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distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Growing member activity and platform adoption are improving earnings, but lending losses, funding and the proposed bank purchase determine the cash retained for shareholders.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track member/payment activity, MyPay and Instant Loan losses, loan investment and the regulatory closing path."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795586/000179558626000048/chym-20260630.htm","title":"H1 cash, revenue, transaction losses and loan investment","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795586/000179558626000046/ex991q226.htm","title":"Q2 member/payment metrics and reconciliations","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795586/000119312526385383/d948605dex991.htm","title":"September 8 Stride acquisition and superseding guidance","retrieved":"2026-09-20"}],"business":{"drivers":["Member purchase volume, card mix and payment yield","Platform monetization after credit and dispute losses","Loan funding, corporate cash and conditional bank acquisition"],"description":"Chime provides payments, liquidity, credit and related financial services through its consumer platform and partner banks. Interchange, transfer fees and lending-related services monetize member activity. Its proposed Stride Bank acquisition would add a regulated bank subsidiary, subject to approvals."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-04"},"identity":{"cik":1795586,"sic":"6199","name":"Chime Financial, Inc.","symbol":"CHYM","cluster":"Financials & fintech","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Credit, fraud and transaction dispute losses.","Member acquisition cost and payment yield.","Bank-partner concentration and network rules.","Stride regulatory approval, integration and bank capital.","SBC and buybacks obscure the per-share cash bridge."],"title":"Member economics and cash before becoming a bank owner","question":"Can Chime grow member profitability while funding lending and the proposed Stride acquisition?","economics":"Q2 revenue was $669.8M, including $430.0M payments and $239.7M platform revenue. Transaction profit was $491.6M and adjusted EBITDA $101.6M. Active Members reached 10.4M; purchase volume was $38B and MyPay originations $4.5B with a 0.9% loss rate. H1 CFO $295.0M falls to $223.7M after $53.9M net loan purchases and $17.4M PP&E/software cash, before $222.1M buybacks. September 8 superseding guidance raises Q3 revenue to $705M and FY2026 revenue/EBITDA to $2.76-2.77B/$481-489M. The proposed $590M cash purchase of Stride targets H1 2027 closing; expected net synergies above $100M are not current profit.","change_note":"Includes September Stride agreement and raised guidance; adds loan-investment and conditional cash-price bridge.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Q3 revised guidance","watch":"Use September $705M revenue/$117-120M EBITDA outlook, not superseded August ranges.","timing":"Next results; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Stride approval and closing","watch":"Confirm regulatory approvals, final consideration and required capital before consolidating the bank.","timing":"H1 2027 company expectation","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Lending cash and loss performance","watch":"Track origination versus revenue, credit/dispute losses, net loan purchases and collateral.","timing":"Each quarterly filing","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Faster credit growth may increase loss and funding needs before member economics mature. Regulatory delay or additional bank capital requirements could reduce acquisition benefits and cash flexibility.","limitations":["September 8 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance supersedes August earnings guidance. Base Q3 revenue $705M, EBITDA $118.5M and FY2026 revenue $2.765B/EBITDA $485M are calibrated to that update.","Platform revenue and risk-loss decomposition are desk assumptions. Reported ARPAM is annualized and cannot be multiplied by closing members as if all were present for the whole quarter.","MyPay origination volume is not revenue or owned loan assets. The model separately estimates expected losses; historical noncash product-obligation fair-value adjustments are not treated as recurring new cash earnings.","CFO excludes loan purchases net of repayments classified in investing. Cash after funding also deducts that loan investment and both purchased and internally developed software.","Chime remains a fintech using bank partners pending closing. Member deposits at partners and restricted cash are not Chime corporate cash. Stride would require a bank-specific balance-sheet and capital model after completion.","The $590M Stride acquisition is conditional on regulatory approvals, with H1 2027 expected closing. Quarter placement is a timing sensitivity. No acquired revenue, deposits or $100M-plus expected net synergies are booked as already earned.","Cash after acquisition excludes discretionary repurchases, principal repayments and new warehouse financing. It is not a forecast parent cash balance or distributable cash.","No EPS forecast: SBC, buybacks, treasury shares, acquisition accounting and bank capital need a complete ownership bridge."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-20"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":705000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":742845000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":790000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":825000000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. 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8 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance supersedes August earnings guidance. Base Q3 revenue $705M, EBITDA $118.5M and FY2026 revenue $2.765B/EBITDA $485M are calibrated to that update.","Platform revenue and risk-loss decomposition are desk assumptions. Reported ARPAM is annualized and cannot be multiplied by closing members as if all were present for the whole quarter.","MyPay origination volume is not revenue or owned loan assets. The model separately estimates expected losses; historical noncash product-obligation fair-value adjustments are not treated as recurring new cash earnings.","CFO excludes loan purchases net of repayments classified in investing. Cash after funding also deducts that loan investment and both purchased and internally developed software.","Chime remains a fintech using bank partners pending closing. Member deposits at partners and restricted cash are not Chime corporate cash. 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