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Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"The useful underwriting question is whether the existing contracted projects start rent on schedule and retain enough cash after financing. The company schedule rises from $97M HPC NOI in 2026 to $686M in 2027, but these are property economics, not parent free cash flow. A large restricted cash balance finances a large construction obligation. Successful delivery can change the earnings mix quickly; it does not automatically remove the need for disciplined financing. September power-access developments add options, subject to regulatory conditions and funding, rather than new contracted rent in this model.","scenario_ranges":"Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track rent commencement, construction cash and unrestricted cash. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI on schedule strengthen it. Verify the grid audit, power rights and gas-lateral cash obligations. Reconcile restricted-fund releases with construction, principal and any Google warrant settlement before reading NOI as owner cash. The September 24 amendment moves Barber Lake rent to Q4 2026 and adds a ten-year follow-on lease; verify the amended rent schedule before changing lease cells."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000041/cifr-20260630.htm","title":"August 4 Form 10-Q: cash, Bitcoin proceeds and debt","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-provides-second-quarter-2026-business-update","title":"August 4 Q2 results and project delivery update","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://investors.cipherdigital.com/static-files/a95634e3-43c8-49b4-ba07-c317ea37355e","title":"August 4 presentation: contracted NOI schedule and funding","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-begins-development-lateral-pipelines-facilitate","title":"September 3 gas-lateral development plan; capacity is prospective","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-fluidstack-and-anthropic-commit-10-million-repair","title":"September 14 joint water commitment; company allocation undisclosed","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://x.com/CipherInc/status/2099954708446064826","title":"September 15 official company site-by-site conditional grid designations; authenticated X read","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/M-A080326-04","title":"September 3 ERCOT notice: conditions can disqualify provisional Batch Zero loads","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000043/cifr-20260924.htm","title":"September 25 Form 8-K: Barber Lake lease amendment and binding follow-on tenant commitment","retrieved":"2026-09-28"}],"business":{"drivers":["Contracted capacity delivered and accepted on time","Property NOI retained after overhead and financing","Construction spending, restricted cash and debt service"],"description":"Cipher Digital is converting a Bitcoin-mining platform into a developer and owner of HPC data centers. Long leases can produce recurring property income, but revenue starts only after tenant delivery and acceptance. Mining remains a smaller source of cash while construction, project debt and restricted reserves dominate the funding picture."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-04 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-02"},"identity":{"cik":1819989,"sic":"6199","name":"Cipher Digital Inc.","symbol":"CIFR","cluster":"AI infrastructure & power","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Delayed acceptance shifts rent while debt costs continue.","Restricted project cash cannot be treated as free parent liquidity.","Property NOI omits overhead, debt service and ongoing capital needs.","Mining cash depends on Bitcoin prices, difficulty and power costs.","Future projects can require new equity or debt; no dilution forecast is complete.","The September grid designations remain conditional: 1.1 GW base load and 2.1 GW studied load are not blanket energization approvals. Failure to satisfy verification or modeling conditions can remove projects from Batch Zero.","New gas-lateral spending and community contributions may use cash beyond the contracted-project capex assumptions; company-specific amounts and payment timing were not disclosed.","Google warrant protection can require additional shares or cash if its contractual minimum value is not met before exercise begins. June excluded convertible/award shares are potential claims, not a completed forward EPS denominator."],"title":"From contracted HPC capacity to cash retained","question":"How much of the contracted property NOI survives construction spending and financing?","economics":"The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately. September developments concern future power access and spending: conditional grid classifications and gas laterals do not establish new rent or tenant acceptance. The existing contracted-project scenarios remain the numerical base. On September 24 (filed September 25) Cipher amended the Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake and secured a binding commitment for a ten-year extension lease with an AI lab, extending the aggregate contracted term for the facility to twenty years, with modified phased delivery in Q4 2026 through Q1 2027 and rent commencement starting in Q4 2026. The company puts incremental contracted revenue from the extension at $5.2B over its term, and the amendment sets a $359.3M cost threshold above which the tenant reimburses 50% of overages. Contracted term and reimbursement rights are not delivered capacity or received rent; the model's Barber Lake cells still follow the original lease schedule until the amended rent schedule is disclosed.","change_note":"September 28 review: recorded the September 24 Barber Lake lease amendment (phased delivery Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, rent from Q4 2026) and the binding ten-year follow-on tenant commitment as checkpoints, with a limitation that the amended schedule, the $5.2B contracted figure and the cost-sharing threshold are not yet in the cells. No forecast cell changed.