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Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The order book and new capacity support substantial growth, but the quality of that growth depends on margin and cash conversion. Customer advances and offering headlines must be separated from cash earned for public shareholders.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Compare sequential backlog conversion with production margins, gross working-capital use, capex and ownership-related cash claims."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000035/fps-20260630.htm","title":"FY2026 consolidated accounts, offerings, debt and TRA","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm","title":"September FY2027 guidance, Q4 results and expansion","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000011/fps-20251231.htm","title":"Comparative six-month accounts used for Q1 reconstruction","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000018/fps-20260331.htm","title":"Comparative nine-month accounts and cash flows","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Custom and modular-powertrain backlog conversion","Factory utilization, input cost and working-capital funding","TRA payments, minority ownership and expansion cash"],"description":"Forgent manufactures electrical distribution equipment for data centers, grids and industrial facilities. Custom products and modular powertrain solutions convert orders into recognized progress and delivered equipment. Manufacturing capacity, customer advances and the Up-C ownership structure shape cash available after expansion."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/fps-backlog-conversion-sponsor-supply-20260915): First: today's completed session, September 15, the first observation after the release; we will record the close, volume and the open-to-close move separately from the overnight","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":2080126,"sic":"3620","name":"Forgent Power Solutions, Inc.","symbol":"FPS","cluster":"AI infrastructure & power","exchange":"NYSE"},"research":{"risks":["Data-center customer concentration and order timing.","Manufacturing ramp, commodity cost and tariff exposure.","Customer advances may reverse while working capital grows.","Tax receivable and non-controlling-owner cash claims.","Nameplate capacity and adjusted earnings can overstate near-term cash capacity."],"title":"Backlog growth through the factory and ownership cash waterfall","question":"Can record electrical-equipment orders convert into profitable production and cash after expansion and outside-owner claims?","economics":"FY2026 revenue was $1.420B and adjusted EBITDA $322.9M. CFO $109.1M included $153.0M customer-advance inflow, while cash PP&E $115.9M left negative $6.8M FCF. Q4 revenue $461.7M and EBITDA $112.7M accompanied $3.0B rounded backlog. September FY2027 guidance targets $2.4-2.6B revenue and $575-625M EBITDA, with about $87M capex. The $35M additional powertrain expansion targets Q4 FY2027 availability and raises nameplate revenue capacity to about $5.8B. June cash was $97.5M plus $24.2M restricted. The $1.525B combined IPO/follow-on net-underwriting proceeds were offset by purchases of existing owners' Opco interests. TRA liability was $338.9M under an 85% tax-benefit sharing arrangement.","change_note":"Added backlog conversion, secondary-offering offsets, TRA sensitivities and corrected fiscal history.","checkpoints":[{"event":"FY2027 sequential ramp","watch":"Compare expected sequential revenue and margin improvement with factory and backlog conversion.","timing":"Q1 results; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Powertrain expansion","watch":"Verify commissioning of incremental $35M investment and actual utilized capacity.","timing":"Q4 FY2027 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Cash and ownership","watch":"Track gross working capital, customer advances, TRA cash and outside-owner distributions.","timing":"Each quarterly filing","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Orders can move or cancel, and rising inventory and receivables can exceed customer funding. Headline EBITDA excludes real cash costs while TRA payments and outside-owner distributions further separate consolidated performance from public-owner cash.","limitations":["Backlog is rounded, cancellable order value and is not cash or guaranteed revenue. Capacity of about $5.8B after the planned expansion is not a sales forecast; base revenue is well below nameplate capacity.","Much custom work uses over-time recognition. Forecast segment realization represents accepted progress/revenue, not necessarily physical units shipped. Quarterly margin and booking allocation are desk assumptions; management expects sequential growth.","Customer advances improve current CFO while creating performance obligations. Future cash collection depends on milestone billing, inventory, contract assets and acceptance. A change in advances is not an incremental sale.","Adjusted EBITDA excludes public-company readiness, sponsor, earnout and integration expenses. Historical reconciliation identifies these; forecasts separately charge remaining cash adjustments, SBC and D&A. Other nonoperating expense creates a small historical bridge residual.","The February IPO and later offering cash was used to purchase existing owners' Opco interests. Gross equity proceeds do not establish net new operating liquidity. June cash is separate from restricted cash held for distributions/taxes.","The Up-C structure has non-controlling Opco owners and an 85% tax-benefit sharing agreement. TRA liability $338.925M is not paid in one quarter; modeled TRA and outside-owner distributions are cash sensitivities, not a contractual schedule.","Eight quarterly income histories are reconstructed from filed six/nine-month and annual statements where possible. Missing early-quarter cash-flow and balance facts remain unknown. Labels follow the June fiscal year, including comparative periods.","No parent ownership, tax-allocation, full debt amortization or diluted EPS bridge. Cash after claims excludes discretionary buybacks, acquisition payments and debt principal; it is not distributable public-shareholder cash."