"],"description":"LightPath supplies optical materials, infrared and visible components, assemblies and imaging modules. Acquired camera and glass operations broaden its product mix. Customer qualification, backlog conversion and manufacturing yield drive earnings, while earnouts and the planned China disposal affect cash and ownership."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/lpth-defense-orders-cash-20260914): Append the actual September 14 close after the session finishes","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":889971,"sic":"3674","name":"LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC","symbol":"LPTH","cluster":"Transport, industrials & defense","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Defense and commercial program concentration and acceptance timing.","Manufacturing yield, glass capacity and product mix.","Earnout cash, contingent shares and preferred dilution.","Disposal approval, installment collection and transition terms.","Inventory funding and capacity investment can outpace receipts."],"title":"Converting optics demand after the earnout and manufacturing bill","question":"Can infrared substitution and camera demand convert into cash after capacity and acquisition claims?","economics":"FY2026 sales were $71.7M with adjusted EBITDA $4.2M. Revenue includes acquisitions and is not entirely organic growth. June backlog was $110.9M, with $85.6M scheduled for twelve-month delivery. CFO was negative $10.225M, including $3.814M G5 earnout cash; another $3.536M was classified in financing. Removing the operating portion before deducting total earnouts avoids double-counting the cash claim. January 2027 fixed G5 consideration is $6.3M cash plus $2.7M common stock. June cash was $93.2M following equity raises, with remaining Series G preferred carrying value $8.9M. The signed China disposal has $4.5M consideration payable over up to five years, with a $0.5M annual minimum, so announced price is not upfront cash.","change_note":"Added four-product model, earnout classification bridge and conditional disposal installment cash.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Backlog conversion","watch":"Compare recognized deliveries with the $85.6M scheduled cohort and new-order requirements.","timing":"Each fiscal 2027 quarter","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"G5 settlement","watch":"Confirm $6.3M cash and $2.7M shares without charging the $9M liability twice.","timing":"January 1-15, 2027 contractual window","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"China disposal","watch":"Verify actual completion, lost revenue, retained rights and principal received.","timing":"Closing and annual installment disclosures","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Backlog can slip through qualification and acceptance, while inventory and capital needs rise. More assembly revenue does not guarantee margin, and earnout, preferred and stock-settlement claims can absorb gains that adjusted EBITDA alone appears to deliver.","limitations":["Backlog $110.9M includes $85.6M scheduled within twelve months. Scheduled delivery is not guaranteed acceptance or cash; cases vary conversion and require additional orders for revenue above opening backlog recognition.","G5 and Amorphous acquisitions change the perimeter, so the 92.7% reported annual revenue growth is not asserted to be organic. Product-group history has been reclassified for comparability; future mixed-product margins are desk assumptions.","FY2026 CFO includes $3.814M operating-classified G5 earnout cash, while another $3.536M appears in financing. The analytical pre-earnout cash measure adds back only the operating portion, then deducts the total cash claim once.","The January 1-15, 2027 agreed G5 payment is $9M total: $6.3M cash and $2.7M common stock. The model charges only the cash amount. Noncash fair-value remeasurement of earnouts is not another cash settlement.","Amorphous was purchased for $7M cash plus contingent stock consideration up to $3M. Stock payouts and remaining Series G preferred claims affect ownership even without current cash use; no fully diluted EPS estimate is provided.","The signed China disposal is not assumed already closed. $4.5M consideration is payable over up to five years with a $0.5M annual minimum, plus specified financing interest. Base assumes a later closing and only an annual installment, not $4.5M cash upfront.","Visible-product revenue reductions after the assumed disposal and future licensing/transition economics are desk sensitivities; no gain-on-sale amount is projected without closing accounting.","Cash after selected claims includes PP&E, cash earnouts and asset-sale principal, but excludes new acquisitions, debt/lease principal, preferred settlement and equity financing. It is not GAAP CFO, a closing balance or owner-distributable cash.","Germanium-free material substitution, program design-in and approved supplier status require customer acceptance. Backlog, qualification and addressable-market figures do not establish new cash receipts or guaranteed margins."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":24000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":26400000.000000004},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q3","revenue":29000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q4","revenue":32100000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":1,"notes_scored":1,"band_coverage_5d":1.0},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances.","operating_model":{"cells":[{"id":"fy26_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions; current-period gain/loss on earnout fair value is different from cash earnout payment.","label":"revenue","value":71.722099,"period":"FY2026 / June 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889971/000143774926030106/lpth20260630_10k.htm","source_date":"2026-09-11"},{"id":"fy26_infrared","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions; current-period gain/loss on earnout fair value is different from cash earnout payment.","label":"infrared","value":21.196156,"period":"FY2026 / June 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889971/000143774926030106/lpth20260630_10k.htm","source_date":"2026-09-11"},{"id":"fy26_visible","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD 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Scheduled delivery is not guaranteed acceptance or cash; cases vary conversion and require additional orders for revenue above opening backlog recognition.","G5 and Amorphous acquisitions change the perimeter, so the 92.7% reported annual revenue growth is not asserted to be organic. Product-group history has been reclassified for comparability; future mixed-product margins are desk assumptions.","FY2026 CFO includes $3.814M operating-classified G5 earnout cash, while another $3.536M appears in financing. The analytical pre-earnout cash measure adds back only the operating portion, then deducts the total cash claim once.","The January 1-15, 2027 agreed G5 payment is $9M total: $6.3M cash and $2.7M common stock. The model charges only the cash amount. Noncash fair-value remeasurement of earnouts is not another cash settlement.","Amorphous was purchased for $7M cash plus contingent stock consideration up to $3M. Stock payouts and remaining Series G preferred claims affect ownership even without current cash use; no fully diluted EPS estimate is provided.","The signed China disposal is not assumed already closed. $4.5M consideration is payable over up to five years with a $0.5M annual minimum, plus specified financing interest. Base assumes a later closing and only an annual installment, not $4.5M cash upfront.","Visible-product revenue reductions after the assumed disposal and future licensing/transition economics are desk sensitivities; no gain-on-sale amount is projected without closing accounting.","Cash after selected claims includes PP&E, cash earnouts and asset-sale principal, but excludes new acquisitions, debt/lease principal, preferred settlement and equity financing. It is not GAAP CFO, a closing balance or owner-distributable cash.","Germanium-free material substitution, program design-in and approved supplier status require customer acceptance. 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