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Hunt: A Conference Remark Erases a Quarter of Beats in One Pre-Market Print","session":"2026-09-16"}],"memory":{"as_of":"2026-09-18","bands":{"1d":{"p10":-2.735,"p50":0.142,"p90":2.667,"p_up":0.543},"5d":{"p10":-5.327,"p50":0.111,"p90":5.246,"p_up":0.522},"10d":{"p10":-6.88,"p50":0.036,"p90":7.715,"p_up":0.508}},"state":"up/below/off/stuck/effort/weak/alone","reason":null,"coverage":"ok","analogs_n":300,"disclaimer":"Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The September 16 repricing is of the second-half earnings path, not of the balance sheet or the franchise. A 5-10% sequential decline from the $1.91 second quarter puts third-quarter EPS near $1.72-1.81, still flat to up 3% on the year-earlier $1.76. What changed is the slope: the second-quarter beat had priced acceleration, and management reset that before the quarter closed. The reason reported after the open, diesel near $6 against $3.70 a year ago plus driver costs, is a cost shock rather than a demand break, and fuel surcharge recovers diesel with a lag rather than not at all. Conference remarks are not guidance; the exact wording and the earnings measure referred to were second-hand when the note was written, and that is the open item. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 15 close was -5.7 to +4.4 points of excess return; the completed September 16 session, -12.9 points against the market, was below the 1-day band.","scenario_ranges":null,"what_changes_it":"The Laguna webcast wording showing a demand-driven deterioration (volume or price) rather than cost or timing; or the October third-quarter report showing EPS below $1.72 with intermodal operating income falling year over year. In the other direction: the five-session window retracing most of the drop and the October report at or above $1.76 with intermodal margins intact."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/61810772/watching-j-b-hunt-cfo-said-morgan-stanley-conference-late-yesterday-q3-earnings-may-fall-5-10-qoq-du","title":"Benzinga wire via ChartLibrary news store: 'Watching J.B. Hunt; CFO said at a Morgan Stanley conference late yesterday that Q3 earnings may fall by 5%-10% QoQ'","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://investor.jbhunt.com/events-and-presentations","title":"J.B. Hunt investor events page: Morgan Stanley 14th Annual Laguna Conference, September 15, 2026, 5:20 PM CDT, with webcast link","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/728535/000143774926023629/ex_987956.htm","title":"J.B. Hunt second quarter 2026 results, press release dated July 15, 2026 (8-K exhibit 99.1)","retrieved":"2026-07-15"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/728535/000143774926024397/jbht20260630_10q.htm","title":"J.B. Hunt Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 24, 2026","retrieved":"2026-07-24"},{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK0000728535/us-gaap/EarningsPerShareDiluted.json","title":"SEC XBRL company concept, J.B. Hunt diluted earnings per share by quarter","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/JBHT?range=1d&interval=1m&includePrePost=true","title":"Yahoo Finance JBHT chart, one-minute bars including pre-market, September 16, 2026","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/JBHT?range=5d&interval=1d","title":"Yahoo Finance JBHT daily bars","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://chartlibrary.io/api/v1/state-packet?symbol=JBHT&date=2026-09-15","title":"ChartLibrary state packet, JBHT as of the September 15, 2026 close","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://chartlibrary.io/research/casebook","title":"Alphaforge attention capture, September 16, 2026 07:15 ET (Stocktwits and Yahoo trending lists)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/26/09/61821710/quick-spark-6-diesel-triggers-jb-hunt-stocks-worst-day-since-march-2020","title":"Benzinga: 'QUICK SPARK: $6 Diesel Triggers JB Hunt Stock's Worst Day Since March 2020' (wire, 12:20 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/guidance/26/09/61819951/jb-hunt-stock-sinks-as-rising-driver-and-fuel-costs-hit-q3-outlook","title":"Benzinga: 'JB Hunt Stock Sinks As Rising Driver and Fuel Costs Hit Q3 Outlook' (wire, 11:27 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/61821884/union-pacific-cfo-says-morgan-stanley-conference-diesel-costs-have-risen-about-5-25-5-30-gallon-expe","title":"Benzinga: Union Pacific CFO at the Morgan Stanley conference: diesel costs have risen to about $5.25-5.30 a gallon (wire, 12:27 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/61815532/b-securities-maintains-buy-jb-hunt-transport-servs-lowers-price-target-302","title":"Benzinga: B of A Securities maintains analyst stance on J.B. Hunt, lowers 12-month objective to $302 from $340 (wire, 09:46 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/61813931/barclays-maintains-equal-weight-jb-hunt-transport-servs-lowers-price-target-285","title":"Benzinga: Barclays maintains Equal-Weight on J.B. Hunt, lowers 12-month objective to $285 from $300 (wire, 09:05 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/09/61813278/wells-fargo-maintains-overweight-jb-hunt-transport-servs-lowers-price-target-305","title":"Benzinga: Wells Fargo maintains analyst stance on J.B. Hunt, lowers 12-month objective to $305 from $335 (wire, 08:45 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"},{"url":"https://www.benzinga.com/wiim/26/09/61816851/shares-logistics-and-freight-related-companies-are-trading-lower-amid-sympathy-j-b-hunt-after-compan","title":"Benzinga: logistics and freight names trading lower in sympathy with J.B. Hunt (wire, 10:13 ET)","retrieved":"2026-09-16"}],"business":{"drivers":["Intermodal margin slope: loads, revenue per load and Eastern-network growth against the productivity, cost removal and volume the Q2 release credited.","Cost shocks with lagged recovery: diesel near $6 a gallon against about $3.70 a year earlier, plus driver costs, recovered through fuel surcharge with a lag.","The sequential earnings path: the CFO's September remark that Q3 earnings may fall 5-10% from Q2 broke two years of sequential third-quarter gains."],"description":"J.B. Hunt Transport Services is a North American surface transportation company. Its largest segment is intermodal, moving containers on rail with truck drayage at each end and sold against constrained trucking capacity; the rest is dedicated contract fleets, integrated capacity solutions (brokerage), final mile and truckload. Revenue includes a fuel surcharge that recovers diesel with a lag. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $3.50 billion, up 19% (11% excluding fuel surcharge), operating income rose 32% to $259.5 million, and intermodal operating income rose 58% to $150.9 million on 10% load growth and 11% gross revenue per load, with Eastern-network loads up 16%. The company bought back $177.8 million of stock in the first half of 2026 and expects $600-800 million of net capital expenditure for the year."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/jbht-conference-guide-down-expectations-20260916): verify the Laguna webcast wording; third-quarter results expected mid-October (the second quarter was reported July 15)","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":728535,"sic":"4213","name":"J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.","symbol":"JBHT","cluster":"Transport, industrials & defense","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"estimates":{"rows":[],"basis":"not yet estimated","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":1,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances."}