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Hunt: A Conference Remark Erases a Quarter of Beats in One Pre-Market Print","session":"2026-09-16"}],"memory":{"as_of":"2026-09-17","bands":{"1d":{"p10":-2.017,"p50":0.13,"p90":2.24,"p_up":0.51},"5d":{"p10":-5.168,"p50":-0.115,"p90":5.385,"p_up":0.48},"10d":{"p10":-8.018,"p50":0.019,"p90":7.927,"p_up":0.505}},"state":"up/below/off/stuck/ordinary/weak/some","reason":null,"coverage":"ok","analogs_n":300,"disclaimer":"Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The September 16 repricing is of the second-half earnings path, not of the balance sheet or the franchise. A 5-10% sequential decline from the $1.91 second quarter puts third-quarter EPS near $1.72-1.81, still flat to up 3% on the year-earlier $1.76. What changed is the slope: the second-quarter beat had priced acceleration, and management reset that before the quarter closed. The reason reported after the open, diesel near $6 against $3.70 a year ago plus driver costs, is a cost shock rather than a demand break, and fuel surcharge recovers diesel with a lag rather than not at all. Conference remarks are not guidance; the exact wording and the earnings measure referred to were second-hand when the note was written, and that is the open item. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 15 close was -5.7 to +4.4 points of excess return; the completed September 16 session, -12.9 points against the market, was below the 1-day band.","scenario_ranges":null,"what_changes_it":"The Laguna webcast wording showing a demand-driven deterioration (volume or price) rather than cost or timing; or the October third-quarter report showing EPS below $1.72 with intermodal operating income falling year over year. In the other direction: the five-session window retracing most of the drop and the October report at or above $1.76 with intermodal margins intact."},"no_side":true,"business":{"drivers":["Intermodal margin slope: loads, revenue per load and Eastern-network growth against the productivity, cost removal and volume the Q2 release credited.","Cost shocks with lagged recovery: diesel near $6 a gallon against about $3.70 a year earlier, plus driver costs, recovered through fuel surcharge with a lag.","The sequential earnings path: the CFO's September remark that Q3 earnings may fall 5-10% from Q2 broke two years of sequential third-quarter gains."],"description":"J.B. Hunt Transport Services is a North American surface transportation company. Its largest segment is intermodal, moving containers on rail with truck drayage at each end and sold against constrained trucking capacity; the rest is dedicated contract fleets, integrated capacity solutions (brokerage), final mile and truckload. Revenue includes a fuel surcharge that recovers diesel with a lag. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $3.50 billion, up 19% (11% excluding fuel surcharge), operating income rose 32% to $259.5 million, and intermodal operating income rose 58% to $150.9 million on 10% load growth and 11% gross revenue per load, with Eastern-network loads up 16%. The company bought back $177.8 million of stock in the first half of 2026 and expects $600-800 million of net capital expenditure for the year."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/jbht-conference-guide-down-expectations-20260916): verify the Laguna webcast wording; third-quarter results expected mid-October (the second quarter was reported July 15)","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":728535,"sic":"4213","name":"J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.","symbol":"JBHT","cluster":"Transport, industrials & defense","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"estimates":{"rows":[],"basis":"not yet estimated","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":1,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances."}