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Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Demand visibility is substantial, but RPO and headline liquidity are not sufficient measures of capital efficiency. The key is usable cloud capacity, margin after customer incentives, and cash collected after prepaid funding is worked off.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Compare delivered capacity, core/GAAP reconciliations, customer-loan offsets and construction spending each quarter."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056357/cbrs-20260630.htm","title":"June accounts, OpenAI loan and RPO","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","title":"Q2 results and core-metric reconciliation/outlook","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://investors.cerebras.ai/news-releases/news-release-details/cerebras-and-compute-nordic-finland-announce-new-165-mw-ai-data","title":"September 1 phased Finland capacity agreement","retrieved":"2026-09-20"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026033143/cerebras-sx1a2.htm","title":"IPO prospectus quarterly financial history","retrieved":"2026-09-20"}],"business":{"drivers":["Hardware acceptance and utilized inference cloud capacity","Core-to-GAAP customer warrants and pass-through costs","Construction cash and services used to repay customer funding"],"description":"Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI systems and sells hardware and cloud inference services. Its business is shifting toward contracted compute capacity, with significant construction, equipment and customer-concentration exposure. Customer warrants reduce GAAP revenue, and some OpenAI service billings repay previously funded infrastructure debt."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-12 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-10"},"identity":{"cik":2021728,"sic":"3674","name":"Cerebras Systems Inc.","symbol":"CBRS","cluster":"Semis & compute","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["OpenAI and other major-customer concentration.","Construction availability, acceptance and utilization.","Customer-warrant dilution and contra-revenue.","Noncash debt settlement and restricted funding.","Fixed infrastructure commitments versus changing inference demand."],"title":"Inference growth through the warrant and infrastructure cash bridge","question":"Can contracted AI demand scale into profitable cloud activity without overstating revenue quality or available cash?","economics":"Q2 GAAP revenue was $180.1M versus core revenue $209.9M: $14.5M pass-through revenue is removed and $44.3M customer-warrant amortization added back. Core operating loss was $33.6M versus GAAP $477.2M, heavily affected by IPO compensation. H1 CFO was negative $47.5M and PP&E cash purchases $548.9M. June cash and investments totaled $7.922B, excluding $684.7M restricted cash. The OpenAI working-capital loan balance was $918.2M after $86.3M noncash service credits; $736.0M is current. FY2026 core revenue guidance is $880-890M. September 1 added a phased Finland capacity agreement; 165 MW is contracted capacity, not currently billable revenue.","change_note":"Added separate core/GAAP bridges, noncash OpenAI service settlement and September Finland capacity context.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Q3 core-to-GAAP reconciliation","watch":"Check $214-216M core revenue against warrants, pass-through and cash collections.","timing":"Next results; date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Infrastructure delivery","watch":"Verify commissioned and utilized capacity, including phased Finland service orders.","timing":"Each contracted-capacity update","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Customer loan and capital program","watch":"Reconcile noncash billings, remaining principal, restricted balances and cash PP&E.","timing":"Each quarterly filing","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Concentrated customers and ambitious delivery schedules can leave costly capacity underused. Core revenue excludes substantial shareholder incentives, and service-funded loan repayment separates accounting revenue from new cash receipts.","limitations":["Core metrics exclude customer-warrant amortization, pass-through revenue/cost and other adjustments. They are not GAAP revenue or cash receipts. Forecast reconciliation amounts are desk sensitivities.","Core cloud activity is modeled directly in dollar capacity rather than inventing undisclosed delivered MW, token pricing or utilization history. Contracted capacity, usable capacity and billable activity remain distinct.","June RPO $25.4B includes long-duration commitments and some pass-through amounts. Its 22% expected recognition within 24 months is not an annual run rate; no automatic conversion of all RPO into sales.","The $918.244M OpenAI loan can be repaid with service and other noncash credits. Forecast offsets exhaust that June principal only; contractual cash repayment and future draws are not predicted.","Cash-before-construction is an operating funding proxy, not a full GAAP cash-flow forecast. It excludes new financing, restricted-cash releases, debt principal paid in cash and acquisitions; those require a separate funding decision.","June cash $6.742B and investments $1.179B exclude $684.680M restricted cash. The undrawn $850M revolver is contingent capacity, not present cash.","September Finland agreement covers phased 165 MW with initial 50 MW construction. Regional investment estimates belong to the project context, not a disclosed Cerebras capex commitment or immediate revenue.","No complete EPS, share-class, warrant dilution or valuation bridge. Eight quarterly income histories include directly reported IPO-prospectus comparatives; unavailable earlier cash flows stay unknown."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-20"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: GAAP revenue proxy ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":180000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: GAAP revenue proxy ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":233783000.00000003},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: GAAP revenue proxy ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":410000000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-20","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: GAAP revenue proxy ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":610000000.0}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: GAAP revenue proxy ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":0,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances.","operating_model":{"cells":[{"id":"h1_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported revenue","value":373.516,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_core_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported core revenue","value":401.217,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_core_hardware","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported core hardware","value":193.703,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_core_cloud","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported core cloud","value":207.514,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_warrant_amort","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported warrant amort","value":46.315,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_pass_through","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported pass through","value":18.614,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_core_op","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported core op","value":-37.125,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_operating_income","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported operating income","value":-492.27,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_cash_before_capex","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported cash before capex","value":-47.488,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_capex","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported capex","value":548.873,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_loan_offsets","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions.","label":"Reported loan offsets","value":86.327,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056186/cbrsannouncesfinancialresu.htm","source_date":"2026-08-12"},{"id":"h1_cash_after_capex","case":"shared","kind":"derived","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"Reported cash flow, excludes financing and purchases of treasury securities.","label":"H1 CFO less PP&E","value":-596.3610000000001,"period":"H1 2026","formula":{"op":"subtract","refs":["h1_cash_before_capex","h1_capex"]},"source_url":null,"source_date":null},{"id":"cash","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions. 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