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":480000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":560000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q3","revenue":670000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q4","revenue":790000000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":1,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances.","operating_model":{"cells":[{"id":"fy26_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. 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Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases.","label":"FY2026 adj ebitda","value":322.904,"period":"FY2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm","source_date":"2026-09-15"},{"id":"fy26_operating_income","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases.","label":"FY2026 operating income","value":182.489,"period":"FY2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm","source_date":"2026-09-15"},{"id":"fy26_cfo","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions; consolidated amounts except explicitly public-attributable income. 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Offering proceeds used for existing Opco ownership purchases.","label":"FY2026 outside distributions","value":8.588,"period":"FY2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2080126/000208012626000034/exhibit991earningsrelease_.htm","source_date":"2026-09-15"},{"id":"fy26_fcf","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"No credit for equity proceeds paid to selling owners.","label":"FY2026 CFO less PP&E","value":-6.823999999999998,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"subtract","refs":["fy26_cfo","fy26_capex"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"fy26_adjustments","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Company adjusted reconciliation.","label":"D&A SBC and adjusted cash-cost exclusions","value":141.16400000000002,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"sum","refs":["fy26_da","fy26_sbc","fy26_sponsor","fy26_readiness","fy26_earnout","fy26_integration"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"fy26_after_adjustments","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Before nonoperating residual.","label":"EBITDA after disclosed exclusions","value":181.73999999999998,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"subtract","refs":["fy26_adj_ebitda","fy26_adjustments"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"fy26_gaap_bridge","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Other expense was included in EBITDA starting from consolidated net income.","label":"FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to operating income","value":182.48899999999998,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"sum","refs":["fy26_after_adjustments","fy26_other_expense"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"gross_offering_cash","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Receipts are offset by seller payments.","label":"Net-of-underwriting offering receipts","value":1524.9640000000002,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"sum","refs":["fy26_ipo_proceeds","fy26_secondary_proceeds"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"net_offering_cash","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Zero before additional deferred offering costs.","label":"Net offering cash after Opco purchases","value":2.2737367544323206e-13,"period":"FY2026","formula":{"op":"subtract","refs":["gross_offering_cash","fy26_opco_purchase_cash"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"cash","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Backlog rounded to $3B; debt principal differs from carrying value. 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is rounded, cancellable order value and is not cash or guaranteed revenue. Capacity of about $5.8B after the planned expansion is not a sales forecast; base revenue is well below nameplate capacity.","Much custom work uses over-time recognition. Forecast segment realization represents accepted progress/revenue, not necessarily physical units shipped. Quarterly margin and booking allocation are desk assumptions; management expects sequential growth.","Customer advances improve current CFO while creating performance obligations. Future cash collection depends on milestone billing, inventory, contract assets and acceptance. A change in advances is not an incremental sale.","Adjusted EBITDA excludes public-company readiness, sponsor, earnout and integration expenses. Historical reconciliation identifies these; forecasts separately charge remaining cash adjustments, SBC and D&A. Other nonoperating expense creates a small historical bridge residual.","The February IPO and later offering cash was used to purchase existing owners' Opco interests. 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