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Barber Lake rent commencement and follow-on tenant","watch":"Confirm tenant acceptance, first billed rent and remaining delivery obligations under the amended phases, and obtain the amended rent schedule before changing the original lease cells. For the follow-on commitment, identify the tenant, the executed lease and its rent, any conditions on the $5.2B incremental contracted revenue, and construction cost against the $359.3M threshold with 50% tenant reimbursement above it. Contracted term is not delivered capacity.","timing":"Rent from Q4 2026 under the September 24 amendment; phased delivery Q4 2026 through Q1 2027; ten-year extension after the amended Fluidstack term","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Stingray delivery","watch":"Track construction cash used and contracted delivery conditions.","timing":"First half of 2027 company target","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Next quarterly cash reconciliation","watch":"Separate unrestricted cash, restricted balances, project capex and principal repayments.","timing":"Next results; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"ERCOT conditional classifications and audit","watch":"Verify final conditions and site status. Cipher lists Stingray 100 MW and Colchis 1 GW as conditional base load; Mikeska 500 MW, Apollo 900 MW, Stingray II 200 MW and McLennan 500 MW as conditional studied load. The first three studied sites are PCLR-qualified; do not equate that with firm unrestricted power.","timing":"December 2026 company update expectation; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Gas laterals and incremental funding","watch":"Track pipeline cost, funding responsibilities, power-provider agreements, permits and commissioning before adding revenue. The September 3 plan supports up to 2.5 GW of prospective generation, not installed capacity.","timing":"New power before end-2027 company objective; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Colorado City water contribution","watch":"Determine Cipher's portion and timing of the combined $10M commitment with Fluidstack and Anthropic. Barber Lake uses its own on-site supply. Do not assign the whole joint commitment to Cipher or assume it has already been paid.","timing":"Committed September 14, 2026; cash-payment schedule unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Contracted demand and tenant credit support reduce demand uncertainty but do not eliminate construction execution, payment conditions or parent financing risk. Power options and land can remain uneconomic if incremental funding costs or build costs exceed the eventual lease return. Conditional grid treatment can change after verification; planned gas supply does not establish generation completion, firm power availability or signed tenant revenue.","limitations":["Funding balances are conditional planning arithmetic from June cash, not present cash or a reconciled GAAP balance sheet. Negative balances identify unfilled funding needs. New issuance, early conversion, contingent claims, cash sweeps, acquisitions and minority distributions remain explicit gaps; no fully diluted EPS or equity valuation is claimed.","HPC NOI is a company non-GAAP property measure. Converting NOI to revenue requires an assumed property margin; lease-accounting revenue, escalators and reimbursements are not reconstructed.","Coupon expense is spread evenly for economic comparison. Actual payment dates, interest income, debt amortization, reserves and restricted-project cash waterfalls are not fully modeled.","Pipeline power, the Apollo option and unsigned Odessa HPC reuse generate no forecast rent. Historical SEC gross-profit and debt mappings are incomplete.","September gas-lateral development and the shared $10M water commitment are disclosed, but Cipher-specific incremental costs and payment timing are unquantified. They are not separately forecast; contracted-project cash-after-capex can overstate retained cash if these add spending. Conditional pipeline capacity remains outside forecast rent.","CIFR releases only modeled eligible current restricted project funds; noncurrent reserves remain unavailable. Coupon burden is an even economic accrual and 2027 principal timing is a planning allocation, so funding balances are not bank-account forecasts. Additional Google cash/share protection and minority claims are not assigned invented settlements.","The September 24 Barber Lake amendment and the binding ten-year follow-on commitment (aggregate contracted term twenty years, $5.2B incremental contracted revenue stated by the company, $359.3M cost threshold with 50% tenant reimbursement above it) are disclosed but not yet in the operating-model cells. Barber Lake rent, delivery timing and construction cash remain at the September 20 calibration on the original lease schedule; the extension's rent begins after the amended Fluidstack term and is not near-term cash."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-28"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":33459222.222222224},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":123992555.55555557},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). 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